blonde poker forum

Live £250 tourney
32 left
Last 5 min play of day 1
Blinds 800/1600 ante 200
My stack 33,000 (short)
average stack 80k+

I'm in BB with 95o
utg makes it 4.6k to play (known aggro player, very capable) from 70k
Mid position flats (known circuit pro) from 60k
Folds to me.

Obv not a shove knowing both players
Can I justify calling the extra 3k in this spot or is it straight in the muck?

Not sure why you ruled out shoving though.
Assuming you havent been too out of line, why do you not think it would get through.

Mr Aggressive is opening wide no? And Mid position Flatter doesnt smell too strong?
Neither of them are going to be callin 50% of their stacks off lightly especially at the end of the day?

Folding >>>> Shoving >>>> Calling

I think calling about 20bb deep against 2 players that better post flop than you oop with 95o is like burning money.

Looks a clear fold to me.

With previous history on both players I felt that utg, although aggro, was inviting a 3bet/shove.
again with previous history on MP felt he was flatting with near premium holding.
Just felt my shove wouldn't have got through.

SHOVING>CALLING>>>>>>>>>>>>FOLDING NOT EVEN CLOSE

I understand and aggree with what you're saying, I just couldnt get my head around whether there was any perceived value in flatting.

95o has terrible equity vs wide ranges, it has terrible equity vs narrow ranges, in this hand we have terrible implied odds, we are out of position against 2 reasonable players... im not sure if this thread is even serious!

This is a serious question.

There's 13300 in the pot it's 3k to flat.
If flop misses then i'm out if i hit it hard then there's a good chance of a treble up.
Is that not worth the risk at this late stage in the day?

At least i got the right option first

Arrows wrong way round?

you sure you meant that rupert?

Yeah i just realised that

Sigh

wtffffff

I know its a natural instinct to think calling because of the perceived value can be deemed correct, but this hand OP to 2 competent players is just asking for trouble, especially out of this stack... you have virtually a perfect 3 bet shove stack ..wait for better spots... simples ....

am bit scared im getting level 2'd here but just in case it wasnt obvious clearly shoving or calling here is fucking horrendous.  calling is the worst option if ur gonna do some more off when u hit something, but shoving is probs like a -3bb+ play

Therefore it should be

folding >>>>>>>> shoving>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>calling

Which means I was right

Bink

Oh happy day.

(http://i219.photobucket.com/albums/cc43/kinboshi/brokenwatch.jpg)

Thanks all.
I did call and totally missed. Just wasn't keen on coming back as the short stack on the next day so was pretty pathetically desparate.

As it happens I did come back for day 2 and managed to grind for 2 hours, virtually card dead until AK<JJ closely followed by my bowl of rice KTs into JJ again.

If you flat and the flop comes 923 what do you do?

your stack off

Cheers mr elder, I was asking op though.

Hfthgfduydtdgew

Probs stack off.
If it was that flop it would have paid off. Lol

Calling preflop is a huge mistake just because of how badly our hand plays vs virtually anything. What's that? We need some graphs to demonstrate this? Well ok then as you asked :p
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=t:0,0.1,0.21,0.28,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.97,1.02,1.02,1.05,1.16,1.29,1.29,1.39,1.52,1.62,1.65,1.68,1.83,1.88,2.02,2.22,2.4,2.58,2.75,2.93,3.19,3.87,4.19,5.07,6.18,6.89,7.9,8.61,8.91,9.14,9.26,9.41,9.53,9.74,9.81,10.11,10.57,11.02,11.3,11.56,11.78,12.02,12.11,12.36,13.01,13.7,14.82,15.19,15.49,15.6,15.83,15.99,16.21,16.48,16.63,16.97,17.2,17.6,18.0,18.71,19.38,20.18,20.65,21.05,21.72,23.39,25.15,26.99,29.12,33.04,37.1,41.26,44.76,48.89,52.82,56.89,59.79,63.64,67.46,70.94,73.95,75.88,83.59,90.96,100.0|100,99.0,98.0,97.0,96.0,95.0,94.0,93.0,92.0,91.0,90.0,89.0,88.0,87.0,86.0,85.0,84.0,83.0,82.0,81.0,80.0,79.0,78.0,77.0,76.0,75.0,74.0,73.0,72.0,71.0,70.0,69.0,68.0,67.0,66.0,65.0,64.0,63.0,62.0,61.0,60.0,59.0,58.0,57.0,56.0,55.0,54.0,53.0,52.0,51.0,50.0,49.0,48.0,47.0,46.0,45.0,44.0,43.0,42.0,41.0,40.0,39.0,38.0,37.0,36.0,35.0,34.0,33.0,32.0,31.0,30.0,29.0,28.0,27.0,26.0,25.0,24.0,23.0,22.0,21.0,20.0,19.0,18.0,17.0,16.0,15.0,14.0,13.0,12.0,11.0,10.0,9.0,8.0,7.0,6.0,5.0,4.0,3.0,2.0,1.0,0.0&chs=450x300&chds=0,100&chxt=x,y,x,y,t&chxl=0:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|1:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|2:||Percentage+of+flops||3:||Min.%20Equity||4:||Propokertools.com|&chxs=0,000000|1,000000&chxtc=0,-300|1,-450&chf=bg,s,DDFFDD&chco=D13621)
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=t:0,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.31,0.43,0.54,0.59,0.92,1.13,1.31,1.53,1.76,1.99,2.17,2.38,2.69,2.97,3.18,3.66,4.06,4.65,5.13,5.56,6.07,6.8,7.22,7.7,8.05,8.64,9.27,9.78,10.28,10.73,11.09,11.36,11.61,11.85,11.98,12.11,12.28,12.4,12.48,12.65,12.82,12.95,13.2,13.42,13.59,13.85,14.03,14.23,14.42,14.56,14.75,14.95,15.25,15.64,15.99,16.4,16.58,16.86,17.0,17.16,17.38,17.64,17.9,18.11,18.29,18.68,19.1,19.6,20.17,20.86,21.68,23.78,26.11,29.12,32.46,37.22,40.77,44.93,49.88,53.94,58.64,64.08,67.39,69.99,72.27,74.05,76.9,79.37,82.18,87.41,92.26,96.05,100.0|100,99.0,98.0,97.0,96.0,95.0,94.0,93.0,92.0,91.0,90.0,89.0,88.0,87.0,86.0,85.0,84.0,83.0,82.0,81.0,80.0,79.0,78.0,77.0,76.0,75.0,74.0,73.0,72.0,71.0,70.0,69.0,68.0,67.0,66.0,65.0,64.0,63.0,62.0,61.0,60.0,59.0,58.0,57.0,56.0,55.0,54.0,53.0,52.0,51.0,50.0,49.0,48.0,47.0,46.0,45.0,44.0,43.0,42.0,41.0,40.0,39.0,38.0,37.0,36.0,35.0,34.0,33.0,32.0,31.0,30.0,29.0,28.0,27.0,26.0,25.0,24.0,23.0,22.0,21.0,20.0,19.0,18.0,17.0,16.0,15.0,14.0,13.0,12.0,11.0,10.0,9.0,8.0,7.0,6.0,5.0,4.0,3.0,2.0,1.0,0.0&chs=450x300&chds=0,100&chxt=x,y,x,y,t&chxl=0:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|1:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|2:||Percentage+of+flops||3:||Min.%20Equity||4:||Propokertools.com|&chxs=0,000000|1,000000&chxtc=0,-300|1,-450&chf=bg,s,DDFFDD&chco=D13621)
(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=t:0,0.14,0.14,0.29,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.98,1.03,1.06,1.07,1.08,1.13,1.14,1.24,1.3,1.33,1.38,1.45,1.57,1.65,1.8,1.92,2.1,2.36,2.59,2.84,3.06,3.28,3.53,3.83,4.24,4.67,5.12,5.69,6.2,6.66,7.22,7.69,8.14,8.54,8.85,9.1,9.43,9.75,10.12,10.56,11.13,11.51,11.85,12.16,12.42,12.8,13.37,14.12,14.62,14.92,15.18,15.42,15.64,15.82,16.04,16.17,16.28,16.5,16.68,16.98,17.28,17.6,18.18,18.53,18.99,19.82,20.91,22.4,24.41,26.91,30.13,33.65,37.3,40.99,45.79,51.7,56.2,60.13,63.48,68.45,72.28,74.8,77.14,83.41,92.33,100.0|100,99.0,98.0,97.0,96.0,95.0,94.0,93.0,92.0,91.0,90.0,89.0,88.0,87.0,86.0,85.0,84.0,83.0,82.0,81.0,80.0,79.0,78.0,77.0,76.0,75.0,74.0,73.0,72.0,71.0,70.0,69.0,68.0,67.0,66.0,65.0,64.0,63.0,62.0,61.0,60.0,59.0,58.0,57.0,56.0,55.0,54.0,53.0,52.0,51.0,50.0,49.0,48.0,47.0,46.0,45.0,44.0,43.0,42.0,41.0,40.0,39.0,38.0,37.0,36.0,35.0,34.0,33.0,32.0,31.0,30.0,29.0,28.0,27.0,26.0,25.0,24.0,23.0,22.0,21.0,20.0,19.0,18.0,17.0,16.0,15.0,14.0,13.0,12.0,11.0,10.0,9.0,8.0,7.0,6.0,5.0,4.0,3.0,2.0,1.0,0.0&chs=450x300&chds=0,100&chxt=x,y,x,y,t&chxl=0:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|1:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|2:||Percentage+of+flops||3:||Min.%20Equity||4:||Propokertools.com|&chxs=0,000000|1,000000&chxtc=0,-300|1,-450&chf=bg,s,DDFFDD&chco=D13621)

I kinda picked villain hands at random but you get the drift we're flopping good equity hardly ever vs anything. we actually flop very little quite a bit and when we stack off then its a pricey mistake (the 952 example is a good one)

Jamming however, we're jamming 31,200 to win 13,800? I imagine we'll have somewhere between 15-30% vs a decent calling range so needs to get through like 65%ish of the time to show us some profit. (not done the maths properly) but I can see that being about right

Still prefer folding though, wait till we have better equity when we're called.

Fold.  You said we have 95o right?

sums it up in 7 words and no graphs needed

wp