blonde poker forum

This might be 50p. Or this might be an easy fold. But I'm a bit sick of near bubbling satellites and wanting to go on a killing spree.

Tonights DTD live £300 satellite. 18 remain, 15 paid. Blinds 800/1,600/200. I have around 12500, and am in CO. Folded to MP, who raises to 5,000 from a stack of around 15,000. Folded to me, and I look down at  Ac Kc. What do?

Average chipstack is about 20,000. There are lots of folk around with about my stack +/- 1000, and there are some known megadonks left in.

confirmed 50p

well he aint gonna fold so you need to work out if 3 people will go out in next 20 hands or so if not then shove if yes just fold
might be worth folding and shoving an un opened pot

sounds like a fold

Nits dominate winning seats in these by sitting tight late on letting others knock each other out in races. Easy fold

It never ceases to amaze me how many times people go broke on satellite bubbles in situations like this. You just need to make the top 15, not win the tournament. IMO with 18 left and 15 paid, raising 5k from 15k and not just shipping looks strong.

FWIW IMO on that site and that satellite with 3 to get knocked out what you should do is fold this hand after a timebank and then timebank every hand you have enough hands to most likely fold to a seat or get your chips in first with others making a mistake!

Need chip counts to assess this properly. At worst need op position in field.

follllllllllllllld

^^^
This

It's live, so I could go and sit in the bar, I suppose.

Question 1:

OK, so what should be my range for shipping this? Do I have one? Are QQ in it? JJ?

Question 2:

Let's suppose that my opponent has 12,499 chips. Does that make a difference?

Sounds like an easy fold as he's not raising 5K with 10K behind to fold to your shove.  Pretty much folding everything other than AA or maybe KK here.  No need to get involved in this hand, and if you feel like you need to take down a few more pots I'd wait until you can be first in the pot from late position when it's more likely you'll get it through and take down the blinds and antes without a race. 

...or do what someone did to me in the online satellite last night with about 20 left (10 seats), and call my raise in the BB with A6 against my AQ and get there.  Who's collecting the 50p?

I understand that. I'm not doing this with ATo. I just wasn't sure whether folding the third best hand in holdem was too nitty. To answer outrageous' question, I think I'm going to have to win more pots to make it. I can't see the other table well, but I think I'm 8 of 9 on our table.

I think QQ > AK

In this situation, you're probably right.

I think in this sort of satellite situation, getting it in first with the blinds/stack ratio you have and the number of players remaining is key.  You don't have enough to get the initial raiser to pass - and so if you do shove, you're basically accepting that you're racing with A-high, and the risk/reward isn't worth it.

Fold, my range is kk+ in this spot.

Fold and its not even close.

one of my stable went out 12th in the sat with KK and pretty much gave him a bollocking. i had switched the lappy off pretty much thinking he had another seat locked. think that was his 3rd this month so no biggy.

KK is stack and situation dependent, as is AA actually.  In Skippy's situation I'm playing both of those hands, and sigh-folding QQ.

is it possible to pokerstove the hand guy?

jassssssssssson its an ICM calc you need here not pokerstove :P

I think even if you'd decided you couldnt ladder into the money, folding here and open jamming  Kc Ts next hand is a better move

ty dave. you are obv right. cant do either anyway. spoke to Jamie yesterday. told me he got his dough off.
railing the captain?

Herbie

Can you tell us more about your horses?

mostly mates that i back for sentimental reasons rather than roi. i have backed some dtd regs in deepstacks and ukipts but once again this was more for my karma than looking at filling my wallet. just lost a massive amount of my life roll in a business that has gone tits up (more my greed than anything else) so limited staking at the moment.

No one has answered question 2).


Also let's add question no 3: suppose it's the same situation, but the raiser is on the button and I'm in the BB. Still folding?

Question 2 - Makes no difference
Question 3 - Yes, more tempted to call if he shoves though

Question 4 to Herbs - Horses one of stakes or on MU?

Im still folding this from the BB as you are only posting the SB next hand and then have at least 1full orbit and you can pick which stacks or players you are getting your stack in 1st against to lock up the seat as live or net winning 1 set of blinds and antes could be enough to get your seat.

never done mu because its always with mates/people i like and too many people fall out over money. i have not been one to swop %ages with mates but have swopped with a couple of chinese guys because its my way of gambling (started with a kid in hull and now is with frankie). this does cause a little friction with close mates because it is obv one way traffic for the vast majority of the time. but i have a soft spot for both these two guys so it does not bother me.

it's usually give and take so often people i'm helping out will drive (especially while i was on my 6 month ban) or have done something for me in the past (my optician is a diamond and sorts out a load of my family). i give a bit back to the guys who i first started to play a bit of live poker back in the day who sit 5 nights a week in hull casino never really going anywhere. these were my original pupils who subscribed "ABC poker, who to beat idiots".

i have also backed a few dealers who wanna give a better game a crack but this never works out well. they think that coz its £150/£300/£500 buy in then they are gonna be playing this poker game that is a better standard and will need  another level thinking. despite my advise that they will still be playing mostly idiots they end up making plays that aint ever gonna work.

then there is the one offs who i think deserve a bit of a break and my run good $'s. i never really complain about bad beats especially if i am less than a 80% because thats just poker and i try to remain positive all the time. i believe in karma and giving a little to gain a lot.

sorry if threads been a bit hijacked. truth is we all say fold but not many actually do. they just say fuck it and click that button coz no one can see you mess up. its loads easier to fold live coz you dont want that embarressment of people knowing you are the guy who chucked the seat away.

Can you use SnG Wiz to analyse this problem? I'm trying, but I'm not succeeding.


The problem I have with this response is that if you think my calling range is AA, KK, and therefore you think the other 5 stacks on my table of about the same size should have a similar range. Since it's odds against that anyone at the table has AA or KK, whoever is UTG can raise to 5000 blind every hand and it's profitable for him. I'm never going to get to shove KTo (unless I'm UTG) into an unopened pot since someone will have raised before me.

tldr: when I get KcTs in the HJ, I'm not going to get to shove it- the pot will already be opened.

Monday night with 20 left, 15 seats.

I shove 9 bigs with TT and get snapped by 7 bigs guy with A9. Sighballs.

Up to a quid.

Any more offers.

What I'm saying is that in these sats people are stupid enough to risk getting ko'd with A9 so you don't need to panic and get it in with AK.

Just sit tight and fold your AK. They'll knock each other out soon enough.

Obviously shove if it unopened but with zero FE it's not even close to calling.

KK+ for me to shove here.

[ x ] Satellite
[ x ] Disaster

far too much assuming people know what they're doing in this post