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Poker Forums => The Rail => Topic started by: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM



Title: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM
Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.

You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.

You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.

Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.

If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.

(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: ifm on December 05, 2005, 02:17:25 AM

(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

PMSL, i can imagine you doing that!!


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Wardonkey on December 05, 2005, 02:18:32 AM
Barny Boatman went thru' this one on the Hendon Mob Forum. It's a matter of personal risk tolerance as much as a financial consideration. I have only one thing to say; GAMBOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: bundle on December 05, 2005, 02:20:20 AM
There is also a point of quitting while your ahead..


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 05, 2005, 02:22:26 AM


(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

hehe. geeeeeeeeeeeeek alert.  rotflmfao


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:23:29 AM
There is also a point of quitting while your ahead..

If you quit while you're a head you'll never win a beetle drive.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Dewi_cool on December 05, 2005, 02:23:57 AM
why are u lot not in bed


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: ifm on December 05, 2005, 02:26:06 AM
why are u lot not in bed

Bed is for sissys (or normal folks)


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Wardonkey on December 05, 2005, 02:28:32 AM
If you didn't start with anything then you can't lose anything, the upside is too big to ignore and the downside is tiny. You leave WINNING £32k as a worst case scenario.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Wardonkey on December 05, 2005, 02:30:40 AM
What is this bed thing?

Is it the place I go to avoid the daylight?


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:32:06 AM


(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

hehe. geeeeeeeeeeeeek alert.  rotflmfao

Damn, the secret's out.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 05, 2005, 02:34:59 AM
Next you'll be telling me that it's a pen and paper in front of Countdown.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: The Baron on December 05, 2005, 02:46:06 AM
Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.

You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.

You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.

Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.

If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.

(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

Wow, the funny thing is this has actually occured on millionaire.

A young student from East Anglia Uni in Norwich was in this exact predicament. He said he didn't know the question, said he wanted a 50:50 then announced that the risk was worth the reward and gambled.

He won £125,000 and left almost before the next question was read out.

For a 21 yr old he certainly had some testicular fortitude.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:53:50 AM
If I were on the show and somehow managed to get up to £500k with my 50-50 left and knew the answer to the cheeky £1million question then I'd jazz it up.

I'd pretend I didn't know the answer, then chat to Chris for a bit about how my EV would be £516k from guessing so I had better take a stab at it. I reckon that'd be cracking telly.

There's a possibility the kid knew too and was hamming it up for the cameras.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: ifm on December 05, 2005, 02:56:19 AM
I thought about the £1 mill question before, i always think that if i knew the answer i'd think about it and somehow convince myself i was wrong and take the £500k!!!


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: The Baron on December 05, 2005, 02:58:05 AM
The guy who won the 1st million in the U.S apparently phoned his dad for phone a friend only to start shouting "DAD I'VE WON A MILLION!!"


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: ifm on December 05, 2005, 02:59:29 AM
They dumbed down the questions in America though...........


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Newmanseye on December 05, 2005, 03:00:03 AM
If I was at the £500K mark, I would be asking for the adverts, cos I probably would have shixt my drawers., then I would tell hime I dont care what the question is and take the money.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 05, 2005, 03:00:39 AM
The first guy to win a million rang his dad up on the final question to tell him he was baout to become a millionaire.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 05, 2005, 03:04:09 AM
oops. didn't see baron's post.



Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: thetank on December 05, 2005, 03:13:44 AM
They dumbed down the questions in America though...........

Yes, the question toughness is directly proportional to the average IQ of the country in which the show is broadcast.
So the Americans get questions like we do for the sub £1k amounts all the way up to $32k. If you can tie your shoelaces, you can probably win $1million on the American version.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Newmanseye on December 05, 2005, 03:17:29 AM
They dumbed down the questions in America though...........

Yes, the question toughness is directly proportional to the average IQ of the country in which the show is broadcast.
So the Americans get questions like we do for the sub £1k amounts all the way up to $32k. If you can tie your shoelaces, you can probably win $1million on the American version.

LMAO is that true?


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: thetank on December 05, 2005, 05:20:21 AM
Yes.

If you want I can get someone to teach you that shoelace trick Billy. :D


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Scottish Dave on December 05, 2005, 06:50:57 AM
Yes.

If you want I can get someone to teach you that shoelace trick Billy. :D

ROFL


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Newmanseye on December 05, 2005, 07:13:18 AM
ha fecking ha.

 >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: Ironside on December 05, 2005, 07:36:52 AM
Yes.

If you want I can get someone to teach you that shoelace trick Billy. :D

dont be stupid why bother learning when god invented slip on shoes


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: mikkyT on December 05, 2005, 12:16:12 PM
Billy wears velcro trainers. ;)



Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: NoflopsHomer on December 05, 2005, 12:29:43 PM
A guy I went to school with who was incredibly unpleasant went on WWTBAM and blew it on the 32k question putting him down to merely 1k. That was the day I realised there was a god...  :D


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: doubleup on December 06, 2005, 07:48:32 PM
Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.

You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.

You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.

Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.

If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.

(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

Presumably you were at the Stanley - coincidentally you could actually have met someone there in the £500 who won £125k on Who Wants.. and applied the +EV gamble logic twice! He also brought implied odds into the equation in that if he was correct with his gamble he had the possibility of more +EV situations.


Title: Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
Post by: thetank on December 06, 2005, 07:54:20 PM
Yeah, he was pointed out to me when the subject came up. Didn't know he applied the EV thinking though.