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Title: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 02:59:30 AM 15 or so left in this tourney, 5 get paid, I'm in top 3 or 4 currently with decent stack, I think he has big pair but I have a massive draw. What should I do? Take the coin flip or play it more cautiously?
Game #7267618433: £1500 GTD (ID9205301) £30+£3 - Hold'em NL (100/200) - 2009/02/16 - 23:33:20 (UK) Table "9205301 - 3" Seat 1 is the button. Seat 1: Anthov56p (2315 in chips) Seat 2: Deni27086 (4110 in chips) Seat 4: Ibra17083 (9355 in chips) Seat 5: Lauri12zc (5460 in chips) Seat 7: Woodsey (8840 in chips) Seat 8: Simpso77 (4315 in chips) Seat 10: NeroDuck (6365 in chips) Deni27086: posts small blind 100 Ibra17083: posts big blind 200 ----- HOLE CARDS ----- dealt to Woodsey [Ac Kc] Lauri12zc: folds Woodsey: raises to 555 Simpso77: folds NeroDuck: raises to 1200 Anthov56p: folds Deni27086: folds Ibra17083: folds Woodsey: calls 645 ----- FLOP ----- [7c Ts Jc] Woodsey: checks NeroDuck: bets 1200 Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: da_poker_monkey on February 17, 2009, 06:04:50 AM As a losing player who never wins anything i'd get it all in - Second is last and all that, so prolly best thing to do would be opposite of that ;djinn;
Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Longy on February 17, 2009, 08:23:12 AM All in, we are virtually flipping against aces here with a nice overlay in the pot and some fold equity against other ak and other random stuff in his range, so shoving is deffo +ev.
I suppose the only real question is that is calling more +ev, i don't like calling as a lot of our outs are action killers against his range and we might not get value when we hit and if we miss the turn it is an awkward spot with stack sizes. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: TheChipPrince on February 17, 2009, 09:38:33 AM if he turns over any hand but a set you should be happy, thats assuming he calls...
Can i ask why no 4-bet pre? Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: MC on February 17, 2009, 09:41:13 AM if he turns over any hand but a set you should be happy, thats assuming he calls... Can i ask why no 4-bet pre? Agree, shove preflop As played, shove on the flop Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: T_Mar on February 17, 2009, 10:18:24 AM Agree with Longy, Think you have to shove, he's pretty much betting his entire range on the flop once you checked and his small bet doesn't exactly scream strength so you likely have some FE ... you obv flipping against the top of his range but its unavoidable I think..
Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: kukushkin88 on February 17, 2009, 10:36:17 AM We're not flipping vs the top of his range, we're a 2-1 dog, it is a shove though.
Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: GreekStein on February 17, 2009, 01:09:26 PM Surprised to see the flat pre. Woulda 4-balled him personally.
As played, jam now. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 01:37:28 PM I'm totally against 4 betting/getting in all in PF when 40+ BB deep, especially when the small RR PF stinks of AA or KK, its just too much of a risk given the whole scenario, 20 BBs or less then I'm going all the way with it PF. I'm in a good spot in the tourney as it is, what would the rationale be for 4 betting/shoving PF?
Once again on the flop I know he has a big pair and I know I'm coin flipping. My question is really should I be risking it all here and now, or waiting for a less risky spot as I have enough chips to probably small ball my way to the money/take coin flips with the shorties. I'm thinking now on the flop I should have flat called the bet to catch a card and re-evaluate on the turn depending on the size of the bet I facing, my reason being I don't need to get into a gamble fest as I'm in a healthy situation in the tourney. Can you also give your reasons for your decisions in any further posts please. One final question. The same scenario in a 1k GUKPT event 25 left, 20 get paid do you do the same? As it turns out I CRAI on flop and lost, he had AA, no surprise.........meh Ta for your answers Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: daviebhoy on February 17, 2009, 02:23:35 PM What to do here is very player specific. If you think he is the type of player to 3-bet pre with only AA or KK then it is clearly a fold pre-flop with AKs.
Otherwise I agree with everyone else that generally this should be 4 bet pre-flop against most decent players. Flatting with AKs there isn't great. When he pushes all-in over your 4-bet you might get away from your hand without losing all your chips and when he doesn't have AA or KK you get to take the pot down uncontested a lot of the time. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: kukushkin88 on February 17, 2009, 02:37:15 PM You're only 32bb's (effective) preflop, I think the 4 bet jam is pretty standard.
As played even if you are sure he has AA it's +ev to get it in. We can't make that assumption though, he is just as likely to have KK and QQ, (I agree that his raise size represents a premium hand a very high proportion of the time) against KK and QQ we have approx 55% equity (AA 46%), we're getting a litlle more than 6/4 it's a clear shove for me. I think the added equity of a potentially dominating chip position makes it even more clear cut. People definitely over value being in a 'healthy' position in a tourney, it shouldn't stop you making +ev decisions. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 02:51:15 PM What to do here is very player specific. If you think he is the type of player to 3-bet pre with only AA or KK then it is clearly a fold pre-flop with AKs. Otherwise I agree with everyone else that generally this should be 4 bet pre-flop against most decent players. Flatting with AKs there isn't great. When he pushes all-in over your 4-bet you might get away from your hand without losing all your chips and when he doesn't have AA or KK you get to take the pot down uncontested a lot of the time. Interesting points. From my limited observation of him he seemed pretty tight, but even if he is the nittiest of nits I am never ever passing PF to such a small RR even if I 100% know he has AA and it doesn't matter what 2 cards I have either I'm gonna try and outflop him for his 30bbs. I do understand your thinking regarding the 4 betting now, I suppose your just asking him how serious he is about his hand. Even so isn't seeing a flop and trying to outflop him for his stack still a better and safer option? My reason for saying this is that it was such a small RR preflop that I had him on AA or KK anyway so a 4 bet doesn't give me any more info TBH. On the flop its obv a risk v reward situation, but my question is really as to whether I really need to get involved with my current decent stack. Like I said earlier, i'm leaning towards flat calling flop and re-evaluating on turn. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 02:55:24 PM You're only 32bb's (effective) preflop, I think the 4 bet jam is pretty standard. As played even if you are sure he has AA it's +ev to get it in. We can't make that assumption though, he is just as likely to have KK and QQ, (I agree that his raise size represents a premium hand a very high proportion of the time) against KK and QQ we have approx 55% equity (AA 46%), we're getting a litlle more than 6/4 it's a clear shove for me. I think the added equity of a potentially dominating chip position makes it even more clear cut. People definitely over value being in a 'healthy' position in a tourney, it shouldn't stop you making +ev decisions. What does everyone else think? I'm thinking we are too deep PF for a jam against such a small RR? Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: daviebhoy on February 17, 2009, 02:58:31 PM Interesting points. From my limited observation of him he seemed pretty tight, but even if he is the nittiest of nits I am never ever passing PF to such a small RR even if I 100% know he has AA and it doesn't matter what 2 cards I have either I'm gonna try and outflop him for his 30bbs. If you know he has AA pre-flop then why gamble your entire stack on Ace High ? Thats just crazy. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 03:11:00 PM Interesting points. From my limited observation of him he seemed pretty tight, but even if he is the nittiest of nits I am never ever passing PF to such a small RR even if I 100% know he has AA and it doesn't matter what 2 cards I have either I'm gonna try and outflop him for his 30bbs. If you know he has AA pre-flop then why gamble your entire stack on Ace High ? Thats just crazy. I'm not gambling PF I'm calling a nearl min RR to try and outflop him. I don't usually my stack in PF with AK here. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Royal Flush on February 17, 2009, 03:16:08 PM 4 betting into a 30BB stack is the perfect spot to be 4 betting, do you only ever 4 bet into commited stacks?????
The only reason not to 4 bet is you have him as you say at kk+ if thats the case then calling pre is horrible, you say you always peel the extra 3bb here even if you know he has AA, taking that prop will just send you skint, fold or 4 bet. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: daviebhoy on February 17, 2009, 03:24:08 PM The worst thing that can happen to you with AK v AA is that you hit the flop in some way. Clearly you didnt know he had AA pre-flop otherwise calling his min raise is wrong when you are a 9-1 dog.
On that flop you have to go broke. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 03:24:39 PM 4 betting into a 30BB stack is the perfect spot to be 4 betting, do you only ever 4 bet into commited stacks????? The only reason not to 4 bet is you have him as you say at kk+ if thats the case then calling pre is horrible, you say you always peel the extra 3bb here even if you know he has AA, taking that prop will just send you skint, fold or 4 bet. Is flat calling PF really that horrible? I've raised 555 and he's made it 1200 (645 more to me), surely with 30 bbs behind I gotta see a flop? If not then I'm a bigger donk than I thought lol. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: GreekStein on February 17, 2009, 04:14:34 PM 4 betting into a 30BB stack is the perfect spot to be 4 betting, do you only ever 4 bet into commited stacks????? The only reason not to 4 bet is you have him as you say at kk+ if thats the case then calling pre is horrible, you say you always peel the extra 3bb here even if you know he has AA, taking that prop will just send you skint, fold or 4 bet. Is flat calling PF really that horrible? I've raised 555 and he's made it 1200 (645 more to me), surely with 30 bbs behind I gotta see a flop? If not then I'm a bigger donk than I thought lol. With the exception of Sam Trickett I thought you were prob the next best cash player I played against in Notts even though you do hide your identity from me online and needle me to tilt my stack off! We can rule out donk here (just!-lol) but there is defo a small leak in your thinking here imo. If you put him on AA or KK then we should definitely be folding. It's so hard to outflop him and just as hard to then get paid. A nit aint going crazy on 10JQ or 3 club board and if he's holding kings and we flop an ace we don't get paid but as with what happened it's very easy for us to flop a piece/draw and stack off against villain. If you think his range is wider than this then just straight up 4-ball the bastard! Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: GreekStein on February 17, 2009, 04:15:47 PM 4 betting into a 30BB stack is the perfect spot to be 4 betting, do you only ever 4 bet into commited stacks????? The only reason not to 4 bet is you have him as you say at kk+ if thats the case then calling pre is horrible, you say you always peel the extra 3bb here even if you know he has AA, taking that prop will just send you skint, fold or 4 bet. Is flat calling PF really that horrible? I've raised 555 and he's made it 1200 (645 more to me), surely with 30 bbs behind I gotta see a flop? If not then I'm a bigger donk than I thought lol. With the exception of Sam (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1429) Trickett (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1429) I thought you were prob the next best cash player I played against in Notts even though you do hide your identity from me online and needle me to tilt my stack off! We can rule out donk here (just!-lol) but there is defo a small leak in your thinking here imo. If you put him on AA or KK then we should definitely be folding. It's so hard to outflop him and just as hard to then get paid. A nit aint going crazy on 10JQ or 3 club board and if he's holding kings and we flop an ace we don't get paid but as with what happened it's very easy for us to flop a piece/draw and stack off against villain. If you think his range is wider than this then just straight up 4-ball the bastard! Edit: With 30x I'm always 4-betting to get it in here. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 04:23:21 PM 4 betting into a 30BB stack is the perfect spot to be 4 betting, do you only ever 4 bet into commited stacks????? The only reason not to 4 bet is you have him as you say at kk+ if thats the case then calling pre is horrible, you say you always peel the extra 3bb here even if you know he has AA, taking that prop will just send you skint, fold or 4 bet. Is flat calling PF really that horrible? I've raised 555 and he's made it 1200 (645 more to me), surely with 30 bbs behind I gotta see a flop? If not then I'm a bigger donk than I thought lol. With the exception of Sam (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1429) Trickett (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1429) I thought you were prob the next best cash player I played against in Notts even though you do hide your identity from me online and needle me to tilt my stack off! We can rule out donk here (just!-lol) but there is defo a small leak in your thinking here imo. If you put him on AA or KK then we should definitely be folding. It's so hard to outflop him and just as hard to then get paid. A nit aint going crazy on 10JQ or 3 club board and if he's holding kings and we flop an ace we don't get paid but as with what happened it's very easy for us to flop a piece/draw and stack off against villain. If you think his range is wider than this then just straight up 4-ball the bastard! Edit: With 30x I'm always 4-betting to get it in here. Fair enough mate, I suppose you can never really be sure what someone is holding these days tbh unless you know their habits well enough. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Dewi_cool on February 17, 2009, 04:26:18 PM sigh
Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 04:26:49 PM Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Karabiner on February 17, 2009, 05:29:59 PM Can he not have AQ here and still bet this the same way ?
Personally I don't mind the flat pre., but I would shove after his turn bet. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 06:09:26 PM Can he not have AQ here and still bet this the same way ? Personally I don't mind the flat pre., but I would shove after his turn bet. That's what happened Ralph. I'm not too bothered what others think about the flat pre, I'd do it again we are deep enough IMO. Forget everything else, my real Q was do we want to coin flip it all here and now on the flop, we don't need to were are in a good position in the tourney, do we risk it all when I know its likely I can small ball my way to the money? So its a Q about the overall tourney situation as much as the hand itself. Here's the rest of the history. Game #7267618433: £1500 GTD (ID9205301) £30+£3 - Hold'em NL (100/200) - 2009/02/16 - 23:33:20 (UK) Table "9205301 - 3" Seat 1 is the button. Seat 1: Anthov56p (2315 in chips) Seat 2: Deni27086 (4110 in chips) Seat 4: Ibra17083 (9355 in chips) Seat 5: Lauri12zc (5460 in chips) Seat 7: Woodsey (8840 in chips) Seat 8: Simpso77 (4315 in chips) Seat 10: NeroDuck (6365 in chips) Deni27086: posts small blind 100 Ibra17083: posts big blind 200 ----- HOLE CARDS ----- dealt to sigh [Ac Kc] Lauri12zc: folds Woodsey: raises to 555 Simpso77: folds NeroDuck: raises to 1200 Anthov56p: folds Deni27086: folds Ibra17083: folds Woodsey: calls 645 ----- FLOP ----- [7c Ts Jc] Woodsey: checks NeroDuck: bets 1200 Woodsey: raises to 7640 and is all-in NeroDuck: is all-in 3965 Returned uncalled bets 2,475 to sigh ----- TURN ----- [7c Ts Jc][5d] ----- RIVER ----- [7c Ts Jc 5d][4d] ----- SHOW DOWN ----- Woodsey: shows [Ac Kc] (High Card Ace) NeroDuck: shows [As Ah] (A Pair of Aces, Jack high) NeroDuck collected 13030 from Main pot ----- SUMMARY ----- Total pot 13030 Main pot 13030 Rake 0 Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Longy on February 17, 2009, 07:45:26 PM Can he not have AQ here and still bet this the same way ? Personally I don't mind the flat pre., but I would shove after his turn bet. Stack sizes aren't good for this, his turn bet is most likely to be all in. Pot = 4800 by the turn and nero duck has 3965 back. Which is one of the reasons shoving the flop is superior and in fact shoving or folding pre is even better. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Woodsey on February 17, 2009, 08:41:25 PM Can he not have AQ here and still bet this the same way ? Personally I don't mind the flat pre., but I would shove after his turn bet. Stack sizes aren't good for this, his turn bet is most likely to be all in. Pot = 4800 by the turn and nero duck has 3965 back. Which is one of the reasons shoving the flop is superior and in fact shoving or folding pre is even better. Would your current position in the tourney ie 15 left, 5 get paid, currently top 3 or 4 affect your decision and why? or do you just play the hand for what it is? Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: Longy on February 17, 2009, 08:50:23 PM Can he not have AQ here and still bet this the same way ? Personally I don't mind the flat pre., but I would shove after his turn bet. Stack sizes aren't good for this, his turn bet is most likely to be all in. Pot = 4800 by the turn and nero duck has 3965 back. Which is one of the reasons shoving the flop is superior and in fact shoving or folding pre is even better. Would your current position in the tourney ie 15 left, 5 get paid, currently top 3 or 4 affect your decision and why? or do you just play the hand for what it is? If we were on the bubble it might affect my decision making process, but that is only cos the maths gets really skewed in those spots. Where busting is really bad for your overall tournament equity. In the above situation outlined with 15 left and 5 paid my decision would be unaffected apart from simply maximising the most chips i make on average from the hand. Basically 4bet shoving pre against most players and folding against nits. Title: Re: Massive Draw, what to do? Post by: MANTIS01 on February 17, 2009, 09:53:01 PM There are 15 left, you have A-Ks in a 7-handed game, and you are considering caution. The cautious approach is a strat you should be exploiting in others, not considering using yourself. Just calling the pre flop raise is fudging it really cos the strength of A-K is 10x pre. Going to the flop with A-K in this situation is cautious bad play imo. Thinking your oppo can only have A-A is cautious play. Thinking about folding for less risky alternatives is cautious play. Small ball to the money is a cautious strat. There is very little to think playing cautiously would be a good idea here. Is it ever a good idea? Running into Aces when running good in a tournament only adds weight to your thoughts of caution. But that is the work of the devil which seeks to tempt you from the righteous path.
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