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snoopy1239
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« on: July 23, 2008, 11:49:11 PM » |
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Saw this hand on another forum from one of my current opponents. There were mixed views on there, so I wondered what thoughts on here were... Do u make 2nd barrel in this situation? Villian is 43/12 wtsd 27 fold to cbet 50% Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Button ($222.50) SB ($205.70) BB ($200) UTG ($619.47) Hero ($201.40) CO ($525.70) Preflop: Hero is MP with   UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, UTG calls $7. Flop: ($21)    (2 players) UTG checks, Hero bets $14, UTG calls $14. Turn: ($49)  (2 players) UTG checks, Hero  |
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« Last Edit: July 24, 2008, 01:16:36 AM by snoopy1239 »
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Grier78
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2008, 01:07:09 AM » |
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Well you can either continue and your essentially semi-bluffing with the gutshot or take the free card which is unlikely going to improve your hand.
He has tons of money and seems unlikely to give up whatever draw/weak holding he has without you having to put in a big bet which is dangerous in case he has 78 (which I think is his most likely holding) as he may be check raising.
I would probably take the free card and be prepared to possibly fire again on the river if he checks again.
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snoopy1239
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2008, 01:16:08 AM » |
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Well you can either continue and your essentially semi-bluffing with the gutshot or take the free card which is unlikely going to improve your hand.
He has tons of money and seems unlikely to give up whatever draw/weak holding he has without you having to put in a big bet which is dangerous in case he has 78 (which I think is his most likely holding) as he may be check raising.
I would probably take the free card and be prepared to possibly fire again on the river if he checks again.
I should also add he turned flush draw. c and p didn't work properly |
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Grier78
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2008, 01:28:44 AM » |
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Well you can either continue and your essentially semi-bluffing with the gutshot or take the free card which is unlikely going to improve your hand.
He has tons of money and seems unlikely to give up whatever draw/weak holding he has without you having to put in a big bet which is dangerous in case he has 78 (which I think is his most likely holding) as he may be check raising.
I would probably take the free card and be prepared to possibly fire again on the river if he checks again.
I should also add he turned flush draw. c and p didn't work properly Ok that changes things a bit. Given that it looks like he has 3x the max buy in for the table I am assuming that this guy isn't a total mug, I will fire a 2nd bullet if he has an Aggression Factor of less than 1 and I have not seen him be too frisky, otherwise I will take the free card that I bought with the flop bet. |
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UpTheMariners
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2008, 01:43:34 AM » |
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whats the villians aggression factor?
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Sunday8pm
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2008, 08:52:40 AM » |
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$30 bet is the only analysis necessary i think Snoops  |
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Horneris
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2008, 12:42:46 PM » |
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$32
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maldini32
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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2008, 02:35:00 PM » |
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$29.40 so he has nice round numbers left.
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NoflopsHomer
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2008, 02:51:22 PM » |
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Check. His range is probably skewed to mid-pocket pairs and suited connectors and the turn improves all these hands.
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Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
Hero Member
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Posts: 10040
Go Ducks!
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2008, 03:25:04 PM » |
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I bet here 29.99 sounds good.
His fold cbet % of 50 is really big and he is float all kinds of rubbish here. Alot of ace highs etc.
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AlexMartin
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2008, 04:47:41 PM » |
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Huh? His fold to cbet is 50%, which is fairly average imo (little lower than most donks). He calls on a dry board out of position after limping utg, so normally this is a terrible spot to double barrel imo. Yeah, its ever worse now as i just saw he was a 43/12. Basically, he has a king here or a middling connected hand here a lot. The 7 on turn smacks a lot of his range, giving pair+str8 draws. Looks like unneccesary pot inflation to me when we bet turn. If we are deeper, obv we pot it on turn to allow us to bet huge on riv if we hit plus put more pressure on. 100BB deep v a winning fish id rather take my free 25% shot at busting him. Please put a 9 on the river!
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Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10040
Go Ducks!
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2008, 04:51:13 PM » |
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Yeah got myself confused there, 50% fold to cbet is quite small.
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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2008, 06:37:59 PM » |
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You have 18 outs with fold equity if you bet. Deffo 2nd barrel.
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<3 ENSUING
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
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AlexMartin
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2008, 07:34:42 PM » |
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You have 18 outs with fold equity if you bet. Deffo 2nd barrel.
stop bunking school and go resit that maths class  |
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TheChipPrince
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2008, 09:16:53 PM » |
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You have 18 outs with fold equity if you bet. Deffo 2nd barrel.
18? Surely a K is a masive possibility? |
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The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
RIP- TheChipPrince - $17,165
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