Good idea/bad idea?

[pleno1]

timing tells are pretty important here.

[DMorgan]

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?

Probably to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes

[SuuPRlim]

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

There is definatley a difference. If he has nutz or air here then there is no difference because any hand with a heart or even most can call profitably.
If he has a range here that includes a shove for value with smaller flushes then the extra $240 makes its  very difficult to call profitably with the  , or  , or even  .

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?

well, obv the villian doesnt know we are trying to make him fold if he did its pretty easy for him to call lol

THIS particular bet is deisgned to make villian fold because we have made it to the river with fk all of a hand. But in terms of our overall range if we can shove any flush + for value here and he calls with QJ then we will defo show a profit. incidently if he does call with QJ then its a loosing play regardless because we are capable of shoving a much wider value range than just the   (occosionally the  ) irrespective of whether he calls here or not.

ANYWAYS, mr. keys results pls?

[Rupert]

tbf, he was pot controlling so fairly safe to say he takes this line with other weak made

[SuuPRlim]

OK, thanks everyone for your posts, some really good analysis ITT, I don't wanna put an end to it so please feel free to do some aftertiming once I post these results

Still, the results haven't really confirmed anything, I'm betting $345 into $136 so only need to win >72% of the time to turn a profit, and he had the nuts this time, who's to say how often he has the Ah and it is still unknown whether he makes the hero call with AQo, QJ or the . Also, metagame. Good bluff imo

I agree that he very rarely has a flush on the turn and that he rarely has the  on the river.
As a side topic, would you consider a shove in this spot as played if you have the  ?

if you reach the river here as played with the  /  /  ?

[MANTIS01]

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?

Probably to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes

That's pretty deep thinking. wp.

[outragous76]

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?

Probably to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes

That's pretty deep thinking. wp.

There is a significant proportion of this hand that doesnt require deep thinking

By overjamming he pretty much polarises his range to air or Ah. Therefore providing his line suggests a degree of Ah and he doesnt believe his opponent has it, then this bet works, unless your opponent falls into the spite call category (an even then its a profitable play for all the times he has it).

[Doobs]

As an aside can you "spite call" in cash with AK here? 

In my head spite calling was a tourney thing where you called in hands which you probably shouldn't on ICM grounds, usually after months of history...  Well that is when I do them anyway.  Deliberately reducing your chances because it reduces your oppos chances too.

If people do genuinely "spite" call AK here, I am going to have to start shoving a much wider range of hearts.

 

[Sack it off]

I have been practising this assigning hand ranges by hand combo's. I'm just starting out so defs poss I can make some stupid mistakes so I have gone through the hand from start to finish (usually would just start from the river as up until then it's obvious).
I have done this for my own benefit aswell as others for practice and I have nobody to be able to tell me whether what I'm doing is correct regards to how many combos etc.

I would also be interested to see if this is a profitable bluff.

I decided to say he folds all of his small pocket pair flush draws on the turn as realistically I think it will be a bit of a gamble for him.



Ok you say in past matches he has had a very high 3b %; to me in a HU match a high 3b % would be about 24%.

24% of hands is 44+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

In this range there are 11 pocket pairs, this is 66 combos of pairs + 384 non paired hands so 450 combos in his range pre flop

you call and the flop comes QK4 with a FD.

We can now remove the hands from his range that he doesn't CB. AA KK QQ 44 so so we can take (24) combos of pairs out his range and we can remove AK(12) all of the Axhh (9) JT(16) QK(12) AJ (16) J9hh + J8 hh (2) T9hh (1)
KJ (12) KT (12) K9 (12)

The total of these hands that have been ruled out on the flop is 128 combos. This leaves 322 combos he could possibly have



Soooo out of the hands left what hands call on the turn? There are only 3 combos each of A8o A9o AJ AQ which have the Ah (12) (think the villain would lead with AT) QxTh (3) QJ (12) JJ (3) TxTh (1)

Total of 31 combos


On the river he folds to this jam with QJ (9) JJ (3)


So out of 31 hands 12 of them fold. This means our villain is folding 39% of the time.

If you worked out that the villain needs to fold more than 72% of the time to make this bluff profitable then if my calculations are correct it doesn't come close.

[MANTIS01]

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?

Probably to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes

That's pretty deep thinking. wp.

There is a significant proportion of this hand that doesnt require deep thinking

By overjamming he pretty much polarises his range to air or Ah. Therefore providing his line suggests a degree of Ah and he doesnt believe his opponent has it, then this bet works, unless your opponent falls into the spite call category (an even then its a profitable play for all the times he has it).

I don't know how overjamming polarises his range to air or Ah considering hero has already posted he wouldn't overjam Ah. I think we should bet, but I don't see the extra benefit in overjamming. In fact it could be the catalyst for hero/spite calls. So the deep thinking in the hand is whether putting in the extra chips actually creates more heroes than it deters and is therefore an unprofitable use of those extra chips. Can you price somebody out of being a hero? And I don't think the let's jam because we could have Ah and if he doesn't have Ah well there you go then strategy solves that problem.

[NigDawG]

good idea vs a reg imo

[Cottonbud]

This reminds me of my WSOP main event exit hand, expect to get called by a black pocket pair

[redarmi]

Why do we rule out him C-betting the flop with AhQx or am I reading SackItoff's post wrong??  I c-bet that flop with AhQx 60-70% of the time I think.  Given he hasn't 3bet pre a lot in this session I think you can probably reduce that a little % a little too.  Maybe somewhere in the region of 18%??

FWIW I think it is fine but it is one of those situations where you need a good temperament and to know yourself because when you are called and behind it may cause an emotional player to go on tilt.

[EvilPie]

This reminds me of my WSOP main event exit hand, expect to get called by a black pocket pair

Your wsop exit actually swayed my thoughts on this hand before I posted.

It would appear that there can be a fine line between value shoving and bluff shoving.

[Rupert]

Ok you say in past matches he has had a very high 3b %; to me in a HU match a high 3b % would be about 24%.

24% of hands is 44+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

It isn't especially pertinent to the hand but I think it needs pointing out that villain isn't 3 betting the top 24% of hands if he has a 3 bet % of 24.  Some hands are too strong to fold but not strong enough to 3 bet (66, KJs, A8s just for example) so he's more likely to flat them although will 3 bet them sometimes.  The remaining few % of hands will be made up of predominantly low suited connectors/one/two/three gappers etc and will likely be very game flow dependant.