blonde poker forum

Bit of an interesting spot here..


$10/$20 NL (7handed)

Massive fish limps UTG2 playing ~$4k

I ISO  Kc Tc to $100 ($10k). Very good young reg calls next to act - MP ($4.5k) Another good reg peels the SB ($6k) the fish calls.

Flop ($420)  Ahrt  Td Ts

SB chks, Fish chks, I bet $240. MP (the good young reg) calls, the SB calls, fish folds.

Turn ($1,140) 6h

SB checks, I check, MP bets $720. SB tanks for ~2mins and folds. I call.

River ($2,580) 5s

I check, MP goes all in for $3,400.

waddddyathink.


SB is very solid, speshly OOP. The MP reg is aggressive but very shrewd, picks and times things pretty well in general. The fish in question is a super loose-passive fish.

*edit - the table was playing pretty solid, everyone just looking to get into pots with one of the three fish, two of which were sat our for this hand, hence 7 handed.

I don't see any reason why he can't have a worse ten here so I would call. I like your turn play also.

Plus what are we losing too ? AA, AT maybe T6s, T6s is unlikely as well, I can't find the fold button here.

wow. snappity and dont think its close at all.

he can think we have Ax and get us to fold (BLUFF)

he can think we have Ax and wont fold to a shove, so jams a worse 10 (VALUE)

is everyone not paying attention to the relevance of the SB in this hand

I take it in hand you're pretty sure the SB folded a weak ten on the turn?

I think it's more likely SB has AJ-AK which are obv blockers to hands we lose too.

I don't think it's as clear cut as what Pads is sayn but I'm not folding here.

yeh the good reg can flat aces against the whale, but if he has aces and we check turn then he probably thinks kings is close to the top of our range and jamming would be abit of a mistake then right?

i actually love making hero folds, but this really doesnt seem like a spot i'd consider folding.

also i like timing tells on live hands, how long it too you to do X, how long it took him to do Y.

Yh i figure AK/AQ to be almost 100% likely, pretty sure he'd 3bet neither hand ever and would peel a few Tx's T8s-KT prolly, these are the only hands I can imagine him over calling the flop with, so when our villain bombs the turn he is betting into very strong ranges - cos after the flop overcall I'm going to shut it off with a huge amount of my range, so once I've now called the turn I have a really really strong range as well, and he still wants to go ahead and wager three thousands and four hundreds of his $'s

I think once we chk call the turn AK is the BOTTOM of our range

why? if hes good then he will expect us to cbet q alot and can float us even if his attention was originally to play vs the fish, can have jqhh, kqhh, kjhh etc. Also can have suited aces that he bets for value when we check turn.

like are we really c/f with AQ here?

get dubai itt, he'll call.


i do disagree wit my kings being top of our range comment though.

FWIW river may be close with AK but k10 is def a snap here, we have the nut non full house and he's a very good very young reg.

btw, i think you switcharood this and you're the young reg.

I'm never folding here.

Can so easily be v.betting worse, and turning hands into bluffs, floating etc..

pretty sick hand that i scooped 5 fig pot?

I really think the SB's behavior in this hand is being super overlooked.

The implications of the SB folding an ACE here and both players knowing the other one knows it makes such a massive massive difference imo

Surely value shoving range for oppo is still (AK, AT, QT, JT, T9, maybe some other tens, the unlikely 666), and therefore we have to call.

There is a case to say that opponent may not value shove ace-king. He may not anyway given the strong action, and especially given the fact now that if he holds an ace, there is only one ace left in the deck. But even then, you still have a call against his range? Do you think it's possible that this knowledge about the third player's ace takes away some tens from his value shoving range?

Also, the probable folding of an ace makes ace-ten, the hand most likely to be coolering us here, one third less likely from our point of view, and aces three times less likely.

SALT

yes i do, firmly believe this.

if the villain has a Ten, then given the flop overcall from the  SB who then FOLDs to the turn barrell but we still call despite how strong a range he's betting into on the turn I think our range becomes AK/AQ, T9s, JTs, QTs, KTs, with AT also possible, i think we would DEFO bet AA on the turn because if we have AA we assume SB has a TEN and will bet for value, now add in that the SB hs folded Ax (most likely AK/AQ) and our range calling the turn is now really strong and Tx dominated imo. This is why I cannot believe that he would overjam T9 (or JT) for value on the river, so his most legit value Tx's are KT and QT, and we block one K and can assume the SB has folded one of the other Q/K.

Pretty sure he doesnt think we're iso'ing the fish UTG limo with T8s or worse, in fact prolly not even T9, Id for sure limp T9s behind in this spot, and fold T7s.

I also think the likelihood of him bluffing once he realizes the SB has folded an ACE and we've still called the turn is pretty low, for the same reason.

not saying that i think its a fold, just explaining why I think its a serious FML spot. Although no-one else seems to think its that close which maybe makes me a bit pessimistic lol

I echo what most people have already said.

What would everyone do on the river with:

1) 9c10c

2) Jc10c

id fold 9T and JT, unless you mean in the villains spot?

I fully think he'd check back both those hand on the turn.

why would he check back these hands?

this.

plus, do you and regs know each other? any fun history?

I think he can show up with worse tens as well as turning like QQ/similar into a bluff thinking that you might fold an A ball.

think all hands are possible though because it seems like  [ ] he has a 3bpre range because wants to keep fish in hand, so even QQ-AA he's flatting.

i changed my mind.

i like checking turn, but its only so i can snap river hard.

i still think this is a switcharoo though.

Villain's never overjamming here >200bbs deep with AK on such a dry board. I think JT is close but agree with Dave that T9 is also pretty unlikely, what worse would he expect us to call with for him to overjam for value here ? We can't really have any worse tens than T9 as we wouldn't iso those vs the fish pre.

Think it would be a pretty ridic tough spot if we have JT or T9 here since I don't see him value jamming any worse and he doesn't really have many bluffs in his range. It's pretty speculative to hope that he floated us with hands Pads mentions then decided to 3b bluff on this board which would be pretty spewy vs how strong we look.

KT is the bottom of my "never folding" range, there are so few bluffs in his range and I'd say his value range is JT+,AA. As mentioned, since it seems pretty certain that sb has folded an Ace, it's less likely we are beat here with KT.

BTW, Dave came to me pleading for my expert advice on this hand, so I know his thoughts and also the result  :P

I think its crazy to think he is ever bluffing here

Don't think he's bluffing here very often unless he's from the Mitch Johnson school of trying to rep a full house every other hand.  I think if he had a float/weak hand on flop the small blinds call on the flop would deter him from bluffing.
Your hand is under repped somewhat and if he's decent then he could be easily over betting a good (I.e.jt qt) but not great hand.
Think the sb tank folding has some relevance but not that much really - he's probably folded a good ace which is actually good for you.
I'm calling quickly here with k10 v a competent opponent cos he can be v betting worse, there are very few genuine hands he can have and although rare he can be bluffing some small % of the time.
Having said all that I assume you called and he had aa.

Also why wouldn't you iso the fish with 107s type hands? Seems like a good spot to me deep in position. Wouldn't want to over limp for a number of reasons not least you want to get the decent players to fold and get hu with fishy.

because three v good players behind me would just call joke wide, and ultimately I will end up in a 5way pot and chk folding a very high % of the time, T7/T8s id just look to get to the flop as efficiently and cheaply as possible with the fish involved, most likely by limping behind the fish and calling a $120 btn iso after the fish calls and chk folding the flop anyways lol, but I dont feel like I need the initiative that badly in this spot with those hands.

I reckon the villain in this hand fully thought it possible id hve T8 or T7, and I wouldnt be able to stop myself ISO'ing T9s :P

Def iso-ing t7 this deep with fish utg. If others come along it's fine, fish adds enough value. It's a race to stack him, limping 7way is not gona allow this very much. As to hand u can maybe thunk of hero folding if the sb and mp were reversed, as played ur kt is way under repped, so u set the pot up for him to bluff/value own himself and then question it when it materialises. The sb tinebank fold helps u, aa and at are now super tough to have. Like said he can value worse and IMO has a bluff range so snap, pay, punch a wall - or at least that's my routine

if we limp behind 200bb effective what is a good regs iso range in eversiones opinión?

Pretty wide i feel since our hand looks like dead money and the fish will likely still just flat oop.

results pls

remember we aren't folding every and everyone knows this.

ty for everyones input, I think I was just like FML when he bet the turn, prolly being a touch over paranoid.