blonde poker forum

Hope my team prove me wrong but think Blackburn at 5-1 with VC is a really good price at the weekend, no Tiote or Ba and Cabaye is looking doubtful atm. No idea how we're gonna score goals for the next month unless we bring in a striker (which won't be happening).

Wrexham unbeaten in 15 or so, we have 10 players out, and 5 youth teamers in squad, 2 or 3 should be starting.

Not sure what odds are but might be worth have a DNB on Wrexham considering they have the best defensive record in all 5 leagues.

Almost certain Norwich will play a considerably weakened team at home to Burnley. We have a truly awful record in the cups in recent years, we lost 4-0 to MK Dons at home in the league cup this year and were knocked out by Orient last year at home in the fa cup!

Thats a 165-1 treble so far, someone give me another  :D

Pile into Leicester to win at Forest.

I was right about Cardiff beating us last week at home and with the foxes bringing 8000 fans, which is more than we've sold as we don't give a shit, that's my bet of the day.

Wigan. Martinez said his players are tired so will make changes but are a prem team ever that big against a L2 team?

lol at everyone saying their teams gonna dip.


               

Watford to give us a stuffing 3 or 4-0

Ladbrokes have a special offer for todays games if anyone is backing underdogs. If your team draws, you get same bet same odds on the replay up to 50 notes

FA cup selections

Leiceseter to beat forest           3 - 4  draw no bet   draw = no bet = non runner
Man City   to beat Utd              4 - 7 draw no bet    (think this is massive value for a big lump single bet on Sunday )
Hull to beat Ipswich                  4 -5  outright   won
Coventry to beat Southampton  100 -30 outright  lost
Stoke  to beat gillingham           4 -6        outright   won
try 10 x  trebles
     5  x four fold
     1 x  five fold

woah, 4/7 city to bean man utd?? either im completely out of touch or this is hugely overpriced. Don't think id even bet them at anything under evs

my bad, missed the DNB thing :)

O hai der Hatem.

Thierry scoring made me feel warm inside.

It made my skin crawl, Yes I'm Irish and I am holding a grudge.

like bolton to beat swansea   4 - 5 draw no bet      won

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/bolton-v-swansea/draw-no-bet

blackpool to beat sheff weds  19 -20   lost

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/blackpool-v-sheffield-wednesday/winner

Derby to beat Stoke  5 -2  lost

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/derby-v-stoke/winner

I am on Brighton at 3.5/1 to beat Newcastle at home.  surely great value?!

think thats a fair enough price Greg as shorter now...be good to see what team Newcastle put out for their 700 mile round trip

Good Luck Mate   :)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/brighton-v-newcastle/winner

Any prices on JT and AntonF shaking hands before the game?

Im sure JT is desperate for Anton to shake hands with him...Id love to be on no hand shake  (at the right price of course)   :)

Think Brighton's recent upswing in form is a bit of variance.

Don't think they are playing particularly well, CMS hasn't scored in ages and hasn't really looked in any sort of nick. Injuries still a factor too. Noone probably out, Dicker def out. LuaLua doubtful.

Defending well though, only 3 conceded in the last 5 games and with Newcastle still without Demba Ba I think the unders looks big at above 4/5

I'd be snapping even money

you can have evens on them handshaking with me   :)   but im sure you want the opposite

man u draw no bet 1.9 ?

1.9 too short......23 -20 avaliable

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/liverpool-v-man-utd/draw-no-bet

yeah that was early...took 2.1

took wba overs too

wp

wide open isn't it?

If you were to get Chels v Liverpool or Spurs for example its wide open for a Championship team to final at a big price eg Birmingham?

No need to thank me :-)

Also. Backed Lollerpool today so 2 from 2 this weekend so far.

I've just seen the penalty in the Chelsea game, man alive they might as well just roll a dice and save everyone the time.

Thoughts on Arsenal v Villa? Guess we need to wait for team news but villa look HUGE on Betfair and arse very short!

fraser, no offence mate, but you could be the worst punter blonde has ever seen

Surprised at your comments.... as I thought you were a bit more savvy.

My selections are in profit on my Premier League  thread so maybe it would help to read its results first before making inaccurate comments, unless of course you just felt like making a random insult .

Good Luck

Your selections come across as uninformed, which, combined with some of your other betting-related posts makes me think that you know a lot less than you seem to think and claim you do. Would be more interesting if you were beating Asia with your bets, do you have a record of those?

lol, the guy makes some bets that don't win this weekend and he is no good, you do seem very knowledgeable re gambling as you do post on some of the threads. It would be nice if you actually contributed to the thread instead of trying to pick everyone else apart.

No pressure, if you feel like joining in, it would be far better than just appearing like Mr Benns mate to take a pop now and again.

Phil ...some people have opinions, some just wish to challenge others, as they have nothing significant to say other than rant on about EV as if its the only word known to man kind.

To be honest I have no wish to engage with people that breed negativity .

Peace and Good Karma is a nicer place to be.

rofl, just joking/ results orientated based on the start to the thread.

I know mate, wasn't aimed at you at all.

Just tilts me to see someone who doesn't seem to be very good at this (which obviously fine in of itself!) offering advice to people as if he is good. Not being results orientated either, I'd be massively odds on that looking at his record vs Asia, it would be down.

But that is interaction mate, its what forums do. People also came on and gave some fancies that went well. Its about sharing what you fancy and cheering each others selections on and a bit of gloating and leg pulling, Keith and Greg put up a couple of winners which was nice, tho you chose not to interact at that point but did when you wanted to give out some stick.

The bit about Asian markets is irrelevant as not everyone will be poring over SBO all day to track the markets that thoroughly, it sounds like you have a really good record playing in that market, or using that market's fluidity to make it pay.

It would be great to hear about that rather than this/that guy isn't very good.

board is titled "betting tips and sport discussion" as long as your posts come under that broad category then great - whether they win or not or whether someone else values them or not. - its all fair game as long as it sparks a discussion.

Two mind about this - on the one hand I think this is a really great board and it is nice that there are people of all levels here.  A handful (Keith, Brent, Dubai etc) if they posted something I would almost instantly and blindly bet it.  I respect their judgement and ability and think it is an honour to be able to interact with them.  Others are clearly competent with good ideas but maybe need a bit of work on other areas like bankroll management, number of bets, concepts of value etc.  That is fine.  We all start somewhere and so many seem willing to learn.  I share bobbys slight frsutration that adn doesn't really share his own knowledge or tips but he is clearly very knowledgable and when he does post about specific events and games his posts are amongst the best you will read online.  Go and read his comments on Claypoles top prem scorer thread and you will see that.  Guess what i am taking a long time to say is I kind of agree it would be great if more of your posts were positive (and numerous) because when they are they are superb and when they are knocking someone they don't add much.

I cannot see the harm in giving out "free info".

I will already had what I want on before I post it (it's bobby's speciality to post good info without backing it first  ;D) and if putting it on here helps even one person nick a few quid, then that's great - we are after all trying to do the same thing, win money from the vermin bookmakers (apologies bookiebasher if you are reading this!).

Also, by posting a selection, someone might make a good argument why it's not a good bet which I have missed in my analysis. This could give me the opportunity to get out of my bet if I so choose.

This is a community where information is given and passed on. If I'm not giving my opinion on various events I'd feel a bit of a fraud just sucking up the good info found on here and not giving anything back. That's why I'm slightly critical of boldie. I think he is using this board for his own ends and he doesn't give back enough.

I choose whose posts to take notice of and whose to ignore.

I haven't read enough of Fraser's posts/opinions to decide if I want to follow his selections or not, but at the very least he is contributing and sparking debate. That has got to be a good thing.

Yeah I understand that if you are taking a systematic approach and posting may give that away then you would not want to do that but I am sure almost none of us post every bet we have.  On some days I bet literally 20 horses and have some sources i have said i wouldn't pass on to anyone so I respect that but I am also keen to put as something back into blonde because I get so much out of it.  One thing I have found in this game is you have to constantly evolve to keep ahead and the best way to do this is to talk to other punters and share ideas and you can't really do that if you aren't willing to open up.

+1 to the last two posts. Massive heros


Even though I have stopped/severley cut down my gambling this year, this is still one of my fav boards. Love seeing things from the perspective of the full time punters.

Fraser is a full on class act. Even though i've never followed his selections i don't think i could display close to the amount of poise he shows in responses to some of the posts aimed at him.

If 10,000 or more punters were reading this forum I would agree with you.

Girgy having a tenner on is hardly going to affect the market, is it?

fyp

if that's your attitude why would you criticise someone giving what you consider to be bad advice? this is surely good for you if people follow it

This

I am a typical mug punter but I love reading the stuff from the guys who really know what they're talking about.

I don't really bet much at present but it's still nice to follow everything and see when someone has had a touch!!

I think that dig was tongue in cheek Keith and I assume you mean the tip for TIkay bet.

I wanted 6 but could only get just over 350 and that was asking others to get me on. I was hanging on as long as I could but when the US firm went up 1/2 then I knew it wouldn't last. If I am guilty of anything then it is not sorting out more outs to get more on these things myself. Tho if  my biggest mistake this week is betting something that is wrong but not getting all I wanted on and then accepting that what I have got is all I will get, then posting it for someone else to get some, then I will have had a good week.

:-)

ADN,

I read the top scorer market that ReD suggested and your contribution was really interesting, how would you have felt if my only post on that thread was to say your view had proven to be wrong and that you didn't know as much as you think you do. Which is what you did to someone earlier in this thread?

I do see your point about not giving too much away in posts, I have given a few people the winner in one market for the last three years and in a great spot to bet the winner this year too. The reason I pass it on to them via PM is that I don't want to compromise the person giving me the info but those guys showed an interest and contributed to the original discussion on that event four years ago. I am more than happy that I can pass on the info each year after I am on.

You don't have to give away the crown jewels but when you are posting jibes and 'superior' looking posts then it's not necessary. Redarmi took the time to explain the value of each way betting in the TIkay thread that is just really a given to many people but he did it in a clear none superior way and there will be great value in that post to some people that read it.

He isn't giving anything away but contributed a very good technical point that might help others, that surely is the spirit of posting on these threads isn't it?
 







 

what a great post

Yes, plus 1 from me too.

Let's take the NFL thread for example. If I + the people I work with had 365/Stan/Sky accounts we could round up, hammer oft-repeated bad prices every week and it's gg that market pretty soon. If someone else posts on here 'here's this niche bet/I've found this bookmaker making this error' and I or someone else who can bet a lot jumps on it, that niche or consistent error may not last.


I would have disagreed probably but also had a look at what I was doing and find where I was possibly wrong. I'm perfectly happy to take criticism, constructive or otherwise - as all criticism in this field IS constructive in a sense. I understand though that others may not feel that way though, hence why I'll be toning it down.

Well obviously don't publicise a rick that bookmakers make regularly if you can get on!

I wouldn't and I'd be surprised if anyone here would.

It is possible that the odds compilers realised the price was wrong.

Sure, but it obv happens a lot quicker if more people are hammering the price week on week! That downside means there needs to be enough upside to post tips regularly, which there isn't (to me anyway, others like you feel differently).

I wouldn't put up something like the Sanchez bet unless it was only available with a bookmaker I had no chance of getting on with.

Then I might post it and ask some people to put some bets for me.

I am on Ochocinco to be MVP of the Superbowl at 125/1. I think it's a great bet. I don't want any more on so I've shared that on the Tips for Tikay thread.

I think there is a big difference between the situation you are discussing which is a fairly esoteric market that repeats itself week in week out and a tip for a horse or football team.  Can understand you argument with regards to that bet and a decent sized bet every week appearing on it is going to tip a compiler off but the first bet would probably do that.  It says something about the volume 365 get that the same price appeared week after week for a while (well that and the fact almost nobody can get a bet with them!!).  Agree with Keith about posting a bet you can't get on too.  I tipped up the no TD scorer in 2nd half of a live NFL @ 66/1 and couldn't get a penny on myself.  you could argue I was naive to do so and should have tried to get myself in a position to get on the next week but I always know that is a longshot and like to punish the firms I can't get on with long after they shut my account.  It gives me great pleasure ;-)

I don't think multiple people getting on Sanchez even twigged them to the fact he was wrongly priced.

Stan's kept him at 50/1 every week til he finally got first TD then they realised after getting stung (just as they would wether 1 or 10 people were on).  Bet365 had him 33/1 first and 7/1 anytime, he hit the anytime in week 16, so they changed that to 6/4 or something the next week, but kept the 33/1 out there for first!

I think they only notice anything when they get burned on it.

Cheers Milligan....I dont know you but nice comments regardless sir.

Over the years Ive had my fair share of run ins and arguments  ( mainly with the ex wife ) and very quickly realised confrontation does not serve anybody well, especially if  involved in the punting & poker industry where losing your head can result in losing your money.I much prefer a life where there is peace and harmony with your fellow man which can ultimately result in good karma and a state of mind ready to deal with life's challenges ,hence the reason I try not to get involved if people make comments  that can be rude or confrontational etc . Im all for healthy debate and differences of opinion, its just that sometimes people can get a bit over zealous or maybe struggle to express themselves correctly which can result in a negativity both in forums or every day life . I dont generally hold grudges and would try to reason with somebody, if I considered them to have a rational thought process, but we all know this is sometimes not possible so its best to stay clear. I think its fair to say in life there are humans that just take without giving much back to society such as  people (not all ) that exploit the welfare system, but then again there are people struggling to make ends meet that will give their last pound to help others.I think parallels can be drawn on Blonde where most members will  happily offer information,advice , help and even money( we all know who these  are ) for the good of "the greater cause" whereas others  lurk in the shadows and contribute very little by the way of positive content. Its quite ironic that the people who put the least in for some reason seem to demand the most out but hey thats their perogative .As with every day life with  good conversation and a bit of tolerance any problems can usually be ironed out .As regards my posts/tips on Blonde , these are just my viewpoint to which people can folllow me or not and of course are entitled to their opinion (that en bodies the very nature of forums ).I study football (and a few other sports markets) very closely and have done so for many years so would consider myself quite knowlegable and in the main profitable but with ups and downs of any punter. I have never considered myself to be "very good " nor do I wish to take on the whole of Asia  , I merely bet sometimes  using The Asian handicap system when the price is right. My selections on here in the main mirror my actual bets so it was surprising to read the negative comments considering my selections show profit , but on the plus side its opened up a great thread so its all good as far as Im concerned with no hard feelings.

Good Luck to Everybody & May the " Healthy " Debate Continue.

Fraser 
 
 
 

This is an interesting debate. I have a lot of respect for the posters on here and  I'm trying to learn and improve my knowledge.

In tonight's football I like Sheff Wed DNB at 6/4.

They play at MK Dons who are a good passing side but it seems they are missing 3 or 4 players - particularly in defence.

Adam Smith (apparently their best defender) has been recalled by Spurs, Doumbe is suspended, Potter is ill and McKenzie is unlikely to start due to injury.

Wednesday rested their 8 best plays in the Cup at Blackpool on Saturday and have a powerful, aggressive team these days.

I'd appreciate your thoughts - Sheff Wed DNB 6/4 value?

I know this isn't much of an answer mate ( I'm a Sheff Utd fan so prob wouldn't be the best analysis you could get) but it looks OK to me. Owls are now much better away from home than their actual record suggests as they were pretty poor at the start of the season. As you say team news is against the Dons too. It looks OK + to me but that's about it.

cheers

I'd appreciate your thoughts - Sheff Wed DNB 6/4 value?

Ambivalent Im afraid...Even though they are my team Im not informed enough on that league to comment .

 
 
 

Southampton look short to me tonight. Anyone got a view on that game?

Sharp & Lambert (returning) factor I suppose.

They were poor last time at home tho v Lei, but yeah short.

Swansea 4-1 at the weekend at home to Chelsea?

Interested?

Yes I do wonder if Sharp will start as that will be quite a turnaround for him in the space of a day. Lambert obv a big plus but the price does look short

Given Cardiff are in hood form and at full strength

as you know Phil...ex sheff utd and doncaster striker billy Sharp  has gone to Southampton  but I dont see a bet in that game as Cardiff can put up a stiff resistance...what I do like is Hull @8 -13 at home  against donny who are going to be struggling without sharp up front .

Get on early Rich, they play tonight:-), I actually thought Chelsea were ok there tho would want to see the teams first.

that match is tonight Rich and there has been money for Swansea now a best chance 7-2 on betfair but generally 3 -1...a well orgnised team so they have a chance

Swansea overbacked at home now IMO  standard market overreaction to an easy home run and a handful of good performances- would be a layer of them at 7-2, and will accommodate any blondes that want on

Got a good link for a lot of live sport including all premier league games on the net...all free with no catch

just click the game you want and minimise the crap and wait for it to buffer /load the page

http://www.firstrow.tv/

Let me know what you think

Yeah that's one most people use- sometimes have to try a few links per match to find best one

I left the Chelsea game, would have preferred to see Cahill in for Terry.

Laid Southampton very small.

Chuckles in the Everton City game with the guy handcuffing himself to the goal