blonde poker forum

ZSIPAL VPP 24% PFR 20% fold cbet to a raise 36%

alonso (apart from running like a train) vpp  32% pfr 20%


***** Hand History for Game 2590569921 ***** (IPoker)
$100.00 USD PL Omaha - Tuesday, January 11, 11:49:53 ET 2011
Table Dedal (No DP 50 bb min) (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: hero ( $202.50 USD )
Seat 3: Zsipali87 ( $254.80 USD )
Seat 5: KEDRAAAAA ( $93.00 USD )
Seat 6: alonsoCP ( $106.30 USD )
Seat 8: senditnow007 ( $106.40 USD )
Seat 10: rutters666 ( $88.60 USD )
rutters666 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
hero posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [  Jc 7c Ah 8h ]
Zsipali87 raises [$3.50 USD]
KEDRAAAAA folds
alonsoCP calls [$3.50 USD]
senditnow007 folds
rutters666 calls [$3.00 USD]
hero calls [$2.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Tc, 3h ]
rutters666 checks
hero checks
Zsipali87 bets [$11.00 USD]
alonsoCP raises [$47.00 USD]
rutters666 folds


HERO?

Just pot it, even against a set and nut flush draw, you are marginal fav- you have back dr hearts

Ur fav against JT99 and AKKx clubs- obv this changes depending on split outs/blockers but you're equity will never be bad enough against their ranges to consider folding, Especially since its obv highly likely original bettor will fold once its gone, raise re-raise- and against top set ur favourite

ZOMMMMMMMMMMG wat an incred hand

l
glgl

hmm

Quite like flatting to try to keep Zsipali in. Also gives the option of folding if it pairs the turn.

Not passing a non paired turn if we brick so no real rush to get it in.

With the nut fl draw this would probably be correct, however we are usually better off potting to "clean" up our outs

Aye makes sense.

Seems fairly standard.

What is the opinion here with say 400bb stacks. OOP what about flating these spots to jam any non pair turn that completes any draw especially HU?

You think the nfd is folding?

+1

think this is going to be very marginal overall, we have nothing invested so I'm out

Gotta agree.

I can't see myself shoving here and I'm not flatting so think I fold.

I disagree, if we had kqjx wit clubs then id say its more standard. Our only nut outs are an offsuit 6 or a 7.

It looks so pretty tho

Fwiw im fairly sure i spooned this hand, ill wait for a few more replies before i reveal what happened

Not expecting nut flush draw to fold- but people with badish wraps and no fd will fold, meaning we clean up our straight outs and KKxx with clubs can fold, cleaning our flush outs v sets etc

This first statement is way off. We have 38% vs Ac*c33(99/TT).
He can't have JT99 with clubs. We're a flip vs Ac*cKK. That said you should probably just pot it and the italicised part explains why. I would usually lead the flop also.

3 way Rob. 3 way- hence why it says THEIR RANGES plural

sigh

Don't you boys think we often get it in in really bad shape here?

They show up a lot with like AAJ8 with clubs and 1010xx

cant really put someone on exactly AAJ8 with nut flush draw because they continuation bet?

The raiser on flop only has 100bbs- i dont really think its close unless original preflop raiser and flop bettor has a continuation bet % under 20, even then i doubt i fold

for the first time ever

+1

You cant put people on total nut hands and worse case scenarios for us, just by them raising pre and continuation betting! Even if u played the hand and know results

Im not one for overplaying hands in single raised pots at 6max and i think its a pretty standard stackoff.

ok reading comprehension ftw whatever.

600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 9cTc3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Jc7cAh8h   34.74%   203,155   10,678
TT**   43.55%   258,875   4,902
Ac*c**   21.71%   127,074   6,371

We actually do worse than this since that is 100% of combos of the second 2 hands, but I cba to mess about with pql since it's obvious we should be allin.

c bet multiway oop wet flop is a lot different to cbet hu ip.

They arent putting him on overpair and flush draw- they are putting him on overpair, flush draw and open end straight draw. But obv people play different, so i said what i think and others can make their minds up

I agree with Dave.

If you'd like to quote that line and use it as your sig with '[X] life complete' attached please feel free to do so btw Mr. S.

Sick digs.

Im pretty sure flatting is worse than folding by quite a bit,

Our equity is very strong vs almost any range atm (uber nuts excuded) but will can decrease heavily on various turns, I know it's obvious that with a draw ur equity is often going to be less on the turn than the flop, but it should be pretty obvious why we're going to loose a ton of EV calling the flop and folding some turns when our equity is so strong on the flop.

we're not even really that deep and as Dubai says we have absolutely no reason to give either player credit for a SUPER nutted range at all, the raiser is, admittedly raising a c-bet into 3 players but expects to have a decent amount of fold equity and the initial better has way way more bet-folds then bet-stack-offs here surely.....

250bb+ deep and it gets interesting imo

sick 1000'th post ^

i realise its all been said already as well but i am stunned anyone wants to fold this, look at our hand, its awesome!

haha, not at you mate more just me putting +1 on anything

Suspense is kiling me...............

:)

I still think this is a fold btw.

I respect Dubai and Patonius's opinions hugely. They are far better Omaha players than I am but at these levels I think it's a fold.

I ran this hand by my mentor at Pokerfarm too and he said it was a fold for him.

If it's a fold on that flop you might as well fold it pre.

Yeah cos we're always going to get potted and repotted on when we flop this.

[   ]

So we're assuming that orignal bettor is staying in the pot thus making it 3 way?

We're also assuming worst case where we're up against a set from one of them and nfd from the other.

How about calling to see a turn. If we end up heads up we get it in on the turn.

If we end up 3 way we get it in on a non pairing, non club turn assuming that nfd man will fold.

If orignal bettor re pots and gets called then we pass because we assume we're about 20%

We can't call because the pot isn't closed yet, i.e initial bettor can repot so it would be pretty stupid to stick 50bbs in and fold after that. We have so few outs to the nuts.

I think calling is the worst option.

Ok guys remember when i said im fairly sure i spooned this hand.

So the action got back to me and my thinking was call the $47 and get it in on any non-pairing turn, Zsipila then jammed alonso called and the actions back on me to call off my last $150. At this point i thought my hand is fairly shit v 2 all ins....my thinking was one of them could have kqjx and another with a better flush draw. So i folded (told you i spooned it).

So anyway on their backs Zsipila showed  Kd Td Qs Ts and alonso showed  Ac 9c 7s 6h

turn  Qc

and the river paired up.

In hindsight i think ive gotta go all the way with the hand or just fold when it gets back to me on the flop.

I thought it was an interesting hand.

Thats me right there, some tekkers are baaad!

I know you don't like calling to "find out where you are" but in this case it would be pretty conclusive.

We're also pretty deep so we're looking at winning 300+ bbs.

I actually ran this through twodimes using the worst case I could think of and it was pretty much what Maldini has just posted.

Personally I would've played this exactly the same as Maldini.

If he spooned it then he's not the only one.

too many 9c itt

Ok, I'm gonna attempt some Maths :)

I'm expecting it to be pretty much bang on the money
 
vs alonso if Zsipil folds assuming ofc alonso never folds (which he doesn't) we're calling $102.9 to win $2311.30 so we need ~44%

board: 9c Tc 3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   55.73%   332,071   4,590
TT**   44.27%   263,339   4,590

board: 9c Tc 3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   38.01%   222,949   10,189
AcKcJT   61.99%   366,862   10,189

board: 9c Tc 3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   59.31%   354,216   3,304
QJ9T   40.69%   242,480   3,304


Using these three hands as pretty basic examples we have av. equity of ~51% so the 36% of the ZSPIL is folding we're obv pretty huge to get it in.

So our EV = +$16.10

When ZSPIL gets it in behind we obv give him super strong range, and when he gets it in aswell we need ~38% (Im not going to mess about with the side pot, although it does actually make a little bit of difference)

board: 9c Tc 3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   31.28%   179,740   3,891
QJ9T   36.44%   222,825   3,627
AcAKc*   32.28%   193,544   264

board: 9c Tc 3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   37.53%   210,654   5,105
TT**   40.60%   253,200   4,743
AcAKc*   21.87%   130,909   628

board: 9c Tc 3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   61.23%   350,624   9,659
TT**   31.65%   199,269   5,389
99**   7.12%   40,011   5,490

board: 9c Tc 3h
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Ah8hJc7c   18.84%   104,296   5,452
TT**   41.94%   256,653   2,038
AcKQcJ   39.22%   232,196   6,255


So vs this range 3way we have Av.Equity of ~37%

so our EV in this situation = -$5.15

But if ZSPIL folds 36% then ((36*16.1)-(72*5.16)/100) = $2.09

So our long term EV = +$2.09

So it's pretty much a breakeven play but coupled with the fact that getting it in is lots and lots of fun I would never fold, but it certainly wouldn't be much of a mistake and you could defo make a case for folding being best, however I think that ZSPIL will actually fold MORE than 36% here because of the action in front of him.

Unless I've made a mistake with the maths, which given i've only just up is a definite possibility

Also, its a fairly large EV mistake to peel and fold board pairing turns

Also, its a fairly large EV mistake to peel and fold board pairing turns

Explain please?

basically, if its +EV to go all in on a flop, i.e going all in = EV of positive $, then calling 50 big blinds with the intention of folding will always = a loss of big blinds, you could go allin and win 2bb's long term, or you could call 50bbs and fold on a later street which willl = a loss, so instead of making 2bb's in EV you loose nearly 60bbs with no chance of winning

It's actually a much bigger mistake than getting it in really badly.

im a bit pissed so apologies if this doesnt make sense ^^^