blonde poker forum

OK 312 left. 306 get paid. Haven't been too active- been stuck on 20 bigs for a while. What's your play on the bubble here?

PokerStars Game #47311146198: Tournament #323010571, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2010/07/26 23:02:15 WET [2010/07/26 18:02:15 ET]
Table '323010571 117' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: pascha25 (16968 in chips)
Seat 2: Picasso 2 (4694 in chips)
Seat 3: dns1984 (24414 in chips)
Seat 4: B-boy-all-in (19177 in chips)
Seat 5: skJacob (12133 in chips)
Seat 6: Zakenayo (67936 in chips)
Seat 7: Tonie234 (13339 in chips)
Seat 8: George2Loose (10856 in chips)
Seat 9: slazoner (7300 in chips)
pascha25: posts the ante 75
Picasso 2: posts the ante 75
dns1984: posts the ante 75
B-boy-all-in: posts the ante 75
skJacob: posts the ante 75
Zakenayo: posts the ante 75
Tonie234: posts the ante 75
George2Loose: posts the ante 75
slazoner: posts the ante 75
Zakenayo: posts small blind 400
Tonie234: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to George2Loose [7s 7d]
George2Loose ?

Well, you're not on 20 bigs now. Shove or fold. Think I prefer a shove. Don't think you'll be getting called too light.

Looks pretty close, either is fine really (shove or fold)...

fold

fold for me

folddd

only thing making me fold is the sb's stack

fold

Fold

ship

min raise ! an then ill c what happens...........

shove, still 300 left, no real big difference in payout from 300th to 10th, thts the way i see it anyway rather take a chance to double up rather than worry about the min cash.

I would ship not really studied ICM bbl effects before though, but shipping is deffo +cEV.

I was fairly curious to see if it was a +cEV shove.  I put in some fairly conservative ranges into SNGPT (doesn't do permutations of overalls).  Everyones 88+ AQ+, shorty is 44+ AT+, SB/BB call 77 too.  77 is a +T263.2 shove and it reckons Push hands: 33+,ATo+,A2s+,KTo+,K5s+,QTo+,Q8s+,JTo,J8s+,T8s+,98s (23.5%) are all +EV.  So Longy wasn't lying :D

So basically if shoving wins us 1/4 a BB best case it's gotta be an easy fold on the bubble I think?

Isn't completely out of the question to stall down see if people bust then shove

Jamming very quickly. If everyone else wants to tighten their calling ranges on the bubble thats cool, we'lll just take the blinds.

We should be looking for spots to exploit the bubble rather than try to limp into a mincash imo.

GAMBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

I honestly think the fact it's not a good shove money wise, its so little money in relation to first prize I just jam, especially as others will fold AK and 88 99 and TT

This I agree with.  Only the SB can call us and not get hurt if he loses.  On the other hand, we're UTG.  I probably shove anyway.

IM ALL IN....

I doubt people will be folding AK tbh.

i guess this is one of those does cashing bother you things

my take on this situation is, when you arent in a position to abuse the bubble, then respect the bubble

you are very short, but will probs certainly cash. once the blinds pass you are gonna have circa 10bb's

so for those who are saying "gambolllll" - well lock up the $75, come back tomorrow, and as soon as the bubble bursts open jam overy opportunity - its the same as jamming here but risk free

PEOPLE FOLD AK?

surely that never happens?

"explotiing the bubble" doesn't mean engaging in ICM suicide, this is a snap fold

Depends how I'm feeling at the time.

I sometimes shove and sometimes fold. I'm not bothered about other stacks only the fact that I've got a pair.

I know I'm getting called by all the pairs that crush me. Pretty sure that the pairs I crush will fold. 77 not much different to 22 here tbh other than the extra couple of % in a flip.

If I get called I'm just hoping I get to race against AQ, AK poss KQ.

Really just comes down to how long it is since I last won a pot and if I'm feeling a bit tilted.

Sorry to not be able to give a definite yes/no but there really isn't one for me.

thanks so far guys. For those that fold what range of hands do you shove?

prob 1010+ aq+ maybe 99.

QQ+ and AK

JJ would cause me trouble

like someone pointed out - the sb is huge and could easily spite call a KQ type holding - or any Ax

Would fold.  Shoving 10's or better.

Never ever folding JJ here

This ^^^

And like another poster mentioned, you don't have 20 bbs now, you have like 13 and an m of 6 and soon to be in the blinds.

Get this in already and play FTW.

I'd be shoving 66+ and aj std up i think here, maybe even bare a10 and any pp if im feeling frisky on a particularly tight table.

Never folding 99 or AQ

99 and AQ are easy shoves for me.

77 / 88 are a bit meh.

22 through to 66 slightly more meh but still come down to how i feel at the time.

As I've already said there isn't a great deal of difference between 22 and 77 here. 22 through to 66 all probably fold to our shove anyway.

99 is very different as you can get called and be in great shape.

99+ AQ+ AJs+ dwell sigh fold 88

So basically what Rupert said :)

Totally disagree esp with sb stack in this case.

Amount of time some uber donk calls with a2-a6 amazes me also in this sort of spot.

Ok so 77 plays better in these spots. Against most people's calling ranges though I still maintain what I said.

We can't let one person's stack influence our decision here. If there's 3 or 4 big stacks then fair enough but my range is never being swayed just because of one person.

If we think that the big stack or anyone else may call ridic light then we should just widen our range accordingly.

We should be adding A7 to our shoving range if we expect to get called by so many hands that are worse.

Almost every live MTT I've played I've seen someone make a ridiculous raise/fold with AK, normally <20BBs deep.

Obv in this tournament nobody is folding AK though

I don't see how with such a tight shoving range we can ever win these comps, it's def mass exploitable if ppl are playing so snug on the bubble.

This is wonderful for those like me who like to accumulate on the bubble to build a stack for the ft.

I don't think shoving a7 is a consideration obv, i presume you suggested this as i mentioned on occasion shipping any pp and a10+ on occassion on a snug table, tbh i'd need it to be rock city from utg with this range, a7 wld just be ridic aggro.

Matthew Russell doesnt win comps, but if he did they would be 25 cent sit n go's!

You seriously overestimate how much winning this hand matters and how little cashing in tournaments like these matter, there's still 300 people left and finishing just ITM and finishing like 50th makes absolutely no difference, therefore it's important you cash and then it's all about accumulation.

I'd understand if it was a reasonable +cEV play but the fact is it's not even that and sure most of the time you shove everyone folds, you go from 11k to 13k, hardly going to change the situation, I mean like, you'll probs be ITM next hand, and then you'll be on SB/BTN 1st 2 hands after getting in, I'm fairly certain thats a way better spot than here.

I think AQ/99+ is the absolute bottom of shoving and I don't even mind just opening in this spot with most of these hands and raise/call

is about maximizing EV IMO!  also I don't know what being exploitable has to do with anything?

this

I don't think there is much point in dragging this on, but i am overjoyed at how nitty ppl are in these spots, it'd def a +ev spot for me and it's not even that close.

Because if we 'exploit' such situations on the bubble, and others don't, and also don't call us light enough, it's certainly +ev, especially in terms of playing ftw.

What this??

You are advocating with this stack of M=6, to raise call? We should be shoving all of our range or just folding, never ever raising ever.

glad it provoked a bit of debate.

I time banked to 1 and shoved. Spinks (Bas) was on chat with me and told me it was probably a fold (before I got called)

One of the bigger stacks (not sb) called with Queens. No 7 and unfort the 90 seconds was not enough as I pure bubbled to finish 307th.

good post

According to Sheets, the optimal pushing range in your spot is TT+ A9s+ A5s/A4s, AJo+ KTs+ KQo QJs

66-99 is much better than pushing a4s, ridic range.

Depends how many shoves are getting through on your table? how many times have you shoved / been involved in ,in the last hour? are the bigstacks happy to lay down 88s and aq aj? in my opnion if these are in your favour you have to push because as said before they payout structure isnt amazing for 300th place and by folding your way to 300th your crippling your chances of going deep