blonde poker forum

This is a hand from the Daily 90k on Stars. Villain is 20% roi at 174$ ABI with 1300 AFS and 3600 sample size.

I've played a few times with villain before but not much and I don't think he will have any specific read on me other than tight and has a cool avatar obv. My stats have him at about 10/10/2.8% 3b pre antes.


Poker Stars, $50 + $5 NL Hold'em Tournament, 15/30 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: 2,655
UTG+2: 2,825
MP1: 2,945
MP2: 2,705
Hero (CO): 2,985
BTN: 3,165
SB: 2,945
BB: 2,735
UTG: 4,040

Pre-Flop: (45) Ac Qh dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to 90, 2 folds, Hero calls 90, 3 folds

Flop: (225) 5c 4c Ad (2 Players)
UTG+2 bets 150, Hero calls 150

Turn: (525) Qc (2 Players)
UTG+2 bets 360, Hero calls 360

River: (1,245) Ks (2 Players)
UTG+2 bets 722, Hero....


Am I so bad I should just fold pre?!

If I say he's good and I don't expect him to be firing 3 light hardly ever if at all, that should make the river an easy ish fold right? If so should I have played it any different on flop/turn or am I just a whiney little biatch?
 
:dontask:

snapping him off and its a cooler if you lose

what do we beat? worse Aces up?

yes

+ worse Aces
worse 2 pr (45 KQ)
Missed str8s

you have the Ac which makes a huge difference in the hand

Yeah, prob fold pre against this villain...

Obv call river now though

why obv?

what hands is he vbetting worse with? bluffing with? halp a noob.

whats his SN? if you are a random to him best case looks to be a chop, he like never has worse two pairs

I missed the flush draw coming in tbh

Not that I think he has a flush very often, just seems like a good excuse :)

Sigh, re-evaluation, I guess you're right, we're only beating a 3 barrel

If river is 8 of spades I think we have to call though

Aduobe4

6 tabling 22 cubed - 100 Fo's, and some 80$ pca sats.  Hasn't got the same name on tilt.

I must have gone deep in a donky with him because I had an opr note on him which meant it was getting towards bubble/icm decisions. I haven't made a note of him seeing me do anything unusual and my stats/usual image is pretty tight.

I felt like this was a total FML spot.

I'm not sure he bets AJ vs a random here. If we shove does he fold 44 or 55 rotflmfao asldfjk;asldkjf;asdf pokaz

Jam river, looks like AJcc/ATcc then. I doubt this type of player has is raising many SC's from EP pre antes.

I thought about it, it's 1503 more into about 4k if I do jam, he folds 44/55 if we jam ?

edit with us having the Ac, and so few combos of the flush in his range assuming he has a tight opening range in EP (which I think is a good/obvious assumption). jamming is better than folding the river once we get here like this, if he bet calls he has KJcc ftw?

Am I a tourny donk!?

yes.

didnt read anything else

oh god, I think you specifically will LOVE the line I took on the river. even if it's not the most optimal rotflmfao

only read title.

Answer is yes, you're absolutely terrible

hello Cosworth

(http://www.illinoisphoto.com/pictures/d/80438-1/super+big+nose.jpg)

hi titbeam

(http://collider.com/wp-content/uploads/LOTR-Gollum-2.jpg)

I'm alot paler than that! innit.


And i've changed the thread title for you you big ghay.

hmm he could well have a couple more flushes there. seems a bit shallow for a river jam tbh

we click it back, pls lets click it back!

Am I right in assuming that without me saying there is a donky in the blinds or something that he never has 67s, 45, and that there aren't many flushes in his range except the KJcc because of his preflop range? I don't see how he ever bets turn and river with KQ.  He's deffo betting river with 44/55/AK/AQ.  I felt like it was a dirtyly close spot but that both shove and fold were both 'good' options.

nah mate I went next level, thought fk this I play street poker, lets up my game and start using the chat box rotflmfao

Im just messing really, i'd never try and make someone fold 2pair here because well..... they usually  don't fold unless your alot deeper. Its almost certainly a fold, but i doubt i'd make it gametime.

That said i reckon he has a flush a tiny % of the time here, only 2 combo's id consider being KJcc JTcc. Its the ol AK most the time.

I probably reraise the turn but as played I think I call and then kick myself for it so I guess it is a fold....

I thought that he's not v betting worse here, I couldn't really see any combos of bluffs. Though as you say that there are max 2 combos of frush if he even opens either of them UTG+2. I just wasn't sure if we had enough to make him fold out his 44/55/AK/AQ combos, he'd be getting 3:1 if I jam I think. Maths is hard.

I ended up going with timebank, say in chat:

      alskdfjasdfklj
     WHY DID YOU DO DAT?


sigh fold.  ;reallyamsorry;

I don't think I like raising turn either.

no value in jamming

so you dont bet fold 2 pr on that board? at your level of thinking?

thought there was a very similar thread to this earlier in the year where all the gurus said that this type of 2 pr hand was a bet fold rather than ck call

as i understood it these clowns were entertaining the idea of bluff shoving, something which i don't actually mind but here we are too shallow to make him realistically fold the hands we want him to fold imo


its not about the river though, its mostly preflop dictating that he cannot have a worse two pair

A4/A5/Q5/Q4/54 all get folded pre

a lot of regs are folding KQo from his position pre antes also

whilst i think he would open KQs, the Qh is in our hand, the Qc is on board, and the Ks rivers, leaving only one combo  Kd Qd .... would he bet KQ on that turn after his flop cbet gets called, and would he then bet river too?  


the guy is a decent winner over a large sample of relatively high buy ins. usually pre ante in a $50 f/o he is going to be keeping it simple.

ty

didnt read thread u played it well if u folded the river doubt most multitabling regs ever gonna be straight up bluffing and no one vbets AJ here

This wasnt the question. the question was, is he a donk?
wat u think?

anyone like fold pre?

yeh yeh, he knows just like everyone else.

i hardly even read the OP either

sadface

I didn't write that much!

yes I do, I think that is my preferred line vs this villain.

I think it's a pretty trivial fold as opposed to call. But whether a shove is profitable is the interesting point here. His range that may fold is AK, AQ, 44, 55 and KQ imo (in order of likelyhood/combinations imo). His range that won't fold is TJcc and KJcc as said previously.

I think this player is capable of folding all sets and 2prs, even with the 3:1 price on the end (disclaimer: maths copied from beanie). This is easily enough to make the shove profitable, so long as he folds this portion of his range.

hmm


1) I think this is only a trivial fold with the reads, insight into opponents strategy and knowledge of how he views hero.


2) Sets and 2 pairs are hard to make, and if he only has to be good 25% of the time (and I might be bad enough to have AQ) who says he's folding.


3) IF he is folding those hands (which are all the hands we put him on) then even if he can have KJcc and JTcc that's still what about 8:1 combos wise of folds to calls. So it's not even 'close' to a good shove it would be super duper sexy time profitable.   IF he's not opening those two frushes then we should just be jamming this river every time laughing to ourselves.