blonde poker forum

To cut a long story short I've got some time on my hands at the moment and to avoid having to paint the house I was looking around for something to throw myself into.   After 8 yrs solid poker playing  i need a few weeks off and have been inspired by lurking on this thread for some time and decided to have a look at something else.

Tennis seems like the obv market for someone with a few hours to invest each day so I started trawling through the stats sites.   Soon became apparent that seeing the wood for the trees was not the easiest thing so I designed a little PC app that takes a feed from the stats sites and then juggles the data to help identify the best game to go for / most value etc.  

At the moment it's just in prototype and pretty basic.   It mainly works on recent form past 10-15 matches for each players, surface, results with respects to rankings ,results with respect to odds in those historic matches and helps identify some matches that may be better than others to back, and investigate more closely.

  I'm looking to develop it further and keen for any feedback from knowlagable tennis punters as to other key variables that can be put in there and which variables to prioritise/weight.
 

The hope is also that as i look at the games more and come to understand the sport a little better I can blend the output from the App with a bit of human knowledge and impove it further. From a standing start I'm far from a tennis expert!

The plan is to ID a few short odds games each day and maybe the odd value bet at longer odds.  It only works for LTA at the moment but will add in the chaps over the next few days or so.  

The goal is to make a proffit.

I toyed with the idea of posting this or not but it's no fun doing it on my tod.  Expecting some quality flames :D

I've churned through todays Qualifiers at Indian Wells (takes a while!!)  and have come up with the following 4 bets.   Betting very modeslty at first to see how it goes and would not recommend anyone following the bets :)  The Minella bet was the one where i was surprised when i looked at the market, expected it to be lot closer but still in Krajiceks favour.  I've prob got too many selections for what I want to do but at the moment it's all about developing the approach and then fine tuning.  

The thread may well die a death if I get off to a disaster start :D


Govortsova to bt Hlavackova    1 point @ 1.64
Minella to bt Krajicek                    1 point @   3.0
Foretz Gacon to bt Panova           1 point @   2.38
Tsurenko to bt Kudryavtseva           1 point @   1.54



 

In before anyone else how much do you want :)

Good luck :)

5k in the Swiss Account gets you in on the ground floor.  A/C Ref 'Gnasher 69'  ...i named it after my dog.

Good luck with this, it appears to be very interesting.

Presumably the prices you quote above are the prices available on Betfair (or the best prices available industry wide?).
To assess the value of your application, it would be useful to know what prices your application has assigned to these matches so that we can compare the two. To extend this, you could then post the prices that you have calculated for other matches - even where they roughly tally with what is actually available on the markets.

One KPI that you, presumably, haven't factored in is any injuries that the players may be suffering from. I doubt that you would be able to automatically derive this from any statistics site, sadly.
Also, have you included the date of the last match played so that you can determine how long it is since each player played?

P.S. I think you're following the WTA rather than the LTA. They are women, not ladies, apparently. :D

Govortsova won 6-4, 6-1.
Congratulations, you have a 100% record.

Nor Lawns for that matter!    Good point, well made :)


As for the other stuff...

Prices:  Those are BF prices but I checked on Oddschecker that they were there or there abouts. I've only got 3 or 4 other accounts so will take the price at one of my bookies if it's better.  I'm holding off opening other accounts until I start putting decent size bets on this.  I'm only playing at it at the moment and don't want to blow the Intro bonus on new accounts with tester bets.  Will try to post best price for other selections.


App Calculated Pricings:  The app is not there yet.  But i'd like to put this in to some degree.  The app at the moment just gives indicators from the the data provided that you can gleam from investigation on the net... just does it a bit quicker/easier and highlights games for deeper follow up investigation.

Putting the logic in that I'd apply myself to gain some indication of "my price" is hard work and I'm sure my logic has many flaws at the moment. So far (ie yesterday and today) I've been looking at the indicators and classifying in my head - Strong Win/Prob Win/Win/Close Call... then checking the odds.   One area I'm not clear on is short price value bets/margins and need to have a think about it.  I mean it's easy to say a 2-1 dog is value if I call it at 55-45 but need to understand better if in my head a Strong win is value at 1.3 etc.

Currently it just provides an indicator as to games that may be better to back given recent history and I delve deeper into that market to try and find a reason not to back.

Injuries: I have found a site that gives info on injuries... not sure how on the ball it is.  Any pointers?

Dates of last match played:   I'm just keeping an eye on this manually at the moment.  I'm currently working on last 10-15 games... seems to cover couple of months for most players for the small sample I've worked on. 

One question I was thinking of that maybe a tennis pro punter could help with ... What's decent guide line for the half-life of tennis results/trends/info and when to discount?

As stated previously it's all very Heath Robinson at the moment but i think the key is refinement and development plus gaining some "human" market knowledge to blend in with the raw stats.

Good stuff.
I wish you well.

Govortsova 1 point @ 1.64 WON 6-4 6-1
Tsurenko 1 point @   1.54  WON 6-3 6-1
Both these came in as comfortable 2 set wins.  One of the main objectives is to pick the lower priced games where there's less chance of a surprise so happy that both of these were comfortable wins. 


Foretz Gacon 1 point @   2.38 LOST Retired injured
FML .. 1st 4 selections and one goes lame.  Not a lot I can do about it.


Minella 1 point @   3.0  LOST 6-4 5-7 6-3
Starting price came into 2.73 and Minella gave her a game for 3 sets at a price, she went a break up in the 1st as well but handed it right back :/ ... overall happy with the value in the bet @ 3.0


Day 1:  Total Point: -0.82
Running Total Points: -0.82


Will now have a look at today.

Working through the matches but got a few things on today so not sure if i'll process them all.. but have found one i like

Parmentier to bt Date-Krumm 2 pts @ 1.79 on BF (BP at the moment)

Today...

Rus to bt Baltacha                  0.5pt   2.84  BF
Gajdosova to bt Vandeweghe   1pt   1.8   Corals
Pironcova to bt Navarro           1pt   1.62   BF
Paramentier to bt Krumm           2pt   1.78   BF

paramentier is out to over 1.85 now and drifting alot further than i thought too might even be 1.9 before the off i got on at 1.83

not liking out postion just now a dbl break down in first set and they have only just started the 4th game

Eeewwww looks like she's having trouble winning a point let alone a game/set :(

she finally broke 5-1 down in second set i feel a comeback her oppo is 40 nearly as old as me guess she is needing her slippers and pipe by now

But she's 5'4 and 53kg..... How's that compare?  ;)

I'm admiring the optimism but sadly not to be

Rus to bt Baltacha                  0.5pt   2.84  BF   LOST  - Rus was 1 set up and 4-2 up in the 2nd trading at 1.14 and blew it -so happy with the value bet.  If I'd had a decent £ bet on it I may have traded it out then.

Gajdosova to bt Vandeweghe   1pt   1.8   Corals  WON

Pironcova to bt Navarro           1pt   1.62   BF  LOST

Paramentier to bt Krumm           2pt   1.78   BF  LOST  Paramentier got totally stuffed.

Day 2:  -2.7 pnts
Total:  - 3.52 pnts

Not a good day :D

You could just add a few phantom in-play bets and you'll be showing a good profit. I'm sure nobody will notice.

Been done already i think...

Pervak to bt Govortsova  1pt @ 2.0 BF

Sanchez to bt Lino 3 pts @ 1.32 BF

Scheepers to bt Johansson 3 pts @  1.29 LadB

Pervak to bt Govortsova  1pt @ 2.0 BF. won

Sanchez to bt Lino 3 pts @ 1.32 BF.  lost (sigh)

Scheepers to bt Johansson 3 pts @  1.29 LadB won


Day3  -1.7 Pts
No time to look at anything over the weekend so will save some $