blonde poker forum

What does everyone fancy today.

A bacon sandwich.

Oooh, +1

As a Wednesday fan it pains me to say it, but Sheff Utd at 11/10 looks a good bet to me.

Everton at 9/4 is my only football bet today.

Cardiff to win at Doncaster
Saints to win at Forest
Fulham to win at Blackburn

All odd against......can't remember prices soz.

aberdeen @ 5/4 with pdypwr and dunf hibs < 2.5 for me

Tighty's post has inspired me to have a bacon sandwich.


Also, controversially, I'm on not many goals in the Spurs Wolves match (with 0-1 covered), and lots of goals in Blackburn Fulham. After realising today that a Spurs win would put them joint top i'm slightly less confident, but we'll see.

For tomorrow I've laid Arsenal away to Swansea at 1.73 (price was like that during the arsenal leeds match), but I still think they are layable at the 1.84 they are now. To me RVP is their only hope and I really like Swansea at home.

Toughest punting card of the season imo.

Small bets on Peterbrough and Burnley the only things I could find.

Toughest punting card of the season imo +1

Been looking at prem for ages and really struggling

Gone for Draw/Spurs in the HT/FT, hoping Wolves can keep 11 men behind the ball for at least 45 mins

v small Sheff utd and Orient for me.

gl all

The highest scoring game in three of the four leagues in England and the highest scoring game in the Scots Prem all featured at least one sending off today ( the refereeing in the Millwall game is reported to be incredibly bad). Another weekend where the teams playing the game were not solely responsible for the results in a lot of games.

To me football is simply a sport that you cannot safely bet good amounts of money on any more, the variables out side of form and team news and head to heads are now just too wide ranging.

Wrexham are 2-1 to beat brighton, who are flying. Our players missing through injury/suspension:

- dicker
- elphick
- greer (captain)
- Painter
- CMS
- Noone
- Lua Lua
- Tarricco
- Hoskins
- Vicente (probably)
- Jake Forster Caskey
- Harley been ill so might be out too

i've preached this on here before but i don't think people care, they love backing the footy!!!

It's also complete rubbish tbf.

based on?

football is simply a sport that you cannot safely bet good amounts of money on any more, the variables outside of form and team news and head to heads are now just too wide ranging.

You disagree with that?

Betting to 100%  doesnt matter if two pigeons are racing. In the long run betting blind u will break level- just run good and u win, run bad and u lose. There are loads worse things to gamble on than betting on any 100% market

Don't really understand where you are coming from on this one Bobby?  In the long run football is very predictable and probably the sport more people make a living betting from than any other (except possibly racing).  Sure you get some strange results but that happens in any sport.  It is basically just variance.

red/Dubai have basically covered it, but it's like saying it's difficult to win at poker because you can't predict which cards are going to come out on the flop. Neither betting, nor poker, is about making accurate predictions.

Hi Dave,


But you can bet almost 100% markets on many sports these days give or take a few % points for multi runner events.If you bet on a cricket match the result will be determined by how the players perform or the weather( which is taken into account in the prices) if a batsmen plays badly he is out, plays well and he scores runs. Same for a bowler to some extent. The umpires very rarely influence the game, in fact the review system takes most of the mistakes out of the game.

In football there are players on the pitch trying to gain an edge thru cheating, be it diving, fouling or other acts of gamesmanship. There are officials that get many decisions in every game wrong. We are betting on something that has so many variables to it that cannot be known pre game. I saw a Swansea player stand on an Arsenal players leg yesterday and he won a penalty for it. Decisions like that don't happen in every game, one game it will be a penalty and another game it will be a free kick the other way.

So in those example you can bet cricket in 100% markets, where very little outside the performance of the players leads to a result or you can bet on football in 100% markets where reffing situations and player conduct are the determining factor in the result a lot of the time.

Just because they are 100% markets doesn't mean they all have the same variables that combine to get a result does it?

Variables =/= unknowns

And as Dubai suggested, stuff like a bad referee decision is variance OR something that can be factored into your pricing. Also, if a variable truly is unknowable, then by definition it can't be incorporated into the price by the layer either, so it's irrelevant.

In a previous life I was one of a team of 6 that did football prices for William Hill ( this 10+ years ago now so I am talking when you printed the coupons on a Monday and had a sweat on all week when the team news started to form because in those days the prices were available in almost 2000 shops and online and a real ball ache to change in the shops)  football had the second highest turnover after racing and was the 2nd biggest winner for the firm, also after racing. Every Saturday afternoon we would have to make a snap call after the results were in as to what % we thought would be attained from that days football business so the higher managers could report to the even higher managers. On a usual looking set of results day we would start the figure off at 20%.

I have no doubt you work at the high end of the football betting market but bookmakers regularly have 30-40% winning days on football, sometimes higher if the results are freakish and sometimes they do their cobblers in but in the long run football is not a profitable sport for a very large % of people that bet on it

sorry to be blunt mate but that is rubbish. Reffing decisions cannot in any way be factored into pre match prices. In fact what you have just said means that neither betors or layers can know what the variables will be in a match, why is that a good event to bet on?

Would you rather bet a three runner cricket match or a three runner football match. One last for 90 mins and has so many different things influencing the outcome, one last for 5 days and usually the team that plays the best wins. It's a no brainer surely?

The only reason that football seems to have more strange results is that goals are rarer than, say, runs in cricket so small-ish events such as a refereeing decision can have a bigger impact on the overall result whereas a single wicket not being given in a cricket match won't, normally, affect the result.  If a factor is not quantifiable then it is a level playing field and doesn't affect your or the bookies ability to win on it so long as there are factors which are predictable ie. form, injuries etc.  Incidentally I have it on fairly good authority that the very best football punters do factor in various stats about referees and use that in their modelling for example they look at how many fouls they give and factor that into likely injury time etc for betting on totals and if a game is likely to have a lot more injury time then the favourite is more likely to win.

'If neither the layers nor backers know, then the layer does not have an informational advantage'

That's the bit you aren't getting mate, all that means is that everyone betting on that game is clueless pre game as to the variables that will occur in the game that affect the result.

That is my whole point, the difference being in most cases a layer will have 2 runners going for them and the punter will have one, that is the main reason the layers can overcome the variables because when you bet a team to win with me for example I have two chances to get the variables on my side , you have one. In some games your team will get them in their favour and you will win.

'The only reason that football seems to have more strange results is that goals are rarer than, say, runs in cricket so small-ish events such as a refereeing decision can have a bigger impact on the overall result'

But Red, that is my exact point.

There was a particularly terrible call in last nights NFL game between Green Bay and the Giants, in the end the Giants overcame that to win the game but the pre game total line was 54. That's a perfect example of a sport that is better to bet on than football. if a team get an unjust TD against them in a game with an expectancy of 54 points it is easier to overcome than an unjust goal in a game with a pre game goal expectancy of 2 and 3/4.

I'd be interested in your answer to this: Do you think that the reason bookies win so much from Correct Score markets is a) the massive overround on said markets or b) because it's difficult to predict a scoreline correctly because of variables? Your argument seems to be along the lines of 'people make bad bets because they cannot predict games well in football' so...

Sorry I didn't see the before posting.

Well the answer is both but the bookies that bet the correct score markets on Betfair to 2% still win in the long run, they just win a lot less, slower. The punters will still bet the same score there as they would with the traditional bookies but they will still lose their money, only slower.

Doesn't the fact that people can win money laying correct scores to 102% prove that it is a very predictable game rather than the inverse?

'Had told myself I wouldn't get drawn in again. Oh well.'

Don't worry about that fella, there is plenty of room for debate without it getting out of hand like it does on some sports thread, we might see it differently but I am still interested in what you are saying.

You have misquoted what I said tho, I said there were too many variables to have good money on (unbetable, not unprofitable), you can still over come the variables in some cases and win money but that doesn't change the fact that football is a sport with multi variables. If you find good value you will win more when they go your way but hand on heart can you honestly say that football is still a game of 22 players playing for 90 minutes and the team that plays the best is the only factor that comes into play in deciding the winner?

No Red,it means that the punters betting those markets still don't realise they are still not getting the right price, they are getting nearer the right price but still not right.

I am close friends with one of the teams that seed those CS, HT FT markets etc on Betfair. They turn over chunks every week on those markets in every major countries leagues, betting the lower leagues in some of them too. They have a database which we used to use in its infancy at Hills that has a record of every score for the last ten years + of every team priced at XX in every league they bet correct scores on x goal expectancy for those games pre kick off.

If you want to know the CS prices of a team that is 5/4 in the Dutch league 1 in a game with an expectancy of say 3.2 they will have it in 5 seconds because the goals expectancy and history of the league is available to them. Same for all leagues, it is so good that they almost sold it to a bookmaker last year. They don't win because it is predictable, they win because they have done the work to find out the exact price of that score in that individual game and let the punters make the mistake of betting those scores at under the price they are likely to happen.

They aren't predicting anything, they are asking others to predict the scores, they are the ones that lose the money.

Apologies for late post on this subject..........I Like this thread and some of the viewpoints ..I think red has basically summed it up .

For example....Lets take a weekends football like when Blackburn beat Man Utd...  Why did it happen ?  Fergies bad selection/tactics ? ,factors such as players injured /rested ,players tired,illness in the camp,key players sulking , under performing , general complacency or the underdog team feeling the opposite and decide its time to play out of their skins.All these reasons can contribute to shock results !   Regardless of the reasons why they lost... this is just variance.

If you havent accounted for the variant factors in your "weekend football bets " then an alternative solution is simple... Channel your energies and opinions into the long term bets such as outright League winners, handicap markets,top goalscorer or relegation..That way variance is "diluted " and the best performing selection should prevail.

Hi Fraser,

You are right.

That is exactly what I have done.Mostly the Prem and Relegation, Champions league markets and some bits in the Championship outright for the exact reason that week by week matches offer too many things that you cannot account for. As Red said somewhere, football is predictable, I disagree with that over a 90 minute game but long term the variance will wear thin.

I also bet long term outright's like the Superbowl too for the same reason along with golf outrights, as even when it goes against you there is still time for it to go for you, that can't happen too often in something that lasts only 90 minutes.

I do have one question for you Fraser, in the early 90's you and I , Sean N and Rory were in the casino next to Roxy's and I lent you a score, can I have it back yet?

;o)

Gosh..thats going back ..Not sure who you are but I can assume ex William Hills Mob  ?

As regards your comments.....If you disagree over 1 match x 90 mins thats kind of understandable...but if you you had 100 matches  x 90 minutes it would reduce variance and as a consequence your selections would be more predictable.... which is what I think red is alluding to

Nice to see you are already betting on long term markets but of course cup matches/tournaments are not long term markets, as they are effectively knocks outs /one offs and are subject to the variance/shock results as discussed above  ( even though there can be group stages and 2 legged affairs )

Good Luck with the punting and if I genuinely owe you a score then no problem   :)

Hi Fraser,

Its Phil Q.

I do think Red and I were talking about different timescales and 100 matches would certainly counteract the 90 minute variance but football takes hours and days to work on if you are updating databases, researching teams and team news,watching games and getting the right prices. It can all be to no avail during the 90 minutes of the actual match because there are now too many ways imo that the outcome of that match can be affected.

I was only kidding about the score too, I saw on the HM database you had a great win in the DTD Monte Carlo and some other good events too, congrats mate.

I ran into Sean a couple of months back after a Blades game, still a fantastic character.

Thanks Phil...you always did like your football bets ...just make sure you dont miss QPR to be relegated ( still ludicrously  7 -4 )  :)

Are you still with Hills or in the industry  ?

My relegation book isn't all that good at the moment so QPR getting relegated will be welcomed by both of us. I actually bet Blackburn at 4/1 with the books last summer so they will help turn something I haven't really traded very well on BF into an OK result.

I work part time for one firm trading golf every other week from home, so still got half a leg in the industry.

will do mate

I lol'd, then disappointed that you where joking.

;o)

just my two pence as i was agreeing with bobby.

I'm talking about betting FT result, trading on events within the game or laying on betty etc is a different animal that the best can profit from. but if you gave me the option to back a rugby team at 1/4 and a footy team at 1/4 i'd back the rugby team forever, big skill supremacy in a lot of sports more consistently results in the expected result.

For people betting volume and with the required amount of skill and knowledge i'm sure they can find enough value to get a small % return from betting FT in soccer but i bet you couldn't find many of them about.

My specific example was with Eso Krals challenge of launching all his winnings into the next bet until he got to X figure and in that he was backing soccer matches besides other things, i said he should avoid football bets for that challenge.

If two odds are the same, the expected win % on the same is both. Am I missing something here?

 it sounds non sensical but i'm sure its true just from experience.

i'll find out for sure based on last years results, comparing footy with rugby union.

This weekend;

On Newcastle, Blackburn and Bolton.... Doubles trebles and singles

Gone for blackberry, qpr and stoke

Got on Chelsea at half time but unless they score in the next 7 minutes it's not going to be a great start!  Thought Newcastle were worth a bet this afternoon and have a Spurs Arsenal double optimistic double for tomorrow.

i struggle to see how stoke are 1/1 at home against brom, we always beat the baggies.

Good luck mate

-1 dnb yeh?

on these in last couple of days

Barnsley to beat Porsmouth 11/8
Millwall DNB against Bolton 11/10
small bet on Blackpool DNB against Everton 11/2

Got on the saints at 1.83 .

Got on Southampton at 13/8 to win by two or more goals, cheers for the tip.

v good, well done


Leicester City. Get the enormously fk in. wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Went to look at championship results, didn't see em and thought what the hell are you on about lol. A tide turning at leicester now?

Just seen prev results, thought they had gone better than that.

lots of talent but all world inconsistent

If we can keep the same manager for longer than half a season and give it time we should be fantastically placed. Odds are we'll not hold our nerve at some point though. Instability has killed us for years

In one off games though, we are a real threat, so a cup run does not surprise me especially

Shipped a 7 teamer for £430. :)

Nice work with Saints adnmdv. Ta

Pretty sure no one cares

excellent work adnmdv wp

Nice call adn and nice write up....more of the same please!!!!!

Whelan FGS @20/1 with fred to add to the stoke bet.

I agree mate, I've lumped all the profits from my Dustin/Watney match play double on at evens.

C'mon the Clarets!

also done this, Come on the Burnley boys!

Looks to be closing about the 1.87 mark. :)

edit: and looks set to lose!

Sigh @ closing about 5% onside and getting decimated.

On RVP (13/2) and Rosicky (20/1) wincasts in the early game with Fred.

Quite like the Rosicky one, gone for that at 48.0 at Betfair.

One time

Backed Arsenal DNB at just below 2/1. Seems big judging by the teams.

It's not the same market

Are you sure?  It says "What will be the correct combination of the player to score the first goal in this match AND the correct match result? The winning selection must have both the correct first goalscorer AND the correct result. "

ah, I had assumed you thought the Betfair one was a Score+Win double (as it is at Fred) rather than the FGS+Win Double!

Ah ok, didn't realise Fred was score anytime.

On the gooners here @ 3.9,  Also Walcott fgs @ 14.0

ffs



[13:15:39] The Claimer: iverpool liverpool liverpool
[13:15:55] leknave: greaze
[13:16:00] leknave: YESSSSS
[13:16:01] leknave: JUSTICE
[13:16:01] The Claimer: sigh lol
[13:16:03] The Claimer: fmfl
[13:16:05] The Claimer: c**t
[13:16:14] leknave: HAHA
[13:16:17] The Claimer: huge justice
[13:16:18] The Claimer: haha
[13:16:36] The Claimer: whata  ball bacary sagna

It was an incred ball by Sagna.

On the following today.

Southampton - 1.44
Celtic - 1.53
Hearts - 1.83
Roma - 1.90

£20 Accy..

Lets gogogogogogogogo.

Prices from Skybet.

Wolves are just so bad I am going to oppose them every game

Seriously, how do people watch this sport. Either the game is getting more of a lottery by the day or I am not aware of the complete change of rules that seem to have happened.

Offside, not a foul and a dive

The referee-ing trifecta there!

Offside by a mile, not a pen, debatable Red, the triple fuck up, wp officials, game spoilt after 10mins, unless you're a Man U fan. Hope the 2nd one is better, won't be hard.

I just caught the end of some Prem highlights from yesterday too. It tells you all you need to know when the Chelsea manager is apologising to the Wigan manager as they are shaking hands at the end of the game for what where two complete and utter joke decisions.

Anyway, Human Planet is on BBC one so I can put myself out of the misery instead.

Everytime they show the replay of the Man U one it gets more tilting, the linesman is in the perfect place looking up the line, it wasn't even close, WTF was he doing ?

The ref is having a cracking match, hopefully he can notch a 2nd then utd can rest him for bigger upcoming games.

You have to see the 'Wigan two' mate, just a starstruck bloke carrying a flag running up and down a line watching his favourite players that cannot believe he is getting paid to watch Torres et al play. They might as well let me do it.

Just a sport in a terrible mess run by people that think their only job is to create money in the game.

love it

We will continue to see diving and cheating until the football authorities have the balls to do something about it. How about them giving any player who dives a five match ban and big fine - it would soon stop.

It's becoming a joke.

Heard some debate a few days ago on 606 I think where the guys on the show, Roberts and Reid??, were basically saying going down is "professional".

It's accepted by the players and alot of fans unfortunately.

the chelsea offside was a joke too and could cost nufc like 5m. abs joke.

yes, basically saying its a game of cheats. Watched by people that see so much cheating they accept it as the norm and a sport that has controversy created by it's major broadcatseer so they can have something to talk about for days after the games.

Sky Sports news ed is already tossing himself into Monday morning at what this weekend has brought him

Cue Alan Mullery talking about refs need to get better etc etc.

Even commentators say "he should've gone down there". Tbh if a Newcastle or England played dived to win a penalty I'm happy he's done it to win us the game, but it's so rife in the game now and nothings being done about it that not cheating almost seems like cheating yourself. I would love to see a 6 game ban giving to a player that deliberately cheated and it definitely would quickly put a stop to it all. Why the authorities won't do this and would rather it carried on I do not know

Maybe I'm wrong but I think it's putting more people off the game than they extra people gain from the interest in the controversy. This sounds very melodramatic but I can honestly see it all come crashing down for football in the next 10 years, people are getting sick of all the political bullshit amongst everything else that is wrong with football.

on that note i fucking hate sebastian larsson.

They need to have a panel to ref the games afterwards to log what actually happened.Then ban the players when they reach a certain amount of retrospective cards, every ban you get you don't get paid, 3 week ban means you lose 3 weeks money. The refs too, they should get points awarded for each decision, ones with the least amount of points get x amount of games ban depending on how bad it is.

If you did that at the moment no team in the land would have a squad big enough to play the fixtures, there wouldn't be any officials to ref the games and eventually they would all stop cheating when their teams were playing 6 versus 9 one week and as happened in a Scottish game a few years ago there was a guy from the crowd running the line.

Then when it goes bust we can start again and have the real game back

On a more positive note, very nice finish from the Ginger ninja, <3 Scholesy, prob my fav non Toon player ever, just love how he rolls.

wtf barry and milner are so so so so bad. balotelli absssss mug aswell.

LOL - QPR have had their appeal over Derry's red card turned down.

The FA must have an entire dept devoted to working out new ways they can be hopeless.

Yes, abs ridiculoius. In rugby league a ref that has made two terrible decisions in recent games has been stood down from his next scheduled assignment. As usual football is happy to plod along, no need to change owt and has been shown how totally out of touch it is compared to other spoprts.