blonde poker forum

Live £30 Freezeout

Blinds 600/1200

UTG (25k) Call
Folds to HERO SB (36k)  Jh 7h Call
BB (8k) Check

Flop  4d 5h 6h

SB Check
BB Bet 1k
UTG All in 25k

Down to last 20 players, 10 paid and table is pretty soft with 1 bigger stack and lots of mid stacks limp folding and generally nut peddling to final table.  Had no real resistance to blind stealing.

Is there any argument for folding and playing small pots rather than going for a big pot here with most likely 14/15 outs?

player reads????????

wat is utg like


is this always aces? or is he limping wide and could just be jamming bigger hearts or A7 sort of things?

I'd hate folding but if it's really that soft to just open and steal every pot you may aswell just do that.

UTG is pretty poor and confident he has a big premium and now just donk shoved to protect it so range is really QQ+ or AK, doubt its ever a set imo

could it be just hearts though? if it's just QQ+ all day long get it in.

Hmmmm

UTG shove screams of a big flush draw and you really don't want to be up against that because you're already behind and haven't got much to catch up with. It's certainly not a flip that's for sure.

If you can 100% put oppo on a set or overpair then the call is fine but if he could have a draw then I don't like it at all.

If you really think you have 14 or 15 outs then it's a fist pump but you need to be sure.

I'd love to get my chips in first with this hand but no way am I calling 20 bigs with it.

might be best to pokerstove a range.

would a reasonable range be 99+, 7x with a pair (like 67), heart draws (like 9ts) with outside chance of a set?

there is also an unknown factor here in that BB has donked out (albeit incredibly small) and could be sat there with a set/2pair

fold, the times he shows up with a big flush draw here just aren't worth it.

it completely depends on the type of player, if it's an 'utg' limp and therefore strong and also hating life that it's a limped pot he might just jam his big pairs. But if he is limping alot and his range can include lots of bigger flush draws, random 2pr sets etc then if it's as soft as described you can just fold and find lots of better spots.

Fold pre

wat are you talking about?

utg doesn't always just open shove.

If you are thinking of folding this hand on that flop then you should be folding pre. What on earth are you hoping to hit when you complete the small blind.

Well  8h 9h Th would be my preferred flop if I'm being totally honest.

I checked the flop to get action and was 100% looking to get all my chips in here v utg on this flop thinking i nearly always have 14/15 outs but was expecting to be the one pushing tbh.

But what i was thinking doesnt mean it was right thats why i posted it to see what the consensus was.

So we flop combo draw and we must call ai ......

no we play poker and assess what kind of hands he could do what move with.


this is live poker anything could happen post flop from check open fold check to check min bet call call.

This is an unusual situation, folding this isn't ideal but against certain people you should fold and against certain people you should never fold imo.

Shove them all in!

Absolute best case you have 21 outs! if up against AK non hearts.

Worst case you still have 6 outs.

Err what are you talking about ??

i don't think i would fold pre

I don't make a habit of completing in the sb with soooted junk oop hoping to flop the nuts to get my money in.Seems like a leak to me.

I doubt he has AKno hearts and worst situation 6 outs is very bad.


God why does no one care about the action? just the fact our hand is strong against certain hands doesn't mean that we have necessarily good equity against the hands he takes this action with dependent on our reads on the person.

When utg doesn't open shove and bets any reasonable amount we can c/r and have FE and good equity when called. When we call ai we HAVE NO FE so must realise our pot equity, if he has a draw we don't like this situation. therefore we have to atleast consider reads and the way the betting has gone down.

You are the one who has dismissed the possibility that folding J7s in the SB might be the correct thing to do.

Personally I fold pre. I have no idea what you are hoping to happen if you elect to call pre. Calling then folding when you hit the flop hard is worse than calling then folding when you miss the flop the majority of the time. Then there are the times you flop top pair and fold to an allin coz you think you are outkicked or against a set/overpair... We are out of position with about 20BB electing to call and then fold almost every flop against 2 opponents unless it comes JJ7 or villains open fold/check it down with trash hands.

that's because it's a great hand to see a flop with.

I LOVE GETTING MY MONEY IN WITH COMBO DRAWS


BUT I LIKES FOLD EQUITY AND TAKING POTS WITHOUT SHOWDOWN

hmm how often does betting go pot is 2 and he bets 20?

everytime?

this is such a rare situation. with our stack and the blinds/antes I am competing after an utg limper all day long.

How much longer are these medium 8-10k stacks going to let you take their blinds? Not very much longer I reckon. I don't think people should be thinking they fold here to play some deep stack poker anytime soon. There will be a lot of jamming about now imo. So this weak point about passing to play small pots doesn't really reflect the stage of the tournament you're now at. I also think we shouldn't be looking to nut-peddle our way to the f/t either because we don't have enough chips really. My man UTG is being a bit extreme if he has the nfd so I would find it very hard to fold this hand.

Right, so fold pre. If you do elect to call and flop the effective nuts then call the all-in.

those that say fold pre are sort of avoiding the question at hand and you are sort of using the post flop action to justify your point. Yes it is a valid statement to make and is perfectly ok but doesn't really address the post flop question. majority of time on this flop you get chips in first here in a +EV situation with FE plus x number of outs if called.

basically now you need to assign UTG with a range and do the maths. I might gamble here as we have a shoving stack if we fail and a big stack to take down the tourney

Do you not think from this betting action that he may well be a weak player and therefore could have just limped KThh and seen low cards with hearts and gone all in because that's what people on tv do? I could just aswell see someone turning up with overpairs but the overbet looks like a draw to me.

HAHAHAHAAH READ MY POST

Does betting always go check allin massive over bet shove. No of course it doesn't.


What matters is not how pretty our hand is or how we put in 200 so now we hit we cant fold. We put in money with a plan. If the action goes pretty much any other way than open jam we are putting all our money in. When it goes in like this you need to look at the range of hands someone could do this with and the relative likelihood of each hand, combine that with how our hand fares against that range and see where you lie.

Hitting = you stack off, means you play cards not poker.

with last line 100%

There's no doubt he's a weak player. That said he could be turning over all manner of shite or making a move on the ss. And my hand is very strong.

FFS. Please do whatever you like. My bad, calling SB with shite and the folding the flop when we hit it is indeed good poker.

Sure am doing this,i doubt i'd ever fold post flop without knowing the player really well to be certain he has a flush draw.

If he was going to make 'a move' would he have not raised pre?

Someone who limps is therefore more likely passive in my eyes, so when they overbet i'm thinking AA that got annoyed at missing pf trap and is scared to play post, or a fd that wants to take it down with fe.

Tbh I hadn't thought if he could have a smaller combo draw or something but I think it's totally read defendant. If I made a fold here it would take me a while is all I can say.
I dont think I would lead the flop too much unless the utg player was very loose/passive, I would check to him hoping for a bet then c/jam and when called announce 'I have outs'


Dave have you ever heard of equity or equity calculations?

http://www.cardschat.com/poker-equity.php

Try downloading pokerstove and see how well our hand does against a tight shoving range of sets/ops/bigger fds....

How many combinations of 3 cards on the flop are there sir?

How many times when the flop is dealt do we think UTG Is open jamming?

How often when you have an edge on a field do you pick up small pots regardless of hand strength because people play poorly postflop?

Firstly, you sure aren't patronising

Secondly Are you now just arguin for the sake of it ?

Thirdly HU 4 ROLLZ* ??

My roll is .53c as i'm nowhere near as good as you but still think i'll own your soul with that.

I haven't been on here for a while and don't remember seeing your annoying updates but you seem pretty cock sure of yourself. I have no idea why you are here if you have all the answers and are just here to give us all advice on how to play and point us towards pokerstove etc.

Anyway, the hand - you are missing the point. You are not going to play J7s profitably here ever which is why you should be folding it pre.

The end. Signing off. Over and out. Self-righteous update on its way i'm sure.

Thing is UTG has been tagged as poor so you can't just be putting sets and  Ahrt Kh in his hands. He could spaz out with any kinda shit. I would muck if we had 100k each or UTG was clued up. But we need to look how the tournament is panning out. It's pretty shallow out there so playing the next hr with a padded stack that can absorb the variance vs ss shoving gives you the best chance of actually winning the tournament imo.

The UTG player is awful - agreed?

Assign him a range as agreed.

AA with Ah - we have 14outs = 56% chance = call

he has AhKn - we have 12 outs = 48% chance = marginal call / fold

he has 78 - we have 9 outs = 36% chance

He has a set - we have 15 outs = 60% chance.

The only hand we are really behind too is 78 - possible but very badly played by UTG, limp UTG questionable with 78 and then overbet with nuts?

I cannot see folding this hand at all, and as stated you still have 11k left if you call and lose!

Interesting spot, would be way happier with some better reads. I call pre and begrudingly call here. Not many AX and KXs combos of hearts (as we have the Jh and hes utg) and despite the fact that he can have sets and overflushdraws, we still have decent equity as he has overpairs/ worse combos enough that its fine.

you'd be better using pokerstove to see your equity vs a range of holdings - i mean if he has aces he doesn't necessarily have Ah

results orientated thinking gets people barking up the wrong tree.

The original poster has posted giving history and a situation specific dynamic and asked for opinions.

This spot is not a normal, or a 'standard' spot.

When we have good chips in a mtt close to the end with people playing nitty why would a 1 line answer of fold pre garner any respect?
We have a playable hand, only have to complete, the table is playing tight so we will likely see a flop, it's live and people are open limping we can outplay them post flop some percentage of the time. We can out flop them some percentage of the time.  We can flop lots of second best hands.

That's poker.

I wasn't initially arguing merely saying what I thought to OP. Responses of you cant cawl to hit and then fold are stupid and unfounded. Backtracking and then saying fold pre is of no help.

Validating your argument with reasoning and more than one line would be preferable. People sure don't learn anything of note when told fold/raise/call but not why.

I am new davie but I sure am sure of numbers and stuff, it's the reads and adjustments where skill and experience pay off. I am here to discuss poker and get better, everyone can do that by listening/digesting/contesting if they want and then building stuff into their game.

I only sent you off to pokerstove as your attitude of cant hit and fold is wrong and considering you gave nothing of anything to back it up thought it might help.

I am obviously missing the point regards to how hard it is to play J7s profitably against people who limp and then overbet shove randomly and who play bad. Yes it's so hard to play against these people  ;whistle;

I think many arguments can be made for playing j7 here but I guess i'm wrong as all your valid arguments shoot mine out of the sky.



Mantis I totally agree but everyone else skips past the point of using reads and ideas on people. If the table is playing stupid nitty then I think it's an OP alot.

The point is not that there isn't an exactly correct preflop or post flop decision but that no one seems to want to discuss the reasoning behind any of them, it's just a pretty hand and we paid to hit so we call instead of, we call because he can have this and this and xyz and this is good and this is bad and yada yada.

I think with our stack it's a perfect spot to gamble against nearly anyone.

But if the table conditions are such that we can steal a disproportionate number of pots then that is a much safer strategy to employ. That is something worthy of discussion I feel rather than this whole fold pre or stack off, call fold or raise arent the only things to consider. We should play our hands certain ways but we should also be playing some form or fluid overall game plan working off how the table dynamic is going.


I know my posts are disgustingly long but I type fast and results orientated answers annoy me.

No, you were being a patronising smart arse.

We are really unlikely to be up against the bigger flush draw. On the flop you should never fold and you are spouting the biggest lost of pish on here since 2006. I know, I know, im gone this time.

TBH i've really appreciated his input on this hand.

How unlikely is really unlikely by the way?  Not enough to ever consider a fold?

If the action was check, raise (not all in) jam call/fold then I totally agree with your post and I've got what I paid for.  The dynamics are changed somewhat by the shove though aren't they?

I'm at work so don't have time to put in a long post so will keep it short.

I don't really understand where the results orientated bit is happening that your talking about since i'm now getting it in and don't no the outcome of the hand.

I cudn't really care whether you respect what i had to say or not,i fold pre and didn't really have anything to add that hadn't already been said and don't see much point in repeating what someone else has said.I think my reasoning for folding pre was pretty obvious so didn't go on further about that either.

Enjoy the rest of your day   :)up

With reads we are more aware of how likely though, and against some loose gimp who open jams some portion of his range he can easily have limped a hearted king with a hearted ten and know that he has one of them flush draws.

The draw is a possibility and against it we are doing not good. against everything else we are golden.


Mondatoo I merely meant daves well this is the flop so we cant do this thinking. The flop could be any 3 cards and we have to play every situation to the highest ev. If the guy has a flush draw we would like to make the fold considering the situation given, otherwise happy days. The fact that people still base their decisions pre and post on what happened on the flop and what came out this one time at band camp is stupid.


What is so obvious about folding pre I just dont get it?

I meant to no rudeness mondatoo, just didn't do multiple quotes so I may have jumped between referring to you and dave. I don't mean to be rude to either of you just answer the ops post.  If you think i'm a twat then good for you (many people do) but you could also read what I put discuss it and go away thinking he plays weird. But I guarantee you that many of the young players turning up in casinos will think similarly so why not try to see how I think and think about ways of exploiting that type of player.

Roscopiko if the action is anything other than open all in you dont have a decision. I personally here would still gamble because we have chips back and in the situation you described we can happily shove and pick up alot of blinds and if not we get a large enough stack to dominate the field easily.

fold so easily  Ahrt x of hearts... 25bb lefts wait for a better spot

I am in the folding pre camp, no one seems to have mention the bb's stack, that there is a deffo possibility that he shoves his 6bb stack pre destroying some of our implied odds. Also the post flop discussion also is a perfect example of why being oop totally sucks.

As played pretty interesting spot. When fiddling round with pokerstove i am getting around 45% equity against utg's range, assuming an edge and the dead money in the spot. It is a pretty close with that equity.

I am not sure where people are getting 6 outs from, I can't think of a single hand we have 6 outs against? Against other flush draws we always can bink one of our overs and hold.

Fold here although it makes me wanna puke.

Sorry that was me - I was counting the 6 straight outs against AhXh but forgetting the 6 pair outs!

yer this was pure bs. we have the nuts. doesnt matter how we get it in imo. infact spite calling it off would be best, to karma balance the poker world.

just to let everyone know, the guy UTG is the worst player you can imagine. He is so passive, even if he has AKhh i think he still flats, he check cals till he ahs the nuts and always gets paid off.

so it's just KK+?

or this just sets lol?

You need to check your outs mate. Yes we have oute against all of the hands but don't forget he has outs as well if we happen to hit. It isn't often as simple as calculate our outs and that's it. Nut outs yes but other outs never.