Title: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: SuuPRlim on July 29, 2010, 03:38:53 PM Found myself in a pretty nasty spot last night
Playing £2/£5 7handed. Game is Very loose but villian in this hand is the table mega rock. played a few hands with him alredy which make a big impact on this hand He limped 5c 6c preflop and called a 5x raise from me out of the BB (3handed to the flop) he called two streets on a 55J 2 board and checked the river (7) back. I had AA. He flopped a set of Jacks on a JAQ 2 spades board and check called flop, check called turn, (brick) then c/folded on a K river (I had air - didnt show) SO he doesnt do much betting without a pretty good hand Hero - £1300 Villian - £1200 three limper to my button straddle (£10) I make it £55 on the button with Qd Jd one caller he calls 1 fold flop comes a rather favourable 9d Td Jc. Checks to me, I bet £115. He calls. Turn comes 7c he checks. I bet £225. He moves in without missing a heartbeat for pretty much bang on £1,000. Thoughts? Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: DMorgan on July 29, 2010, 03:53:20 PM From my experience is really tight passive guys like this one seems to be, he has a straight here a huge %age of the time.
Against this guy I think theres more merit to checking back the turn than there is to betting. He can't have too many Adxd hands in his range, I can't see him flatting pre with A8dd or AKdd so we're not really getting another street of value from a whole lot worse on the turn. As played, as much as it sucks we've gotta let this go I think Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: SuuPRlim on July 29, 2010, 04:04:24 PM From my experience is really tight passive guys like this one seems to be, he has a straight here a huge %age of the time. Against this guy I think theres more merit to checking back the turn than there is to betting. He can't have too many Adxd hands in his range, I can't see him flatting pre with A8dd or AKdd so we're not really getting another street of value from a whole lot worse on the turn. As played, as much as it sucks we've gotta let this go I think YES. When i had the chips in my hand i regretted it. Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Cf on July 29, 2010, 04:55:44 PM Fold. You're getting 2:1 on a call but not quite the price from the pot.
Check turn. Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: stato_1 on July 29, 2010, 09:29:15 PM Agree with check turn, fold now. Though in OP would it not be more appropriate to say he doesn't do much betting when he does very strong hands, as this is what we've seen?
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Rupert on July 29, 2010, 09:56:19 PM think betting turn is better than checking, easy fold now. dont think you're getting check/raised a huuge amount and think you very rarely fold the best hand if you do. also feel that if you check behind turn and make your hand you aren't winning a ton more if any
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: pleno1 on July 29, 2010, 10:39:22 PM qc xc maybe. surely you just assign a range and pokerstove ? check odds / pot then see if its a call or not?
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: SuuPRlim on July 30, 2010, 07:35:45 AM but everyone understands how painful this is to fold in a live situation yes?
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Cf on July 30, 2010, 11:12:40 AM qc xc maybe. surely you just assign a range and pokerstove ? check odds / pot then see if its a call or not? That's what I did. Against only 8x we're about 30%. I didn't factor in other hands because of description of villain which implies he pretty much always has it here. Guess he could have 2p+ or better fds. Don't know how much difference this would make but I doubt it turns it into a call. Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: SuuPRlim on July 30, 2010, 09:23:13 PM but everyone understands how painful this is to fold in a live situation yes? drunken post ignore Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: buzzharvey22 on July 31, 2010, 02:37:38 AM dnt think we can say "he played a set like tht last time, he will play a set like tht again" if hes not the worst player in the world surely he must have some different move rather than literally check calling everything and believing.
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Whollyflush on August 04, 2010, 02:42:51 AM check turn.
by betting you fold out all the hands you beat, whilst getting in trouble when he has an 8/pulls a crazy bluff a tiny % of the time. After that this is simply a pokerstove jobby. Haven't done it myself but im assuming u have around about 25-30%% equity against a range consisting solely of 8's. Id also guess your gettting slightly less than 2:1 so you would need around 35% equity to call. This is why betting the turn is horrific :) Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Whollyflush on August 04, 2010, 02:50:52 AM Actually against a range consisting only of 8's. u have 31% equity and the pot size is £1750 and its £805 to call. Your getting slightly better than 2:1 (where you need 33% equity) so i think this is just about a call, given i think theres at least a 1% chance hes retarded and shoves a set here or is slightly tilted from been pushed around.
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Cf on August 04, 2010, 10:48:37 AM Actually against a range consisting only of 8's. u have 31% equity and the pot size is £1750 and its £805 to call. Your getting slightly better than 2:1 (where you need 33% equity) so i think this is just about a call, given i think theres at least a 1% chance hes retarded and shoves a set here or is slightly tilted from been pushed around. Have done some more numbers. Given your quoted 31% equity and the £805 into £1750. £805 into £1750 is a price of 2.17:1 from the pot. 31% equity gives us odds of 2.23:1. That makes it just about a fold. Factor in random spazzy bluffs which might occur rarely and it probably moves it to break even or just about a call. I still fold it though. Don't think there's anything wrong with the call but it's high variance. Guess it comes down to personal preference/circumstances. Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Whollyflush on August 04, 2010, 02:26:44 PM yea i didnt calculate it extacly as you have (my bad).
I still feel its a call, as theres a chance hes feeling pushed around and theres at least 1% chance hes bluffing/semi-bluffing. Ive seen it in live cash games expecting the nit to show up with 8x, when they've just completely spazzed. Also if your betting the turn with a hand with this much equity, instead of checking the turn it feels naughty sacrificing 0EV when having such good equity. Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: SuuPRlim on August 05, 2010, 06:09:43 PM How many 8s do we put in villains range here.
68/78/89/8T/J8/Q8 suited, and 88 and A8 from his preflop limp call ok. I think he is very inlikely to call £115 with just an 8 on the flop, given that my range on the flop is going to include a lot of draws i thin he'd c/fold naked 68/A8 here. because the 9T of dimonds are down (and i have the QJ of blue) we can rule out 4 combo's of 8s imo. Then consider how unlikley he is to call the fflop with naked 68 and A8, plus how likely he would be to raise the flop with 8d 7d I think you can rule about 5 8 combo's out for sure. Also with a naked 8 I think he is very unlikely to c/jam the turn, bearing in mind he could be getting freerolled a ton, he would do this with Ad 8d i think. so KQ aside, which i think he raises the flop quite a bit Im struggling to think what he has that i loose to, Ad Jh? 8h 8s? Th Ts? Ad Ac? Board: Jc Td 9d 7h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 32.528% 31.93% 00.60% 562 10.50 { QdJd } Hand 1: 67.472% 66.88% 00.60% 1177 10.50 { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, TcTh, TcTs, ThTs, 9c9h, 9c9s, 9h9s, 88, AdKd, Ad8d, KcQc, KhQh, KsQs, JcTc, JhTh, JsTs, Tc8c, Th8h, Ts8s, 9c8c, 9h8h, 9s8s, 87s, AdQc, KcQh, KcQs, KhQc, KhQs, KsQc, KsQh, 8d7c } which is incidently exactly the same as if he had all 8's lol Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Whollyflush on August 05, 2010, 07:02:55 PM if hes scared of getting freerolled by Ad8d on the turn, jamming would be rather tez.
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: Whollyflush on August 05, 2010, 07:04:37 PM and jamming turn is tez because you could be drawing dead alot. Theres also the issue of balance when you have a set/2pair in this spot, but i guess the issue of exploitation doesn't matter in live cash games.
Title: Re: Another Live Cash hand! Post by: SuuPRlim on August 05, 2010, 09:14:02 PM and jamming turn is tez because you could be drawing dead alot. Theres also the issue of balance when you have a set/2pair in this spot, but i guess the issue of exploitation doesn't matter in live cash games. THIS. I did fold in the end. just didnt think that he would c/jam £1000 with an 8 alone here, not this player, and i defo dont think he c/called a naked 8 on the flop. I think he either flopped KQ or was spazzing out with some sort of Ad Jh hand, but that seems unlikely knowing this player |