Advice Required

[MANTIS01]

If you fold the  was always hitting the turn. When the poker gods witness an act of blasphemy they WILL react accordingly. If you fold here they will never allow you to win another MTT.

I think I could argue a good case for folding if it was The WSOP Main Event bubble and I was chipped. They might understand the mitigating circumstances. But not in a $25 donkament.

[boldie]

seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.

12 clean outs? with an additional 3?..what deck do you play with and can I get one?

Seriously though..this might be a clear call but I honest to God can't see it...so someone indeed please poker stove this for me.

[doubleup]

I think I could argue a good case for folding if it was The WSOP Main Event bubble and I was chipped. They might understand the mitigating circumstances. But not in a $25 donkament.

The decision is either right or wrong, the money involved is irrelevant.

FWIW my view is that in these situations, you should be mainly considering 2 things

Can I force a mistake from my opponent?

Is the pot big enough in relation to my stack to justify a gamble?

I think the answer to the first one is no, as op is behind anything other than a completely insane bluff.  So his hand is likely to be something like:
 TT,9c9d,9c9h,9c9s,AdTd,AhTh,AsTs,KdJd,KhJh,KsJs,KdTd,KhTh,KsTs,QdJd,QhJh,QsJs,JdTd,JhTh,JsTs,AdJh,
AdJs,AhJd,AhJs,AsJd,AsJh,AdTc,AdTh,AdTs,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,AsTc,AsTd,AsTh,KdQh,KdQs,KhQd,KhQs,KsQd,
KsQh,KdJh,KdJs,KhJd,KhJs,KsJd,KsJh,KdTc,KdTh,KdTs,KhTc,KhTd,KhTs,KsTc,KsTd,KsTh,QdJh,QdJs,QhJd,QhJs,
QsJd,QsJh,QdTc,QdTh,QdTs,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,QsTc,QsTd,QsTh,Qd9c,Qh9c,Qs9c,JdTc,JdTh,JdTs,JhTc,JhTd,
JhTs,JsTc,JsTd,JsTh,Jd9c,Jh9c,Js9c


The big draw is about 43% to win against that range.  If that is the case the pot size makes the call pretty marginal, so I think the answer to the second question is no as well.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: doubleup

The decision is either right or wrong, the money involved is irrelevant.

No I don't think that's so. I think that's cash-game speak.

Your decisions in tournaments need to be based on situations. Here I would ask, "Does the context of the situation mean that it's a worthwhile gamble to take on?"

This pot is worth 250k. Because winning it will get you HU in the tournament it's a +EV gamble in an everyday small stakes MTT.

But if I was chipped up on the bubble at the WSOP it would be an easy fold. I don't really care what pokerstove says because the calculation...'big chips + bubble + WSOP + $$ = don't call all-in for tournament if behind' is one I'm comfortable with.

[boldie]

Posted by: doubleup

The decision is either right or wrong, the money involved is irrelevant.

No I don't think that's so. I think that's cash-game speak.

Your decisions in tournaments need to be based on situations. Here I would ask, "Does the context of the situation mean that it's a worthwhile gamble to take on?"

This pot is worth 250k. Because winning it will get you HU in the tournament it's a +EV gamble in an everyday small stakes MTT.

But if I was chipped up on the bubble at the WSOP it would be an easy fold. I don't really care what pokerstove says because the calculation...'big chips + bubble + WSOP + $$ = don't call all-in for tournament if behind' is one I'm comfortable with.

what do you mean winning it gets you HU?

[GlasgowBandit]

Posted by: doubleup

The decision is either right or wrong, the money involved is irrelevant.

No I don't think that's so. I think that's cash-game speak.

Your decisions in tournaments need to be based on situations. Here I would ask, "Does the context of the situation mean that it's a worthwhile gamble to take on?"

This pot is worth 250k. Because winning it will get you HU in the tournament it's a +EV gamble in an everyday small stakes MTT.

But if I was chipped up on the bubble at the WSOP it would be an easy fold. I don't really care what pokerstove says because the calculation...'big chips + bubble + WSOP + $$ = don't call all-in for tournament if behind' is one I'm comfortable with.

what do you mean winning it gets you HU?

Mantis can read into the future.

I tossed a coin 4 times it was 2 each and on the 5th throw I lost the coin

[boldie]

Posted by: doubleup

The decision is either right or wrong, the money involved is irrelevant.

No I don't think that's so. I think that's cash-game speak.

Your decisions in tournaments need to be based on situations. Here I would ask, "Does the context of the situation mean that it's a worthwhile gamble to take on?"

This pot is worth 250k. Because winning it will get you HU in the tournament it's a +EV gamble in an everyday small stakes MTT.

But if I was chipped up on the bubble at the WSOP it would be an easy fold. I don't really care what pokerstove says because the calculation...'big chips + bubble + WSOP + $$ = don't call all-in for tournament if behind' is one I'm comfortable with.

what do you mean winning it gets you HU?

Mantis can read into the future.

I tossed a coin 4 times it was 2 each and on the 5th throw I lost the coin

lmao

[Geo the Sarge]

Posted by: doubleup

The decision is either right or wrong, the money involved is irrelevant.

No I don't think that's so. I think that's cash-game speak.

Your decisions in tournaments need to be based on situations. Here I would ask, "Does the context of the situation mean that it's a worthwhile gamble to take on?"

This pot is worth 250k. Because winning it will get you HU in the tournament it's a +EV gamble in an everyday small stakes MTT.

But if I was chipped up on the bubble at the WSOP it would be an easy fold. I don't really care what pokerstove says because the calculation...'big chips + bubble + WSOP + $$ = don't call all-in for tournament if behind' is one I'm comfortable with.

what do you mean winning it gets you HU?

Mantis can read into the future.

I tossed a coin 4 times it was 2 each and on the 5th throw I lost the coin

 


Geo

[DaveShoelace]

seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.

12 clean outs? with an additional 3?..what deck do you play with and can I get one?

Seriously though..this might be a clear call but I honest to God can't see it...so someone indeed please poker stove this for me.

Actually there is only 8 clean outs if we are being pedantic, the ten of clubs figures in a lot of hands of the opponents range, which means the nine of clubs gives them a straight flush (in fact they could already have it). No way is an ace on the turn a likely out, not only could it two pair the guy up but it gives a straight to all the hands with a ten in it. I think we have a flush draw only a lot of time in this spot.

This is a bad call, so many times you are dominated. Now if the three flush was lower and uncoordindated, and a much bigger kicker was in your hand, maybe its a call.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: boldie

what do you mean winning it gets you HU?

I will have 225k of the 990k in play with 12 left. That's a quarter of all the chips. I will have 222k when the average is 82k. It is 6-handed and 3 players don't make the final.

No, I can't read the future, but I have the confidence to expect HU from here. If others don't, then hey presto!...an instant improvement to your tournament game.

[Dewi_cool]

seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.

12 clean outs? with an additional 3?..what deck do you play with and can I get one?

Seriously though..this might be a clear call but I honest to God can't see it...so someone indeed please poker stove this for me.

Actually there is only 8 clean outs if we are being pedantic, the ten of clubs figures in a lot of hands of the opponents range, which means the nine of clubs gives them a straight flush (in fact they could already have it). No way is an ace on the turn a likely out, not only could it two pair the guy up but it gives a straight to all the hands with a ten in it. I think we have a flush draw only a lot of time in this spot.

This is a bad call, so many times you are dominated. Now if the three flush was lower and uncoordindated, and a much bigger kicker was in your hand, maybe its a call.

sensible post

[MANTIS01]

It is not sensible to suggest our oppo may already have the straight flush and that's why he's pushing into us for 100k.

He's pushing into us for 100k because he really really doesn't want the call. And to be fair it's unlikely he's going to get one with such a powerful move. So I would say figuring he has a bare 10, medium one-club pair, or it's just a really good stop-and-go bluff are much more productive options to think about before considering he may already have the straight flush.

I think the cleanliness of your outs would depend on which powder you use. I use Daz, so would be very confident of having at least 13.

[AlexMartin]

i seriously give up.

[JungleCat03]

Ok here's the answer

First off is calling +Ev?

Well, I would suggest your equity against your opponent's range here is likely to be between 40 and 50% depending on his levels of nittiness. Very optimistic to suggest you are ever better here.

I'm going to average this out to 45% in the face of an unknown but you could tweak this if you have more info on your opponent.

So with 35k in the pot he shoves for 100k and you figure your equity to be 45%. To be +EV you need 43% ( 42.55% exactly) equity...so on the face of it this is a very marginal +EV play. Double up gave a big range of hands earlier that our hand would be 43% against, which would make the call even more marginal.

OK...so now I'm going to  turn to the bearded mathematician whose reputation has hopefully not been completely undermined by the assortment of sex toys to be found in his glove compartment, Mr Sklansky.

He once said famously, although I paraphrase, that you should only turn down +EV in a tournament if you can find a higher EV spot soon after. Your stack size is 25 BBs and with this spot you are playing out an almost neutral/marginally +EV spot. If you are an average player you should instantly take the gamble as you won't find better spots.

If you are half decent though, I would suggest you can find a variety of other spots to get your chips in as a much bigger favourite / find areas to pick up chips uncontested. I would take those personally. The only reason I could possibly think for a good player to take this gamble is that he is horrible at playing a 25BB stack but awesome at playing a 50BB stack.

OR you disagree with your equity in the hand being 45%. If you think it is higher and can put a persuasive case for this fair play. Otherwise, why take marginal gambles for your 25 BB stack? Super easy to find a hand where you have 60% equity against the majority of players imo.

I agree with Barry. Fold if you are decent. You need a very small edge over the field to find better positions.

[JungleCat03]

Ok here's the answer Smiley

First off is calling +Ev?

Well, I would suggest your equity against your opponent's range here is likely to be between 40 and 50% depending on his levels of nittiness. Very optimistic to suggest you are ever better here.

I'm going to average this out to 45% in the face of an unknown but you could tweak this if you have more info on your opponent.

So with 35k in the pot he shoves for 100k and you figure your equity to be 45%. To be +EV you need 43% ( 42.55% exactly) equity...so on the face of it this is a very marginal +EV play. Double up gave a big range of hands earlier that our hand would be 43% against, which would make the call even more marginal.

OK...so now I'm going to  turn to the bearded mathematician whose reputation has hopefully not been completely undermined by the assortment of sex toys to be found in his glove compartment, Mr Sklansky.

He once said famously, although I paraphrase, that you should only turn down +EV in a tournament if you can find a higher EV spot soon after. Your stack size is 25 BBs and with this spot you are playing out an almost neutral/marginally +EV spot. If you are an average player you should instantly take the gamble as you won't find better spots.

If you are half decent though, I would suggest you can find a variety of other spots to get your chips in as a much bigger favourite / find areas to pick up chips uncontested. I would take those personally. The only reason I could possibly think for a good player to take this gamble is that he is horrible at playing a 25BB stack but awesome at playing a 50BB stack.

OR you disagree with your equity in the hand being 45%. If you think it is higher and can put a persuasive case for this fair play. Otherwise, why take marginal gambles for your 25 BB stack? Super easy to find a hand where you have 60% equity against the majority of players imo.

I agree with Barry. Fold if you are decent. You need a very small edge over the field to find better positions.

Oops i see its 112k not 100k to call. This slightly reduces the +EV of the call. We now need 43.25% equity to be +EV but it doesn't change things massively...