blonde poker forum

Played the Broadway M/E at weekend and had one hand that changed my tourney really and would like some opinions on it please.  The history before has a major influence.

I have literally just moved table and sat next to a friend at the table, he tells me who the two fish are at the table.  I then watch a hand between one of them, a lady at the end of the table and Kier Ratcliffe, a young very decent player.  I limped after Kier limped UTG and another limper.  Lady raises to 600 with blinds at 50/100, Kier flat calls and I flat call for Imnplied with small pocket pair.  Board comes  Ks 8s 3h, Kier check calls 1500, turn brings  2d and Kier check calls 4000, river brings  5s, Kier shoves remaining 7k and lady snap calls.  Kier shows  Kh Qd and is good against  Kc Td saying "how can I fold the river"?

So my hand ....

I have 38k, lady has 33k and Kier has 26k.  Lady limps UTG, Kier limps at blinds 100/200 and I raise to 700 in SB with  Ad Td, with the aim to get rid of the BB and hopefully get heads up with lady but I know Kier is trying to play every pot with her.  Both flat call and flops comes  Ac Tc 4c, I check mainly due to pot control and to see how she reacts to the flop.  She bets 3500 into the pot of 2200 and Kier folds.  What should my play be?

You have seen that the lady leads with marginal and overvalues her hands, so I'd play this one just like your friend played his K-Q.

Are you saying check call all the way and re assess on the river?

If you raise would she give you business with a worse hand? The fact she has lead with marginal on the flop before, and continued to push with marginal on the turn means you should give her rope to push with marginal again. Her 3.5k bet into 2.2k suggests she's not uber strong and I think raising this bet only gets action from better hands. So c-calling seems the best way to make money when you're ahead vs this villain.

was this a bluff that turned out to be a value bet I wonder? If it was for value why not raise the turn before the scare card comes?


from the previous hand it would seem like a very definite yes.

In the previous hand villain was never c-raised, so we don't know. She lead flop/turn & called his half pot shove on the end. There is nothing there that tells us she would call a c-raise from a guy holding 38k. If she leads marginal then let her lead marginal imo.

This was my exact thinking and I actually put her on her hand such as top pair with maybe nut flush draw and a good flush draw as well.  I check called and the turn came  5d, I check and she bets 9k.

My play?

I believe Kier was trying a semi float representing the flush, but maybe im wrong and he thought his KQ was good all the way. 

On the turn I think it's a jam.

It's hard to put her on a hand but I can't put her on a flush here. If so gg - cooler.

That's as safe a turn as we were hoping to see and she might give us action with AK AQ AJ with one club/none if shes that much of a donk. We know she prob doesn't know any better than to pay us off far too light so I don't see this as a shove that is only getting action from better hands either.

If you want to gamble, call and jam the river if it isn't a club.

But generally I think jamming this turn is the way to go - I expect a big ace, with the flush draw : tilt shove your remaining stack a few times if she already has the flush.

Really bud?

I think the Jam is horrible.  Im sitting there with nearly double the average stack early doors in a comp with 190 BB and you wanna jam this???????

But her bet is 45 BB's, so in this hand your in deep already...

FYP btw

I actually misread the original post thinking you had 26k (Keir's stack) rather than your 38k though I don't think that would have been horrible when your hand is really underrepped coupled with the fact that villain is the table donk and played the last hand similarly with just top pair.

It's an interesting spot. The fact she's overbetting the pot on the flop may make me lead the turn for pot control if I'm not happy to stack off here. If she raises a lead here for something like 5200 it's more conceivable that we may be beat.

As played I still think her range is far too wide to consider we're not ahead. When checked to she could be betting any Ax(club) combo. Against your description of this particular villain I may actually raise here to get value from when she has the Old Ahrt Jc/ Qc type hand and will only lay down on a brick river. I think folding here is horrible and she's already bet 45x already so as ChipPrince says we're in deep already.

Maybe this thread has brought out what a fish I am.

Alternatively do what Paul Moyce would do...fold flop!

FYP

I dont think she has AX as she had already shwon she will raise with K10 off with 2 limpers and I believe she would have raised with AJ or AQ here.

I like the check call on the flop, and I too jam the turn. It's so likely we're up against Ax combo type hand with the club draw. If we're beat, so be it. You can't flat this bet, and we're only losing to a set / made flush, which although possible, don't make up enough of her range to consider passing imo...

Am I over valuing protecting a great stack at this early stage of the comp?

i think i play this one a little differently,

we can tell from the previous hand that she is genuinely awful. when she bets 3500 on the flop i play it in a way i wouldnt dream of against a decent player. I raise to 9000. If she has flopped a flush, although not definite, there is a good chance she will re-raise and give it away. Obviously if she shoves the flop you then have to pass (although the one hand you still beat is  Ahrt 4h)

if she flats then i think the flopped flush in unlikely i then lead out big on any blank turn (about 16k) to make the  Kc or  Qc pass. If she then jams, i think you have to make a crying call with a few outs against the flush (but there is also some small chance she could still have some kind of big draw such as  Kc  Qh or  Ahrt Jc or a hand like  Ahrt 4h)

so tough to play against these kind of players!

lol @ me getting to the end of the first page of this thread and getting ready to post about how flatting the flop bet makes the turn very difficult to play.

you'd never guess me and tom learned the game together!

I wouldn't be falling over myself to put a single club in her hands. Is she really the type of player to be overbetting the draw here? I doubt that. It is far more likely she'd just c-call with Kc or Qc. Also, don't forget that while her range seems wide based on the previous hand she did actually raise with the K-10...but has called UTG here. The most likely hand if you're beat is 4-4 imo. If you are ahead...and she has a hand that would call a turn jam...and she's proved she doesn't shut down on the river...why do you need to jam the turn? Also raising the flop only to fold vs someone who over-values marginal hands is some fold imo.

Thx for the input tom.

After she made the bet on the turn I was leading away from A with a club and more towards the A4 or 44 type hand.

Surely if we lead the turn big time we are taking out the value in our hand? (If we have any)

i'm not sure this is entirley true. against a decent player it certainly is, but seeing as she happily called off once with top pair no kicker i wouldnt be surprised to see a call with  Ahrt 4h or  Ahrt Jc on any blamk turn.

however, the raise on the flop shows more strength than keir did at any point so it depends whether you think she will pick up on it!

but, also, there is 20k in the pot by the turn if you do choose to raise the flop so it wouldnt be a massive dissapointment to take it there rather than sweat the club/cheeky 2 pair

but of course you were the one playing at the table with her so i'm sure you had much more of a idea about her than i could ever have from my computer screen!!

flat flop. crai non-club turn. if shes flopped a flush good luck to her.

This is basically what I said earlier Neil, except using 80x as many words. I think you're giving her far far too much respect

I do alot of people and its something I need to work on

Thats the thing, I had literally only just got to be table, probably first orbit so no real info apart from the hand with kier and a friend telling me she is useless.

what actually happened?

Why do you think kier didn't c-jam the turn with his K-Q? Kier maxed the value vs this villain by c-calling the turn so why would you do anything different here?

Incase we miss value when a club hits and villain doesnt have one?

Or if she doesnt have an ace at all and is drawing with something like  Kc Js or  Kc Q. let's get it in before she misses.

But you could say the exact same thing about the spade draw in kier's hand. Also note the spade coming in that hand didn't slow her down...and anyway I can't see how she bets pot on the turn with a single club draw.

She's a donk. they do donkiful things

I think when a player is so extreme (whether that is aggressive, tight, or bad, etc) you sometimes have to take a line that you would never have wanted to take.

Getting such a massive stack in on a dodgy board is not what you planned to do, but the fact take this awful player will give you value with so many hands that you beat means that you have to consider it. This is basically just because of one big problem- this lady is over-valuing her hands not just in the typical donk way of calling too big, but unusally by betting too big as well.

I think you can take out some insurance by not raising the flop, and being able to get away if a club comes on the turn or river (after all, if she is so bad, she is never going to outfox you by turning one pair into a bluff if the board four flushes).

Otherwise, however, I think we need to decide to be very clear that we are not going to pass the hand. Unless we decide this for sure, it could confuse our thinking on how we are going to achieve our aim- combining the best value from our hand with getting away with some kind of decent stack if the club comes.

There are two main reasons why I think we have to make this big decision that we are playing this for value:

1)If we re-raise the flop, are we really thinking about getting away? We have an awful player who has just lost a big pot; can we really be certain that we are passing the losing hand if she moves all-in?

2) If we call the turn, the river is a blank and she moves in, can we possibly pass to the big danger here- a set of fours? I really don't think so. She has been seen to over value marginal hands by making big bets, and for this reason we would have to call.

My line is to call the flop, lead a non-club turn big for 11k, and a safe river for the remaining 18k (?). If she re-raises all-in on the turn, sigh, say to yourself "why couldn't this pot have come against someone who can play poker?" and call the bet.  If a club comes on the river, check-pass.

(My guess given her pre-flop limp is that she has something like  Jc Ts or  Qc Ts? If not, she has a set of fours)

Wouldn't jamming a club river rather than c-passing a club river be better vs a damn awful player? She's just made a crying call and lost...would she make another? Why do we put her on a face card club?

I agree. I think the best play would to bet 10k of the remaining 20k. We all know that can never be a bluff, but she doesn't. It's more likely to be called than a jam, and if we're wrong, 10k is not a disaster to play with.

Neil, do you know whether she re-checked her cards on the flop? I think that might be very crucial here, as most donks would do. If she didn't, it might just be enough cause to worry about a set of fours or a flush.

She re checked her cards after I checked to her on the flop but then never looked at them again after this point.

As soon as the flop come down her very first thing to do was to look down at her chips, i.e. a sign she is strong and I dont think a check ever went through her head.

This is one thing I considered on the flop and turn.  For all she knows I may have an ace with  Kc and be chasing the nut flush.

Ohhhhh the suspence.  I dont want to reveal just yet as reading people's different views is really helping me here.

i think so. surely the only hand she could conceivable 3-bet with that we're ahead of is A4, other than that we have 4 outs.

and why do you not include A4 in her range stu?

i agree that QT and JT with a club are hands that fit into her range though. but do the overbets not suggest to you that she may be trying to protect her hand (be it a weak ace or baby flush)?

im here talking about the hand with tom and we're thinking that the raise on the flop allows you to get away from a flush or set, although its possible that we'll mistakenly pass to a 3-bet from A4. if she flats the raise then a pair and a club seems the most likely candidate, meaning that we can check-fold a club or jam/lead on a blank (cant remember the exact stacks). raising her seems to define her hand so well that it makes up for having to check-pass in a big pot on the turn.

really interesting hand though blatch!

obv didnt mean 3-bet and 4-bet in that post. corrected now

 I kind of agree. I just think, if you wanted to know directions in the street, you wouldn't stop and ask a blind person. I think asking your opponent to define their hand is fine against an ABC player or a calling station, but this lady is much more dangerous. She is also a betting station, and has just lost a big pot. How can we ask her to define her hand when she hasn't got the slightest clue about hand values herself?

I agree that, if she re-re-raises us, we are losing more often than winning, and should pass. However, I think that we are going to pass the winning hand often enough that it makes it very dangerous to re-raise in order to pass here. We might even have to put 10 4 suited in her range, and can be really be sure she is not going to move in with an  Ahrt 9c type hand, or maybe even  Ahrt 9h?

I think pot control is the best line as we come out alive alot more often. If the club comes on the turn or river, we can escape with chips, but we still probably get full value if it doesn't. By re-raising the flop, we have to jam the turn, and look for our bike if she has a flush draw which hits on the river.

bet you passed the flop. no balls.

you're definitely starting to win me over.

the big question for me is how do blind people make their way to a £1000 ME?

not that im saying she's not terrible. just questioning why she's in the comp

Bet you I know what the river card was ner ner ;)

Lets not start on the standard of play overall, lets just say I saw worse in the comp

Thanks for your input Stu - do you really think she would limp UTG with  Ahrt 9h and then lead on an incredibly scary board?  I know she is a bad player but surely not even a bad player does this?

I honestly though I was still miles infront on the turn but being as easy as the chips were as well as someone elses at the table I didnt want to shove and have her call and me sweating a 25% shot for the outdraw.  I thought she would call the river anyway if I lead and with a very good stack anyway and her and another chipped up bad player at the table I didnt want to put myself at risk to the draw that I believe she would call all in with.

[/quote]

Thanks for your input Stu - do you really think she would limp UTG with  Ahrt 9h and then lead on an incredibly scary board?  I know she is a bad player but surely not even a bad player does this?


[/quote]

I think the key is that she might do. She most likely would check-call, but with  Ahrt 9h and a ton of other hands there is a chance that she might make this big donk lead. The hardest type of player to read is the one that doesn't know what they are doing themselves. For this reason, I think it's really dangerous to make a play that credits her with any kind of logic, or to try to give her a narrow range at any stage.

That's why I think the best plan is to not try to read her hand precisely, but play for a line that gets us value from that fact she is going to call super-light, and allows us to escape if the club comes.

I really like the play of not re-raising the turn all-in, as  a) she is going to call off the rest on a lot of safe rivers anyway, b) you can have almost zero worry that she will turn an inferior hand into a bluff and c) 20k is alot to stay alive with if the club does come on the river.

I like leading a bit more, as it allows you to control the size of the pot, so that you can make sure she is priced in on the river, and it prevents her from checking behind a drawing hand.

ok thanks for the input, pleased the thread has sort of taken of and some very good points made.

I flatted the turn mainly for pot control and with the hope to lead out if I felt I was still good.

River came  Kc , I threw up a little in my mouth and had a quick think about what to do as I had to re evaluate the whole hand as I starting to lean towards her having an ace with  Kc.

Can anyone find a bet here? If so how much?

but do the overbets not suggest to you that she may be trying to protect her hand (be it a weak ace or baby flush)?
dousche said this and I tend to see things this way...we can include the 4-4 as well. If villain doesn't have a big club the Kc doesn't have to be a bad card for us? She's gonna have to be holding one of a couple of cards to call the river imo. If we don't get married to the idea of how strong our hand used to be we may see a very good spot to bluff. She's just called a river lead to be shown the bad news and so your FE is excellent imo. River jam would be a very convincing story the way hero's played it imo. Much easier said than done mind.

Isn't the problem with this plan that the villian is BAD and would call with a weak club?

Does she have a club at all considering her bets? There's a lot of chips in the middle. Enough to consider she doesn't.

So we were calling flop and turn not to control pot size but to bluff river when club comes cos we're beat? Or to obv get her stack if she overplays any rag ace?

I think the idea of a massive move of turning two pair into a bluff is arguable against a solid player, but is suicidal against her. The range of hands that can beat us but can't call a bet is so narrow, and I think the comment after her call against Kieran tells us that she may even call with confidence here. We need to have two things fall in our favour for this move to work- firstly that our read is right that she does not have a high club, and secondly that an awful player can pass the top two pair or better.

What are we trying to bluff that can beat us? A baby flush that saw a bad river card? I think she is even going to have a tough time folding a set of fours here. It's a difficult thing to put your trust in any player to fold a big hand, but I think it's incredibly risky to put any faith in her judgement and discipline.

I must be bad at poker because i think she played the hand first hand fine, the river is obviously marginal. To me the young kid has played it worse. Limp calling oop with KQ is just lol.

As for the hand itself i would have bet the flop.

Also raise more pre, or dont raise at all oop.

As played, check call, crai non club turn looks pretty standard to me. Dont think requires too much thought

i always thought she gad 44 but im chit so there (stuart was right)

River wiiiii, now we can win the pot w/o showdown. I shove here all day long. pending live "tells" ftw obv.

If shes really shit and cant read her, blocker bet the river, although its so ridic exploitable to anyone with a brain she wont abuse it.

I think if he has seen that she is really bad, limp calling deep stacked seems fine. Dubai, what can she beat on the river?

His play on the river depends completely on his thinking. If it is thin value bet despite the third spade coming, it's pretty awesome. It feels like it was intended as a bluff that got lucky, in which case it's pretty bad. Any ideas Neil?

I had literally just got to the table when Kier got involved with her.  I honestly believe that he was trying to represent the flush against her and got lucky.  When he shoved and she called he stood up and looked as if he was getting ready to walk.

Neil the key to posing on PHA is knowing when to reveal results.

Everyone's bored now- what happened???

tit :)

I checked the river and she checked behind me saying "well I did have it" and flipped  4c 7c

Maybe a bet on the river would have taken it.

Yeah, for me that comment tells us a fold was realistic on the river. The big bets she put in through the streets seemed to be more protecting a hand than betting a draw imo. It's funny though because we will readily get our chips in on the flop or turn and that's ok...cos if she's got the flush gl to her. But we're not so keen to put those very same chips, we lose by pushing earlier, in on the river. While the hand didn't really pan out as we would like there still a good chance to win the pot if we are alive to this ideal bluffing opportunity. In fact this is the only way to win the pot so it is worth at least some consideration. Maybe she does find a call...but gl to her right?

Neil, I really think you did the right thing by checking it. For it to be right to turn our hand into a massive bluff, we need two things to be right:

1) We need the lady to have a very specific hand range- either a set or a flopped baby flush. If she instead has a big club in her hand, we are automatically gone.

2) I think it's a tough demand to rely on any poker player to find the discipline to fold a big hand. How many times have you seen someone scratch their head, think they are beat, but reflect on the pot size and the unfairness of having their baby flush "cracked," and make the call. I think your tournament would have come to a horrible end, with her looking dejected, saying "you must have a big flush?" and putting her chips over the line.

The previous pot has shown that you just cannot put any faith in this lady to fold any hand, never mind one that was so big. In the pot where she made a call that could not possibly be good, she did not look disappointed with herself, but made a comment completely oblivious to the possibility of folding. Relying on someone with no poker ability to realise that we are representing a flush is like telling a lie to a deaf person.

I think you actually don't have a great representation for the flush even against a thinking player, for the reason that the river is the king of clubs. If your calls on the flop and turn really were with a drawing hand, surely this is the card you are meant to have?

On the turn and river I actually had her on the hand that she had me on.  I was thinking she had ace and  Kc but when that popped up on the river I thought it was another hand that she had played really badly and held either the  Qc or  Jc and didnt think she would fold either on the river.