Any arguement not to flip here

[mondatoo]

those that say fold pre are sort of avoiding the question at hand and you are sort of using the post flop action to justify your point. Yes it is a valid statement to make and is perfectly ok but doesn't really address the post flop question. majority of time on this flop you get chips in first here in a +EV situation with FE plus x number of outs if called.

basically now you need to assign UTG with a range and do the maths. I might gamble here as we have a shoving stack if we fail and a big stack to take down the tourney

Sure am doing this,i doubt i'd ever fold post flop without knowing the player really well to be certain he has a flush draw.

[titaniumbean]

How much longer are these medium 8-10k stacks going to let you take their blinds? Not very much longer I reckon. I don't think people should be thinking they fold here to play some deep stack poker anytime soon. There will be a lot of jamming about now imo. So this weak point about passing to play small pots doesn't really reflect the stage on the tournament you're now at. I also think we shouldn't be looking to nut-peddle our way to the f/t either because we don't have enough chips really. My man UTG is being a bit extreme if he has the nfd so I would find it very hard to fold this hand.

Do you not think from this betting action that he may well be a weak player and therefore could have just limped KThh and seen low cards with hearts and gone all in because that's what people on tv do? I could just aswell see someone turning up with overpairs but the overbet looks like a draw to me.

There's no doubt he's a weak player. That said he could be turning over all manner of shite or making a move on the ss. And my hand is very strong.

If he was going to make 'a move' would he have not raised pre?

Someone who limps is therefore more likely passive in my eyes, so when they overbet i'm thinking AA that got annoyed at missing pf trap and is scared to play post, or a fd that wants to take it down with fe.

Tbh I hadn't thought if he could have a smaller combo draw or something but I think it's totally read defendant. If I made a fold here it would take me a while is all I can say.
I dont think I would lead the flop too much unless the utg player was very loose/passive, I would check to him hoping for a bet then c/jam and when called announce 'I have outs'


Dave have you ever heard of equity or equity calculations?

http://www.cardschat.com/poker-equity.php

Try downloading pokerstove and see how well our hand does against a tight shoving range of sets/ops/bigger fds....

[titaniumbean]

those that say fold pre are sort of avoiding the question at hand and you are sort of using the post flop action to justify your point. Yes it is a valid statement to make and is perfectly ok but doesn't really address the post flop question. majority of time on this flop you get chips in first here in a +EV situation with FE plus x number of outs if called.

basically now you need to assign UTG with a range and do the maths. I might gamble here as we have a shoving stack if we fail and a big stack to take down the tourney

Sure am doing this,i doubt i'd ever fold post flop without knowing the player really well to be certain he has a flush draw.

How many combinations of 3 cards on the flop are there sir?

How many times when the flop is dealt do we think UTG Is open jamming?

How often when you have an edge on a field do you pick up small pots regardless of hand strength because people play poorly postflop?

[mondatoo]

Firstly, you sure aren't patronising

Secondly Are you now just arguin for the sake of it ?

Thirdly HU 4 ROLLZ* ??

My roll is .53c as i'm nowhere near as good as you but still think i'll own your soul with that.

[daviebhoy]

Dave have you ever heard of equity or equity calculations?

http://www.cardschat.com/poker-equity.php

Try downloading pokerstove and see how well our hand does against a tight shoving range of sets/ops/bigger fds....

I haven't been on here for a while and don't remember seeing your annoying updates but you seem pretty cock sure of yourself. I have no idea why you are here if you have all the answers and are just here to give us all advice on how to play and point us towards pokerstove etc.

Anyway, the hand - you are missing the point. You are not going to play J7s profitably here ever which is why you should be folding it pre.

The end. Signing off. Over and out. Self-righteous update on its way i'm sure.

[MANTIS01]

How much longer are these medium 8-10k stacks going to let you take their blinds? Not very much longer I reckon. I don't think people should be thinking they fold here to play some deep stack poker anytime soon. There will be a lot of jamming about now imo. So this weak point about passing to play small pots doesn't really reflect the stage on the tournament you're now at. I also think we shouldn't be looking to nut-peddle our way to the f/t either because we don't have enough chips really. My man UTG is being a bit extreme if he has the nfd so I would find it very hard to fold this hand.

Do you not think from this betting action that he may well be a weak player and therefore could have just limped KThh and seen low cards with hearts and gone all in because that's what people on tv do? I could just aswell see someone turning up with overpairs but the overbet looks like a draw to me.

There's no doubt he's a weak player. That said he could be turning over all manner of shite or making a move on the ss. And my hand is very strong.

If he was going to make 'a move' would he have not raised pre?

Someone who limps is therefore more likely passive in my eyes, so when they overbet i'm thinking AA that got annoyed at missing pf trap and is scared to play post, or a fd that wants to take it down with fe.

Tbh I hadn't thought if he could have a smaller combo draw or something but I think it's totally read defendant. If I made a fold here it would take me a while is all I can say.
I dont think I would lead the flop too much unless the utg player was very loose/passive, I would check to him hoping for a bet then c/jam and when called announce 'I have outs'


Dave have you ever heard of equity or equity calculations?

http://www.cardschat.com/poker-equity.php

Try downloading pokerstove and see how well our hand does against a tight shoving range of sets/ops/bigger fds....

Thing is UTG has been tagged as poor so you can't just be putting sets and  in his hands. He could spaz out with any kinda shit. I would muck if we had 100k each or UTG was clued up. But we need to look how the tournament is panning out. It's pretty shallow out there so playing the next hr with a padded stack that can absorb the variance vs ss shoving gives you the best chance of actually winning the tournament imo.

[ScottMGee]

The UTG player is awful - agreed?

Assign him a range as agreed.

AA with Ah - we have 14outs = 56% chance = call

he has AhKn - we have 12 outs = 48% chance = marginal call / fold

he has 78 - we have 9 outs = 36% chance

He has a set - we have 15 outs = 60% chance.

The only hand we are really behind too is 78 - possible but very badly played by UTG, limp UTG questionable with 78 and then overbet with nuts?

I cannot see folding this hand at all, and as stated you still have 11k left if you call and lose!

[AlexMartin]

Interesting spot, would be way happier with some better reads. I call pre and begrudingly call here. Not many AX and KXs combos of hearts (as we have the and hes utg) and despite the fact that he can have sets and overflushdraws, we still have decent equity as he has overpairs/ worse combos enough that its fine.

[BulldozerD]

you'd be better using pokerstove to see your equity vs a range of holdings - i mean if he has aces he doesn't necessarily have Ah

[titaniumbean]

Firstly, you sure aren't patronising

Secondly Are you now just arguin for the sake of it ?

Thirdly HU 4 ROLLZ* ??

My roll is .53c as i'm nowhere near as good as you but still think i'll own your soul with that.

results orientated thinking gets people barking up the wrong tree.

The original poster has posted giving history and a situation specific dynamic and asked for opinions.

This spot is not a normal, or a 'standard' spot.

When we have good chips in a mtt close to the end with people playing nitty why would a 1 line answer of fold pre garner any respect?
We have a playable hand, only have to complete, the table is playing tight so we will likely see a flop, it's live and people are open limping we can outplay them post flop some percentage of the time. We can out flop them some percentage of the time.  We can flop lots of second best hands.

That's poker.

I wasn't initially arguing merely saying what I thought to OP. Responses of you cant cawl to hit and then fold are stupid and unfounded. Backtracking and then saying fold pre is of no help.

Validating your argument with reasoning and more than one line would be preferable. People sure don't learn anything of note when told fold/raise/call but not why.

I am new davie but I sure am sure of numbers and stuff, it's the reads and adjustments where skill and experience pay off. I am here to discuss poker and get better, everyone can do that by listening/digesting/contesting if they want and then building stuff into their game.

I only sent you off to pokerstove as your attitude of cant hit and fold is wrong and considering you gave nothing of anything to back it up thought it might help.

I am obviously missing the point regards to how hard it is to play J7s profitably against people who limp and then overbet shove randomly and who play bad. Yes it's so hard to play against these people 

I think many arguments can be made for playing j7 here but I guess i'm wrong as all your valid arguments shoot mine out of the sky.



Mantis I totally agree but everyone else skips past the point of using reads and ideas on people. If the table is playing stupid nitty then I think it's an OP alot.

The point is not that there isn't an exactly correct preflop or post flop decision but that no one seems to want to discuss the reasoning behind any of them, it's just a pretty hand and we paid to hit so we call instead of, we call because he can have this and this and xyz and this is good and this is bad and yada yada.

I think with our stack it's a perfect spot to gamble against nearly anyone.

But if the table conditions are such that we can steal a disproportionate number of pots then that is a much safer strategy to employ. That is something worthy of discussion I feel rather than this whole fold pre or stack off, call fold or raise arent the only things to consider. We should play our hands certain ways but we should also be playing some form or fluid overall game plan working off how the table dynamic is going.


I know my posts are disgustingly long but I type fast and results orientated answers annoy me.

[daviebhoy]

<Self-righteous Indignation Snipped>

I only sent you off to pokerstove as your attitude of cant hit and fold is wrong and considering you gave nothing of anything to back it up thought it might help.

No, you were being a patronising smart arse.

We are really unlikely to be up against the bigger flush draw. On the flop you should never fold and you are spouting the biggest lost of pish on here since 2006. I know, I know, im gone this time.

[roscopiko]

No, you were being a patronising smart arse.

We are really unlikely to be up against the bigger flush draw. On the flop you should never fold and you are spouting the biggest lost of pish on here since 2006. I know, I know, im gone this time.

TBH i've really appreciated his input on this hand.

How unlikely is really unlikely by the way?  Not enough to ever consider a fold?

If the action was check, raise (not all in) jam call/fold then I totally agree with your post and I've got what I paid for.  The dynamics are changed somewhat by the shove though aren't they?

[mondatoo]

I'm at work so don't have time to put in a long post so will keep it short.

I don't really understand where the results orientated bit is happening that your talking about since i'm now getting it in and don't no the outcome of the hand.

I cudn't really care whether you respect what i had to say or not,i fold pre and didn't really have anything to add that hadn't already been said and don't see much point in repeating what someone else has said.I think my reasoning for folding pre was pretty obvious so didn't go on further about that either.

Enjoy the rest of your day  

[titaniumbean]

<Self-righteous Indignation Snipped>

I only sent you off to pokerstove as your attitude of cant hit and fold is wrong and considering you gave nothing of anything to back it up thought it might help.

No, you were being a patronising smart arse.

We are really unlikely to be up against the bigger flush draw. On the flop you should never fold and you are spouting the biggest lost of pish on here since 2006. I know, I know, im gone this time.

With reads we are more aware of how likely though, and against some loose gimp who open jams some portion of his range he can easily have limped a hearted king with a hearted ten and know that he has one of them flush draws.

The draw is a possibility and against it we are doing not good. against everything else we are golden.


Mondatoo I merely meant daves well this is the flop so we cant do this thinking. The flop could be any 3 cards and we have to play every situation to the highest ev. If the guy has a flush draw we would like to make the fold considering the situation given, otherwise happy days. The fact that people still base their decisions pre and post on what happened on the flop and what came out this one time at band camp is stupid.


What is so obvious about folding pre I just dont get it?

I meant to no rudeness mondatoo, just didn't do multiple quotes so I may have jumped between referring to you and dave. I don't mean to be rude to either of you just answer the ops post.  If you think i'm a twat then good for you (many people do) but you could also read what I put discuss it and go away thinking he plays weird. But I guarantee you that many of the young players turning up in casinos will think similarly so why not try to see how I think and think about ways of exploiting that type of player.

Roscopiko if the action is anything other than open all in you dont have a decision. I personally here would still gamble because we have chips back and in the situation you described we can happily shove and pick up alot of blinds and if not we get a large enough stack to dominate the field easily.

[marcin123]

fold so easily  x of hearts... 25bb lefts wait for a better spot