Saturday Football

[bobby1]

'Had told myself I wouldn't get drawn in again. Oh well.'

Don't worry about that fella, there is plenty of room for debate without it getting out of hand like it does on some sports thread, we might see it differently but I am still interested in what you are saying.

You have misquoted what I said tho, I said there were too many variables to have good money on (unbetable, not unprofitable), you can still over come the variables in some cases and win money but that doesn't change the fact that football is a sport with multi variables. If you find good value you will win more when they go your way but hand on heart can you honestly say that football is still a game of 22 players playing for 90 minutes and the team that plays the best is the only factor that comes into play in deciding the winner?

[bobby1]

Doesn't the fact that people can win money laying correct scores to 102% prove that it is a very predictable game rather than the inverse?

No Red,it means that the punters betting those markets still don't realise they are still not getting the right price, they are getting nearer the right price but still not right.

I am close friends with one of the teams that seed those CS, FT markets etc on Betfair. They turn over chunks every week on those markets in every major countries leagues, betting the lower leagues in some of them too. They have a database which we used to use in its infancy at Hills that has a record of every score for the last ten years + of every team priced at XX in every league they bet correct scores on x goal expectancy for those games pre kick off.

If you want to know the CS prices of a team that is 5/4 in the Dutch league 1 in a game with an expectancy of say 3.2 they will have it in 5 seconds because the goals expectancy and history of the league is available to them. Same for all leagues, it is so good that they almost sold it to a bookmaker last year. They don't win because it is predictable, they win because they have done the work to find out the exact price of that score in that individual game and let the punters make the mistake of betting those scores at under the price they are likely to happen.

They aren't predicting anything, they are asking others to predict the scores, they are the ones that lose the money.

[FUN4FRASER]

Don't really understand where you are coming from on this one Bobby?  In the long run football is very predictable and probably the sport more people make a living betting from than any other (except possibly racing).  Sure you get some strange results but that happens in any sport.  It is basically just variance.

Apologies for late post on this subject..........I Like this thread and some of the viewpoints ..I think red has basically summed it up .

For example....Lets take a weekends football like when Blackburn beat Man Utd...  Why did it happen ?  Fergies bad selection/tactics ? ,factors such as players injured /rested ,players tired,illness in the camp,key players sulking , under performing , general complacency or the underdog team feeling the opposite and decide its time to play out of their skins.All these reasons can contribute to shock results !   Regardless of the reasons why they lost... this is just variance.

If you havent accounted for the variant factors in your "weekend football bets " then an alternative solution is simple... Channel your energies and opinions into the long term bets such as outright League winners, handicap markets,top goalscorer or relegation..That way variance is "diluted " and the best performing selection should prevail.

[bobby1]

Don't really understand where you are coming from on this one Bobby?  In the long run football is very predictable and probably the sport more people make a living betting from than any other (except possibly racing).  Sure you get some strange results but that happens in any sport.  It is basically just variance.

Apologies for late post on this subject..........I Like this thread and some of the viewpoints ..I think red has basically summed it up .

For example....Lets take a weekends football like when Blackburn beat Man Utd...  Why did it happen ?  Fergies bad selection/tactics ? ,factors such as players injured /rested ,players tired,illness in the camp,key players sulking , under performing , general complacency or the underdog team feeling the opposite and decide its time to play out of their skins.All these reasons can contribute to shock results !   Regardless of the reasons why they lost... this is just variance.

If you havent accounted for the variant factors in your "weekend football bets " then an alternative solution is simple... Channel your energies and opinions into the long term bets such as outright League winners, handicap markets,top goalscorer or relegation..That way variance is "diluted " and the best performing selection should prevail.

Hi Fraser,

You are right.

That is exactly what I have done.Mostly the Prem and Relegation, Champions league markets and some bits in the Championship outright for the exact reason that week by week matches offer too many things that you cannot account for. As Red said somewhere, football is predictable, I disagree with that over a 90 minute game but long term the variance will wear thin.

I also bet long term outright's like the Superbowl too for the same reason along with golf outrights, as even when it goes against you there is still time for it to go for you, that can't happen too often in something that lasts only 90 minutes.

I do have one question for you Fraser, in the early 90's you and I , Sean N and Rory were in the casino next to Roxy's and I lent you a score, can I have it back yet?

;o)

[FUN4FRASER]

Don't really understand where you are coming from on this one Bobby?  In the long run football is very predictable and probably the sport more people make a living betting from than any other (except possibly racing).  Sure you get some strange results but that happens in any sport.  It is basically just variance.

Apologies for late post on this subject..........I Like this thread and some of the viewpoints ..I think red has basically summed it up .

For example....Lets take a weekends football like when Blackburn beat Man Utd...  Why did it happen ?  Fergies bad selection/tactics ? ,factors such as players injured /rested ,players tired,illness in the camp,key players sulking , under performing , general complacency or the underdog team feeling the opposite and decide its time to play out of their skins.All these reasons can contribute to shock results !   Regardless of the reasons why they lost... this is just variance.

If you havent accounted for the variant factors in your "weekend football bets " then an alternative solution is simple... Channel your energies and opinions into the long term bets such as outright League winners, handicap markets,top goalscorer or relegation..That way variance is "diluted " and the best performing selection should prevail.

Hi Fraser,

You are right.

That is exactly what I have done.Mostly the Prem and Relegation, Champions league markets and some bits in the Championship outright for the exact reason that week by week matches offer too many things that you cannot account for. As Red said somewhere, football is predictable, I disagree with that over a 90 minute game but long term the variance will wear thin.

I also bet long term outright's like the Superbowl too for the same reason along with golf outrights, as even when it goes against you there is still time for it to go for you, that can't happen too often in something that lasts only 90 minutes.

I do have one question for you Fraser, in the early 90's you and I , Sean N and Rory were in the casino next to Roxy's and I lent you a score, can I have it back yet?

;o)

Gosh..thats going back ..Not sure who you are but I can assume ex William Hills Mob  ?

As regards your comments.....If you disagree over 1 match x 90 mins thats kind of understandable...but if you you had 100 matches  x 90 minutes it would reduce variance and as a consequence your selections would be more predictable.... which is what I think red is alluding to

Nice to see you are already betting on long term markets but of course cup matches/tournaments are not long term markets, as they are effectively knocks outs /one offs and are subject to the variance/shock results as discussed above  ( even though there can be group stages and 2 legged affairs )

Good Luck with the punting and if I genuinely owe you a score then no problem  

[bobby1]

Hi Fraser,

Its Phil Q.

I do think Red and I were talking about different timescales and 100 matches would certainly counteract the 90 minute variance but football takes hours and days to work on if you are updating databases, researching teams and team news,watching games and getting the right prices. It can all be to no avail during the 90 minutes of the actual match because there are now too many ways imo that the outcome of that match can be affected.

I was only kidding about the score too, I saw on the HM database you had a great win in the DTD Monte Carlo and some other good events too, congrats mate.

I ran into Sean a couple of months back after a Blades game, still a fantastic character.

[FUN4FRASER]

Thanks Phil...you always did like your football bets ...just make sure you dont miss QPR to be relegated ( still ludicrously  7 -4 ) 

Are you still with Hills or in the industry  ?

[bobby1]

Thanks Phil...you always did like your football bets ...just make sure you dont miss QPR to be relegated ( still ludicrously  7 -4 ) 

Are you still with Hills or in the industry  ?

My relegation book isn't all that good at the moment so QPR getting relegated will be welcomed by both of us. I actually bet Blackburn at 4/1 with the books last summer so they will help turn something I haven't really traded very well on BF into an OK result.

I work part time for one firm trading golf every other week from home, so still got half a leg in the industry.

[FUN4FRASER]

Thanks Phil...you always did like your football bets ...just make sure you dont miss QPR to be relegated ( still ludicrously  7 -4 ) 

Are you still with Hills or in the industry  ?

My relegation book isn't all that good at the moment so QPR getting relegated will be welcomed by both of us. I actually bet Blackburn at 4/1 with the books last summer so they will help turn something I haven't really traded very well on BF into an OK result.

I work part time for one firm trading golf every other week from home, so still got half a leg in the industry.

Sounds fun

please pm if you have any "info"

Cheers

[bobby1]

Thanks Phil...you always did like your football bets ...just make sure you dont miss QPR to be relegated ( still ludicrously  7 -4 ) 

Are you still with Hills or in the industry  ?

My relegation book isn't all that good at the moment so QPR getting relegated will be welcomed by both of us. I actually bet Blackburn at 4/1 with the books last summer so they will help turn something I haven't really traded very well on BF into an OK result.

I work part time for one firm trading golf every other week from home, so still got half a leg in the industry.

Sounds fun

please pm if you have any "info"

Cheers

will do mate

[mondatoo]

Don't really understand where you are coming from on this one Bobby?  In the long run football is very predictable and probably the sport more people make a living betting from than any other (except possibly racing).  Sure you get some strange results but that happens in any sport.  It is basically just variance.

Apologies for late post on this subject..........I Like this thread and some of the viewpoints ..I think red has basically summed it up .

For example....Lets take a weekends football like when Blackburn beat Man Utd...  Why did it happen ?  Fergies bad selection/tactics ? ,factors such as players injured /rested ,players tired,illness in the camp,key players sulking , under performing , general complacency or the underdog team feeling the opposite and decide its time to play out of their skins.All these reasons can contribute to shock results !   Regardless of the reasons why they lost... this is just variance.

If you havent accounted for the variant factors in your "weekend football bets " then an alternative solution is simple... Channel your energies and opinions into the long term bets such as outright League winners, handicap markets,top goalscorer or relegation..That way variance is "diluted " and the best performing selection should prevail.

Hi Fraser,

You are right.

That is exactly what I have done.Mostly the Prem and Relegation, Champions league markets and some bits in the Championship outright for the exact reason that week by week matches offer too many things that you cannot account for. As Red said somewhere, football is predictable, I disagree with that over a 90 minute game but long term the variance will wear thin.

I also bet long term outright's like the Superbowl too for the same reason along with golf outrights, as even when it goes against you there is still time for it to go for you, that can't happen too often in something that lasts only 90 minutes.

I do have one question for you Fraser, in the early 90's you and I , Sean N and Rory were in the casino next to Roxy's and I lent you a score, can I have it back yet?

;o)

I lol'd, then disappointed that you where joking.

[bobby1]

Don't really understand where you are coming from on this one Bobby?  In the long run football is very predictable and probably the sport more people make a living betting from than any other (except possibly racing).  Sure you get some strange results but that happens in any sport.  It is basically just variance.

Apologies for late post on this subject..........I Like this thread and some of the viewpoints ..I think red has basically summed it up .

For example....Lets take a weekends football like when Blackburn beat Man Utd...  Why did it happen ?  Fergies bad selection/tactics ? ,factors such as players injured /rested ,players tired,illness in the camp,key players sulking , under performing , general complacency or the underdog team feeling the opposite and decide its time to play out of their skins.All these reasons can contribute to shock results !   Regardless of the reasons why they lost... this is just variance.

If you havent accounted for the variant factors in your "weekend football bets " then an alternative solution is simple... Channel your energies and opinions into the long term bets such as outright League winners, handicap markets,top goalscorer or relegation..That way variance is "diluted " and the best performing selection should prevail.

Hi Fraser,

You are right.

That is exactly what I have done.Mostly the Prem and Relegation, Champions league markets and some bits in the Championship outright for the exact reason that week by week matches offer too many things that you cannot account for. As Red said somewhere, football is predictable, I disagree with that over a 90 minute game but long term the variance will wear thin.

I also bet long term outright's like the Superbowl too for the same reason along with golf outrights, as even when it goes against you there is still time for it to go for you, that can't happen too often in something that lasts only 90 minutes.

I do have one question for you Fraser, in the early 90's you and I , Sean N and Rory were in the casino next to Roxy's and I lent you a score, can I have it back yet?

;o)

I lol'd, then disappointed that you where joking.

;o)

[ACE2M]

just my two pence as i was agreeing with bobby.

I'm talking about betting FT result, trading on events within the game or laying on betty etc is a different animal that the best can profit from. but if you gave me the option to back a rugby team at 1/4 and a footy team at 1/4 i'd back the rugby team forever, big skill supremacy in a lot of sports more consistently results in the expected result.

For people betting volume and with the required amount of skill and knowledge i'm sure they can find enough value to get a small % return from betting FT in soccer but i bet you couldn't find many of them about.

My specific example was with Eso Krals challenge of launching all his winnings into the next bet until he got to X figure and in that he was backing soccer matches besides other things, i said he should avoid football bets for that challenge.

[adnmdv]

If two odds are the same, the expected win % on the same is both. Am I missing something here?

[ACE2M]

If two odds are the same, the expected win % on the same is both. Am I missing something here?

 it sounds non sensical but i'm sure its true just from experience.

i'll find out for sure based on last years results, comparing footy with rugby union.