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4 limpers including Sunny Mistri who's limped the button. I complete from the SB with Qc 9h big blind checks. I'm playing 900, Sunny covers.

Flop (12) Qh 9c 4c I bet £10, one caller, Sunny calls

Turn (42) Js I bet £25, fold, Sunny thinks and slides in a stack of reds (100) I tank and call.

River (242) 5c I check, Sunny bets 210. I?

Are we calling or folding here? Shoving seems fairly sexy also. I don't think he'd have a flush here very often at all unless it's KTcc or T8cc.

Think his value range doesn't include any sets/two pairs.

He can show up with a bluff here though.

That's all.

Interesting spot.

Really strange river sizing huh.

I think calling is out of the question.

The question is, have we the balls to shove? He's surely tank folding 8T+QJ, but why bet pot when a bingo card lands otr?

He's certainly got us beat, as pretty much the only two hands I believe he semi bluffs on the turn are KTcc or AKcc, but he's literally NEVER limping this otb imo. I don't recon Sunny bluffs in big spots like this, but I'm guessing you've racked up more hours with him this deep than I ever have.

Has he played you long enough to know that you reship over the top with a flush draw and he therefore knows he's safe to value bet?

Big sigh fold for me.

level?

yh if he doesn't have a flush very often c/j ftw but people never fold so it's pretty dam spewy even though it's sicccck.

if he never has flushes/never value bets two pair + is capable of bluffing here then i guess we should call, but if this particular day you think he's been snuggling around and not likely to make a random bluff then i guess fold.

sizing is weird, but i love it if he has a set/straight.

i be called a nit here, but i'd prob fold turn.

No, what makes you say that?

pretty decent imo. hard to do in the heat of battle.

why did you bet £25 on the turn. seems to me like that has caused a lot of problems

is jhe capable of turning q10/qk into a bluff here?

in theory but don't seem him ever raising the turn with those hands.


cos i has a strong two pair. surely a clear spot for a value bet?

fold preflop and probably fold the turn. If hes competent he can value bet stronger 2 pairs/all sets/straights as well as showing up with a few flushes (i'd guess KTcc is the most likely hand). Theres an old addage of not going broke in a limped pot, completing in the SB you at least want something suited. I'd rather blast out a big raise as opposed to completing.

He prob has 810cc or K10cc, generally plays tight in cash games from what I've seen, especially when sat deep and winning.

Also don't ever fold Q9 pre for £1 in these games.

ldo

you'd flick it in with 74o though so i've seen lately.

This!!

Folding pre would be insane. Turn seems really read dependent.

My read was I felt he could be raising worse two pairs on the turn.

Don't think he's ever value betting the river with worse.

Any thoughts on shoving/re-raising the turn based on your read at that point?

He'd probs get away from all worse hands if I did that, then snap with straights.

So, and I'm looking to learn here too, what changed your mind on the river?
Just the sense that he never bets the river on this board without something better than two pair?
Or did you call and we're waiting for the reveal?

Based on a pretty small sample of playing with Sunny at Aspers Northampton last year I doubt he's limping the button with a lot of the hands that would beat you.

was questioning why you bet £25 rather than why bet at all

The problem isn't are immediate odds, its both finding it very differcult extracting value when we hit (we start betting into 4 players, alarm bells!) or with drawing hands we find it differcult to ever realise our equity as a vast % of the time someone else will hit the flop hard and not allow us to realise our equity. Im thoroughly convinced this isn't profitable even if we were sat at a table full of losing players.

At least if we raise to isolate we can win the pot by 1) making the best hand 2) bluffing. Here we need to make the best hand to often, and when your holding Q9o 4way thats going to be differcult. I'd probably only limp along with small pairs any Axs/Kxs. Although i'll likely raise big with 89s+, ATo/KJo type hands to narrow the field.

everyone will think we're an absolute nit though

Think you played it fine, fold now.

@whollyflush, we don't fold pre cos we're getting implied odds to flop even just the nut straight vs smaller straight, look at the effective stacks

technically i reckon we're sposed to fold preflop but then it's live poker where its joke slow so  I often just pay £1 so I can join in for the next couple of minutes + tell myself not to do the whole £900 on a Qhigh board.

 Ahrt

True, but in practice this never happens. Alot of the time we flop something or even top 2 and money goes into the pot without us flopping the str8. We then get excited start to pile money in, the board gets ugly and we face resistance. I suppose what im getting at is we need to be playing so close to perfect postflop, that most of us can't profitably flick in the £1. Completing with a hand weaker than most players limping range in a live game isn't going to make us money.

fold pre, fold turn, fold now.

Don't play bad then? There is a lower bound on our profit in this hand and it is -£1. If we do worse than that on average then we could improve our strategy by simply always checking and folding, hence it is not a good strategy. If we play appropriately postflop, i.e. Very cautiously with bottom 2 pair or less and wary that our opponents will probably expect to have implied odds for all gutshot draws etc on the flop, I am sure we will make a profit on this hand.


So what about 78s? 78o?

I disagree that this hand is on average weaker than people's limping range in a 1/2 live game. Ppl limp any 2 fkin cards.

Exactly. He can have 94o, J4o Q4o here. He'd literally limp atc on the button after a few limpers.

That's why folding the turn would be terrible because we beat a whole bunch of his value range. On the river he doesn't bet pot with 94 J4 Q4 etc.

I folded and was shown 74o and obviously regretted the decision. I think when he bets pot his range is polarised to KTcc T8cc, I don't think he'd size a bare T8, KT bet size that big, as my hand could easily be a flush and he'd be scared of that. So his value range is so narrow I think I should've called. Sounds so results orientated I know...

Wp Sunny. Sometimes you gotta get bluffed...

From a maths pov I still think shoving is more +EV than calling. We get beat by his straights/sets/better two pair by calling as well as his flushes (which I still see as pretty unlikely) obv.

Whereas when we shove, very few recreational players are going to call off seven hundred and fifty British pounds with anything less than a big flush, as it's a decent chunk of a lot of people's roll's.

I think two pair/straight/sets/some air are a much bigger part of his range by the river than the amount of flushes.

However, it would be a particularly risky tactic versus this villain due to his fondness of hero calling, especially with our perceived image. So yeah, still stand by the sigh fold.

bet turn bigger and dont induce a bluff or call river when u decided to call turn. your line didnt make much sense to me

folding pre seems ridic, its not a game full of astute pros grinding out small edges.

I can't help it :D You mentioned stacking smaller str8's but that can't happen with Q9o obv.  I didn't mean to imply ppl won't limp worse hands than Q9o just that 6way this hand has really bad reverse implied odds. Pretty sick how he turns up with 74o lol although i'd fold pre and fold the turn, i think you should probably call the river once you get there.

cant straight over straight with Q9?!

why fold turn when he has worse 2pairs here? 

bad bet sizing by him on river imo, but nice turn raise.

oops been playing too much recently brain is fried.

If hes competent i doubt he ever raises the turn with a worse 2 pair, its arguably more likely he would raise the flop.

I like both tbh.

Also agree with Ged, £35 is the pro's choice turn bet.

T8J ?

i think we polarize our value range to almost 108cc and k10cc exclusively and against live pros thats not a wise thing to do.

haha :(

eh?

as in, if we are villain, betting 210 polarises us to those hands.

Ahhh. Disagree. Dunno why pleno and Pinchop have decided the river sizing is especially 'big' or 'weird'.

This.

turn fold seems standard?

Can someone please explain to me why we're folding the turn when we beat J4 Q4 J9 and 94, all of which he could easily have in this spot.

Cos he's gonna pwn you on the river with 74o?

because the pot went super-multiway and he probably shouldnt ever raise any of those hands for value? Plus his raising range generally consists of v few bluffs, very strong made hands and very high equity semibluffs, which we'r gonna be oop to on a lot of dirty rivers....

probably shouldnt raise two pair but this guy would.
this guy wouldnt semi bluff draws
can spaz out

im convinced folding the turn vs this guy is wrong

i dont think its really a case of right or wrong, just think its gonna be a really high-variance spot.

Because its live cash, $210 into $240 is without doubt a HUGE bet in live cash.

Meh, when you take the ex rate into consideration it's not really that much.

That is both a silly reason and made up pleno

not the $ amount its the btpa (bet to pot amount) that looks very big in live 200nl game.

what is

river sizing seems ridic stnd to me. I honestly think people bet too small in live cash all the time which is daft because people tend to call pretty in-elastically

 

 ;booder;

betting <200 reps a far wwder value range and can only see him taking this exact line with exactly 108cc/k10cc.

80% pot bet doesnt need to get called as often to show the same profit + we have more of a chance of making more money etc.

thats how i see it anyways, when i have a good hand like 2 pair I bet big as a general rule lol

yeh but in 200nl games putting $210 into a $250 pot is polarizing.

People valyue bet like 140-180here from ym experience.

yh i agree. people tend to bet bigger with better hands if they Vbetting.

I agree with pleno here. If this guy had 2pair or a set he'd definitely bet less than 210. With a straight as well I'd expect a smaller bet, 140ish.

Although we would bet big for the reasons lil dave gives, villain is not on that level and isnt a pro.

for sho mr live pro

I know I'm late to this thread, and also not a sicko like everyone else; can confirm I said I would call in a pre-pha discussion with Alex.

Given my history with Sunny, both dealing to and playing with, I'm certain he doesn't bet this amount on the river with a hand he is confident about (ie a flush/straight). Raising the river is probably not bad given villain's high% sigh-call statistic, but I'm a pussy so I just snap call. When villain bets £125 on the river, that's when we think about folding.

Raising the river for value? nnooooo

lol I thought that's what you meant when you said raising was sexy. He's not folding better, so we're definitely not raising as a bruff.

Just wanted to say thanks for all the great comments. I'm new to the scene and have a lot to learn.

redsimon4