blonde poker forum

Not sure if this an appropriate hand for PHA but I'll post it anyways.

We are down to 3 tables, £150kish up top. Got 3.5k locked up.

Blinds are 1500/3000/300

Average is about 80k, I have 48k. Villain has about 60k.

Villian is playing ridic tight. He moved to my table after the bubble burst about 3 hours previously with a I guess a top 5 stack and proceeded to blind his way down to his current stack.

I think he might have played 2 hands in 3 hours and he's not shown down a single hand.

Now, he's UTG and makes it 10k to play.

He seemed quite inexperienced and his body language screamed strength here.

The table folds faster than the Crystal Palace defence did when facing QPR a couple of months ago.

To me on the button, I peek down at JJ.

The extremely aggro chip leader is the bb with over 200k.

What should I do?

structure is pretty good and although you're short you do have plenty of time....

Honestly, I'd fold

BUT ID NEVER, EVER TELL ANYONE, i'd claim I had  6s 6h if anyone asked after i'd timebanked.

I don't know if I can bring myself to fold  Jh Jd to one bet especially with 15bbs and M of 6.66 (assuming 9 handed obv) although in this instance it's prob right to do so. With 20bbs he's not opening utg light and in theory I fold simply because he has us crushed so much of the time and folds the rest (barring AK if he's as much of a rock as you portray) imo. But, like I said I don't think in the heat of battle I can fold  Jh Jd to one bet.

Heat of battle or not, this would be a terrible fold to make.

id fold vs villain.

Not sure I can find a fold here

Might be a leak but no way I'm folding here

Given your read I think I'd rather fold this and open shove atc the next 2 hands that fold to me and pick up exactly the same amount of chips.

If we ship here we need him to fold. We are effectively bluffing or praying he has AK and we get a flip if he actually calls.

I suppose if he's insanely tight he might just pass QQ, think he's definitely passing 1010.

That read needs to be fucking spot on to fold JJ here though.

This is a fold against described villain.

Why would it not be an appropriate hand for pha ?

Fold on bubble but gonna shove here.

this

Had almsot identical hand in tournie couple weeks ago. He nitrolled for about 3-4 mins and then called with QQ.

I called.

I realised while calling this was probably a mistake, but I thought it was a unique situation.

I felt I could narrow his holdings down pretty accurately.

I thought there was a 90% chance he had AA, KK, QQ or AK.

Maybe a 10% chance he had TT, 99 or AQ.

Virtually no chance he had anything else.

I also thought there was a good chance the bb would squeeze and if the villain folded I would instacall, but pass if he called.

I thought the villain was so straightforward he would lead if he was ahead of me on the flop, and check if I was ahead.

Thoughts?

Insightful

I'm sorry but if you really think that there is 90% chance he has you crushed then it's a fold.

With 15 bbs and an open in front of us we can never even consider calling. It's shove or fold, simples. By calling you're putting in over 20% of your stack and by your own admission you might not even get to see a flop.

If it folds around (27.2k in the pot, ~38k eff stack) and we see an uncoordinated 10 high flop and the villain jams (which is likely considering his >3x pfr) are we really folding? His jam looks weak but you've effectively gone set mining by flatting pre and deciding to give up if he continues.

AK is obv the most likely holding.

I would have expected a slightly smaller raise with AA maybe even KK.

I really don't understand his pfr size. I mean considering he has the rockiest of rock images 7.5k does the same as 10k. It does look like AK not wanting to take a flop oop or build a pot so that he can commit himself with a cbet. But I still, in theory, like the fold pre as when we jam he passes everything we beat bar AK and when we flat we put ourselves in a rank spot

I nearly posted then held off!

Keith it sounds like you were really hoping for the squeeze here to define nits range, and although I love the thinking you just aren't deep enough, and are you sure he folds ak to the squeeze?

Bb could of course peel too which would be horrible for you being oop in the hand. Playing 25bbs I think this play is perfect, here given your reads I think u should fold

I jam pre fwiw

So you're looking to turn your hand into a bluff on the flop if it comes A high and he checks to you, hopefully bluffing out KK/QQ/JJ or bluff out QQ/JJ on a K high flop if he checks?

I dont like it because to win the pot, you're flatting JJ to either turn it into a bluff on a A or K high flops if he doesnt c-bet (Since you're turning it into a bluff, how wide would you flat in this spot to make this move?) or attacking raggy flops when he check/folds AK.  Also he can potentially bluff you off this pot as Id assume he would shove low flops with JJ/TT/99 as well as QQ-AA

fold seems apt

I'm basically shoving if he checks to me on the flop.

If the flop comes Axx I trusted my ability to judge if he's got AK or QQ, KK. As I said he seemed pretty inexperienced, at least in regards to playing for this sort of loot.

This is the reason I wasn't sure if it was a good hand to post here, because my play was totally based on my read on the player.

999 out of a thousand I wouldn't call pre. I would occasionally fold but mostly shove, just felt there was a good chance bb would squeeze and that would define the villains hand or if that didn't happen I could judge accurately where I stood on the flop.

The problem with hoping from a squeeze from the aggro bb is that he presumably has noticed that the tight player hasn't played any hands. A good aggro player picks his spots right. Squeezing into a tight player who you give a 90% chance of AA/KK/QQ/AK doesn't seem like a good spot to squeeze to me.

I just fold pre and let the guy blind himself down some more.

how long did you tank for before flatting.

When he shows me Aces I prob nod my head after he has called my shove

I've been there.

I virtually never tank. And certainly didn't tank here.

im allin

can easily have been card dead for 3 hours esp when people tank ridiculously when in the money probs only played 50 hands in 3 hours if that

make it 24k

Eh? I meant it would be a bad fold in case I didn't make sense.

The cawl doesn't work for me either. Shove is absolutely the only thing you can do here. As usual I agree completely with Rupert, the guy could have been card dead and might even be getting frustrated. AQs looks like the nuts any time, he's not folding that, and he's not open folding pocket 8s either, so your fold equity is actually pretty huge (consider that only 18 combos have you beat, you don't have to find that many folds to make it a profitable shove even if he only calls better). If you're saying "I looked into his soul and saw without doubt that he had QQ+", then yeah do what you like, but you're right there isn't much point putting it on PHA.

FWIW this exact same situation came up for me 2 years ago in Gala Nottingham £500er, Colin Young (tightest player alive) raised under the gun I flatted JJ otb, he bet pot on a low flop and showed AK when I folded.