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Full Tilt Poker Game #23159904697: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (178970456), Table 4 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:51:21 ET - 2010/08/17
Seat 1: Speedyparker (7,874)
Seat 2: DinoMassarico (6,026)
Seat 4: MiskoKvo (4,074)
Seat 5: nuetthie (9,138)
Seat 6: cozzyorlando (9,500)
Seat 7: golopop (7,745)
Seat 8: sovietsong (17,117)
Seat 9: laranjinha99 (6,026)
sovietsong posts the small blind of 250
laranjinha99 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sovietsong [5d 5c]
Speedyparker folds
DinoMassarico folds
MiskoKvo folds
nuetthie raises to 1,250
cozzyorlando folds
golopop folds
sovietsong has 15 seconds left to act

shove or fold?

Shove.

Shove, if I've worked out the positions correct. You SB and CO has opened

why no antes? i this not a 45 man?

ya - no antes on FTP.

Fold and move on.

Completely unnecessary to make such an over-shove here.

I make it hijack opened and we are SB.

How many left? This the FT or 2 tables out? Assuming we have 15/16 left?

hero is sb
villain is co

Fold

decided when i saw title and that mondatoo had posted that i'd +1.

I'm not used to no ante's but since ante's make our range wider this looks a defo fold,one time Tank go +1 :)

Make it 9137 to go to leave your opponent with 1 chip and then check it down post flop even if you hit quads.

Final table, 6 pay

Any reads, looks like he might be good given his opening raise size.

Think I normally fold this but would shove with a read. If he had opened the co/btn i would probably shove, pretty marginal spot imo and reads are important.

for the record, this move has never ever worked out for me

87 times out of 100 I forget and just shove pre
5 times out of 100 I remember but too busy to do the math or my mind goes blank so I say fk it and shove
5 times out of 100 I remember but they fold pre
3 times out of 100 I remember they call pre, but end up winning pots
1 time out of 100 they call pre and I have best hand at showdown, but they end up making the worst value bet in history of the world somewhere along the line so I knock them out so may as well have shoved

That adds up to 101 times out of 100

Rounding errors obv ::)

he was pretty active two tabs out and had raised late pos on FT.

thank you all.

i shoved, he passed.

Me likey

prob a mistake according to sng wiz - if he is raising any two, it grudgingly recommends pushing 44+. 

Surely result from ICM calculation vary a lot depending on how many cards opponent is raise-calling with?
We need two reads to run the numbers for a definate answer, what he's opening with and from those cards, which ones he's calling your shove with.

I lean towards shoving if it's close, the reason being there is usually value in future rounds if players to your right are frequent raisers but you show that you're not shy to get your stack in and 3 bet.
The raisers to your right tighten up their opening standards, giving you lots more profitable oppurtunities to open the betting and take down the blinds in future rounds from the small blind, button and cut-off.
in cruder terms, more 3 bets send a message to people to keep their filthy hands off your bubble.

definate shove. i wouldn't think twice.

all the money to be made in the 45-mans comes from spots such as this - just pure aggression on the final table when everyone seems to comically tighten up and chips are for the taking.

I thought it was two tables out :)

I disagree that you should always be shoving here,it's definitely villain dependant.

nope, it's final.

i would shove every time here, unless i have a massive read on villain. but fair enough, agree to disagree :)

Against a tight villain I'm not shoving here Tom.

I fold here quite often without reads.

Otherwise is completely villian dependant

he's 2.4x'd it.

He may be tight but what's tight in this day and age? In the CO are you saying he folds JTs - QK, 22-44, A7s - AT

The ranges above he could easily raise fold if hes a tight player

I jam, then jam somemore then i jam again.

Read required to shove here

Default is to fold

I very much doubt his range is this wide

My read is he has opened from late pos, we have a reasonable holding with fold equity.

I gen think default folding is too nitty in these structures.

I think this range is totally standard. Otherwise he is just folding away free chips to accumulate from these spots in l8 pos spots. Id actually expect in some cases the range to be a little wider, but then i guess that wld allow the reads to come into play if he was a super lag pre.

[  ] hijack is late position

[  ] we have a reasonable holding if called

[  ] we have fold equity if he is opening 5%*


*he almost def isnt but you don't seem to be able to acknowledge that he might be

If your strategy is fk it I'm the daddy and I'm 3 betting any two if given the chance then ok, but don't pretend it's anything more sophisticated than that.

Its the CO not hijack

HIJACK           Seat 5: nuetthie (9,138)
CUTOFF          Seat 6: cozzyorlando (9,500)
BUTTON        Seat 7: golopop (7,745)
SMALL BLIND  Seat 8: sovietsong (17,117)

Ok fairish point that the hj isn't l8 pos here.

You give way too much credit to ppl with their opening ranges, which sounds good to me as i make money from such nitty strats.

Our holding is certainly not unreasonable here and please go ahead and wait for yr aces.

Yes he might be opening 5%, he might also be opening 25%, 50%, 100%.

Absolute ridic comment to suggest that because we are jamming effectively 19x here that we are 3betting atc and that having a strat of 3betting 5's because, a)-we have fe, and b)- because our hand isn't a huge dog to his opening range-that this is unsophisicated.

Also remember that we shld be pressing the shorter stacks with our chipcount here, lets make him fold 66 and random ocards.

Sorry if my tone sounds harsh, just felt yrs did too.

I'm going off what I'm told by the OP

yeah he told ftp he had a squint and they made special hand histories for him to use in replayers

The value of your play is entirely in fold equity as you are losing substantially when called (either when the bb has a monster or by the original raiser) so there really isnt a lot of difference between 55 and atc.

Just stove 55 v his range, then stove atc v his range and then come back on here and prove yr point.

lol if his calling range is 88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo - you are better off with atc

I just did this btw and against the range i'd assign him, which is any pp, j10std+a7) atc is 36%, 55 is 47%

Against a nittier range of 66+ a10+ kqo+ atc is 32% and 55 is 39%

Hardly the same is it?

Btw to suggest he is opening only 5% is clearly ridic imo, therefore his range is only 1010+ aq+

Even the nittiest of nits has to open wider here.

So now u r changing the boundries from what his opening range is to now what his calling range is??? lol

ATC is 28% against yr wonderfully imagined range, nice to know u give peeps so much respect from the hj.

55 is 35%, so you sir are wrong! :)

sigh

his opening range isn't what you should be considering, it is his calling range - which is prob between 5% and 10% depending on his opening range.


ps stopped stove b4 it finished so your figures are right - but the point is still valid ie you are in deep sh1te against his calling range

Larger sigh.

You just said atc is in better shape here than 55 against a range of 88+

Sigh.

Stove has just proved you are incorrect, be nice if u aknowledged this tbh.

You now say we shouldn't be considering his opening range??

What drivel, this is the whole point of the thread imo. What % of hands is he opening here that will fold to a shove, whilst also considering what shape we will be in if called, stove has proved mine and disproved yr atc points here.

Yes we must also consider his calling range, but imo the opening range is far more important here, the calling range is only relevant in regards to what percentage/range of hands he is opening with and thus will call with.

Imo you are trying to differentiate between his calling range and opening range when the nitty range u assign to his open sees no possible fe to our shove, obv he cant rse fold 88+. I give him a wider range and therefore believe the 2 are different.
 
Obviously if we assume every midish pos open is 88+ we wll never shove 55 here, gg on winning in these games with those assumptions.


I understand where those such as james atkin are coming from here, who i bow to in terms of experience in these games, about some kind of read being vital here, v a reg we might insta fold, but against a random i really think this is a clear shove, especially with our stack size.

well glad this hand has divided everyone a bit, it is reasurring that a hand that i thought was tricky was actually worth posting rather than a superstandard shove/fold etc.

I said there wasnt much difference between 55 and atc in terms of in the shitiness which there isnt.  (I acknowledge my mistake above b4 you posted).  You seem to want to cling to the delusion that there is some value in 55 vs his tight calling range and refuse to accept that the entire value in pushing is fold equity.

I did actually take the time to put this hand thru sitngo wiz.  On its defaults, even the loosest, pushing is a big mistake.  So why would this be?  

Ty for acknowledging this mistake, i missed it b4, but can see u did.

I did not say that we are not mainly pushing 55 for fe, just that it isn't the only factor, thus it's not an atc push as stove shows we are in much better shape with 55 than atc v any of his range.

You say theire isn't much difference, but i'd call 7, and 11 percent differences quite a lot tbh.

And the 'shitness' which we are in if he calls are 47 and 39% against the ranges i assigned, certainly not huge dogs and even if we lose this hand we are still alive and in with a chance of taking this down.

Not a huge fan of sng whizz and for a start this is a little diff imo as it's a 45 manner and thus the prizes are more jumpy.

Lets not get into a huge debate about this tbh, u go with yr style and i'll go with mine, once the word 'shitness' is mentioned i'd say it's time to call an end to the convo! :)

This is when he is raising any two and calling our shove 72% of the time which is the rather unrealistic Wiz default.

If villain is opening any two but only calling your shove a more conservative but still ridic 24% (22+, A2+, KJ+, K9s+, QJs) then it recommends to shove ATC


Looking at the numbers of him opening a more realistic (but still very loose) 28% of the time and calling our shove 5% (TT+, AQ+) then it recommends to shove ATC

Thing is the line drops very sharply. The breakeven point with 55 (when he's opening 28%) is when opponent starts calling 8% (66+, AJ+ A10s+).
If he's looser than that when it comes to calling off his stack, the shove becomes more and more unprofitable very quickly.

Default fold is not bad as the tighter the opponent is opening in this spot it makes shove more and more unprofitable too.

I still like the shove if we've got any inkling that opponent may like to open lots. Sovietsong had such a read so I think he played this one well.

This really is a read dependant spot and I'm not sure how this thread got this long should've ended thread when Longy posted he was spot on(standard)