blonde poker forum

Playing the Monte Carlo event on day two.

History

Have a very solid player on my direct right.  Has given me 3 walks and had mentioned about him being unhappy.  Raises me blind on blind on 4th orbit and I flat, and then call 3 streets flopping top n bottom.  Flop has two spades on and turn and river are spades and he flips 84 off with the 8 of spades to be good.
Apart from this there has been very little history.  He has opened a lot when folded to him and I have 3 bet him twice to which he folded both times.

The Hand

Folded to him in cut off and he opens to 6400 and 1200/2400/200 out of a stack of 450k.  Im playing 260k ish and flat with  7c 8c on the button.  Both blinds fold.  I could easily 3 bet here but thought with 3 betting him already a 4 bet wouldnt be too far around the corner.

Flops comes a rather nice looking  Kc Jc 3c , Yes my life is toasty, Yes its nice, and if anyone is wondering what it is like Ill let them know next time I see them.

Villian c bets for 10.2k which has been very standard for him.  I decided to raise to 27.2k and thought he may get a bit jiggy here considering previous action by me in previous hands.  He decides to flat which I took as a sign of strength more than a pair and draw type hand.

Turn brings the biggest blank  2h and he checks.    Do people check behind here and if not what should my bet size be to get the most value out of the hand and create a plan for the river?

Probably raise a bit more on the flop, bet around 30k now, never check this turn. You miss huge value against sets, two pair, Ac-x, Kx-Xc...

I never check the turn.

Raise bigger on the flop and then just bet bet bet away

Why raise bigger?

My general raise throughtout the comp has always been just under 3x, wouldnt a sudden change trigger alarm bells for him?

I got the figures wrong in OP, now corrected.  Basically every figure I had mentioned should have been doubled.

On the turn, when checked to me, I bet 68.3k with the intention of leaving me an approx pot size bet left.  Is this good bad?  What plan should I have for the river?

He called the turn and the river brings  Qs.

There is aprox 165k in the pot and I have around 168k left.  Does a value shove look weak enough to get a marginal call for 3/4 of his stack? Does a 100k bet out of my stack say I have the nuts? Can I get away with only betting 50k to maybe induce?

Is my bet size wrong on the turn considering above questions?

Betting to induce in live poker doesnt work. They wouldnt ship over a bet as a bluff even if u offered them 3rd place money to.

I mean given ur description in op id just ship and expect to get called nearly the same amount of times as if id bet 100k

I raise slightly more on flop and bet slightly less on the turn. On the flop he is bet peeling the same range of hands for 35k as he is for 27k and you can manipulate the pot size a bit easier to leave a psb on the river without having to bet as much on the turn. People are more likely to ship over a turn bet than a river bet, in live poker they usually decide on the turn whether to go with the hand so I bet slightly less here and leave a psb on river

You more than 3x the lead?

Yes on this board because people dont adjust their bet peeling range ON THE FLOP to your bet size. Ie they might be bet peeling 25% of their range, but they are bet peeling the same range if you raise it to 22k all the way thro to around 37k.

On the turn its different, they tend to fold a lot of their marginal hands to 70k bets here but will peel and occasionally shove to 50k bets.

Plus making its 27k, 67k shove looks stronger than 35k 50k shove imo.

What if we raise less to take a line that doesn't end up with us shoving the river?

Then we dont double up :)

I haven't read the replies but I'd do whatever Dubai says.

Then does it not look too strong a line when we bet 3 streets and end up betting around half our stack in on the river?

I tried to get bet sizing right from the flop to enable a PSB on the river but im wondering know if I got too greedy.  Maybe I could have bet less and picked up another 25 bb on the river.

you're in luck, he said he'd kiss nevillicious on the lips

.... and do whatever Dubai does?  

Like trying Middy's boots on for size?

We might win a sizeable pot more often though.

I disagree, I think people call the FLOP a lot irrelevant of bet size, call the turn a fair bit with some relevance to bet size and call the river not very often and probably irrelevant to betsize.

So we might as well make the pot as big as possible on the flop if this is true.

Probably even more so when 200 bb deep.

Good .

I like the raise size, keeps most customers without looking suspiciously trappy and gives us a chance to get a fair chunk of our stack in later as long as we don't check the turn

green cards - def 3bet pre!

as played bet like 50k on turn and like 100k on river imo, don't ever check the turn tho

love it all, river shove is probably the best betsize

+1

i was at the table and i said at the time that your betsizing on every street was pretty spot on, as it set up a perfect river shove.

well played hand imo (although i wish i had that flop vs Wadey later with the same hand)

ive seen this hand b4, vnh sir!

I am villain with  Ks Jh.  I kinda agree with Dubai... maybe raise the flop a little more to say 35k and bet 70k into 90k on turn with about 150k back.  Shove on river is 150kish into 230k or I c/jam turn which I think I do more often if the pot is bigger and It seems like I have to shove or fold.  I'd seen you make a few small bluffs earlier on but didn't think you would put your tourney life on the line with just the Ac on river when your stack before the hand was pretty reasonable which is why I thought I could call turn and c/f river to a jam.  It seems kinda weak but I felt that at the time you wouldn't shove river light, so better to call turn and c/f river to jam than c/ship turn...I dunno.
  For you, checking turn is grim for reasons explained in the thread and I don't think that there's a reason to bet rather than jam the river, so it's just a case of bet sizing on flop and turn to make me go broke.  Also like 3betting pre, sure I was jamming in yer eye around the corner but if I'm folding to a lot of 3bets then don't relent until I adjust. 
  As for the 84o hand, people go mental when they don't get a hand for 4 hours and I'm pretty damn good at spiking... ul.  nh here got yer own back!