blonde poker forum

Its pretty marginal - you are about a 40% against him if his range is any broadway.  What is the average chip stack?  What is the payout in the comp?

seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.

seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.

I don't know a MTT pro that would pass here.

seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.

I think I could argue a good case for folding if it was The WSOP Main Event bubble and I was chipped. They might understand the mitigating circumstances. But not in a $25 donkament.

The decision is either right or wrong, the money involved is irrelevant.

Posted by: doubleup

No I don't think that's so. I think that's cash-game speak.

Your decisions in tournaments need to be based on situations. Here I would ask, "Does the context of the situation mean that it's a worthwhile gamble to take on?"

This pot is worth 250k. Because winning it will get you HU in the tournament it's a +EV gamble in an everyday small stakes MTT.

But if I was chipped up on the bubble at the WSOP it would be an easy fold. I don't really care what pokerstove says because the calculation...'big chips + bubble + WSOP + $$ = don't call all-in for tournament if behind' is one I'm comfortable with.

what do you mean winning it gets you HU?

Mantis can read into the future.

I tossed a coin 4 times it was 2 each and on the 5th throw I lost the coin :(

Mantis can read into the future.

I tossed a coin 4 times it was 2 each and on the 5th throw I lost the coin :(

12 clean outs? with an additional 3?..what deck do you play with and can I get one?

Seriously though..this might be a clear call but I honest to God can't see it...so someone indeed please poker stove this for me.

what do you mean winning it gets you HU?

Actually there is only 8 clean outs if we are being pedantic, the ten of clubs figures in a lot of hands of the opponents range, which means the nine of clubs gives them a straight flush (in fact they could already have it). No way is an ace on the turn a likely out, not only could it two pair the guy up but it gives a straight to all the hands with a ten in it. I think we have a flush draw only a lot of time in this spot.

This is a bad call, so many times you are dominated. Now if the three flush was lower and uncoordindated, and a much bigger kicker was in your hand, maybe its a call.

Ok here's the answer Smiley

First off is calling +Ev?

Well, I would suggest your equity against your opponent's range here is likely to be between 40 and 50% depending on his levels of nittiness. Very optimistic to suggest you are ever better here.

I'm going to average this out to 45% in the face of an unknown but you could tweak this if you have more info on your opponent.

So with 35k in the pot he shoves for 100k and you figure your equity to be 45%. To be +EV you need 43% ( 42.55% exactly) equity...so on the face of it this is a very marginal +EV play. Double up gave a big range of hands earlier that our hand would be 43% against, which would make the call even more marginal.

OK...so now I'm going to  turn to the bearded mathematician whose reputation has hopefully not been completely undermined by the assortment of sex toys to be found in his glove compartment, Mr Sklansky.

He once said famously, although I paraphrase, that you should only turn down +EV in a tournament if you can find a higher EV spot soon after. Your stack size is 25 BBs and with this spot you are playing out an almost neutral/marginally +EV spot. If you are an average player you should instantly take the gamble as you won't find better spots.

If you are half decent though, I would suggest you can find a variety of other spots to get your chips in as a much bigger favourite / find areas to pick up chips uncontested. I would take those personally. The only reason I could possibly think for a good player to take this gamble is that he is horrible at playing a 25BB stack but awesome at playing a 50BB stack.

OR you disagree with your equity in the hand being 45%. If you think it is higher and can put a persuasive case for this fair play. Otherwise, why take marginal gambles for your 25 BB stack? Super easy to find a hand where you have 60% equity against the majority of players imo.

I agree with Barry. Fold if you are decent. You need a very small edge over the field to find better positions.

Ok here's the answer :)

First off is calling +Ev?

Well, I would suggest your equity against your opponent's range here is likely to be between 40 and 50% depending on his levels of nittiness. Very optimistic to suggest you are ever better here.

I'm going to average this out to 45% in the face of an unknown but you could tweak this if you have more info on your opponent.

So with 35k in the pot he shoves for 100k and you figure your equity to be 45%. To be +EV you need 43% ( 42.55% exactly) equity...so on the face of it this is a very marginal +EV play. Double up gave a big range of hands earlier that our hand would be 43% against, which would make the call even more marginal.

OK...so now I'm going to  turn to the bearded mathematician whose reputation has hopefully not been completely undermined by the assortment of sex toys to be found in his glove compartment, Mr Sklansky.

He once said famously, although I paraphrase, that you should only turn down +EV in a tournament if you can find a higher EV spot soon after. Your stack size is 25 BBs and with this spot you are playing out an almost neutral/marginally +EV spot. If you are an average player you should instantly take the gamble as you won't find better spots.

If you are half decent though, I would suggest you can find a variety of other spots to get your chips in as a much bigger favourite / find areas to pick up chips uncontested. I would take those personally. The only reason I could possibly think for a good player to take this gamble is that he is horrible at playing a 25BB stack but awesome at playing a 50BB stack.

OR you disagree with your equity in the hand being 45%. If you think it is higher and can put a persuasive case for this fair play. Otherwise, why take marginal gambles for your 25 BB stack? Super easy to find a hand where you have 60% equity against the majority of players imo.

I agree with Barry. Fold if you are decent. You need a very small edge over the field to find better positions.

Ok here's the answer :)

First off is calling +Ev?

Well, I would suggest your equity against your opponent's range here is likely to be between 40 and 50% depending on his levels of nittiness. Very optimistic to suggest you are ever better here.

I'm going to average this out to 45% in the face of an unknown but you could tweak this if you have more info on your opponent.

So with 35k in the pot he shoves for 100k and you figure your equity to be 45%. To be +EV you need 43% ( 42.55% exactly) equity...so on the face of it this is a very marginal +EV play. Double up gave a big range of hands earlier that our hand would be 43% against, which would make the call even more marginal.

OK...so now I'm going to  turn to the bearded mathematician whose reputation has hopefully not been completely undermined by the assortment of sex toys to be found in his glove compartment, Mr Sklansky.

He once said famously, although I paraphrase, that you should only turn down +EV in a tournament if you can find a higher EV spot soon after. Your stack size is 25 BBs and with this spot you are playing out an almost neutral/marginally +EV spot. If you are an average player you should instantly take the gamble as you won't find better spots.

If you are half decent though, I would suggest you can find a variety of other spots to get your chips in as a much bigger favourite / find areas to pick up chips uncontested. I would take those personally. The only reason I could possibly think for a good player to take this gamble is that he is horrible at playing a 25BB stack but awesome at playing a 50BB stack.

OR you disagree with your equity in the hand being 45%. If you think it is higher and can put a persuasive case for this fair play. Otherwise, why take marginal gambles for your 25 BB stack? Super easy to find a hand where you have 60% equity against the majority of players imo.

I agree with Barry. Fold if you are decent. You need a very small edge over the field to find better positions.

doubleup did provide a range that he considered suitable and went on to discount any insane bluff from that range. However, any all-in is not an insane bluff. It is a great bluff. Yes, of course we would all like to push first. This is because the bet is very unlikely to be called and we win the pot.

So it absolutely stands to reason that if the pusher knows his bet will almost never be called his range of hands is going to be on the weaker side of this range rather than the stronger side. In addition, because the pusher feels that we are on the nick all the while and made a point of telling us this, his weak range must also include bluffs. He would love to push first as well....and he has.

I promise his range is not going to include flushes, straights, sets or two pairs. He will always CRAI with these hands to teach us a lesson for pummeling him. Please be aware he doesn't know we have the ace of clubs. So if we slim his range down to the realistic pushing hands that actually relate to his 100k all-in shove we will be much closer to his actual range.

Now if you factor into the equation that this pot probably locks-up the top-heavy tourney for you we can now make a more insightful decision. I would say that people who see his 100k shove as a strong made hand should welcome this opportunity to gamble because the edge you feel you have is not related to what is actually happening.

......or two pairs. He will always CRAI with these hands to teach us a lesson for pummeling him.

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

He pushes 2pr and an unlikely set every time here.

He also pushes any other made but vulnerable hand

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

whole basis of this argument.

The size and pressure of the bet should not lead you to consider he may have flopped the nuts.

I really am puzzled.  This was a call for value earlier in the thread and now its a call because you're a superduper player.  Why can't you use your superduper skills by folding and using your still above average stack?  Or are you only superduper with 3 times average?

I really am puzzled.  This was a call for value earlier in the thread and now its a call because you're a superduper player.  Why can't you use your superduper skills by folding and using your still above average stack?  Or are you only superduper with 3 times average?

relative stack size now is worth more

pish

play about with this if you don't believe me

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

wow. callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall.

im talking about a skilled MTT players ability to use his stack at this point of the tournament, which is widely recognised as the easiest place to get chips with which to dominate the field.

wow. callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall.

This is so not an insta call lol

There are obvious benefits to having a 50 BB stack but just saying "oh gamble for a big stack" is nonsensical. Otherwise just open shove every hand of the comp till you are 3x average or busto. EV is still the primary factor to consider.

To call here and be +EV you need 43%. I personally would want, nah, i KNOW I can get my chips in at 55 - 60% average equity if I am gonna play out a 50 BB pot. Yes sometimes this will still mean I play out a flip AK v TT or something where I am behind but I will rarely be allin dominated and I feel I can find many spots to get my chips in dominaitng or steal, re-steal / attack weak spots where I can pick up chips uncontested which will pad the numbers considerably.

This is not something that 25 or 50BBs will make a considerable difference to.

Convince me I should take a very thin marginal gamble for my stack. And it is thin. If you think not, throw me a likely weighted range where you have 50% equity or so in this hand. That's what you need imo. Because even getting your remaining chips in on an absolute 50/50 is superior value-wise to calling in this spot despite the overlay.

this is plain wrong m8. why is a 50/50 gonna be better than here? Equity is identical.


(http://www.donkey-village.org.uk/images/gallery/brian_blessed_kojak.gif)

NO!


all the skilled MTT players I know are excellent with 25BB stacks at the end of comps too. Obviously having a 50BB is pretty much twice as good as a 25BB stack lol but you have a stack plenty capable of re-stealing and squeezing which is the best way to pick up chips at this point of the comp. Re-steal once successfully, just once, let's say you pick up 5 BBs for that...and keep up yourself from being blinded away and you can now play out a pot where you can be 41% to win, are less likely to be allin, which is of superior value to playing out this pot here.

its not, its a LOT more valuable at this stage of the comp to have a huge stack. Its not a 2+2=4 matter.DUCY.

So now we are calling off our entire stack (which is a fairly decent size) knowing we are likely to be behind and probably not quite getting the pot-odds to make the call..because we are soo great and will dominate the tourney fro here on in assuming we win this pot?

I am a shit MTT player and more than willing to admit it but I never thought I was as bad as to not comprehend the above. So now it's good to get our entire chip stack in the middle because "we are good players and this is "the easiest stage of the tournament to get more chips" (I am assuming this isn't the easiest stage to get more chips because people donk off their entire stacks making erm...winning calls?)

again..it might be a call but I don't see the insta part.

Convince me I should take a very thin marginal gamble for my stack. And it is thin. If you think not, throw me a likely weighted range where you have 50% equity or so in this hand. That's what you need imo. Because even getting your remaining chips in on an absolute 50/50 is superior value-wise to calling in this spot despite the overlay.

this is plain wrong m8. why is a 50/50 gonna be better than here? Equity is almost identical...

I read somewhere that if you're not getting your chips in behind you're not getting them in enough and I'm growing to like this.

While I recognise it is more favourable to get your chips in as say a 55% favourite rather than the slight underdog, the % chance you will win the pot isn't the only factor to consider. Even if you fold now and get the chance to play as the 55% favourite in the very next hand you will be playing for almost 20% LESS chips. So the stakes have changed dramatically. And if that chance doesn't present itself in the next five hands your stack is going to drop by another 8% and so on. Of course such a chance may not present itself at all.

It's short-handed at the table and the average is like 14bb so there's going to be a lot of pushing pre-flop. Are you going to get chances to re-steal soon and will your move be successful? I don't know. Maybe. But you will have less room for error/variance with the smaller stack of course.

The important thing to recognise is that calling here, even as an underdog, may be your best chance to win the whole tournament. It wont give you the best shot at winning an individual pot, but it may be the call that wins you the event. I read somewhere that if you're not getting your chips in behind you're not getting them in enough and I'm growing to like this.

Must be the day hell freezes because Lloyd, Flushy and Mantis agree.