blonde poker forum

Saw this hand on another forum from one of my current opponents. There were mixed views on there, so I wondered what thoughts on here were...



Do u make 2nd barrel in this situation?
Villian is 43/12 wtsd 27 fold to cbet 50%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($222.50)
SB ($205.70)
BB ($200)
UTG ($619.47)
Hero ($201.40)
CO ($525.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jc Tc
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, UTG calls $7.

Flop: ($21) Kc 5s 8d (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14, UTG calls $14.

Turn: ($49) 7c (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ???

Well you can either continue and your essentially semi-bluffing with the gutshot or take the free card which is unlikely going to improve your hand.

He has tons of money and seems unlikely to give up whatever draw/weak holding he has without you having to put in a big bet which is dangerous in case he has 78 (which I think is his most likely holding) as he may be check raising.

I would probably take the free card and be prepared to possibly fire again on the river if he checks again.

I should also add he turned flush draw. c and p didn't work properly

Ok that changes things a bit.

Given that it looks like he has 3x the max buy in for the table I am assuming that this guy isn't a total mug, I will fire a 2nd bullet if he has an Aggression Factor of less than 1 and I have not seen him be too frisky, otherwise I will take the free card that I bought with the flop bet.

whats the villians aggression factor?

$30 bet is the only analysis necessary i think Snoops :)

$32

$29.40 so he has nice round numbers left.

Check. His range is probably skewed to mid-pocket pairs and suited connectors and the turn improves all these hands.

I bet here 29.99 sounds good.

His fold cbet % of 50 is really big and he is float all kinds of rubbish here. Alot of ace highs etc.

Huh? His fold to cbet is 50%, which is fairly average imo (little lower than most donks). He calls on a dry board out of position after limping utg, so normally this is a terrible spot to double barrel imo. Yeah, its ever worse now as i just saw he was a 43/12. Basically, he has a king here or a middling connected hand here a lot. The 7 on turn smacks a lot of his range, giving pair+str8 draws. Looks like unneccesary pot inflation to me when we bet turn. If we are deeper, obv we pot it on turn to allow us to bet huge on riv if we hit plus put more pressure on. 100BB deep v a winning fish id rather take my free 25% shot at busting him. Please put a 9 on the river!

Yeah got myself confused there, 50% fold to cbet is quite small.

You have 18 outs with fold equity if you bet. Deffo 2nd barrel.

stop bunking school and go resit that maths class ;)

18?  Surely a K is a masive possibility?

this is why you fire again lol.....


***** Pacific Hand History for Game 170551661 *****
$2/$4 Blinds No Limit Hold'em - *** 07 28 20:13:14 2008
Table San Cristobal El Morro (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: val972 ( $182.91 )
Seat 5: gr1msby ( $404 )
Seat 7: Fabbo81 ( $538.9 )
Seat 9: Labsen ( $424.2 )
Seat 10: RiQ112 ( $398.6 )
Labsen posts small blind [$2].
RiQ112 posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to gr1msby [ Kc Jc ]
val972 calls [$4].
gr1msby raises [$18].
Fabbo81 folds.
Labsen folds.
RiQ112 folds.
val972 calls [$14].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5d, 2d, 3c ]
val972 bets [$4].
gr1msby raises [$30].
val972 calls [$26].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qc ]
val972 checks.
gr1msby bets [$96].
val972 calls [$96].
** Dealing River ** [ Qs ]
val972 checks.
gr1msby checks.
** Summary **
val972 shows [ 9d 7d ].
gr1msby shows [ Kc Jc ].
gr1msby collected [$290].

Yes, nice value bet on the turn.

its a good flop for him to float since its reasonably dry and the turn didnt bring much either so i'd barrel it again.  most likely he folds his air a whole ton, or he ships it in reasonably light here so call (or sometimes he has you crushed but you have tons of outs to the nuts).  i'd bet $37 to make the call slightly easier if he shoves (getting just under 2/1).  i deffos prefer a larger bet to a smaller one here, like over 33 for sure.

lol, I WILL NOT CAVE.

 rotflmfao