Title: Good spot/bad spot Post by: craigbetts on March 21, 2010, 11:41:39 AM Live DTD 20/20
19 players remain, our table is 6 handed at this time. 16 places paid. We are 3 hands back from a break, in the last level the 2 chippys tangled in a pot with one going busto and leaving oppo in this pot 370k. Avg stack is 85k, my stack 50.9k, blinds 3/6k 600 ante. Last 2 hands oppo has opened for 120k, and scooped the blinds and antes both times. (the next biggest stack at the table is 140kish) Oppo's image is very aggro, previous to this he was raising 2.4bb... laying down to 60/70% 3 bets and defo the most active player at the table. Hand in question, oppo is utg and does his now standard open for 120k. Its folded round to me on the button with Ad 3c. The sb (90k) and bb (55k) are both tight, who are only going to get involved with a huge holding. So my line is, am i marginally ahead of oppo and is this a good/bad spot? Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 21, 2010, 12:16:58 PM if you arent bothered about cashing then id snap call
certainly nothing wrong with it Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Kar l on March 21, 2010, 12:54:56 PM 120k?
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 21, 2010, 01:04:01 PM Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: craigbetts on March 21, 2010, 01:48:39 PM I always look to the upper pay echelons, this has cost me in the past though with 2 UKIPT seats up top in this I wasn't looking to min cash (which I did). The reason I post is I felt its a decent spot, though when the cards were flipped, oppo muttered under his breath 'chit call'.
I've enjoyed playing against said oppo in the past and i rate his game, results prove this. Is this a nit call? or is he just cheesed that someone has stood up to him? FWIW, he showed Qs 8h and i scoop. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: GreekStein on March 21, 2010, 02:14:12 PM I pass here.
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Cf on March 21, 2010, 02:21:02 PM I probably pass here myself, though I don't mind the call, esp if he's done this multiple times. Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range.
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: gatso on March 21, 2010, 02:25:02 PM Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range. it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Cf on March 21, 2010, 02:28:05 PM Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range. it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked I suspected as much. Don't have stove on me. What % is it against random? Suspect it's slightly over 50%? Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: gatso on March 21, 2010, 02:29:54 PM 55.845 %
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Cf on March 21, 2010, 02:32:59 PM 55.845 % Cheers. If I know the guy has a random hand then I don't mind getting the money in here. Hand is a slight favourite, plus blinds and antes to beef up our odds even more. Doubt he has a random hand in this spot tho. But I still reckon it might be ever so slightly +ev. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: GreekStein on March 21, 2010, 02:43:53 PM Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range. it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked This is exactly why I said I'd pass pre. We're on the button which means we've just passed the blinds and have a whole round to pick up a better hand where maniac is likely to be doing the same stuff. Whilst blinds may be tight, they must be a consideration behind you aswell. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: craigbetts on March 21, 2010, 02:46:06 PM Oppo has shown down J9, 75 and q10 in previous hands where hes been pot committed. This was a major contributing factor to my play. I suspect hes going to raise everyhand unopened to him to this new 120k raise, oppo has possibly chatted with his pals at the break on how to steamroll the table.
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 21, 2010, 02:46:41 PM Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range. it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao erm ok Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: GreekStein on March 21, 2010, 02:47:42 PM Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range. it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao erm ok I don't get this guy? Think Gatso was spot on. We're likely to be ahead but not by much. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Longy on March 21, 2010, 02:50:46 PM Assuming our read is correct I am happy to call even though it is pretty marginal.
At this stage with the payout structure which i presume to be very top heavy, I am taking every +cEV spot going and this appears to be +cEV to me. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 21, 2010, 03:04:13 PM Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range. it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao erm ok I don't get this guy? Think Gatso was spot on. We're likely to be ahead but not by much. we have less than ave we have less than 10bb we are way ahead of his range of any 2 cards and you dont want to get it in? there is no post flop play left in this game you would shove this hand bvb so whats the difference? Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: gatso on March 21, 2010, 03:07:59 PM Assuming he has some sort of standards for pushing tho I'm not sure A3 plays brilliantly against his range. it doesn't play brilliantly against his range even if he hasn't looked rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao erm ok I don't get this guy? Think Gatso was spot on. We're likely to be ahead but not by much. we have less than ave we have less than 10bb we are way ahead of his range of any 2 cards and you dont want to get it in? there is no post flop play left in this game you would shove this hand bvb so whats the difference? wow. are you serious with the bit in bold? Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 21, 2010, 03:13:36 PM if you double bold the "of his range" bit yes
you are just trying to get out of your original dross post. we are ahead - it is all we can ask when this short what kind of edge are you looking for Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: gatso on March 21, 2010, 03:16:36 PM what's this range that we're way ahead of? in fact never mind a range, please name a hand that doesn't have a 2 or a 3 in it that we're way ahead of
your definition of way ahead may not be the same as mine Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 21, 2010, 03:18:21 PM what's this range that we're way ahead of? in fact never mind a range, please name a hand that doesn't have a 2 or a 3 in it that we're way ahead of your definition of way ahead may not be the same as mine hence why i correct to we are ahead thats all that counts what range you calling with when you know (100%) he has atc Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: pleno1 on March 21, 2010, 03:20:40 PM epic brag post. I probs call a8+ 66+
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: GreekStein on March 21, 2010, 03:21:41 PM Gotta factor in that occasionally we'll have the worst hand here too. Think Pleno's range is more realistic.
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Longy on March 21, 2010, 03:27:03 PM Gotta factor in that occasionally we'll have the worst hand here too. Think Pleno's range is more realistic. Obv factored that in already, if we are deffo ahead why the hell would we fold. The only other thing to consider is how often the blinds overcall in this spot. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: gatso on March 21, 2010, 03:33:43 PM hence why i correct to we are ahead thats all that counts what range you calling with when you know (100%) he has atc soz, I have absolutely no idea what that first line means I take it you can't name a hand we're way ahead of then let alone a range? I call wider than pleno's range if it's a genuine atc, add in some lower aces and big kings and queens. quite likely that A3 falls into my range depending on how I feel at the time tbh I pass A3 in the op's situation though as we're normally not looking at atc Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 21, 2010, 03:37:08 PM hence why i correct to we are ahead thats all that counts what range you calling with when you know (100%) he has atc soz, I have absolutely no idea what that first line means I take it you can't name a hand we're way ahead of then let alone a range? I call wider than pleno's range if it's a genuine atc, add in some lower aces and big kings and queens. quite likely that A3 falls into my range depending on how I feel at the time tbh I pass A3 in the op's situation though as we're normally not looking at atc "normally" we have a defined situation where we can pretty much say it is atc so you choose to disagree with me but not longy you are comedy Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: gatso on March 21, 2010, 03:48:47 PM so you choose to disagree with me but not longy err, wtf? pretty sure I disagree with longy Assuming our read is correct I am happy to call even though it is pretty marginal. I pass A3 in the op's situation though as we're normally not looking at atc but whatever Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: BulldozerD on March 22, 2010, 07:37:48 AM a really easy pass
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 22, 2010, 09:02:02 AM a really easy pass and that is why the raiser loves having people like you on his table. When someone calls with AK he will have stolen enough blinds to take a "free" shot and will bink with his J3 anyway Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: BulldozerD on March 22, 2010, 10:00:50 AM a really easy pass and that is why the raiser loves having people like you on his table. When someone calls with AK he will have stolen enough blinds to take a "free" shot and will bink with his J3 anyway lol - why should the raiser love having someone like me at his table. I call light in spots like these but i think you overrate the strength of A3o. Bit of a sweeping statement Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 22, 2010, 10:11:16 AM a really easy pass and that is why the raiser loves having people like you on his table. When someone calls with AK he will have stolen enough blinds to take a "free" shot and will bink with his J3 anyway lol - why should the raiser love having someone like me at his table. I call light in spots like these but i think you overrate the strength of A3o. Bit of a sweeping statement so like I asked gatso - whats your calling range? calling "light" but passing A3 is a contradiction in terms Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: BulldozerD on March 22, 2010, 10:31:46 AM we are acting as if the guy has been open shoving every hand for 2 rounds. he has done it twice per the OP.
Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: BulldozerD on March 22, 2010, 10:33:58 AM we are acting as if the guy has been open shoving every hand for 2 rounds. he has done it twice per the OP. calling range is 66+, A9+ KQ maybe slightly lighter depending on how i feel at the time btw Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 22, 2010, 10:56:50 AM we are acting as if the guy has been open shoving every hand for 2 rounds. he has done it twice per the OP. calling range is 66+, A9+ KQ maybe slightly lighter depending on how i feel at the time btw villain holds say J6 A3 = 59% A9 = 63% KQ = 68% 77 = 70% Now it strikes me that if you woke up with AK and he showed you QQ - you would call so what are you waiting for? Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: BulldozerD on March 22, 2010, 11:04:13 AM your explanation has just lost me completely but hasn't levelled me into thinking calling is good here.
i don't care whether he has j6o or shows me QQ or whatever, i just don't think calling with A3 against his range of hands is good here. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 22, 2010, 11:21:34 AM your explanation has just lost me completely but hasn't levelled me into thinking calling is good here. i don't care whether he has j6o or shows me QQ or whatever, i just don't think calling with A3 against his range of hands is good here. his range of hands is any 2 cards - hence i used a randomiser to come up with J6 You are levelling yourself if you think that the %'s are wrong even if you start to give him hands with strength (v's A3o) K9 = 58% KQ = 57% JQs = 53% 98s = 51% So basically what we are saying is that providing he doesnt have a pair or a bigger A - we are pretty much never worse than 50/50 - but yet you snap off a 50/50 if you know that is what you are getting (in the Ak v's QQ scenario) and worst case he has the pair or a bigger A you have 30% All I am trying to do is put some maths behind your mind set of what you "deem" to be a strong or weak hand. If you chose to ignore it then so be it Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Longy on March 22, 2010, 11:41:44 AM (http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/6966/dtdhanda3o.jpg) (http://img220.imageshack.us/i/dtdhanda3o.jpg/)
Q8o is right near the bottom of 50% pushing range, his range is probably wider. This is deffo a cEV call. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: MC on March 22, 2010, 11:44:39 AM ^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations.
But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold? Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call :) Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Longy on March 22, 2010, 12:03:43 PM ^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations. But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold? Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call :) ICM at this stage of a mtt, meh. The places before the final table are probably all min cashes and therefore ICM doesn't have a particularly strong effect. It is bit like the 180 mans on stars that I just play a totally cEV game, when we are on the 18person bubble and I think most of the good regs do the same. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: craigbetts on March 22, 2010, 06:39:22 PM It looks like Guy has been flying the flag for the call and yes i still edge to this.
Many thanks for all the views/replies, it just highlights how marginal the call is. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: treefella on March 22, 2010, 11:18:51 PM (http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/6966/dtdhanda3o.jpg) (http://img220.imageshack.us/i/dtdhanda3o.jpg/) Q8o is right near the bottom of 50% pushing range, his range is probably wider. This is deffo a cEV call. what is this software and were can i get it ? looks handy . thanks. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Longy on March 22, 2010, 11:28:05 PM www.sngwiz.com
30 month free trial available. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: MC on March 23, 2010, 12:13:34 AM ^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations. But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold? Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call :) ICM at this stage of a mtt, meh. The places before the final table are probably all min cashes and therefore ICM doesn't have a particularly strong effect. It is bit like the 180 mans on stars that I just play a totally cEV game, when we are on the 18person bubble and I think most of the good regs do the same. Yeah good point. However, can it be dismissed entirely as 7th place in a 45 man is only a min-cash, and 9 handed we'd be taking ICM into account... Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: outragous76 on March 23, 2010, 12:36:07 AM ^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations. But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold? Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call :) ICM at this stage of a mtt, meh. The places before the final table are probably all min cashes and therefore ICM doesn't have a particularly strong effect. It is bit like the 180 mans on stars that I just play a totally cEV game, when we are on the 18person bubble and I think most of the good regs do the same. Yeah good point. However, can it be dismissed entirely as 7th place in a 45 man is only a min-cash, and 9 handed we'd be taking ICM into account... i think ICM could be taking it too far (as most people wont be thinking that sophisticated in this tourney), but on the same theme - people can be very bothered about "cashing" (i know its the same thing but on many levels it isnt) . This is what makes the villains play stand up here against many of his opponents in this particular tourney. Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: gatso on March 23, 2010, 09:43:39 AM www.sngwiz.com 30 month free trial available. that's very generous of them Title: Re: Good spot/bad spot Post by: Longy on March 23, 2010, 09:45:09 AM www.sngwiz.com 30 month free trial available. that's very generous of them Did you only get the 30 day one,mug? |