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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: cambridgealex on January 02, 2012, 04:43:07 PM



Title: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 02, 2012, 04:43:07 PM
Villain is 26/12/2.6 over 1.8k hands. The only note I have is "peeled a 18bb 4b IP with A2dd 90bbs deep"

Preflop: Hero is CO with    Td Th
1 fold, rmf13 raises to $5.00, Hero raises to $15.00, 3 folds, rmf13 calls $15.00
 
Flop: ($38.00)    Kh 3h 4d  (2 players)
rmf13 checks, Hero checks
 
Turn: ($38.00)   Jc    (2 players)
rmf13 checks, Hero checks
 
River: ($38.00)    Ts    (2 players)
rmf13 bets $33.00, Hero raises to $79.00, rmf13 raises to $150.00, Hero?

80 more to call, pot is 265. anything but AQ?


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: George2Loose on January 02, 2012, 04:46:32 PM
This another call for future info spot?


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: rfgqqabc on January 02, 2012, 05:17:37 PM
Is he all in? If he peeled a 3b that light he could easily have a 2pair, but its got to be a fold when he does this on the river.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: david3103 on January 02, 2012, 05:49:14 PM
Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?

As played it does look very like AQ, but that plus JJ seem to be the only hands that beat you...

Expensive info though if wrong...


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Rupert on January 02, 2012, 05:50:29 PM
3 bet pre is pretty awful, r fold river is good he's a nittttttt


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 02, 2012, 06:42:14 PM
Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?


So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: david3103 on January 02, 2012, 06:50:17 PM
Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?


So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.


But now we're in this FML spot on the river and we're thinking of folding and it's cost more than the $20/25 c-bet...

Sigh, I know nowt


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: jakally on January 02, 2012, 07:05:51 PM
Your line looks so much like it could be AQ, therefore if he's decent it's unlikely he's doing this with air.
I guess then you are hoping he's overplayed 2 pair, but it doesn't seem likely.

It's probably a fold, but I end up sigh-calling these spots more often than not.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: SuuPRlim on January 02, 2012, 07:12:53 PM
Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?


So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.


there is nothing wrong with betting for "protection" I know it's an old school theory us young'uns laugh at but protecting our equity and denying our villain his are both under-rated - we don't have to be betting to make better hands fold or worse hands call 100% of the time, when can just bet because we don't want to have to turn the best hand into a bluff catcher vs hands with some equity all the time

Also we would 100% bet a Khigh board with air so it's a good spot to de-polarise our c-bets, agree for sure we should check a decent amount as well so we have some strong hands on the turn after we've checked the flop.

As played I'd hate life and click the call btn.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Skippy on January 02, 2012, 07:14:35 PM
Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?


So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.


Surely not? I'm c-betting for the following reasons:

1) If someone calls my 3-bet out of position, I'm c-betting 100%. I want to punish out of position c-betters. I'm always c-betting unless the flop is something really unpleasant like  Ad Jd Ks
2) Here you need to protect your hand. Don't give free cards to hands that might beat you. There is very likely going to be more cards above a 10 before showdown, and that's going to suck. What are you going to do when he leads at this turn? You're going to need to get the cape out. You've built a reasonable pot pre, and you now have a mediocre hand. Take it down now, put the chips in your stack, next hand please.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Bully87 on January 02, 2012, 07:15:01 PM
Interesting to see what he actually had. Such a small 4b is never a bluff but could still easily have worse.

Wouldn't 3b pre, post is fine, if I raised the river for value then I don't tend to fold to such a small raise but I'm not a pro.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Skippy on January 02, 2012, 07:15:24 PM
Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?


So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.


Surely not? I'm c-betting for the following reasons:

1) If someone calls my 3-bet out of position, I'm c-betting 100%. I want to punish out of position c-betters. I'm always c-betting unless the flop is something really unpleasant like  Ad Jd Ks
2) Here you need to protect your hand. Don't give free cards to hands that might beat you. There is very likely going to be more cards above a 10 before showdown, and that's going to suck. What are you going to do when he leads at this turn? You're going to need to get the cape out. You've built a reasonable pot pre, and you now have a mediocre hand. Take it down now, put the chips in your stack, next hand please.

I wrote this before lildave agreed with me, honest.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: rbc_mike on January 02, 2012, 07:21:03 PM
Replies were written before this, so just wanted to add some more to the discussion.

Are you ever checking back AK, AA, KK, Ax heart combos,  5h 6h back on the flop for balance in this spot? Seems like checking back makes our hand look like exactly what is it, like 55-QQ.  Would you say over 1.8k hands you have a balanced checking back range against this villain on this type of dry board?  Obvs understand your reasons for checking, but I feel we can still get value from his pocket pairs, ace-high oop floats (not much of his range imo), a4ss, a3ss if we c-bet flop, and as was already mentioned we would always barrel this flop with air.

On turn, when we check back again what does our hand look like now? very much pocket pairs, hands that we want to get to showdown cheaply with. think we are always betting jj here, and all of those AK, AA, KK, Ax heart combos that we could have perceivably checked back on the flop with, as we want to get value from our hand/our hand is underrepped so he may peel lighter oop.

So now when we raise this river, given that we didn't bet either flop or turn, what does our hand look like? Imo we can never really have aa, kk, jj, ak, kq, kj kind of hands given the turn and flop action. We can have qq, tt, 99, 88 and lower pocket pairs. Villain bets river, what range do we put him on? Can be value betting any king from his perspective if he puts us on qq-55/66, can have aq obvs, could have jt but hard to have that with 3 tens used up. villain having jj is possible.

If our hands look like qq-66, and we think he is v-betting thinly i.e. any king, then theoretically we are not raising the river for value with a range of 55-qq. we would be identifying the villain's perceived value range and trying to specifically get him off a king with a bluff raise. if we are taking this line, he is not going to bet-3bet knowing this, he would just call as there is no value in trying to get a spazzout 4bet with stacks this shallow now, plus with no fe he can't turn his hand into a bluff really.

So he never has a king on the river, obvs. jj is never folding after the action on flop and turn, and probs bet-3betting as you hardly ever have kk and can have tt, kt etc.  aq is the nuts, so villain is obvs always bet-3betting that.

In conclusion, his hand can NEVER be a bluff imo, and we are sigh folding the river.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 02, 2012, 07:37:01 PM
hmm ok not checking back 100% of the time, but over 50% i'd say.

He had AQ of course. Should probably fold.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: rbc_mike on January 03, 2012, 12:09:57 AM
Quote
3 bet pre is pretty awful

why is 3betting TT bad in this spot?


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 03, 2012, 12:25:31 AM
Quote
3 bet pre is pretty awful

why is 3betting TT bad in this spot?

probs cos a nits opened utg


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: rbc_mike on January 03, 2012, 12:28:50 AM
Utg+1 isn't it? Do you think that makes much of a difference?


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 03, 2012, 12:56:13 AM
Utg+1 isn't it? Do you think that makes much of a difference?

oh wait i thought this was a different hand.

villain is utg+1 yr right and he;s not a nit at all. can't see what's wrong with 3betting really.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: skolsuper on January 03, 2012, 01:39:53 AM
Utg+1 isn't it? Do you think that makes much of a difference?

oh wait i thought this was a different hand.

villain is utg+1 yr right and he;s not a nit at all. can't see what's wrong with 3betting really.

you fold out everything worse, nothing better, and you ought to have a very good reason to 3bet when calling is eminently profitable.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: muckthenuts on January 03, 2012, 01:42:59 AM
Utg+1 isn't it? Do you think that makes much of a difference?

oh wait i thought this was a different hand.

villain is utg+1 yr right and he;s not a nit at all. can't see what's wrong with 3betting really.

Solid players will fold most hands < TT to a 3bet and if we aren't 5bet getting it in vs this guy then flatting > raising.

I'd bet flop, with the amount you've played with this guy you've got to make sure you're quite balanced here. You should bet basically your entire range including all your light 3bets through to the nizzles.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: TheFallen on January 03, 2012, 06:45:30 AM
given its utg vs utg+1 and you dindn't say that hes a maniac (or he views you as one), I think the river is a call. Except for the odd stubborn AK, i'm not sure what he'd call the raise with and you're pretty much at/just below the bottom of you range to raise given the action.

once he re-raised i'd be far too tilted to fold :-D


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: SuuPRlim on January 03, 2012, 12:03:37 PM
once he re-raised i'd be far too tilted to fold :-D


:D yup. summed it up imp


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Gazza on January 03, 2012, 12:41:11 PM
Utg+1 isn't it? Do you think that makes much of a difference?

oh wait i thought this was a different hand.

villain is utg+1 yr right and he;s not a nit at all. can't see what's wrong with 3betting really.

you fold out everything worse, nothing better, and you ought to have a very good reason to 3bet when calling is eminently profitable.

Not saying I would 3bet 100% of the time in this spot, but there's definitely reason to do so.  He peeled a 4b with A2s being the major reason. He's obviously a weak player that you can isolate and play in position and you're very unlikely to get 4 bet bluffed. You're not folding out 99, 88, AQ, KQs, AJs, KJs and judging by the note quite a few other suited combos.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 03, 2012, 12:43:12 PM
his peel of A2suited was actually alright vs me in that spot iirc.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Gazza on January 03, 2012, 01:17:34 PM
his peel of A2suited was actually alright vs me in that spot iirc.

With 90bb? Genuinely curious as to the spot, as flatting 4bets is not something I do often but I do know there are cases for it.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 03, 2012, 01:22:42 PM
his peel of A2suited was actually alright vs me in that spot iirc.

With 90bb? Genuinely curious as to the spot, as flatting 4bets is not something I do often but I do know there are cases for it.

think i opened MP $6 he 3b btn to $14, I 4b to $31, I flatted ip with $160 behind. probably alright, prefer shoving ldo, perfect hand to do it with


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: SuuPRlim on January 03, 2012, 03:01:29 PM
his peel of A2suited was actually alright vs me in that spot iirc.

With 90bb? Genuinely curious as to the spot, as flatting 4bets is not something I do often but I do know there are cases for it.

think i opened MP $6 he 3b btn to $14, I 4b to $31, I flatted ip with $160 behind. probably alright, prefer shoving ldo, perfect hand to do it with


 Ac Ahrt,  Kh Kc,  not better hands :D


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: SuuPRlim on January 03, 2012, 03:03:01 PM
also that peel sounds awful, Ad 2d? he;s rolling his face on the keys there imo fold>shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>call can't see it being remotely close


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Gazza on January 03, 2012, 03:09:18 PM
also that peel sounds awful, Ad 2d? he;s rolling his face on the keys there imo fold>shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>call can't see it being remotely close

that was my thinking.


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: cambridgealex on January 03, 2012, 04:08:49 PM
also that peel sounds awful, Ad 2d? he;s rolling his face on the keys there imo fold>shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>call can't see it being remotely close

that was my thinking.

hah yr probably right. though vs me shove>call>fold lol


Title: Re: FML river spot with set
Post by: Honeybadger on January 04, 2012, 10:57:23 AM
3betting preflop would be a definite adjustment, and you should usually be flatting. I would prefer to have a better read than that one note before I adjusted. However, given the exact content of the note I would be at least a little tempted to 3bet (although I think it would still be 'wrong').

Flop check back is whatever... I would usually bet half pot or so, but it is no big deal if you want to maintain a polarised cbetting range here.

River is obviously a completely horrible spot. In practice I always call here... but I always get shown AQ. When I am playing my absolute A-game then I make the fold... and of course that's the one time in a thousand that my opponent is bluffing!