blonde poker forum

UTG with AJo in a $55 comp.

Folding seems to weak, raise folding is shit and obv raise, c bet fold sucks so do i just blast here? Not 100% sure??

Full Tilt Poker Game #14128088290: $10,000 Guarantee (103900795), Table 22 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:44:28 ET - 2009/08/19
Seat 1: el-buitre75 (7,337)
Seat 2: rowie343 (16,305)
Seat 3: fmak18 (8,132)
Seat 4: amatay (6,625)
Seat 5: subrat (4,689)
Seat 6: Fish is Fish 75 (9,874)
Seat 7: DANKASSMID (10,093)
Seat 8: newcastle420 (8,369)
el-buitre75 antes 50
rowie343 antes 50
fmak18 antes 50
amatay antes 50
subrat antes 50
Fish is Fish 75 antes 50
DANKASSMID antes 50
newcastle420 antes 50
rowie343 posts the small blind of 200
fmak18 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to amatay [Ah Jd]

Open shoving is fine with antes in play, not sure whether making it about 1100 is better.

Id be open shoving here m8, If your gonna raise you gotta snap off a shove.

utg I fold

shoving 16bb utg with AJo looks somewhat spewy to me

There is 1000 in there so we have effectively about 10bbs, get it in.

Yeah with antes id get it in, without fold.

All the mtts regs shove but i think its horrid.

It's a shove for me.

I dunno much about like Gigabets theory. And skill edge n stuff. But I think if you take those into account it will be a +EV shove

I don't really want to shove it... but I do shove it.

How would you play it?

I think 2.5x is better here mate. Folding is okay. I don't really like shoving.

Min-raise, or open limp... I think it could be back!

I don't like the shove but your prob best for flushy leknave etc to comment on whether it is a shove.

I make it 1000 or potentially fold, depending on table dynamics.

OK, for 2.5x are people making any adjustment for the antes before working out what 2.5x is?  1000 without antes is 2.5x - the effect of the antes of course means that an open to 1000 is no longer "going to get the same job done" as people are going to be more prepared to fight over the ante-inflated pot.

So for now, if we make it 1k to open (15% of our chips) what are we doing if we a) get raised, and b) called and missed the flop?

I used to think I was deep enough to open-fold this pre, now having played a lot more r.a. tournys I have learned how quickly those antes start to bite. 

What do we do with 22-55 here? Shove too?

Obviously this takes into account only folding and shoving as options. This is the WORST case scenario I could get messing with the ranges,the wider or even tighter the better the shove becomes, this is an unexploitable shove. I have used the cEV model which is pretty reasonable in MTT push/fold situations.

(http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/5418/amagayajhand.jpg) (http://img194.imageshack.us/i/amagayajhand.jpg/)

All the mtt regs that everyone thinks is good shove small pairs here. Which I again think is awful

I still make it 1000 with antes, I think it gets the job done. Most people will protect from the blind with a similar range even if you up the raise and if you get 3 bet then the decision is still the same no matter what you initially raised.

I continuation bet most uncoordinated boards.

depends what u expect to call ya if aj shove utg is a shove. tight image prob fold rather shove shit in position and if u have a loose image u can shove for value and expect to get called by worse.         

How do u play it mate?

fwiw in the tourn i open folded but on reflection i think i should have just smashed it in. I always find these spots tough tbh and its pretty close. where do u draw the line. do we smash 55-88?? in this spot A10? KQ?

Raise fold is my standard line in these kinda spots.

Longy could you use the "simulate future hands" feature?

This would take into account the fact your utg and about to take a big hit to your stack next hand.

2.5x to stop them snapping you with 66-99. obv b/c.

kinda meaningless though as we're not playing a game where jam or fold are our only options

It proves folding is way worse than shoving, which is what about was suggested on the 1st page. As I said in the very first reply it is simply a case of whether opening to 1000-1100 is better.


It won't simulate future games with this many people still left in, the hit to your stack generally means you should shove a little wider than sngwiz suggest.

im a nit so i fold lol

Bit of a mixed bag. I still don't know wtf is optimally in these spots tbh

got to shove this

Fold please.

ye this cos sometimes ppl flat and cos its hard to play after the flop (obv dubai + flushy play better post flop than me) id rather jam now and take the edge.  I dont particularly like raise folding cos its east for people to take advantage of (if you have a rep of raise folding off stacks like this.  Obv if ppl think your never raise folding, then raise folding is ok but ppl make notes).  Also a raise fold of this stack means your stack goes from being reasonable for rejamming to getting close to not being able to.  I think 22-66 is probably an open fold here

Middy you'd 5 bet shove this stack with A9 suited utg at 10/20 ;)

I'd Pass.

trigg wheres ur post gone from last night?

do u open jam 77-99 here???

ofc fishaaaayyy

raise call with 77-99 that way u get 22-66 to shove on you thinking you might fold whereas if you shove they cant call, you might even get hands like Ax to shove on you as well as in these BIs that kind of thing happens often. If u had a table of regulars thats different and i prob just shove then but with a bunch of unknowns raise call is best...i think

i reshipped with kj against a utg raise other day guy had similar stack to wat u have here. . he had aj too so raise call is prob better as people wil spaz worse and your looking for a double up  :(

what happens when some plum flats? u bet fold or bet call regardless of most board? same with aj or 77 type hands.

i would find a fold here u still have a decent stack for this stage and have a bit of play left.

Eight handed, in this particular situation, this must be a shove. In a $55 the average players isoing range of a 16bb stack, eight handed,  will be along the lines of 88+,AQs+,AQo+.  However, there are not many chips on your table so peoples ranges probably tighten up even more.  The average isolation range accounts for 5.6% of hands so you're not going to get called that often and when you do you still will have around 31.12% equity in the hand. Running the hand one hundred times will show a profit. Assume the sb only has called you in this situation.

(using approximations) 6% calling range/33% equity

Times we shove and opponents all fold (94*1000) = +t94000

We get called 6 times and we win twice when this happens ( 4 x -t6625) + (2 x t6375)  = -t26500 +t12750 = -t13750

Therefore we make a profit of 94000 - 13750 =80250 (per 100 shoves)
or +t802.50 per shove.

Folding is obv -t50 per hand.

Even with rough calculations you can see this is a shove. Obv it is a general outline but without definite reads on calling/isoing ranges its hard to give exact caluculations.

Our stack still just about has a raise left in it so I can't see a problem with making it about 1k here. It looks strong anyway because you are UTG so you're unlikely to get shoved on or called by anything worse.

If someone shoves then it's pass or snap depending on who's done it and whether you have any kind of info on them. Needs to be very solid info to make the call though.

Against an unknown it's a raise fold for me.

The only reason people don't like raising here is because they hate having to pass AJ when someone shoves. Get over it, it happens sometimes.

we get called more often than 6/100.  the chance of all 7 villains folding is 0.94^7 = 0.648

we are -6625 the times we get it in and lose but we are +7425 the times we win v sb

Your method of applying maths to a spot like this is a much better solution than just guessing at jam or fold but it think its maybe a little closer than your calculations suggest

shove > fold > raise-fold > raise-call imo.

Yeah I can see where I went wrong there.  My bad, will wait at least 3 hours after waking before attempting math next time!

Thanks for pointing it out, will be easier to caluculate more accuratley next time.