blonde poker forum

This hand has been bugging me for a while.

I arrive a few minutes into the comp and decide to raise it up to 150 with Kc Tc in early to mid position.
Two callers: Villain 1 & 2 (immediate left and cut-off).

Flop: Ts 7c 5c

I'm first to go and lead for 400.
Villain 1 calls; Villain 2 raises to 1,300.
I flat-call. Villain 1 calls.

Turn: Ad

I check - and likely folding to a big bet - but Villain 1 leads for 1,500.
Villain 2 folds; I call.

River: 4d

I check; Villain 1 checks.
He shows Ac 2c

(1) Should I reraise the flop?
(2) Should I fold the turn?
(3) Should I bluff the river?

Any thoughts/feedback/analysis appreciated.

Seems ok to me as played

Looks fine to me

Wp

(1) Nope
(2) Not for that bet  :)
(3) You cant rep anything better than what you have, and you have good showdown value with your T.

good hand imo

i'd have played it the same

1) we don't rly wanna play for stacks this deep even tho our hand is pretty strong
2) no
3) if you bluff the river, you are specifically trying to get an ace to fold on a board where a shit load of draws missed (they aren't going to fold an ace).  coupled with the fact that they don't have an ace that often and that we beat some stuff check is clearly best.  small point in this tourney but you should also consider that if you attempt to turn KTs into a bluff here (it's probs more of a value bet/weird merge tbh) then you have very little check behind range and therefore a whopping great river bluff range but as I say this isn't something you especially have to consider in this tournament

As the pros have said u played it spot on champ no need for further disscusions.
Delete thread!

I think there's a pretty good case for reraising the flop, but other than that yeah I agree with everyone else.

Hi James. What's your reasoning behind reraising the flop?

Unless you want to get to the bar quick or want to double up or go to bed, 3betting the flop just is bad.

Keys vs Crab.

gogogogogogo

No arguing going to happen. Keys knows its bad.

Reasoning is we dominate so much and want to get more money in. Yeah if we get all in we're likely against a set, but there are a fair few combo draws we'd love to get it in against, J9 J8 89 86 96 64 of clubs, we're v happy to get more money in against Ax of clubs and this is our best chance do that while we're still ahead, and we're not in terrible shape if we are up against AT, an overpair, 2 pair or a set, some of which we probably get to fold. I guess you're saying the main downside is that we're not in great shape when we get it in, but I don't think it's as bad as you think, see stoves below. The other possible downside is that we perhaps lose a bet from worse top pair hands, but I don't think they're all that likely to be in villain's range and if they are they're unlikely to bet again, or that we get worse flush draws to fold when they would have hit, but I think the risk of that happening is outweighed by the extra money we make from the times they call and miss.

Board: Th 5c 7c
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    46.235%     46.24%    00.00%              5035            0.00   { KcTc }
Hand 1:    53.765%     53.76%    00.00%              5855            0.00   { TT, 77, 55, Jc9c, Jc8c, 9c8c, 8c6c } - vs sets and good combo draws (overcard+gutshot fd or up and down fd)

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    42.548%     42.48%    00.07%              9252           15.00   { KcTc }
Hand 1:    57.452%     57.38%    00.07%             12498           15.00   { TT, 77, 55, T7s, 75s, T7o, 75o } - vs sets and two pairs

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    47.976%     47.93%    00.05%             14234           15.00   { KcTc }
Hand 1:    52.024%     51.97%    00.05%             15436           15.00   { TT, 77, 55, AcQc, AcJc, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, Jc9c, T7s, 9c8c, 8c6c, 75s, T7o, 75o } vs sets, two pairs, good combo draws and some nut fds

Nice post but your ranges are so far off in a live tournament in level 1 that it makes the whole thing void im afraid. Its easy to argue a case by posting incorrect hand ranges to make our argument appear correct when infact its still wrong.

Obv no offence but you know what I mean. Snoopy is the op, some of the hands mentioned are simply not in villains range preflop and some of them they aint stacking off with that you mention and obviously these are the hands that make our equity appear better than it realistically is.

If villain is only raising the flop with sets then yeah it's bad. Any other scenario, e.g. villain raises some nfds or combo draws and then flats the 3bet instead of getting it in, which isn't pure fantasy on my part imo, 3betting the flop becomes best play.

You realise Villain 1 is MORE likely to have the type of hand "you want to get more money in against" ie worse draws, is about to fold when you 3 bet

It might not be pure fantasy but seems overly optimistic. I mean including every combination of T7os and 75os? Really? Obviously it just so happens we have good equity against these holdings I assume :)

Ha, yeah ok maybe that is a bit hopeful, but now I'm the one reminding you that this is level 1 of a live tournament :P


Yeah I realise that, but I think by keeping the pot 3-way we really hamstring ourselves on the turn and river wrt getting value when we hit a flush and having to fold river very often when we don't improve.

High variance poker in possibly the worst field ever assembled for £500 buyin in level 1. I used to do it, and you can check my hendonmob record to see the results. Online if i got it in he would have a set and id make a flush. Live he would have a set and id make a flush and hed make a boat :)

+1, agree with above, wp.

Personally I think that in this spot the extra value is worth the variance, but admittedly that's something that is pretty much impossible to quantify. Then again, if we're bringing hendonmobs into it, I think we has a winner in greeky's contest, wiiiiii :D

You can have the hendonmob but Im not letting you dig your way out of this hole!

Cliffs- Keys is wrong because Villain 2 doesnt have the range he assigns, therefore our equity is nowhere near as good as his pokerstove suggests. And all the hands that pokerstove includes that we have good equity against are about to be folded out by villain 1 when we 3 bet.

:)

Might seem crazy but folding might even be better than 3betting.

OK in the interests of balance, here is the worst case scenario stove:

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    29.740%     29.74%    00.00%              2061            0.00   { KcTc }
Hand 1:    70.260%     70.26%    00.00%              4869            0.00   { TT, 77, 55 }

Obv you're saying that this is villain's stacking range, but what realistically do you think villain's flop raising range is? Sets are only 7 combos, so if there's other stuff in there, AT, JJ, 75, nfds and combo draws, we're saying he folds these hands or flats + folds turn which is hugely profitable for us.

Actually the worst case scenario would be us 3 betting, villain 1 calling, villain 2 shoving, us calling, villain 1 calling.

Villain 1 has the nut flush draw and villain 2 has a set :)

3250 and cawl

@Dubai: ha, didn't even consider that... 1.7% fwiw, get therrrrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeee

@Pleno1: yay! finally an ally

all I know is that if I busted this hand in the worlds softest ever monkey freeze with 100bags ftw in a 600big blind pot then Id feel like a complete mongrel

If you thought it was such incred value then actually playing it might have been a good idea :P

Dubai, if this was Super Tuesday on Stars, what would you do?

Haha touche, Keys 1 - 0 Nicholson

I stayed home and lost more money, quicker and form the comfort of my desk :(

can we add some random overpairs (QQ+) please.  there were some lunatics and very aggro/bad players in this. looks pretty much vwp snoops, but iv toyed w the ranges and we need more info on the villain (chips stacked how/clothing/age/blabla).

It was only a matter of time before this question, or something like it, appeared in this thread. Personally I think it isn't relevant, when at a new table and facing a decision you have to profile your unknown opponent as someone who plays like an average opponent in this particular field, something that will obviously be very different between the UKIPT Nottingham and the Super Tuesday. I am more interested in people's answer to this question:


At first I was advocating a flop 3bet because the way I think the hand is going to play out after we call, purely intuitively, is that we will be putting more money in on the turn and folding the river when we miss, or stuck with deciding between bet/fold and check/call on the river with a very well-defined hand. Obviously the scenario where we hit 2nd nuts isn't bad, but I don't think it's an amazing enough spot to justify the downside. Meanwhile, if we 3bet, even if villain's stacking range is only sets as Dubai says, provided villain's flop raising range is wider than this then I think we turn a pretty big profit. Worst case scenario for us is that the villain always just folds to our 3bet whenever he doesn't have a set (I think it's pretty obvious that we make mad dimes on average when villain flats our 3bet), in which case we lose 4k on average vs his sets and win 2.5k the rest of the time, so we only need him to have 'bluffs' in a ratio of 4:2.5 for us to profit. As stated before, there are only 7 combinations of sets so we only need villain to have >11 other combos. Imo, the average UKIPT villain has a range that looks something like AT, JJ, {QJ J9 J8 89 A2-A5 AJ AQ} in clubs, 75 and some random other stuff considering that he probably 'put you on Ace King'. This range is 34 combos without any of the random spazzes, I'm interested to see whether Dubai thinks the average villain isn't raising >11 non-set combos on this flop or whether he thinks that there is some way for villain to play vs our 3bet that owns us in some other way. Also I guess he could also say that it goes 3 way and we have 1.7% some proportion of the time, but I personally think that absolutely never happens. Finally, he could just be saying that raising is not better enough than calling to justify the extra variance, in which case this whole argument is just a difference of opinion and there's no concrete way to resolve it.

This is what I think.

great post also

Were far too deep to get it in here imo. I would get it in here if we wer 100bbs effective