blonde poker forum

£50 freezeout, 8k starting stack 49 players starting we are currently down to 4 tables and we have a monster stack of 29k after having nut flush paid off in two spots, stealing a few pots with position and turning a straight flush.  All in all it was going well. 

We pick up QQ UTG + 2, blinds are 100/200 we make it a standard 3 x BB.  raised in MP - player in question appears tight but can be donkeyish at times.  He is one of those players who either has it or he's going to do his bollocks making you believe he has it.  He has about 16k and is 2nd CL at table.  Button pushes all in for 3.2k total.  Tricky player who bets only with premium hands but appears to be tilting after donking off around 9k with a Tikay style mis read.  so back to me. 

I am concerned about the original re-raise, player in question has been very innactive recently taking down a decent post and shooting from 5kish to 16k after having the NF paid off. 

My process is that he has re-raised with AA, KK, QQ (??) JJ or AKs, QQ very unlikely.  I can't see him reraising me with a pair > TT, although there have been a few comments made and your sure he wants to be in a pot with you, simply to try and outplay you.  Now thinking about the button push for not a lot I start to narrow the hand selection down for original re-raiser.  I am more inclined to believe he has the goods.   But QQ is obviously a massive hand, how do you play this?

Can I seriously pass it? Should I want to pass it giving my chip stack and the potential of getting an opponent all-in and taking two playre out and adding significant chips to my stack?

Thoughs please?

if your read is "My process is that he has re-raised with AA, KK, QQ (??) JJ or AKs, QQ very unlikely.  I can't see him reraising me with a pair > TT"

then its an easy fold

if "although there have been a few comments made and your sure he wants to be in a pot with you, simply to try and outplay you" then why reraise preflop surely he would want to outplay you on a board


QQ is a hand too many people say "its queens you cant passs queens"

you can pass queens too often i have commited chips with queens when i have known the oppo has AA KK or AK

A tricky one with QQ, I agree. Been here a few times myself. It's funny how folding JJ pre-flop is ten times easier than folding QQ!!!

I think this one is as much about the players - did you get any reads on them?

By reads, I mean physical tells at the table

I'm all in here.

If he has KK or AA then good luck to him.

If he calls and your lose the hand, then you still have about 13K, which is plenty to work with. 
If he calls and you win, you then have enough to coast to the final table.

I'm probably flat calling the guys all in, and if the raiser from MP with 16k moves in over the top of that, im folding as im prob beat.

You have then found out for 3k and u still have 25-26k.

Wish this was the line I had taken. I slightly pushed my cards over the line before snapping them back and moving in.  Insta call from original re-raiser.  He had AA.

Boooooooo!!!

The all in man turned over AQ - bigger boo. It was a raggy flop also. 

What did MP re raise to?

This is an important detail for me. As if he has re raised to anything between 1901 and 3200 then it is a flat call as the re raiser CANNOT re raise you and you will see the flop and assess from there.

He raised to 1600.

TY

tricky situation against that type of player.

I probably move all in

guys GB has said that his read on teh oppo was that he wouldnt make the raise with less than "AA, KK, QQ (??) JJ or AKs, QQ very unlikely.  I can't see him reraising me with a pair > TT"

so basically your hoping he has JJ

now i can rarely put a player on that narrow a range but if i had narrowed the range down too those few hands how can you get your chips in the middle

he has him on 5 hands (one unlikey)
2 have you as a huge dog
1 your a big favourite
1 is a coin flip
and the other is unlikey the same hand

so getting all in against such a narrow range is -EV

putting someone on that narrow range is hard but once you have done it then its a must fold

personally i would have put a guy on such a narrow range and would of more  than likey got all my chips in the middle

The one part of my game that has been spot on recently is my reads on other players and my ability to put them on a hand.  The one part where I am lacking just now is getting a bit of luck in a race.  I sooooooo wanted to pass the QQ, but I had things going through my mind like what if I have this wrong what is he's not got AA or KK what if we're in a race with AK - then I was thinking about the button if he has any sort of A thats one less out for original re-raiser. 

Even although I had my oppo on a very tight range which worked out to be spot on, I couldn't pass.  Thats obviously a leak in my game, its an easy pass if I am holding something like like AT, AJ, AQ, I think i even pass AK here.  Perhaps I try and see a flop with AK and pass if I miss.  But I guess i took the line that ih he had AA or KK then good luck to him.

no point in making great reads if you dont trust the result and act on it

as i said hard to laydown queens but if you are reading him for AA KK QQ JJ or AK then its a stupid move

even if he has AK do you really want to be racing when you are in such a comanding postion against a player that can bring you back to average

take on the small stacks in the races and take on the big stacks when you have AA or KK and read them for QQ or AK

QQ against the quoted range is a coin flip mainly due to the fact that there are so many more combinations of ak then the pairs.




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 359,583,840  games     0.031 secs    11,599,478,709  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    47.366%     45.79%    01.58%         164644764      5675268.00   { QQ }
Hand 1:    52.634%     51.06%    01.58%         183588540      5675268.00   { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


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I disagree. This pot could give us HUGE chip lead - taking out 2nd CL

EVEN if we loose, we are only down to 12k - plenty of chips

I fail to see how you can get this strong a read of the information given in the post. My read on the info given is that it is 50:50 he has a hand or not. Given that info and stack sizes, I'm taking my chances here all the time against this player. The ONE thing i am not doing is to flat call and put myself in a position of "weather to call or not" if he moves over the top.

I am trying to avoid difficult situations so I cannot "second guess" myself.

But what I will say is that if I was in this situation, I would have ALOT more info than given in the OP (and I am sure the origional poster also had alot more info).

That's only helpful if all the hands in the range call the shove, chances are you only get looked up by AA/KK

One of the things I find really interesting on this forum is the way in which people are completely incapable of analysing a situation outside of whether their tournament life will be on the line or not. So in this hand, we should be shoving in the 80 BBs with QQ to a tiny 3 - bet and 'if he has AA or KK good luck to him' because we will still have a 'workable stack behind'. But I would bet a lot of money on the fact that if we had 15.5k to start the hand and a shove put our zomg tournament LIIIIFE at risk the consensus would be to 'call the 3.2k and see' or pass.

What chips we will have behind if we shove and lose is absolutely irrelevant. Shoving is awful:

- Traditionally, a 3 - bet to 1600 over an early position raise to 600 is super, duper strong;
- The parts of his range that are AQo, AQs, JJ, 1010 all fold when you shove;
- I guess he may also get tournament life syndrome and fold AKo, AKs a lot;
- But he never folds AA or KK;

This is a tough spot because either calling or folding is somewhat acceptable - and arguments can be made for both. Not because shoving is a viable option.

I am also still trying to work out why the op would think that the opponent would NOT reraise to 1600 with a pair > TT.  :dontask:

I don't think my opponent in this hand would be so ballsy to attempt this.  When he is short he can play reckless but when he has an above average stack from experience he plays very tight and plays premium hands till he has a monster then he loosens up and becomes LAG and trys taking players out with shorter stacks.  Having this information to hand made it a helluva lot easy for me to put him on a very tight range.  The problem I have is although I knew my read was good I found myself unable to pass QQ because i let a little doubt set in and thought what if he does have AK maybe we could be reason.

Initially I thought to myself going into the break why didn't you pass - show the table the QQ and show you are capable of making big big passes. 
Then my line of thought was maybe he should have called the 2400 and hoped to peel off a flop and hit the set, but what if we face another raise?

Would another option have been to maybe put in a another bet of say 8k and see if we get him to pass AKs /AKo/JJ and if he shoes on us then we can fold?  Or would we?  because we have put almost half of his stack in the middle so is it viable for us to pass with whats in the middle and what we would have to call?

<

Sorry, I see now what is confusing me.

You typed > TT when you meant < TT.

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If you fold, don't show. You're giving away information which is not neccesary. And showing people you are willing to make big passes is an invitation to be 3 - bet and floated all day long.

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A re - raise to 8k achieves nothing that flatcalling the 3.2k won't. Both actions will appear very strong - and he will probably shove AA, KK in both situations. Given that this is live he may call AQs+; defo calling QQ - 1010.

You may be faced with a tough decision on the flop, turn or river if you call and he calls. But the more I think about it the more I think it is the best option.

Suerely this deep it cant be optimal to shove? Id have thought you can peel one and re-evaluate.

In hindsight I would agree. 

But say the flop comes down 9c 2h 3s and we are now OOP for the rest of the hand whats our move?

Alex (and others), do you not re raise a PFR from c/l when you are in 2nd c/l ?

Reason being that c/l will not want to tangle with you with QQ or less ?

I have used this move effectively in the past to steal a PFR from c/l

This deep the facts of who is cl or not cl are irrelevant. All that matters is that we are 80BBs effective deep and have raised standard from EP and been 3 - bet really small by a player who we do not believe will ever do it with a wide range.

As I have said many, many times before - the importance in analysis is identifying what line carries the greatest expectation. Twaddle about what position we are in in a tournament or our tournament life or whatever probably will mean nothing in the vast majority of situations.

Check. Take it from there.

I am prolly being a hindsight warrior but i do think flatting gets us the most chips in the long run.

Remember that every single option is open to you at every stage of this hand. Just because you have a big hand on a v.good flop doesnt mean that we are not always in control of our actions/ are forced to adopt a standardised "correct" play. Deep down you know he doesnt have less than Jacks here but AK makes up a huge chunk of his range. You know the player, will he fire 2 barrels or is he like most and fires the flop but gives up the turn? Usually in this instance i lead flop and if raised am pretty happy releasing to a standard honest tag.

 ::)

Geez Peace Mr. "I know Im behind but its suited so Im gonna gamble" and then go on to horribly outdraw them.  Shove immediately as you cant pass a hand and you're running so good you're probably 120% to ping the case Q

 rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

Its becoming tedious now.  Your the only person at that table and out of everyone else you have told the story too that didn't think that was the right call.

You even missed out a few key facts when telling John the story.

No I didnt, I told it exact, thats not the point though, you've stuck your chips in blatantly knowing you were behind loads of times the last few weeks and you've been running fairly hot with them

Twice,twice against you.  LMAO!!

I tend to always go with my gut in situations like this.  I remember when I played GUKPY Plymouth last year, first big comp I bought in myself for (ie no satellite seat).  And I busted out with KK vs AA in the first level.  I felt sick, not because of the money, but because I knew the guy had aces but I still didn't pass.  I knew preflop and didn't pass, and I knew on the flop, and still thought moving all in was a good option....

A month later, I was playing a £50 stt in my local.  I make it 400 to play with KK, BB makes it 2000 to play...I know he has aces.  I think for ages then pass and show the kings face up, and he shows me AA.  Now why can I make a lay down like that for 50 quid, but not for 1000??  Probably because it stung so much at Plymouth.  It's a good lesson to learn, and I'm sure next time, you might just go with your gut.

You knew because you've played against him before?