blonde poker forum

We're about 3x average and 4th in chips with ~70 left in a 180-man $3 rebuy (after the rebuy period).

No real read on villain except he is proudly displaying his BronzeStar so am assuming he's a random donk...

Sighaments @ the flop. Do we have to go for a check-fold here and give up a huge pot?

PokerStars Game #46352828031: Tournament #288744287, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2010/07/04 23:44:09 WET [2010/07/04 18:44:09 ET]
Table '288744287 4' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: Dowie2009 (16925 in chips)
Seat 3: supapa77 (38481 in chips)
Seat 4: Pepske (5790 in chips)
Seat 5: Kasssina (8110 in chips)
Seat 6: cisareo (2230 in chips)
Seat 7: epitomised (27707 in chips)
Seat 8: milan8050 (9300 in chips)
Seat 9: PaXaNiCH (7000 in chips)
Dowie2009: posts the ante 75
supapa77: posts the ante 75
Pepske: posts the ante 75
Kasssina: posts the ante 75
cisareo: posts the ante 75
epitomised: posts the ante 75
milan8050: posts the ante 75
PaXaNiCH: posts the ante 75
Kasssina: posts small blind 400
cisareo: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [Qh Qc]
epitomised: raises 917 to 1717
milan8050: folds
PaXaNiCH: folds
Dowie2009: folds
supapa77: raises 917 to 2634
Pepske: folds
Kasssina: folds
cisareo: folds
zebkiwi is connected
epitomised: raises 6557 to 9191
supapa77: calls 6557
*** FLOP *** [Jc 3s Ac]
epitomised:

Ugh this is such a yucky spot.

I probably check/fold, can't see villain bluffing us off the best hand often and if we do get it in we are behind the vast majority of the time.

honestly think u r in front here an def dont check fold! he cant have ace q an ace king higley ul as wouldnt he shove pre flop? this online toruney right ? Maybe ive got it all wrong as dont really play nl on,ine in tourneys! you can even make him pass kk! Random gut feeling guess he has 1010 but your stack siize is awkard as u cant bet half pot without being committed? going on bet 5k an pass if he reraises!

its a check fold for me - besides if you had AA you would check anyway so you might get to show down

btw - its not a cold call he 3 bet you pre

I just cant see what hand you are beating that he flats with (maybe JJ if he is terrbible?) - if he checks behind then maybe stab the turn?

yuck..hate this spot...and I always take a stab at it even though I know I probably shouldn't :(

fail

FYP

It's not a cold call.

epic fail for you IMO

cold means not previoulsy involved in the hand

You're right it's not a cold call, however...

[  ] We beat Jacks

 ;nana;

oh yeah - meh!

in which case def check and see if you can get to show down, just to confirm that you now beat nothing!

:-)

btw  sent you a pm on something else

Thanks, but I've already seen the monkey raping a frog thread, no need to link me to it so excitedly! :P

Pre-flop question: Am I a massive nit to just flat the 3-bet as a default?

anyone think that betting 4/5k ish has any merit?

very ballsy for him to bluff you there. I just hate to rollover with such a big pot out there.

but you are betting it into a 20k pot and it screams "jam and ill fold 99% of the time - the ohter 1% i have AA (ok so its like 12% but whatever)

a check call would look much stronger here - but you beat nothing.

I just dont think you can make a meaningful bet of your remaining stack

eww, what a horrible flop. Can't see how you're ever getting the chips in and winning here.

Check/fold I guess. Were you happy to get it in pre if he 5bet you? I'm assuming so...

Like this guy comment! quality ! Makes it even clearer to me why i dont play online anymore.....

 ;marks;

I guess we've already discussed our plan for what we do if villain bets but...

I check
Villain bets 10,400.

right or wrong, I probably do this as well.

I'd be spooked by the (not so cold) call and even more spooked by the flop that has us beating nothing so I c/f.

Still pretty well stacked for the rest of the tourney

Oops I missed a couple of comments.

Dino - I never flat here tbh. QQ too strong to do that imo. Villain tends to have a lot of shitty Aces and small pairs that I don't want to give good odds for them outflopping us. I might take this line with JJ.

Cf - Obviously getting it in to a 5-bet. QQ never really foldable in these turbos, except perhaps against good regs in obvious spots in the first couple of levels very occasionally...(although actually this is a rebuy so QQ is going in whatever)

There must be some value jamming the flop here its only a pot bet and our hand is well rep'd from the action pre and his line is pretty bizarre: min raise/flat.  We will never win the pot checking to him imo but will it make micro donks fold ax worried about being dominated??

yes but what hand are you repping?

I think you fold out Ax less than 10% of the time here, if they got to this point with Ax they ain't folding on an ace high board.

Yeah its probs pretty low but offset by the times he has 99/1010/KJ/QJ and cant let that go either ???

IDK the biggest problem is the standard in these games is so mixed his range can be either only the hands were crushed by AQ,AJ,JJ or a myriad of other Ax which he might let go and random Jx shit that he pays us off with.

Personally I'd have flatted his min raise pre then let it go but with 1/3 of my stack in the middle I want to have a chance to win the pot now.

No way I'm doing anything but jamming this in a $3r. People turn up with allllll sorts of random crap. He min 3bet pre so he's obv terrible, really wouldn't be suprised if you got snapped off by QJ here.

I don't see the merit in open jamming the flop. If we're gonna go with the hand, isn't a check/call check/reshove, check/shove-the-turn-if-he-checks-back a better line? At least then you give him a chance to bluff off if he has nothing rather than getting snapped by anything that beats you and folding out everything else.

what did you actually do?

i'd check/something - meh - depends on opponent as to whether i would call off a bet but probably would.

has to be better than betting out tho

The only merit to jamming is we never win the pot with the worst hand by checking, this is the only way we can as surely we get some Ax folds, we probably also get some calls from Jx too and some fishy 1010, 99 fd type hands because like I said this is a $3 tourney.  Obv we also get snapped off when were crushed but then we just need a Q or backdoor clubs ftw.

opponent is no way calling a 4bet with Ax to fold an ace high flop

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Meh, I don't think it is really.

If he's a random donk as James said in OP then I don't want to fold now because he could have just about anything from AA (if he's actually any good) to 23s. I just bet/sigh-cawl here.

are you for real?

The only hands we beat are TT-77 from his range. Therefore jamming is pointless as he only calls if we are beat. Check calling or checking jamming is merely a bluff catch and bluffing represents such a small part of his overall range, i would sooner keep the 20k back and double thru him later if he is such a tard!

Dude he could have anything. He just flatted a 4-bet ffs and is a 'random donk'.

I'd add 10J, QJ and KJ that we beat and would get it in, as well as a possible K10, KQ plus other random bullshit too.

narp!

happily folding this spot if i cant check it down

No way villain folds an Ace in this hand whatever the action.


I nearrrrrrrlllllly clicked fold multiple times.

fwiw villain had AJhh

I REALLLY REALLLY REALLLY think that you just jam over the 3bet pre in these tourneys - its a miles better option than 3betting so big because its effectively the same thing but jamming just takes this vomit inducing situation away from you

alternatively yyou could 4ball a bit smaller but again see you point you been 3balled by someone who looks like an idiot so just jam it in imo
he folds meh cool we win some chips
he calls it off with 99 cool gg sir wp
he has AA and snaps you off you were always gona go broke anyway

c/f

I don't think there's a hand he could have which he will turn into a bluff in such a low standard of play tourney

Explain to me how this is a terrible way to assess this hand.

The goal of a poker tournament is to get all this chips. I'm going to assume that we agree on this.

We have one pot size bet left, so our options are to check/fold or to shove

Shoving is +chipEV if he has us beat <47% of the time. So if we think that we have the best hand 47% of the time we can profitably shove. Given that he only has ~20% equity with the hands that he calls with that we're beating I'll take a conservative estimate that we need to have the best hand only ~42% of the time to make shoving +chipEV.

So if we think that we're good 42% of the time we should shove, if not we should check fold.

Explain to me how thats a bad way of analysing the hand than deciding whether or not it wins us chips 'cos if you've got a better way its gunna be pretty revolutionary.

dan mfkin morgan, might be the greatest.

Dan, as clever as all this maths is, what is we go all in and he has an ace, then we're in trouble no?

much better off to let the 1/3 of our chips go, and take the sub-optimal line because the guy probably is rubbish and we can double up to 40bigs when we find KK after he has peeled a open with 99? Cos I mean, thats definatley going to happen, and after all even if it doesn't we'll still probs manage a min-cash which we might not be able to do if we fold.

that is a terrible way of assesing this hand