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Author Topic: Royal Ascot  (Read 13327 times)
redarmi
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2011, 02:26:54 PM »

If you use the shops you will get on ew this week without too many problems in my experience.  I am not actually sure that it is that great value in this race though because for once you really are giving a lot away in the win portion of the bet.  For example betting 12/1 ew Dream Ahead you are getting 3/1 the place about a 2.2/1 shot so a positive expectation of £25 for every hundred but if you assume the horse is a true 20/1 shot then you have a negative expectation of £35 for the win portion @ 12/1 and that assumes you are getting a quarter the odds.
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outragous76
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« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2011, 02:30:38 PM »

on goldikova in 1st
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Girgy85
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« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2011, 02:33:09 PM »

FML was about to get £50 win on Canford Cliffs but couldnt get on in time Sad
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redarmi
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« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2011, 02:37:07 PM »

My biggest bet of the last couple of years was on Canford Cliffs in last years 2000 Guineas at 12/1.....FML!!!  How expensive was Pesliers pound overweight there though???
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Nico29
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2011, 02:42:35 PM »

If you use the shops you will get on ew this week without too many problems in my experience.  I am not actually sure that it is that great value in this race though because for once you really are giving a lot away in the win portion of the bet.  For example betting 12/1 ew Dream Ahead you are getting 3/1 the place about a 2.2/1 shot so a positive expectation of £25 for every hundred but if you assume the horse is a true 20/1 shot then you have a negative expectation of £35 for the win portion @ 12/1 and that assumes you are getting a quarter the odds.

Yeah obv u can get on in shops more or less, but who wants to do that! Smiley

Prefer grntd priced and not having to share space with the local geniuses tbh.

The frankel race is not a race the bookies will want to take each way bets on. For a start most go 1/4 the odds,-therefore u MUST shop around, not all odds on shots win, and i'm not sure about those stats you've highlighted-tbh the way you've arrived at the numbers confused-but interested me. Smiley

You get 2.25-1 on excelebration placing when after comish it's an even money shot on betfair. This one is about 11-1 on betfair and imo is a cracking ew bet.

Dettori's rag in the race is available at 125's ew, therefore you get 31.25-1 on the place, on betfair it's less than 12-1 to do so.

I don't see how there isn't value in backing these each way, you can't just completely right off the win parts either, but yr negative expectation comment does intrigue me, not sure how you get at those numbers tho.

Oh and wiiiiiiiiiii canford!
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2011, 02:43:20 PM »

Impressive performance wd those who were on. Struggling to believe they were calling that ground good to soft yesterday and the less said about the overweight the better.
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Christo!
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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2011, 02:45:04 PM »

Did Canford cliffs win?
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Nico29
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« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2011, 02:49:21 PM »

Did Canford cliffs win?
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Christo!
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« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2011, 02:51:03 PM »

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redarmi
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« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2011, 02:53:25 PM »

If you use the shops you will get on ew this week without too many problems in my experience.  I am not actually sure that it is that great value in this race though because for once you really are giving a lot away in the win portion of the bet.  For example betting 12/1 ew Dream Ahead you are getting 3/1 the place about a 2.2/1 shot so a positive expectation of £25 for every hundred but if you assume the horse is a true 20/1 shot then you have a negative expectation of £35 for the win portion @ 12/1 and that assumes you are getting a quarter the odds.

Yeah obv u can get on in shops more or less, but who wants to do that! Smiley

Prefer grntd priced and not having to share space with the local geniuses tbh.

The frankel race is not a race the bookies will want to take each way bets on. For a start most go 1/4 the odds,-therefore u MUST shop around, not all odds on shots win, and i'm not sure about those stats you've highlighted-tbh the way you've arrived at the numbers confused-but interested me. Smiley

You get 2.25-1 on excelebration placing when after comish it's an even money shot on betfair. This one is about 11-1 on betfair and imo is a cracking ew bet.

Dettori's rag in the race is available at 125's ew, therefore you get 31.25-1 on the place, on betfair it's less than 12-1 to do so.

I don't see how there isn't value in backing these each way, you can't just completely right off the win parts either, but yr negative expectation comment does intrigue me, not sure how you get at those numbers tho.

Oh and wiiiiiiiiiii canford!

I am not sure that every horse in the race isn't value each way as I haven't done the maths so you could be right.  I only looked at Dream Ahead.  The maths is fairly simple.  Take the percentage chance of something occuring (In this example I took the midpoint of the betfair price as a good approximation) and multiply it by the price avaiulable (in decimals).  So if you think a horse is a genuine 2/1 chance and is available at 9/4 it would be 33.33*3.25 which equals 108.32.  Basically the figure you get is what you long term returns would be for every £100 staked.  Happy to expand if this isn't easy to follow but prob better by PM so as not to derail thread.
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Girgy85
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« Reply #25 on: June 14, 2011, 03:03:06 PM »

Backed Prohibit £10ew @ 12/1 in the next.
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Best poster Girgy IMO - Mantis

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Think Girgy has shown the best leopard instincts in this thread and would prob survive best in the wild. Eye of the tiger that fella - Mantis

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Girgy85
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« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2011, 03:11:34 PM »

Backed Prohibit £10ew @ 12/1 in the next.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
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Best poster Girgy IMO - Mantis

Girgy is my new hero! - Evilpie

Think Girgy has shown the best leopard instincts in this thread and would prob survive best in the wild. Eye of the tiger that fella - Mantis

Girgy is a m'fkn machine - Daveshoelace
Nico29
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« Reply #27 on: June 14, 2011, 03:11:53 PM »

Backed Prohibit £10ew @ 12/1 in the next.

wd vnice
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Girgy85
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« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2011, 03:22:54 PM »

£20 win on Power @ 5/1 in the 4:25.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2011, 03:25:24 PM by Girgy85 » Logged

Best poster Girgy IMO - Mantis

Girgy is my new hero! - Evilpie

Think Girgy has shown the best leopard instincts in this thread and would prob survive best in the wild. Eye of the tiger that fella - Mantis

Girgy is a m'fkn machine - Daveshoelace
danny_b
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« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2011, 03:34:18 PM »

The 1lb overweight made ZERO difference in that race. It was over at the 2pole as Goldikova simply did not have a big enough lead when she kicked. Canford won quite handily imo.
I also like the look of Excelebrate to finish behind Frankel in the next. Decent e/w shout.

Bit disappointed with Hughesy in race two though. Thought my 20/1 e/w thievery might get rewarded when it got smashed into 12/1...never in the race! Sigh.
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