blonde poker forum

PokerStars Game #23695965074: Tournament #131675771, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2009/01/08 13:43:13 ET
Table '131675771 29' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: vtr82w (2303 in chips)
Seat 2: hitthehole (2915 in chips)
Seat 3: Seb-musashi (3630 in chips)
Seat 4: missmuffer (1965 in chips)
Seat 5: NotProBono (8335 in chips)
Seat 7: dadaboss (3065 in chips)
Seat 8: Rugieee (2272 in chips)
Seat 9: crzysavage (2515 in chips)
hitthehole: posts small blind 25
Seb-musashi: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hitthehole [8s 8h]
missmuffer: folds
NotProBono: folds
dadaboss: folds
Rugieee: raises 80 to 130
crzysavage: calls 130
vtr82w: folds
hitthehole: calls 105
Seb-musashi: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [9s 6c 8c]
hitthehole: checks
Seb-musashi: checks
Rugieee: checks
crzysavage: checks
*** TURN *** [9s 6c 8c] [5s]
Dzjengis is connected
hitthehole: bets 320
Seb-musashi: folds
Rugieee: calls 320
crzysavage: folds
*** RIVER *** [9s 6c 8c 5s] [Qh]
hitthehole:????



no notes on opponents, early ish in the 6pm $109 on stars. thoughts on flop and turn play?

Lead fold.

FYP

Can't see how he doesn't bet either TJ, x7, or overs and a FD after raising pre on this flop tbh. I guess he has something like busted spades, or AQsp. I deffo lead here, and prob call a jam. Otherwise he's prob just completely flopped it all with T7cl or something, and we move onto the next comp!

Does anyone else here lead the flop?

i thought about leading flop but i thoiught that it looks really strong on such a connected board into 4 opponents, plan was to cr to repp 7x, cc etc

Surely him raising on a bluff is super sprewy though? 7x would make up a decent proportion of our range after we bet turn and river.

Weak lead to 3bet shove vs overpair?

No-one is folding an overpair to just one bet anyway and most ppl aren't going to c-bet without a hand here 4-way.

flop prolly lead to build pot v abundant dead wood in early stages and try and get stacks in. Obv ur going for CR which is prolly better plan actually.

River i most deffo check call. No value in betting as villain wont call w worse on a 1 card straight board with 4 players to the flop. Its tough for him to have a seven given he didnt freeze out flushdraws on turn although 7 makes up big chunk of range. Busted FD's make up the rest of his range, so check call.

Maybe you should rely on your first instincts Alex cos I think leading is the better line. The flop is draw heavy so business is virtually guaranteed and if your intention is to build a pot then leading into the raiser is just going to be the way to do that. All manner of raises could come in from pairs and draws, people love gambling early doors, and the raiser can pump his A-K cos he know aggression is the key to poker. Abs agree that river is c-call, sit back and admire your play when A-4 green bets pot.

If you lead river he can only shove with hands that beat you, he won't be bluff shoving, i am guessing JT got there on the end?

i check called river.  thought id maybe make it look like i had some missed fds in my range to get him to bluff some of his missed fds. yeah he had J10

I also take the check call line on the river, flushy why are we betting the river to fold to a raise if we check call this won't cost us much more than to lead  and we get to showdown whereas this way we aren't going to make anymore money out the hand if he folds and if he raises on the bluff then we are screwed by taking that line ?I'm pretty sure most 2pr or worse hands also check it down here hoping they're good so i just cant see reasoning for lead folding.I don't see any worse hands that are just flatting our lead on the river 2prs fold imo especially the way we've played the hand

I also 100% bet the flop there are loads of draws we could have so may get raised from opp with 2pr or strong draws and there are also too many scare cards on the turn that slow us down.

I don't lead flop. If i'm leading river i'm calling, but more often than not I just check call anyway.

The other big advantage of c-calling the river is you may not go broke vs this hand, whereas if you lead you certainly will.

Lead/folding is fine. You lose less vs a straight which will usually bet more than we will on the river if we check.

Your lead may be less than his vb if you check, true, but it may not be. Anyway you will never win the pot with this line.

Huh? This makes no sense as an argument against the lead/fold, how does check/calling necessarily win you the pot? This isn't a spot where some sort of move will ever win us the pot, we're either beat or not and if the villain has the straight, he isn't folding.

The river is a horrible spot to bluff because 7x makes up a good chunk of our range. If we're checking, it should be because we're checking to fold. And we never go broke by lead/folding, because we fold...and by leading occasionally we get value by some missed draw which makes top pair on the river or some funky played overpair or two pair.

We also lose less vs 7x which might not see much value in raising knowing that we fold all hands without a 7 now but jam J-T and probs T-7. However the villain, holding a 7 or better, will most likely bet more than we would if we had lead the river.

If the villain bets 3/4 to full pot will you still call?

I think this hand becomes a lot more fascinating when we DO have 7x and get jammed on the river...

How do you go broke if you lead fold??

More likely to go broke when you check and he jams

I disagree here, we can check call here for value against many opponents as:

Hands he calls a VB with that we beat < hands he bets the river with that we beat (bluffs)


Having said that, if we check and he bets more than half the pot it becomes a tough call.

Leading the river allows us to block bet to some extent and we can happily fold if we get raised.

Both the check call and the bet fold are decent river strategies here, and with it being so early in the tourney, its hard to decide with option yields the best results against the opponent.  I lean towards the check call on this occasion, as I feel that missed draws make up more of the opponents range than any hands with a 7 (IMO, a 7 would have bet the turn).

How are you doing anything other than betting for information if you lead fold?? I agree with sweetman that his bluff range is a good deal higher than his calling range on this board. Also he can't think a jam gets called here given the action/board early in tournament so will prob v-bet much lower than a jam with the nutz.

you also make nothing v bluffs which is gonna be at least 50% of his range. Obv ur not calling a massive bet in this spot as there is no need. Not intending to level myself and call a shove.

I also bet/fold.

Given that board it is highly unlikely he is going to raise without the straight here.

If you bet and he raises then you can feel quite comfortable in the fact that you're beat. If he does raise as a bluff then hats off to the guy, but against most players I'd feel happy laying this down.

If you opt to check/call then the bet you'll be calling is probably going to be a lot bigger than the one you made yourself.

lol Alex people don't bluff these spots, ever!

C'mon James. That just isn't so. Why are people on Blonde so determined to give their oppos so much credit by saying they NEVER make a mistake. James doesn't bluff these spots...so NOBODY bluffs these spots is lol imo. If you lead the river and your oppo folds you find out he had a f/d or air. Well done. How much money you made? If you lead and he jams you find out he has 10-J. Well done. How much money you made? You only make money if he calls, what will be a pretty significant bet, with a worse hand. That is pretty unlikely imo...and would be a mistake. But this guy NEVER makes mistakes...cos he NEVER bluffs if you check, remember.

Flushy,

If villain has air/missed draw on the river he will correctly realise he can only win the pot with a bluff.

Are you seriously saying players don't ever bluff in this spot? In that case, I suppose players dont ever float on the turn either..........

Unless he is a moron he will realise he can't win the hand at all, i dont remember reading that the guy was a moron in the OP's post.

It's 25/50 and the guy calls 320 from 2.1k chasing a straight draw, on a double suited board, and can't bluff the river if he doesn't hit. He also raised ghey 130 pre. Yeah, I'd say he's a moron. Why give him due credit for being anthing else? Even if you just guessed he was you'd prob be right.

Because it looks like we have a hand so is not a bad idea to call 320 because lots of mugs stack the river.

I dont bet, and I dont call if he bets... river play in these spots seem to be (incorrectly or not) very face up.. and I cant see them calling with a hand you beat very often, and I cant see them betting with a hand that you beat very often




Its not that they NEVER bluff, but it has to be a tendancy that is prevalent in a fair % of players in order to justify calling. Sure, sometimes people will bluff the river, and will steal the pot, but similarly, you cant justify calling on the basis that a smalll % of poker players might or might not bluff in these spots. Its the frequency of which an action might occur that should be the important factor.

qft

**sigh**

rly? maybe im out of touch. i think check call and let him value cut himself/bluff is deffo bett than other options though. 

You think? Exactly half the 8 outs he's chasing make a flush...and would be an action killer anyway. Thats very obvious for this guy to see. Is he gonna be so confident about this calling turn to stack river strat when the flush hits? The action would prob be bet call if the  Qs dropped on the river and you lead, so that strat would have big obvious holes in it. He's just chasing his draw without thought imo. That draw could be clubs, a straight, and I wouldn't be shocked to see hands like A-K in there as well. So if this guy is in fact just bad he would readily bet a lot of his missed hands without thought when you checked to him on the river. Hands he would've folded if you bet.

Posted by: totalise

That was a good post cos I never thought about not calling after checking. Like I said, if he's bad no doubt he can bet just cos you checked and he missed. But what if he's a good player? That good player can call the turn in this situation knowing any one of 30 cards complete a very obvious draw. Floating the turn to represent almost any card would be the actions of a good player. So obv he will be calling the turn to bluff almost 100% of the time with his e.g. 2-2. Man, that would be good poker and you would feel all pwned and dirty if you c-fold. So while that c-fold option looked good at first I think there's too many different types of players who can and will bluff for lots of different reasons to think about c-folding to one bet. Unless that bet is all-in I suppose. If the guy v-bets good on the river there's no shame in paying him imo.

Intersting thread... my initial thought was bet/fold.... but I just cant see any worse hands we get value from by betting....  check/calling is really player dependant I think.. Not every missed fd will bet here, and I would think the majority of villians betting range on the river is for value.. You might get taken off the best hand occasionally but without a read I think check/fold is best

Think Totalise got it nailed in his response