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Turning down a +EV situation.
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Topic: Turning down a +EV situation. (Read 4031 times)
The Baron
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #15 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:58:05 AM »
The guy who won the 1st million in the U.S apparently phoned his dad for phone a friend only to start shouting "DAD I'VE WON A MILLION!!"
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ifm
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #16 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:59:29 AM »
They dumbed down the questions in America though...........
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Newmanseye
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #17 on:
December 05, 2005, 03:00:03 AM »
If I was at the £500K mark, I would be asking for the adverts, cos I probably would have shixt my drawers., then I would tell hime I dont care what the question is and take the money.
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snoopy1239
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #18 on:
December 05, 2005, 03:00:39 AM »
The first guy to win a million rang his dad up on the final question to tell him he was baout to become a millionaire.
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snoopy1239
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #19 on:
December 05, 2005, 03:04:09 AM »
oops. didn't see baron's post.
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thetank
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #20 on:
December 05, 2005, 03:13:44 AM »
Quote from: ifm on December 05, 2005, 02:59:29 AM
They dumbed down the questions in America though...........
Yes, the question toughness is directly proportional to the average IQ of the country in which the show is broadcast.
So the Americans get questions like we do for the sub £1k amounts all the way up to $32k. If you can tie your shoelaces, you can probably win $1million on the American version.
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Newmanseye
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #21 on:
December 05, 2005, 03:17:29 AM »
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 03:13:44 AM
Quote from: ifm on December 05, 2005, 02:59:29 AM
They dumbed down the questions in America though...........
Yes, the question toughness is directly proportional to the average IQ of the country in which the show is broadcast.
So the Americans get questions like we do for the sub £1k amounts all the way up to $32k. If you can tie your shoelaces, you can probably win $1million on the American version.
LMAO is that true?
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thetank
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #22 on:
December 05, 2005, 05:20:21 AM »
Yes.
If you want I can get someone to teach you that shoelace trick Billy.
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Scottish Dave
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #23 on:
December 05, 2005, 06:50:57 AM »
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 05:20:21 AM
Yes.
If you want I can get someone to teach you that shoelace trick Billy.
ROFL
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Newmanseye
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #24 on:
December 05, 2005, 07:13:18 AM »
ha fecking ha.
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Ironside
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #25 on:
December 05, 2005, 07:36:52 AM »
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 05:20:21 AM
Yes.
If you want I can get someone to teach you that shoelace trick Billy.
dont be stupid why bother learning when god invented slip on shoes
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mikkyT
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #26 on:
December 05, 2005, 12:16:12 PM »
Billy wears velcro trainers.
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NoflopsHomer
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
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Reply #27 on:
December 05, 2005, 12:29:43 PM »
A guy I went to school with who was incredibly unpleasant went on WWTBAM and blew it on the 32k question putting him down to merely 1k. That was the day I realised there was a god...
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doubleup
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #28 on:
December 06, 2005, 07:48:32 PM »
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM
Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.
You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.
You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.
Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.
If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.
(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)
Presumably you were at the Stanley - coincidentally you could actually have met someone there in the £500 who won £125k on Who Wants.. and applied the +EV gamble logic twice! He also brought implied odds into the equation in that if he was correct with his gamble he had the possibility of more +EV situations.
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thetank
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #29 on:
December 06, 2005, 07:54:20 PM »
Yeah, he was pointed out to me when the subject came up. Didn't know he applied the EV thinking though.
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
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