FA Cup Betting

[The Camel]

The issue is that by posting you help others evolve as well. I think this 'us vs them' (vs books) is misguided. It's more 'us vs them vs each other.' By giving info to someone, an angle or market is likely to become less profitable in future.

Also, I do talk more openly about my bets to other punters, but in private. Yes, it is selfish, but there is more to gain and less to lose that way, as opposed to posting tips on a public message board for everyone to see. That is not say that the posts bere are worthless, but the signal noise ratio is not 100%!

If 10,000 or more punters were reading this forum I would agree with you.

Girgy having a tenner on is hardly going to affect the market, is it?

[Girgy85]

The issue is that by posting you help others evolve as well. I think this 'us vs them' (vs books) is misguided. It's more 'us vs them vs each other.' By giving info to someone, an angle or market is likely to become less profitable in future.

Also, I do talk more openly about my bets to other punters, but in private. Yes, it is selfish, but there is more to gain and less to lose that way, as opposed to posting tips on a public message board for everyone to see. That is not say that the posts bere are worthless, but the signal noise ratio is not 100%!

If 10,000 or more punters were reading this forum I would agree with you.

Girgy having a tonner on is hardly going to affect the market, is it?

fyp

[gatso]

The issue is that by posting you help others evolve as well. I think this 'us vs them' (vs books) is misguided. It's more 'us vs them vs each other.' By giving info to someone, an angle or market is likely to become less profitable in future.

if that's your attitude why would you criticise someone giving what you consider to be bad advice? this is surely good for you if people follow it

[Marky147]

+1 to the last two posts. Massive heros


Even though I have stopped/severley cut down my gambling this year, this is still one of my fav boards. Love seeing things from the perspective of the full time punters.

Fraser is a full on class act. Even though i've never followed his selections i don't think i could display close to the amount of poise he shows in responses to some of the posts aimed at him.

This

I am a typical mug punter but I love reading the stuff from the guys who really know what they're talking about.

I don't really bet much at present but it's still nice to follow everything and see when someone has had a touch!!

[bobby1]

I think that dig was tongue in cheek Keith and I assume you mean the tip for TIkay bet.

I wanted 6 but could only get just over 350 and that was asking others to get me on. I was hanging on as long as I could but when the US firm went up 1/2 then I knew it wouldn't last. If I am guilty of anything then it is not sorting out more outs to get more on these things myself. Tho if  my biggest mistake this week is betting something that is wrong but not getting all I wanted on and then accepting that what I have got is all I will get, then posting it for someone else to get some, then I will have had a good week.

:-)

ADN,

I read the top scorer market that ReD suggested and your contribution was really interesting, how would you have felt if my only post on that thread was to say your view had proven to be wrong and that you didn't know as much as you think you do. Which is what you did to someone earlier in this thread?

I do see your point about not giving too much away in posts, I have given a few people the winner in one market for the last three years and in a great spot to bet the winner this year too. The reason I pass it on to them via PM is that I don't want to compromise the person giving me the info but those guys showed an interest and contributed to the original discussion on that event four years ago. I am more than happy that I can pass on the info each year after I am on.

You don't have to give away the crown jewels but when you are posting jibes and 'superior' looking posts then it's not necessary. Redarmi took the time to explain the value of each way betting in the TIkay thread that is just really a given to many people but he did it in a clear none superior way and there will be great value in that post to some people that read it.

He isn't giving anything away but contributed a very good technical point that might help others, that surely is the spirit of posting on these threads isn't it?
 







 

[Junior Senior]

Right, I'll attempt to be less critical in future, fair enough.

As for 'contributing more'? Well, tbf, there are plenty of reasons not to contribute more free info!

I cannot see the harm in giving out "free info".

I will already had what I want on before I post it (it's bobby's speciality to post good info without backing it first  ) and if putting it on here helps even one person nick a few quid, then that's great - we are after all trying to do the same thing, win money from the vermin bookmakers (apologies bookiebasher if you are reading this!).

Also, by posting a selection, someone might make a good argument why it's not a good bet which I have missed in my analysis. This could give me the opportunity to get out of my bet if I so choose.

This is a community where information is given and passed on. If I'm not giving my opinion on various events I'd feel a bit of a fraud just sucking up the good info found on here and not giving anything back. That's why I'm slightly critical of boldie. I think he is using this board for his own ends and he doesn't give back enough.

I choose whose posts to take notice of and whose to ignore.

I haven't read enough of Fraser's posts/opinions to decide if I want to follow his selections or not, but at the very least he is contributing and sparking debate. That has got to be a good thing.

what a great post

[bobby1]

Yes, plus 1 from me too.

[adnmdv]

The issue is that by posting you help others evolve as well. I think this 'us vs them' (vs books) is misguided. It's more 'us vs them vs each other.' By giving info to someone, an angle or market is likely to become less profitable in future.

Also, I do talk more openly about my bets to other punters, but in private. Yes, it is selfish, but there is more to gain and less to lose that way, as opposed to posting tips on a public message board for everyone to see. That is not say that the posts bere are worthless, but the signal noise ratio is not 100%!

If 10,000 or more punters were reading this forum I would agree with you.

Girgy having a tenner on is hardly going to affect the market, is it?

Let's take the NFL thread for example. If I + the people I work with had 365/Stan/Sky accounts we could round up, hammer oft-repeated bad prices every week and it's gg that market pretty soon. If someone else posts on here 'here's this niche bet/I've found this bookmaker making this error' and I or someone else who can bet a lot jumps on it, that niche or consistent error may not last.

I read the top scorer market that ReD suggested and your contribution was really interesting, how would you have felt if my only post on that thread was to say your view had proven to be wrong and that you didn't know as much as you think you do. Which is what you did to someone earlier in this thread?

I would have disagreed probably but also had a look at what I was doing and find where I was possibly wrong. I'm perfectly happy to take criticism, constructive or otherwise - as all criticism in this field IS constructive in a sense. I understand though that others may not feel that way though, hence why I'll be toning it down.

[The Camel]

The issue is that by posting you help others evolve as well. I think this 'us vs them' (vs books) is misguided. It's more 'us vs them vs each other.' By giving info to someone, an angle or market is likely to become less profitable in future.

Also, I do talk more openly about my bets to other punters, but in private. Yes, it is selfish, but there is more to gain and less to lose that way, as opposed to posting tips on a public message board for everyone to see. That is not say that the posts bere are worthless, but the signal noise ratio is not 100%!

If 10,000 or more punters were reading this forum I would agree with you.

Girgy having a tenner on is hardly going to affect the market, is it?

Let's take the NFL thread for example. If I + the people I work with had 365/Stan/Sky accounts we could round up, hammer oft-repeated bad prices every week and it's gg that market pretty soon. If someone else posts on here 'here's this niche bet/I've found this bookmaker making this error' and I or someone else who can bet a lot jumps on it, that niche or consistent error may not last.

I read the top scorer market that ReD suggested and your contribution was really interesting, how would you have felt if my only post on that thread was to say your view had proven to be wrong and that you didn't know as much as you think you do. Which is what you did to someone earlier in this thread?

I would have disagreed probably but also had a look at what I was doing and find where I was possibly wrong. I'm perfectly happy to take criticism, constructive or otherwise - as all criticism in this field IS constructive in a sense. I understand though that others may not feel that way though, hence why I'll be toning it down.

Well obviously don't publicise a rick that bookmakers make regularly if you can get on!

I wouldn't and I'd be surprised if anyone here would.

[The Camel]

I think the guys in the NFL thread were! iirc it was Mark Sanchez being a big bet every week (33/1 should be 20/1 or something). If the limits for NFL @ 365/Stan were worth harming accounts for I'd have been all over that. If I was staking smaller amounts I'd be all over that and the week-on-week bet would be gone! As it happens, I think it DID end up going.

It is possible that the odds compilers realised the price was wrong.

[adnmdv]

Sure, but it obv happens a lot quicker if more people are hammering the price week on week! That downside means there needs to be enough upside to post tips regularly, which there isn't (to me anyway, others like you feel differently).

[The Camel]

Sure, but it obv happens a lot quicker if more people are hammering the price week on week! That downside means there needs to be enough upside to post tips regularly, which there isn't (to me anyway, others like you feel differently).

I wouldn't put up something like the Sanchez bet unless it was only available with a bookmaker I had no chance of getting on with.

Then I might post it and ask some people to put some bets for me.

I am on Ochocinco to be MVP of the Superbowl at 125/1. I think it's a great bet. I don't want any more on so I've shared that on the Tips for Tikay thread.

[redarmi]

I think there is a big difference between the situation you are discussing which is a fairly esoteric market that repeats itself week in week out and a tip for a horse or football team.  Can understand you argument with regards to that bet and a decent sized bet every week appearing on it is going to tip a compiler off but the first bet would probably do that.  It says something about the volume 365 get that the same price appeared week after week for a while (well that and the fact almost nobody can get a bet with them!!).  Agree with Keith about posting a bet you can't get on too.  I tipped up the no TD scorer in 2nd half of a live NFL @ 66/1 and couldn't get a penny on myself.  you could argue I was naive to do so and should have tried to get myself in a position to get on the next week but I always know that is a longshot and like to punish the firms I can't get on with long after they shut my account.  It gives me great pleasure ;-)

[LeKnave]

I don't think multiple people getting on Sanchez even twigged them to the fact he was wrongly priced.

Stan's kept him at 50/1 every week til he finally got first TD then they realised after getting stung (just as they would wether 1 or 10 people were on).  Bet365 had him 33/1 first and 7/1 anytime, he hit the anytime in week 16, so they changed that to 6/4 or something the next week, but kept the 33/1 out there for first!

I think they only notice anything when they get burned on it.

[FUN4FRASER]

+1 to the last two posts. Massive heros


Even though I have stopped/severley cut down my gambling this year, this is still one of my fav boards. Love seeing things from the perspective of the full time punters.

Fraser is a full on class act. Even though i've never followed his selections i don't think i could display close to the amount of poise he shows in responses to some of the posts aimed at him.

Cheers Milligan....I dont know you but nice comments regardless sir.

Over the years Ive had my fair share of run ins and arguments  ( mainly with the ex wife ) and very quickly realised confrontation does not serve anybody well, especially if  involved in the punting & poker industry where losing your head can result in losing your money.I much prefer a life where there is peace and harmony with your fellow man which can ultimately result in good karma and a state of mind ready to deal with life's challenges ,hence the reason I try not to get involved if people make comments  that can be rude or confrontational etc . Im all for healthy debate and differences of opinion, its just that sometimes people can get a bit over zealous or maybe struggle to express themselves correctly which can result in a negativity both in forums or every day life . I dont generally hold grudges and would try to reason with somebody, if I considered them to have a rational thought process, but we all know this is sometimes not possible so its best to stay clear. I think its fair to say in life there are humans that just take without giving much back to society such as  people (not all ) that exploit the welfare system, but then again there are people struggling to make ends meet that will give their last pound to help others.I think parallels can be drawn on Blonde where most members will  happily offer information,advice , help and even money( we all know who these  are ) for the good of "the greater cause" whereas others  lurk in the shadows and contribute very little by the way of positive content. Its quite ironic that the people who put the least in for some reason seem to demand the most out but hey thats their perogative .As with every day life with  good conversation and a bit of tolerance any problems can usually be ironed out .As regards my posts/tips on Blonde , these are just my viewpoint to which people can folllow me or not and of course are entitled to their opinion (that en bodies the very nature of forums ).I study football (and a few other sports markets) very closely and have done so for many years so would consider myself quite knowlegable and in the main profitable but with ups and downs of any punter. I have never considered myself to be "very good " nor do I wish to take on the whole of Asia  , I merely bet sometimes  using The Asian handicap system when the price is right. My selections on here in the main mirror my actual bets so it was surprising to read the negative comments considering my selections show profit , but on the plus side its opened up a great thread so its all good as far as Im concerned with no hard feelings.

Good Luck to Everybody & May the " Healthy " Debate Continue.

Fraser