Another Live Cash hand!

[SuuPRlim]

Found myself in a pretty nasty spot last night

Playing £2/£5 7handed. Game is Very loose but villian in this hand is the table mega rock. played a few hands with him alredy which make a big impact on this hand

He limped  preflop and called a 5x raise from me out of the BB (3handed to the flop) he called two streets on a 55J 2 board and checked the river (7) back. I had AA.
He flopped a set of Jacks on a JAQ 2 spades board and check called flop, check called turn, (brick) then c/folded on a K river (I had air - didnt show)

SO he doesnt do much betting without a pretty good hand

Hero - £1300
Villian - £1200

three limper to my button straddle (£10) I make it £55 on the button with 
one caller he calls 1 fold

flop comes a rather favourable      . Checks to me, I bet £115. He calls.

Turn comes   

he checks. I bet £225.
He moves in without missing a heartbeat for pretty much bang on £1,000.

Thoughts?

[DMorgan]

From my experience is really tight passive guys like this one seems to be, he has a straight here a huge %age of the time.

Against this guy I think theres more merit to checking back the turn than there is to betting. He can't have too many Adxd hands in his range, I can't see him flatting pre with A8dd or AKdd so we're not really getting another street of value from a whole lot worse on the turn.

As played, as much as it sucks we've gotta let this go I think

[SuuPRlim]

From my experience is really tight passive guys like this one seems to be, he has a straight here a huge %age of the time.

Against this guy I think theres more merit to checking back the turn than there is to betting. He can't have too many Adxd hands in his range, I can't see him flatting pre with A8dd or AKdd so we're not really getting another street of value from a whole lot worse on the turn.

As played, as much as it sucks we've gotta let this go I think

YES.

When i had the chips in my hand i regretted it.

[Cf]

Fold. You're getting 2:1 on a call but not quite the price from the pot.

Check turn.

[stato_1]

Agree with check turn, fold now. Though in OP would it not be more appropriate to say he doesn't do much betting when he does very strong hands, as this is what we've seen?

[Rupert]

think betting turn is better than checking, easy fold now.  dont think you're getting check/raised a huuge amount and think you very rarely fold the best hand if you do.  also feel that if you check behind turn and make your hand you aren't winning a ton more if any

[pleno1]

qc xc maybe. surely you just assign a range and pokerstove ? check odds / pot then see if its a call or not?

[SuuPRlim]

but everyone understands how painful this is to fold in a live situation yes?

[Cf]

qc xc maybe. surely you just assign a range and pokerstove ? check odds / pot then see if its a call or not?

That's what I did. Against only 8x we're about 30%. I didn't factor in other hands because of description of villain which implies he pretty much always has it here. Guess he could have 2p+ or better fds. Don't know how much difference this would make but I doubt it turns it into a call.

[SuuPRlim]

but everyone understands how painful this is to fold in a live situation yes?

drunken post ignore

[buzzharvey22]

dnt think we can say "he played a set like tht last time, he will play a set like tht again"  if hes not the worst player in the world surely he must have some different move rather than literally check calling everything and believing.

[Whollyflush]

check turn.

by betting you fold out all the hands you beat, whilst getting in trouble when he has an 8/pulls a crazy bluff a tiny % of the time.

After that this is simply a pokerstove jobby. Haven't done it myself but im assuming u have around about 25-30%% equity against a range consisting solely of 8's. Id also guess your gettting slightly less than 2:1 so you would need around 35% equity to call.

This is why betting the turn is horrific

[Whollyflush]

Actually against a range consisting only of 8's. u have 31% equity and the pot size is £1750 and its £805 to call. Your getting slightly better than 2:1 (where you need 33% equity) so i think this is just about a call, given i think theres at least a 1% chance hes retarded and shoves a set here or is slightly tilted from been pushed around.

[Cf]

Actually against a range consisting only of 8's. u have 31% equity and the pot size is £1750 and its £805 to call. Your getting slightly better than 2:1 (where you need 33% equity) so i think this is just about a call, given i think theres at least a 1% chance hes retarded and shoves a set here or is slightly tilted from been pushed around.

Have done some more numbers. Given your quoted 31% equity and the £805 into £1750.

£805 into £1750 is a price of 2.17:1 from the pot.

31% equity gives us odds of 2.23:1.

That makes it just about a fold. Factor in random spazzy bluffs which might occur rarely and it probably moves it to break even or just about a call.

I still fold it though. Don't think there's anything wrong with the call but it's high variance. Guess it comes down to personal preference/circumstances.

[Whollyflush]

yea i didnt calculate it extacly as you have (my bad).
I still feel its a call, as theres a chance hes feeling pushed around and theres at least 1% chance hes bluffing/semi-bluffing. Ive seen it in live cash games expecting the nit to show up with 8x, when they've just completely spazzed. Also if your betting the turn with a hand with this much equity, instead of checking the turn it feels naughty sacrificing 0EV when having such good equity.