Our UTG 4-bet gets flatted...

[DMorgan]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

[outragous76]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

[GreekStein]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Meh, I don't think it is really.

If he's a random donk as James said in OP then I don't want to fold now because he could have just about anything from AA (if he's actually any good) to 23s. I just bet/sigh-cawl here.

[outragous76]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Meh, I don't think it is really.

If he's a random donk as James said in OP then I don't want to fold now because he could have just about anything from AA (if he's actually any good) to 23s. I just bet/sigh-cawl here.

are you for real?

The only hands we beat are TT-77 from his range. Therefore jamming is pointless as he only calls if we are beat. Check calling or checking jamming is merely a bluff catch and bluffing represents such a small part of his overall range, i would sooner keep the 20k back and double thru him later if he is such a tard!

[GreekStein]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Meh, I don't think it is really.

If he's a random donk as James said in OP then I don't want to fold now because he could have just about anything from AA (if he's actually any good) to 23s. I just bet/sigh-cawl here.

are you for real?

The only hands we beat are TT-77 from his range. Therefore jamming is pointless as he only calls if we are beat. Check calling or checking jamming is merely a bluff catch and bluffing represents such a small part of his overall range, i would sooner keep the 20k back and double thru him later if he is such a tard!

Dude he could have anything. He just flatted a 4-bet ffs and is a 'random donk'.

I'd add 10J, QJ and KJ that we beat and would get it in, as well as a possible K10, KQ plus other random bullshit too.

[outragous76]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Meh, I don't think it is really.

If he's a random donk as James said in OP then I don't want to fold now because he could have just about anything from AA (if he's actually any good) to 23s. I just bet/sigh-cawl here.

are you for real?

The only hands we beat are TT-77 from his range. Therefore jamming is pointless as he only calls if we are beat. Check calling or checking jamming is merely a bluff catch and bluffing represents such a small part of his overall range, i would sooner keep the 20k back and double thru him later if he is such a tard!

Dude he could have anything. He just flatted a 4-bet ffs and is a 'random donk'.

I'd add 10J, QJ and KJ that we beat and would get it in, as well as a possible K10, KQ plus other random bullshit too.

narp!

happily folding this spot if i cant check it down

[MC]

No way villain folds an Ace in this hand whatever the action.

what did you actually do?

I nearrrrrrrlllllly clicked fold multiple times.

[MC]

fwiw villain had AJhh

[SuuPRlim]

I REALLLY REALLLY REALLLY think that you just jam over the 3bet pre in these tourneys - its a miles better option than 3betting so big because its effectively the same thing but jamming just takes this vomit inducing situation away from you

alternatively yyou could 4ball a bit smaller but again see you point you been 3balled by someone who looks like an idiot so just jam it in imo
he folds meh cool we win some chips
he calls it off with 99 cool gg sir wp
he has AA and snaps you off you were always gona go broke anyway

[Sack it off]

c/f

I don't think there's a hand he could have which he will turn into a bluff in such a low standard of play tourney

[DMorgan]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Explain to me how this is a terrible way to assess this hand.

The goal of a poker tournament is to get all this chips. I'm going to assume that we agree on this.

We have one pot size bet left, so our options are to check/fold or to shove

Shoving is +chipEV if he has us beat <47% of the time. So if we think that we have the best hand 47% of the time we can profitably shove. Given that he only has ~20% equity with the hands that he calls with that we're beating I'll take a conservative estimate that we need to have the best hand only ~42% of the time to make shoving +chipEV.

So if we think that we're good 42% of the time we should shove, if not we should check fold.

Explain to me how thats a bad way of analysing the hand than deciding whether or not it wins us chips 'cos if you've got a better way its gunna be pretty revolutionary.

[pleno1]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Explain to me how this is a terrible way to assess this hand.

The goal of a poker tournament is to get all this chips. I'm going to assume that we agree on this.

We have one pot size bet left, so our options are to check/fold or to shove

Shoving is +chipEV if he has us beat <47% of the time. So if we think that we have the best hand 47% of the time we can profitably shove. Given that he only has ~20% equity with the hands that he calls with that we're beating I'll take a conservative estimate that we need to have the best hand only ~42% of the time to make shoving +chipEV.

So if we think that we're good 42% of the time we should shove, if not we should check fold.

Explain to me how thats a bad way of analysing the hand 'cos if you've got a better way its gunna be pretty revolutionary.

dan mfkin morgan, might be the greatest.

[SuuPRlim]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Explain to me how this is a terrible way to assess this hand.

The goal of a poker tournament is to get all this chips. I'm going to assume that we agree on this.

We have one pot size bet left, so our options are to check/fold or to shove

Shoving is +chipEV if he has us beat <47% of the time. So if we think that we have the best hand 47% of the time we can profitably shove. Given that he only has ~20% equity with the hands that he calls with that we're beating I'll take a conservative estimate that we need to have the best hand only ~42% of the time to make shoving +chipEV.

So if we think that we're good 42% of the time we should shove, if not we should check fold.

Explain to me how thats a bad way of analysing the hand than deciding whether or not it wins us chips 'cos if you've got a better way its gunna be pretty revolutionary.

Dan, as clever as all this maths is, what is we go all in and he has an ace, then we're in trouble no?

much better off to let the 1/3 of our chips go, and take the sub-optimal line because the guy probably is rubbish and we can double up to 40bigs when we find KK after he has peeled a open with 99? Cos I mean, thats definatley going to happen, and after all even if it doesn't we'll still probs manage a min-cash which we might not be able to do if we fold.

[SuuPRlim]

With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Explain to me how this is a terrible way to assess this hand.

The goal of a poker tournament is to get all this chips. I'm going to assume that we agree on this.

We have one pot size bet left, so our options are to check/fold or to shove

Shoving is +chipEV if he has us beat <47% of the time. So if we think that we have the best hand 47% of the time we can profitably shove. Given that he only has ~20% equity with the hands that he calls with that we're beating I'll take a conservative estimate that we need to have the best hand only ~42% of the time to make shoving +chipEV.

So if we think that we're good 42% of the time we should shove, if not we should check fold.

Explain to me how thats a bad way of analysing the hand than deciding whether or not it wins us chips 'cos if you've got a better way its gunna be pretty revolutionary.

Dan, as clever as all this maths is, what is we go all in and he has an ace, then we're in trouble no?

much better off to let the 1/3 of our chips go, and take the sub-optimal line because the guy probably is rubbish and we can double up to 40bigs when we find KK after he has peeled a open with 99? Cos I mean, thats definatley going to happen, and after all even if it doesn't we'll still probs manage a min-cash which we might not be able to do if we fold.

that is a terrible way of assesing this hand