blonde poker forum

Villain is a regular, pretty decent TAG. We have some history. Recently i just called a small 4b ip w A9s, checked back a A93 board, then bet the J turn and shoved the 2 river to get called by QQ. He views me as decent LAG. Turn spot is interesting in my opinion. Thoughts?



***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 464817907 *****
NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Friday, January 09, 15:41:48 GMT 2009
Table Oxygen 114 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 5
Seat 1: Caimera ( $207.45 )
Seat 2: athos2 ( $0 )
Seat 3: JammyJenny ( $195.20 )
Seat 4: Aidfingers ( $328.10 )
Seat 5: smo11ek ( $204.05 )
Seat 6: pasatempos3 ( $301.65 )
JammyJenny posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JammyJenny [ Qs, Qd ]
Aidfingers raises to [$6]
smo11ek folds
pasatempos3 calls [$6]
Caimera folds
JammyJenny raises to [$16]
Aidfingers calls [$10]
pasatempos3 calls [$10]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, Td, 5h ]
JammyJenny bets [$36]
Aidfingers calls [$36]
pasatempos3 folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
JammyJenny checks
Aidfingers bets [$40]

I hate these kind of hands.

I guess jamming you're only getting called if you're beat.

Folding I don't like either cos he doesn't have to have you beat here, he could be on a draw and using the scare card. The low bet could just be him repping.

I don't like calling either cos you're gonna be in the same spot on the river, only maybe letting draws get there.

I think it's a call the bet and go with your gut on the river :-S

Just shove.

As this is a line he should believe you'd take with a fd or 98 (no room to 3 bet AI on turn) he should be calling with any pair.  I like just betting the turn tho and I'd expect to be shoved on by his whole range.

with my limited knowledge,I'd put him on either pp f/d or ak So with that in mind I'd shove it in

^^that sounds reasonable...

I love his bet size.  It's one of those spots that suits a TAG player.  It could be a bluff, or it could be the nuts.  

I have no idea what I'd do here.  

What does his bet size say about him Alex what usual spots does he lead the turn for a 1/3 of the pot?
It seems to me like he is giving you room to hang yourself here by hoping you shove OTT.
These sort of spots rack my brain sometimes and mostly its entirley player dependent for me, I hate to just call, it feels week, but the c/r could be intepretated in 2 ways for me it either looks like a monster or spewey.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him hold a monster like ATh in this spot. 

i think you should of led the turn but as played it does look like he is feeling you out after your check.After his spewy call with QQ previously i would be inclined not to show him to much respect here,it feels like he is on a flush draw to me AK AQ AJhh maybe JJ 99 88 after his QQ hand could be possible i guess, so it would be a reluctant re-raise all in...

AA KK u would think either pre or on the flop being a tag he would of re-raised,if it is 9Thh TJhh TAhh then that would go in the notes as after your show of strength on the flop AThh etc from a decent tag would be re-raising surely :)

i'd say your check has confused him as much as it has you with his probe type bet on the turn and i think your ahead of to much his of range to fold...

check call the turn check call river is a option here but i'd prefer the all in on the turn in this situation..

for the thinkers among u, how often do u think 10's are in his range?

id like to see a turn bet here, whats his fold to 3bet %? if they fold high % a ten is almost never going to be in his range unless he has TT. a weak turn bet like this often means somin like a mid pair trying to get to showdown quite cheap (is he a showdown monkey?).

so u think b/c is better than craia or does c/c c/c trump everything?

Hes a TAG, average showdown %, but highish wSD%.

Im not sure when you examine combinatronics, whether its best just to crai now, as given villain is a thinking opponents, he will ALWAYS bluff this turn, or to c/c, c/c to maybe extract from bluffs. Also, im concerned that villain knows his FE will be very low if he fires turn and has to put the rest in on river, he knows his likelihood of getting called has gone up a tonne. FWIW, i think there are like next to no tens in his range, he knows i am forced to play faceup 3 way to semi-wet board and the only tens he calls with are suited heart tens which he will ship on the flop to force FE v a narrow range. IMO.

I think it is a fold. He has obviously gay bet the turn to induce a shove from you!!

Combinatronics FTMFW YO


Sigh,someone fix this please  ;)

i wouldnt fold this. call, c/c would be my line

+1

Because of the history, possible draws, and potential for smaller pocket pairs, I'm reluctantly shovelling this one in and clenching my buttocks. I think betting the turn is +ve, as is raising slightly more preflop.

am i missing something?

hes only bet coz you checked. imo you bet the turn he folds.

for me this is a shove.  any decent raise leaves you pretty committed anyway.

shove if hes got the ten.  suck it up and reload. and bet the turn next time

How do you get that info. Or is it how you assume he views you?. 

Thats a very small squeeze preflop mate, which does really open up his range a bit and we could easily add 77 and 55 to his possible holdings for the boat. If you squeezed bigger the only time he has a ten in his hand is when he has quads, not that I'm saying 'protect your hand' preflop of course because its a cash game, not a MTT. So I think he could have a ten a lot here.

Why such a small squeeze pre flop btw? Is it to keep him in with a dominated hand or were you expecting one of the two villains to do something crazy in response based on some spewy play you did earlier?

I like betting the turn, but as played I don't think we can fold just yet and if you shove you are probably foldiing out the hands we beat. I call and reassess the river, at which point I probably hit the queen of hearts and pay off his quads.

I fundamentally disagree with Barry here.

It's going to be the queen of clubs.

Hi Alex - thanks for posting this one btw.

Interesting to see people's responses as this sort of spot is one that I've found myself on both sides of so often playing against other regs and if he's a decent thinking player I'm not sure we can find a right answer here. I disagree with you that 10's aren't a part of his range though. As Barry just said your reraise pre was so small that he's calling with any hand he's opened with, which should include a fair amount of tens.

When you bet $36 on the flop he called with pasatempo behind him so I don't think he's capable of some weird float with nothing like a good reg might do in a heads up pot against one another. However, he could be betting flush draws/89s type hands as I'm guessing you're fairly lag. I think we have to call here and reasses the river.

Edit: I think a response to a river shove is a fold more often than not. Imo he should know we have a strong hand when we call $40 on the turn and our range is quite defined to hands we're likely to call a shove on the river which makes bluffing a bad spot for him with his missed draws. + I expect he never bets JJ,88,99 either on blank rivers

yeah the presence of the fish kinda makes this easier imo. Villain knows i have generally got a big pp if i cbet this flop. With that in mind he cannot call with naked tens with so little behind, so his range is as you say 89s/sets and heart draws. When i check the turn its such an awesome bluffcard for villain i decided to ship to get him to call with flushdraws incorrectly, seeing as if i call im gonna check call river anyway and he might check back missed draws.

Result: i shipped, he folded.

you not think you made a mistake on the turn alex? i think its a clear bet here, bet fold given any further resistance, by not betting u ended in a pretty meh spot

nah, i posted this for analysis coz i thought it was an interesting spot. I had a plan when the turn dropped to go for a crai as villain is good enough to rep this card and it doesnt figure to be in his range often. I HATE bet folding the turn, that would be a mistake imo and akin to betting for information. Its a high variance spot, but i think crai turn if i figure i have the best hand is superior to c/c and then deal with a possible river bet on a heart/7/J/A/K board where we are guessing and villain can dictate whether or not to put more in.

I agree with Shoelace in that I think calling the turn is better than shoving as we're folding out most hand we beat.  How many hands can he call a shove with that we beat?  If we are prepared to stack off if he does have us beat then is calling the turning and checking to let him bluff make us more the times we have the best hand?

pot is too big imo and as i stated if we think we have best hand we should get it in now rather than letting a river drop and having an even tougher decision. i expect 77-99 to level himself sometimes and hero call and big flushdraws to call.

yeah I'd normally just shovel it in on the turn if i checked there.. but his betsizing ($40 in a pot of $120, laying you 4/1) would make me contemplate 2 things:

a) hes trying to induce
b) hes betting small on the turn in order to set up a credible-sized river bluff, essentially laying you a price to draw to your overs/gutters/whatever other filth you might have in your range that can call the turn but fold to a river shove.

comparing this to a bet of $70/$80 which tends to suggest a bet that could be more for protection/value/bluffing one street and giving up.

if its a), then a shove leaves you in dire straights but its not really much different to c/c the river, and if its b) then that means hes probably shoving close to 100% of his range on the river... so given his bet-size on the turn, I'd just call and let him do whatever he needs to do on the river, and snap call a bet on any river card. If he had bet >$60, I'd happily send it in.

All this is aside from the fact that you should be barelling this turn a high % of the time, calling if he shoves, and preflop seems a bit wierd unless its just incorrect parsing of the HH

I also think that if he does have a draw, its a pretty bad card to "bluff" at, so hes more likely to check back draws that can outdraw you on the river, which is another reason why I dont like the c/r and obviously another reason why I like betting the turn. Obviously he sometimes bets his draws here, but I think the frequency with which he checks them is a fair bit higher then the times he bets them.. and betting this turn gives great balance overall.

Did you take anything from the fact that he called you down with QQ on the A9xxx board when you had A9??

Nice post!