blonde poker forum

Tips, Prices, sweats and disasters please..on this thread

Tuesday 14th June 2011
   
2:30   Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions´ Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m BBC1
3:05   King´s Stand Stakes (British Champions´ Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 5f BBC1
3:45   St James´s Palace Stakes (British Champions´ Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 1m BBC2
4:25   Coventry Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f BBC2
5:00   Ascot Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 2m4f BBC2
5:35   Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f BBCi
   
Wednesday 15th June 2011
   
2:30   Jersey Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f BBC1
3:05   Windsor Forest Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m BBC1
3:45   Prince of Wales´s Stakes (British Champions´ Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f BBC2
4:25   Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m BBC2
5:00   Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 5f BBC2
5:35   Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m BBCi
   
Thursday 16th June 2011
   
2:30   Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f BBC1
3:05   Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 1m4f BBC1
3:45   Gold Cup (British Champions´ Series) (Group 1) Cl1 2m4f BBC2
4:25   Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) Cl2 1m BBC2
5:00   Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) (formerly the Hampton Court Stakes) Cl1 1m2f BBC2
5:35   King George V Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f BBCi
   
Friday 17th June 2011
   
2:30   Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 6f
3:05   King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f
3:45   Coronation Stakes (British Champions´ Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m
4:25   Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f
5:00   Queen´s Vase (Group 3) Cl1 2m
5:35   Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f
   
Saturday 18th June 2011   
   
2:30   Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f
3:05   Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f
3:45   Golden Jubilee Stakes (British Champions´ Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f
4:25   Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f
5:00   Duke of Edinburgh Handicap Cl2 1m4f
5:35   Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) Cl2 2m5f159y

Don't go much for this Festival bankers stuff but not been as struck by a 2yo filly as I was by Meehan's for a long time. She looked something very special at Haydock.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=53595.0

Haven't got the foggiest about horse racing but I know enough to know that I should be looking forward to watching both Frankel and the Canford Cliffs v Goldikova race. Managed to bag tickets for the weekend with a friend so will do my bollocks in backing the 3 legged donkeys no doubt.

Any tips much appreciated!

Jees chompy, i had to go thru the card to work out who u were going on about then, ffs mate plain english next time!

Shumoos in 500 weds yeah? If so looks like books agree at supposed 7/4 sp.

Oops, yep, that's the girl Nico. Wait for the day, once-raced filly and price should drift.

I would be pretty surprised if Shumoos went off bigger than 2/1 tbh.  It is the best prospect I have seen to lineup in this race since Lyric fantasy years ago.

I definitely like Goldikova, especially if the ground is genuinely good to soft. 13/8 is huge, should be marginally odds on imo.

I'm also on Kingsgate Native at 16/1 as Coral seemed really keen to take it on last week when most of the other bookies were 12, 10 or even 8/1. I had intended to trade out but the more I look at the race the more I can't see anything obvious to beat it so at this stage I'll let it ride. The racing press seem to see Astrophysical Jet 14/1 as the one that represents value at this stage so I might have a small e/w interest on that one too.

I disagree. I think Goldikova is past her best and Canford Cliffs will come late to nick the Queen Anne, providing there's not too much rain.

Frankel is surely a nocker in the St James' Palace, but i'm not overly taken with 2/5 shots, and So You Think will win the Prince of Wales on Wednesday, but again at very short odds.

I've had a decent sized treble on the above three, at 6/4, 2/5 and 4/7, and I'll just dabble at the rest for interest.

On the point of Shumoos, I do think it looked a special thing, but i'm not sure 7/4 is fair. Also, I quite like the look of Frederick Engels at around 4/1 in the 5.35pm on Tuesday. He finished 2nd behind Shumoos and has since won a decent race at Musselburgh very easily.

I also think Es Que Love is a decent e/w shout for a place in the 5.35pm Tuesday at around 33/1. Fast little thing who likes to lead from the front, which I like in 5f races.

I too like anything which leads from the front.

i prefer them to lead over the line  :D

2.30 - Canford Cliffs
3.05 - Astrophysical Jet
3.45 - Dubawi Gold (Place)
4.25 - Gatepost
5.00 - Ashbrittle
5.35 - Es Que Love (e/w - thanks Danny!)

Good luck Silo, hope he holds on for a place pal!

Apart from the Canford, Frankel, So You Think treble, I've just had a little e/w lucky 15 for interest...

3.05 - Monsieur Chevalier - 20/1
4.25 - Power - 5/1
5.00 - Veiled - 11/2
5.35 - Frederick Engels - 4/1

Bkd canford cliffs for a nifty in first race as coral emailed me an offer where first 50 bet is refunded if it loses, bad sign if im being sent offers!

Also had a word for astrophysical jet in the second and am on ew first 4.

Frankel's race is a dream for ew backers, problem is i don't see this getting beat. Still tempted as yr getting dble even treble the place value, another prob is getting on.

Will look at other races later.

Gl all!

If you use the shops you will get on ew this week without too many problems in my experience.  I am not actually sure that it is that great value in this race though because for once you really are giving a lot away in the win portion of the bet.  For example betting 12/1 ew Dream Ahead you are getting 3/1 the place about a 2.2/1 shot so a positive expectation of £25 for every hundred but if you assume the horse is a true 20/1 shot then you have a negative expectation of £35 for the win portion @ 12/1 and that assumes you are getting a quarter the odds.

on goldikova in 1st

FML was about to get £50 win on Canford Cliffs but couldnt get on in time :(

My biggest bet of the last couple of years was on Canford Cliffs in last years 2000 Guineas at 12/1.....FML!!!  How expensive was Pesliers pound overweight there though???

Yeah obv u can get on in shops more or less, but who wants to do that! :)

Prefer grntd priced and not having to share space with the local geniuses tbh.

The frankel race is not a race the bookies will want to take each way bets on. For a start most go 1/4 the odds,-therefore u MUST shop around, not all odds on shots win, and i'm not sure about those stats you've highlighted-tbh the way you've arrived at the numbers confused-but interested me. :)

You get 2.25-1 on excelebration placing when after comish it's an even money shot on betfair. This one is about 11-1 on betfair and imo is a cracking ew bet.

Dettori's rag in the race is available at 125's ew, therefore you get 31.25-1 on the place, on betfair it's less than 12-1 to do so.

I don't see how there isn't value in backing these each way, you can't just completely right off the win parts either, but yr negative expectation comment does intrigue me, not sure how you get at those numbers tho.

Oh and wiiiiiiiiiii canford!

Impressive performance wd those who were on. Struggling to believe they were calling that ground good to soft yesterday and the less said about the overweight the better.

Did Canford cliffs win?

I am not sure that every horse in the race isn't value each way as I haven't done the maths so you could be right.  I only looked at Dream Ahead.  The maths is fairly simple.  Take the percentage chance of something occuring (In this example I took the midpoint of the betfair price as a good approximation) and multiply it by the price avaiulable (in decimals).  So if you think a horse is a genuine 2/1 chance and is available at 9/4 it would be 33.33*3.25 which equals 108.32.  Basically the figure you get is what you long term returns would be for every £100 staked.  Happy to expand if this isn't easy to follow but prob better by PM so as not to derail thread.

Backed Prohibit £10ew @ 12/1 in the next.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

wd vnice

£20 win on Power @ 5/1 in the 4:25.

The 1lb overweight made ZERO difference in that race. It was over at the 2pole as Goldikova simply did not have a big enough lead when she kicked. Canford won quite handily imo.
I also like the look of Excelebrate to finish behind Frankel in the next. Decent e/w shout.

Bit disappointed with Hughesy in race two though. Thought my 20/1 e/w thievery might get rewarded when it got smashed into 12/1...never in the race! Sigh.

Is Frankel unbeatable?

TWO POUNDS OVER!!!! Still had no say in the outcome.

Have had a cheeky small ew bet on the raggy neebrass@100-1, really does look wide open behind the fav.

Betfair's positivity for excelebration to place means i'll have to get on this small ew, but tbh i'd like 10s on it and am not sure i'll get this so will keep stakes low.

Prob a race to just enjoy and watch a potential great stroll away.

Just stuck my £150 profit on Prohibit on Frankel @ 1/3 for a £200 return. Biggest bet ive ever made hope they havnt hyped it up too much!!

Sounds like yr just raving to yrslf mate! Im presuming yr reacting to something said on the beeb??

And yeah agree 1/2 pound makes no diff at all to res there.

Hate backing odds on tbh, but if ive ever seen a 1/3 shot that potentially looks value this might be it. Was tempted to get involved this morning at 2/5 and wld have if it had reached 1/2 or lower. Gl, v strong on betfair which is a good sign.

Can we funk for Frankel plz.

Haha yeah I'm reacting to something I heard. Olivier Peslier was 2lb over on Goldikova, but it still made no odds imo.

Gl girgy, barring a disaster in the stalls i think you'll £200 up!

I agree it was massively impressive  in the Guineas but a couple of things worry me.  Firstly, it was fast ground that day.  If it goes off so fast with a bit more cut it might come back to the field a lot quicker.  Secondly, Excelebrations is potentially better than the best of the 2000 guineas field.  Finally, could it bounce??

Get there one timee

WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

EASY EASY EASY EASY EASY

Omg brown trouser moment for frankel bkrs near end!!!

Managed to get 10-1 on the 3rd in end, but shame my 100-1 cldnt just nab 3rd instead was 4th.

lol that was a bit premature, but


Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Yea gotta admit was premature and my arse was nipping near the end.

Great horse but I think with proper cut it isn't going to get home.  Be interesting if it ever runs on soft ground.

Yeah nice drag for all, but Tom Queally is a stinker of a jockey!

Correct, Queally wants to ride every horse like he's on one of Barney's gambles. Awful.

Being dull and backing the fav power in the next ew, looks to have favourites chance at 4's.

glglglgl got £20 win @ 5/1 and on for the hattrick.

I'm on Power too...but I like the look of the yank horse, Italo. Think it's got a decent e/w sniff at around 16/1.

Might aswell join in with the forum sweat on Power.

im on Italo so that pretty much counts that Donkey out completely.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Another 'i was gonna' from me but i was gonna put £5ew on The 2nd horse.

Wiiiiii it seems the blondes are on fire, girgy especially! Nice one dude!

Veiled and Frederick Engels now in the last two for a great day!

Ok am putting £20 win on Junior in the 5:00 if this stewards inquiry doesnt stop power from winning it.

I like Junior and bet him at Cheltenham, but he's up 10lb and that's what made me side with Veiled. I wouldn't worry about the Stewards, the result was not affected.

Hmmm, Ryan looked worried to me...can't be a reversal surely??

Paiiiiiiii me William Hill.

Girgy on a rolllllllllll...if junior wins I'm following you in the last!

Does yr magic theory involve backing the fav in each race mate? :)

Missed the 9/2 on Junior with that stewards enquiry. Im on £20 win @ 4/1.

I'm on tyrells wood ew@16s and may pick another, may not.

Prohibit sure was the fav ;)

Was about 3rd fav so yr right about that i guess, cld be exception that proves the rule though.

I'm just saying backing the fav blindly isn't going to work longterm. Not that u ness are doing that, ive just a feeling yr not exactly an outsiders man.

Putting the odd reasoning to yr bets cld easily quash this theory of mine mate. :)

Not that i always do, i just dont think you ever seem to.

it was like 8th fav when he backed it :) i got 14/1 too after i saw brents tweet :P

Also backing la estrella ew here, will be a diff experience to what it's used to but a winners a winner and this one has won like 13 races.

20-1 seems fair.

Zigato and a cheeky e/w bet on La Estrella @ 40/1

betfair win price but cert wasnt 10-1 on first 4! :)

Was on 365, about 20 mins before race.

Doesnt matter Zigato late run screwed my place.

Wiiiiiii gogogo Veiled!! Frederick Engels for a nice lucky 15 now!

omg so sik, u actually got all the value there, ul m8, was cursing zigato myself :(

On gentlemans code@7-1 ew here, us connections havent come over to see the pretty dresses, they are going 4 their 2nd win in 3 years in the race.

Looking for a lively outsider 2, will watch market.

Wd with veiled danny, vnice.

Edit- Stuck in the 25-1 shot Es Que Love ew mentioned itt.

Market speaks nicely of it and i just cant be bothered to trawl thru the form! :)

im a follower in this race.

glgl Nico ;)

Yeah hope Es Que Love can hold on for a place for you Nico. Doubt he'll reverse the form from Musselburgh when it was 2nd behind the Frederick Engels, but it may get closer than 25/1+ suggests as it looked beat early and didn't fully try imo. The same 1-2 here will do me!!

vnice winner again danny, horse was diff gravy to rest, im just glad the gent placed-tyty first 4 bookies-and the other gave a reas sweat, bring on tmrw!

BOOOOOOM!! 3 winners out of 4 in the £3 e/w L/15 should be a decent drag. Need So You Think tomorrow to bring in my main bet though!

Yeah thought Es Que Love might hold on for 3rd/4th a furlong out. Decent sweat at 33/1 though! Seems a decent day had by all, bookies aside obv ;)

Given how impressively Frederick Engels just won surely Shumoos could go off very short?

5/4 gen and ive just snapped up the 11/8 with lads bpg.

If that beat fred last time i think the rest might as well stay at home, have had a chunk on, esp with chomps highlighting it.


Wiiiii 1000 posts, hopefully a lucky one too.

Agree - didn't just beat it it won by 4.5 lengths hard held.

The idea that 2 pounds overweight had no effect on the outcome of the QA is just bizarre. I'd like to here what Chompy has to say as a man who obviously knows the business inside out but surely in normal handicapping terms 2lbs in a race like that  = approx 2 lengths?

Post more imo. copied your Lucky 15 from yesterday. ty ty.

Lumped on a So You Think & Shamoo double for a Free Willy tastic Wednesday bink.

Where is everyone today?

On Oracle in the first e/w

Oracle
I'm a Dreamer
So You Think
Dance and Dance
Shumoos

I think the bookies could take another pasting today as at least 3 fav's will go in. My main sweat is obvs for So You Think to complete my treble for the meeting, but i've also had a decent win/win/double on Codemaster in the 2.30 and Shumoos at 5.00. I fancied Codemaster anyway, but the fact that he's been clipped from around 100/30 this morning to a top priced 15/8 is a confidence booster. It's hard to oppose Shumoos after Frederick Engels franked his form yesterday, although i think Dozy could be the danger at a decent price.

They're my two main bets, but i've thrown in another L/15 for interest;

2.30 - Codemaster
3.05 - Sajjhaa
4.25 - Mont Agel
5.35 - Winter's Night

haha someone's found the bold key!!

Mont Agel my only bet today.

I like Sajjhaa here, backing frankie at ascot is always a bonus, the horse has an impressive record and everything just seems to just point towards this selection for me.

Seta has beaten a few of these and wld be the danger for me and ive saved on this, also having a small saver ew on the big priced shamander@50-1-looks a trier.

Done combo fcts and tcsts too.

Urgh cldnt have got that much more wrong, the irish runner wins, cldnt really decipher that ones form properly-was obv pretty good.

Well it's evident I couldn't pick my nose today! Jeez!

As it seems my fav's are not winning I'm going for 2 more long odds picks in the Hunt Cup as my L/15 is now a gonner...

Chapter and Verse - £10 e/w @ 28/1
Mr David - £10 e/w @ 66/1

Brilliant ride by dettori. Bookies having it off today

mmmm, could use a winner sooner or later.

Puke day

Massive +1

Bleeeeuuuurgh....absolute shocker of a day! Good luck all for the rest of the meeting, that's me done!

+1 took a pounding today :(

Shocking day, so glad I couldn't watch it live or methinks it could've been much much worse.

Silverheels in the first race.
4.25 Kuala Limper
5.35 Brown Panther

After yesterday's filth i've gone for a dream ew L15 and a steady selections to keep me interested:

E/W Lucky 15

COMMUNICATOR @ 12/1
BELGIAN BILL @ 15/2
OPINION POLL @ 16/1
CROWN DEPENDENCY @ 6/1

Lucky 15

BANNOCK @ 7/1
RUMH @ 10/3
TAZAHUM @ 7/2
APACHE @ 7/1

Lets do some binks.

Much better day for us value seekers yesterday, the mug favourite backers took a pounding.

Big fancy today for Tropical Beat in the 4.25 @ 12.5. Only concern is Buick will give it too much to do as usual and it will stay on to come 2nd.

Might have some flutters today, tips plz.

I've gone all in today. Tropical Beat is probs not a bad bet.

4 legs FTW.

(http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd152/lostcunts/43fe56ea.gif)

FML. now i am gonna be looking at horse pics all day.

Hope this Beckham wannabe isn't running today.

(http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i137/KeeperOfTheStars_2006/horsedurr.gif)

Crazy price about this jolly in the Gold Cup now. Quite fancied it at anything over 2-1 but 11/8 just has to be a lay.  Also don't really understand how Fictional Account can be 30.00 on Betfair when it hasn't been beaten by more than two lengths by the favourite on the two occasions they have met.  6.4 the place seems great value.

Brown Panther was different gravy. Nice to get a winner at the end of the day.

Wiiii. All 4 placed. got myself a mini bink.

After a decent result yesterday gone for the stars today. If my second one binks i am off to Vegas.

EW Lucky 15s

MIJHAAR @ 9/2
IMMORTAL VERSE @ 9/1 
WAYDOWNSOUTH @ 14/1
NAMIBIAN @ 9/2
 
CLINICAL @ 16/1
RIGHT STEP @ 16/1
GENIUS BEAST @ 10/1 
NOBLE CITIZEN @ 16/1

Lets gogogogo.

Done an each way yankee today.  Not sure what that is but it pays nice

1    Ascot 17th Jun - 14:30 Backing: Sajwah @ SP
2    Ascot 17th Jun - 15:05 Backing: Nathaniel @ SP
3    Ascot 17th Jun - 15:45 Backing: Together @ SP
4    Ascot 17th Jun - 16:25 Backing: Green Destiny @ SP

I have 22 lines apparently, surely one will come in :D

Lucky 15 E/W for me also. Need to calm it down a bit this week. If they all win I will just about be out the hole!  ;D

14.30 Lilys Angel @ 12/1 (GP)
15.05 Glens Diamond @ 7/1 (GP)
15.45 Claiomh Solais @ 14/1 (GP)
16.25 Green Destiny @ 15/8 (GP)

i'm going for a straight forecast on
the man with a chair leg+ champagne bottle swinger :D

The Duchess of Cambridge's parents attended Ladies' Day at Royal Ascot, where they avoided a vicious fight during which besuited men fought with table legs and Champagne bottles.

At least five men were involved in the full-scale brawl, which saw stunned racegoers scatter in fear.

One man wearing a tie was seen to swing a table leg at a man on the ground, while another grabbed a £98 Laurent Perrier Rose Champagne bottle to use as a weapon.

Another was held in a headlock as the fighting flared around a Champagne bar more used to being a place to trade tips than swap punches.

At least two men fled into the crowd to avoid being apprehended by course security officials.

No-one was arrested after the fracas, which was believed to have started over a young blonde woman.

Police revealed that one man ended up with a 50mm head gash during the melee.

Famous faces able to enjoy the day's races unhindered included motoring writer Richard Hammond, newly knighted Sir Bruce Forsyth and recently divorced Elizabeth Hurley.

Carole and Michael Middleton took part in the traditional horse-drawn carriage procession for the first time.

Their carriage followed the Queen, the Duke of Edinburgh and other members of the Royal Family.

The couple waved to the public who were braving the weather, the carriages entering the royal enclosure just as the heavens opened, prompting a flurry of umbrellas to be opened.

The Queen, accompanied by Prince Philip, was greeted by applause as she arrived.

Once in the enclosure, she spent time talking to jockeys, but made a fairly swift exit when the rain became even heavier.

FYP

GL :)

Interesting that all the talk after that last race was about Nathaniel for the St Leger @ 3/1.  I would be a backer of the second at double figure prices.

16/1 with Hills Fiorente for the Leger....I feel a major bet coming on!!!

Apparently Stoute responded to a question about whether Fiorente was a Leger horse with "I hope not".....not sure what to make of that!!

Complete puke at this week

Made a right mess, then more so trying to get out of it.

I am going to be 1/100th of what I normally do from now on.

EW Lucky 15 pay decent money Milligan? Looks good. Well played.

Both were quite small bets tbh. Friday, First one was £309 from £15 would have been decent if my 16/1 shot had held on for first...sigh.  second was £50 from £6. Profit is profit tho. Enjoyed the festival overall. Only one day which didn't show a profit but the loss wasn't too great.