blonde poker forum

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Pros

- We have showdown value against 22/3x/4x
- We win ~$130 if he folds

Cons

- We have showdown value against 22/3x/4x
- We lose $377.50 if he calls

So obv comes down to how often he calls. And this is where it becomes very difficult to answer a heads up post because I've no idea what sort of dynamic you've got going.

Does he call with a bare K/Q, 9/10 hearts often enough?  Surely folds a J>worse?

Are you hoping this move helps out in future pots if he has you down a bit crazy?

In terms of the spot - this is one of those bets where you either have it or you dont

Lets assume "it" is the Ah  - as you probs dont do it with Th

So which Ah hands do you call pre with, and bet the turn with?

Would you not bet the flop with AhKx after he checks?

i think this should get thru most of the time here - unless you are repping his hand

if he calls its prob a spite call with KK or QQ

he will call with 10h, surely? You're bet on the river is wayyy too big for me.

I doubt that he has a bare J as he 3bet from OOP pre-flop so I'd expect to be well behind here and probably called by a fair few hands....it's the size of your bet that would make me suspicious more than anything. Why that much on the river?

Looks like a pretty shitty idea to me although I'm sure you had your reasons. Misclick maybe.

Whatever your reads are on oppo surely isn't as important here as what he thinks of you?

Are you ever really doing this with the Ahrt ?

Do you often make massive overshoves with da nuts?

Are you ever making this spew with anything but da nuts?

I can't see him calling you without a heart in his hand but tbh I'd struggle to pass if I had any flush here.

There's a pretty good chance of being spite called by AK here anyway just because villain can't figure out wtf you're up to and wants to have a look.

Hands that check the flop and flat that turn are;

AQ w/Ah, AQ w/o Ah, AJ w/ Ah, QJ, AT w/ Ah, TT with Th, QT with Th, QT no FD and AT no FD

I just dunno what you get to fold here. Also disagree with this being a spot to overbet bluff, in this spot "hero's gonna hero". When you overbet jam you are pretty much only repping 9hTh. I think an 80% pot bet will be just as effective and will fold out the hands that were too stubborn to fold on the turn such as  QT with no FD and QJ no FD.
So basically I think the hands you are attempting to fold out with an overbet jam are the same range of hands that fold to an 80% pot bet.
I considering pocket pairs like 88 99 77 with a heart but can't be sure he calls the turn as he would have a tough river spot if he improves.

Disclaimer: Found it difficult thinking that hand through so may very well change my post later on today

I have no idea of you image or the dynamic with this guy/your history with him, but if shove polarizes you then I dont think its a good play because i've you'r literally polarized to nuts or air he can flick a call in with virtually any heart profitably. i.e there are loads more combo's of bluffs in ur range now as you rep such a narrow value range.

If you're not polarized here, as in could feesibly be shoving for value with  Th  9h 8h etc, or a really cool merge with say the  4h then its definatley a much more profitable play.

Its tricky to accuratley asses a range here because he has high 3bet % in history but hasnt been 3betting at all this match (even though soon in) i spose hands like  Th Td   9s 9h are obv a worry, but i really dont see him 3betting any hand with the  Ahrt that doesn't bet the flop? seems odd he'd  3bet  Ahrt 6s/ Ahrt 7s, and really strange that any suited  Ahrt combo wont bet the flop.  And on the same tune he has AK in this spot hardly even. I think the hand's he'll show up with most likely are JJ/TT/99/88 with hearts but ofc there has to a bunch of 78/98/67 combo's in there but again he isnt likely to 3ball  7h 8h and not cbet the flop and the likihood of him 3balling offsuit connecter I ASSUME will be lower. And its tough to think of other heart comb o's in his range aside from the lower pairs....

In answer to OP

Pro's * -
He has only a few flushes in his range.
He doesnt have that many non-flush value hands either (aside from TT/88 etc w/ no hearts)
Its fantastic for you to have a range to shove with on these kind of boards, so if you are polarised now you wont be in the next spot
YOU HAVE NO SHOWDOWN VALUE AT ALL.
Cons * -
Ridic high varience
If you are polarised here then he could even hero you with 77+ no heart


My vote. Good idea.

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

TAG villain is almost never c/c'ing turn and also c/c'ing river with the Ah and I think its unlikely that he's checking the river with the Th aswell.

Looks fine to me

There is definatley a difference. If he has nutz or air here then there is no difference because any hand with a heart or even most Ks can call profitably.
If he has a range here that includes a shove for value with smaller flushes then the extra $240 makes its  very difficult to call profitably with the  7h, or  Qd Jd, or even  Jc Jd.

wanna play some heads up? :)

 rotflmfao rotflmfao

I doubt villain is perceptive enough to check a flush draw for deception on the flop so I don't think he has a 2 card flush hand and it's likely he'd cbet any Ah hand on the flop as well.  Likewise I don't think you can have these hands in your range although you are more likely to hold the Ah than him on the flop.

I think if you bet the turn you should be betting every river since when he checks that flop imo he likely holds a hand he doesn't want to be blown off of that has decent showdown value vs you because most kings and air hands he would just bet.  So he can have something like 99-JJ, QJ QT Q9 64 K3s etc that sort of thing.  But these are all hands he's going to call the turn with and can get folds on the river quite a lot with.  Sooo since you checked back flop I think on the turn once he calls he can still have JJ/QJ hands but more likely holdings are prob Qx type hands with either a straight/flush/both draw.

So on the river theres 32*2 + 36*2 = 136 in the pot.  I think our value range for a smaller bet could be as wide as AT here given that his range is pretty weak and pretty queen heavy IMO.  I guess we are more likely to have the Ah and he's more likely to have the Th but he doesn't have the Th nearly as much as we have the Ah.  I think he very rarely has the Ah.  I think a bet of $118 or even $74 or something gives you more fold equity  because it is pretty rare for us to overbet jam with the Ah if he views us as a regular and also it is particularly suspicious when he is probably aware that his range is weak.  So I wouldn't be surprised if he looked you up with QJ and I think I like the line overall if we bet smaller on this river.  I think any river is a good river for us to bet as well which makes the turn bet good.

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?

timing tells are pretty important here.

Probably to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes

well, obv the villian doesnt know we are trying to make him fold if he did its pretty easy for him to call lol

THIS particular bet is deisgned to make villian fold because we have made it to the river with fk all of a hand. But in terms of our overall range if we can shove any flush 8h+ for value here and he calls with QJ then we will defo show a profit. incidently if he does call with QJ then its a loosing play regardless because we are capable of shoving a much wider value range than just the  Ahrt (occosionally the  Th) irrespective of whether he calls here or not.

ANYWAYS, mr. keys results pls?

tbf, he was pot controlling so fairly safe to say he takes this line with other weak made

I agree that he very rarely has a flush on the turn and that he rarely has the  Ahrt on the river.
As a side topic, would you consider a shove in this spot as played if you have the  5h?

if you reach the river here as played with the  6h /  7h /  8h ?

That's pretty deep thinking. wp.

There is a significant proportion of this hand that doesnt require deep thinking

By overjamming he pretty much polarises his range to air or Ah. Therefore providing his line suggests a degree of Ah and he doesnt believe his opponent has it, then this bet works, unless your opponent falls into the spite call category (an even then its a profitable play for all the times he has it).

As an aside can you "spite call" in cash with AK here? 

In my head spite calling was a tourney thing where you called in hands which you probably shouldn't on ICM grounds, usually after months of history...  Well that is when I do them anyway.  Deliberately reducing your chances because it reduces your oppos chances too.

If people do genuinely "spite" call AK here, I am going to have to start shoving a much wider range of hearts.

 

I have been practising this assigning hand ranges by hand combo's. I'm just starting out so defs poss I can make some stupid mistakes so I have gone through the hand from start to finish (usually would just start from the river as up until then it's obvious).
I have done this for my own benefit aswell as others for practice and I have nobody to be able to tell me whether what I'm doing is correct regards to how many combos etc.

I would also be interested to see if this is a profitable bluff.

I decided to say he folds all of his small pocket pair flush draws on the turn as realistically I think it will be a bit of a gamble for him.



Ok you say in past matches he has had a very high 3b %; to me in a HU match a high 3b % would be about 24%.

24% of hands is 44+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

In this range there are 11 pocket pairs, this is 66 combos of pairs + 384 non paired hands so 450 combos in his range pre flop

you call and the flop comes QK4 with a FD.

We can now remove the hands from his range that he doesn't CB. AA KK QQ 44 so so we can take (24) combos of pairs out his range and we can remove AK(12) all of the Axhh (9) JT(16) QK(12) AJ (16) J9hh + J8 hh (2) T9hh (1)
KJ (12) KT (12) K9 (12)

The total of these hands that have been ruled out on the flop is 128 combos. This leaves 322 combos he could possibly have



Soooo out of the hands left what hands call on the turn? There are only 3 combos each of A8o A9o AJ AQ which have the Ah (12) (think the villain would lead with AT) QxTh (3) QJ (12) JJ (3) TxTh (1)

Total of 31 combos


On the river he folds to this jam with QJ (9) JJ (3)


So out of 31 hands 12 of them fold. This means our villain is folding 39% of the time.

If you worked out that the villain needs to fold more than 72% of the time to make this bluff profitable then if my calculations are correct it doesn't come close.

I don't know how overjamming polarises his range to air or Ah considering hero has already posted he wouldn't overjam Ah. I think we should bet, but I don't see the extra benefit in overjamming. In fact it could be the catalyst for hero/spite calls. So the deep thinking in the hand is whether putting in the extra chips actually creates more heroes than it deters and is therefore an unprofitable use of those extra chips. Can you price somebody out of being a hero? And I don't think the let's jam because we could have Ah and if he doesn't have Ah well there you go then strategy solves that problem.

good idea vs a reg imo

This reminds me of my WSOP main event exit hand, expect to get called by a black pocket pair :D

Why do we rule out him C-betting the flop with AhQx or am I reading SackItoff's post wrong??  I c-bet that flop with AhQx 60-70% of the time I think.  Given he hasn't 3bet pre a lot in this session I think you can probably reduce that a little % a little too.  Maybe somewhere in the region of 18%??

FWIW I think it is fine but it is one of those situations where you need a good temperament and to know yourself because when you are called and behind it may cause an emotional player to go on tilt.

Your wsop exit actually swayed my thoughts on this hand before I posted.

It would appear that there can be a fine line between value shoving and bluff shoving.

It isn't especially pertinent to the hand but I think it needs pointing out that villain isn't 3 betting the top 24% of hands if he has a 3 bet % of 24.  Some hands are too strong to fold but not strong enough to 3 bet (66, KJs, A8s just for example) so he's more likely to flat them although will 3 bet them sometimes.  The remaining few % of hands will be made up of predominantly low suited connectors/one/two/three gappers etc and will likely be very game flow dependant.

opponents timing tell too I meant.

I really disagree that this spot as a stnd polarises your hand to  Ahrt or AIR ??? If you have a built a range here then surely 2/3/4th nut flushes + cool merge combos like  4h x or even  Jd Jc....

I dont think that overshove bluffing/value betting is +EV at all in spots where you're polarized.

just spotted a mistake in my last post, I added up AA KK QQ 44 to 24 when it's infact 15 on the flop.

Yeah I just ruled out so many hands n the flop once he checks, and thinking about it he can't just check fold that flop the majority of the time, he has to bet more hands. However he may also pot control with top pair which I disregarded.

I guess you need more reads on his post flop play to determine whether this is going to work most the time.

BTW whats the formula for working out what % you need your opponent to fold to make the bluff profitable? ie how did you get to >72%?

tytyty

loled really hard at this lols

u bluffed ahahahahhahahahahahahahah

Thats really cool. I wish i was better at poker lol

i wish i was james keys

You dudes need to start speaking fecking English.............

Agreed an i would call if im the other guy...........

Seeing as how he had the nuts I'm inclined to believe you.

:D

+1,000,000

AGREED