blonde poker forum

Live DTD 20/20

19 players remain, our table is 6 handed at this time. 16 places paid.

We are 3 hands back from a break, in the last level the 2 chippys tangled in a pot with one going busto and leaving oppo in this pot 370k.

Avg stack is 85k, my stack 50.9k, blinds 3/6k 600 ante. Last 2 hands oppo has opened for 120k, and scooped the blinds and antes both times. (the next biggest stack at the table is 140kish) Oppo's image is very aggro, previous to this he was raising 2.4bb... laying down to 60/70% 3 bets and defo the most active player at the table.

Hand in question, oppo is utg and does his now standard open for 120k. Its folded round to me on the button with  Ad 3c.

The sb (90k) and bb (55k) are both tight, who are only going to get involved with a huge holding. So my line is, am i marginally ahead of oppo and is this a good/bad spot?

if you arent bothered about cashing then id snap call

certainly nothing wrong with it

120k?

its the bubble he is setting everyone all in

I always look to the upper pay echelons, this has cost me in the past though with 2 UKIPT seats up top in this I wasn't looking to min cash (which I did). The reason I post is I felt its a decent spot, though when the cards were flipped, oppo muttered under his breath 'chit call'.

I've enjoyed playing against said oppo in the past and i rate his game, results prove this. Is this a nit call? or is he just cheesed that someone has stood up to him? FWIW, he showed Qs 8h and i scoop.

I pass here.

I probably pass here myself, though I don't mind the call, esp if he's done this multiple times. Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range.

it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked

I suspected as much. Don't have stove on me. What % is it against random? Suspect it's slightly over 50%?

55.845 %

Cheers. If I know the guy has a random hand then I don't mind getting the money in here. Hand is a slight favourite, plus blinds and antes to beef up our odds even more. Doubt he has a random hand in this spot tho. But I still reckon it might be ever so slightly +ev.

This is exactly why I said I'd pass pre. We're on the button which means we've just passed the blinds and have a whole round to pick up a better hand where maniac is likely to be doing the same stuff.

Whilst blinds may be tight, they must be a consideration behind you aswell.

Oppo has shown down J9, 75 and q10 in previous hands where hes been pot committed. This was a major contributing factor to my play. I suspect hes going to raise everyhand unopened to him to this new 120k raise, oppo has possibly chatted with his pals at the break on how to steamroll the table.

 rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

erm ok

I don't get this guy? Think Gatso was spot on. We're likely to be ahead but not by much.

Assuming our read is correct I am happy to call even though it is pretty marginal.

At this stage with the payout structure which i presume to be very top heavy, I am taking every +cEV spot going and this appears to be +cEV to me.

we have less than ave

we have less than 10bb

we are way ahead of his range of any 2 cards

and you dont want to get it in? there is no post flop play left in this game

you would shove this hand bvb so whats the difference?

wow. are you serious with the bit in bold?

if you double bold the "of his range" bit yes

you are just trying to get out of your original dross post.

we are ahead - it is all we can ask when this short

what kind of edge are you looking for

what's this range that we're way ahead of? in fact never mind a range, please name a hand that doesn't have a 2 or a 3 in it that we're way ahead of

your definition of way ahead may not be the same as mine

hence why i correct to we are ahead thats all that counts

what range you calling with when you know (100%) he has atc

epic brag post. I probs call a8+ 66+

Gotta factor in that occasionally we'll have the worst hand here too. Think Pleno's range is more realistic.

Obv factored that in already, if we are deffo ahead why the hell would we fold.

The only other thing to consider is how often the blinds overcall in this spot.

soz, I have absolutely no idea what that first line means

I take it you can't name a hand we're way ahead of then let alone a range?

I call wider than pleno's range if it's a genuine atc, add in some lower aces and big kings and queens. quite likely that A3 falls into my range depending on how I feel at the time tbh

I pass A3 in the op's situation though as we're normally not looking at atc

"normally"

we have a defined situation where we can pretty much say it is atc

so you choose to disagree with me but not longy

you are comedy

err, wtf? pretty sure I disagree with longy



but whatever

a really easy pass

and that is why the raiser loves having people like you on his table.

When someone calls with AK he will have stolen enough blinds to take a "free" shot and will bink with his J3 anyway

lol - why should the raiser love having someone like me at his table. I call light in spots like these but i think you overrate the strength of A3o. Bit of a sweeping statement

so like I asked gatso  - whats your calling range?

calling "light" but passing A3 is a contradiction in terms

we are acting as if the guy has been open shoving every hand for 2 rounds. he has done it twice per the OP.

calling range is 66+, A9+ KQ maybe slightly lighter depending on how i feel at the time btw

villain holds say J6

A3 = 59%
A9 = 63%
KQ = 68%
77 = 70%

Now it strikes me that if you woke up with AK and he showed you QQ - you would call

so what are you waiting for?

your explanation has just lost me completely but hasn't levelled me into thinking calling is good here.

i don't care whether he has j6o or shows me QQ or whatever, i just don't think calling with A3 against his range of hands is good here.

his range of hands is any 2 cards - hence i used a randomiser to come up with J6

You are levelling yourself if you think that the %'s are wrong

even if you start to give him hands with strength (v's A3o)

K9 = 58%
KQ = 57%
JQs = 53%
98s = 51%

So basically what we are saying is that providing he doesnt have a pair or a bigger A - we are pretty much never worse than 50/50 - but yet you snap off a 50/50 if you know that is what you are getting (in the Ak v's QQ scenario)

and worst case he has the pair or a bigger A you have 30%

All I am trying to do is put some maths behind your mind set of what you "deem" to be a strong or weak hand. If you chose to ignore it then so be it

(http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/6966/dtdhanda3o.jpg) (http://img220.imageshack.us/i/dtdhanda3o.jpg/)

Q8o is right near the bottom of 50% pushing range, his range is probably wider.

This is deffo a cEV call.

^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations.

But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold?

Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call :)

ICM at this stage of a mtt, meh. The places before the final table are probably all min cashes and therefore ICM doesn't have a particularly strong effect.

It is bit like the 180 mans on stars that I just play a totally cEV game, when we are on the 18person bubble and I think most of the good regs do the same.

It looks like Guy has been flying the flag for the call and yes i still edge to this.

Many thanks for all the views/replies, it just highlights how marginal the call is.

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Yeah good point.

However, can it be dismissed entirely as 7th place in a 45 man is only a min-cash, and 9 handed we'd be taking ICM into account...

i think ICM could be taking it too far (as most people wont be thinking that sophisticated in this tourney), but on the same theme - people can be very bothered about "cashing" (i know its the same thing but on many levels it isnt) . This is what makes the villains play stand up here against many of his opponents in this particular tourney.

that's very generous of them

Did you only get the 30 day one,mug?