blonde poker forum

Slightly naughty this, as I don't have Neil's permission, but I have sent him a link to it, & he'll either say I have some once a week, & ask me to summarily remove it, (which I will) or he might just come on here & tell us some more.

He sent out a round robin to the world & his wife by way of some Black Belt Poker spam, so he gets a shout out, as does Black Belt Poker. So, play on our sponsors site - DTD Poker - who are financing this Forum, & then give Black Belt Poker a little spin now & then. Seems fair.

Read it quickly, as it may not be up here long. Then again, who knows, we might get Neil to give us a few more pearls of wisdom.

The attraction to me is the writing - it's so beautifully put together, & funny on so many levels if you read it properly, a really enjoyable read. (A bit of smoke up his ample arse might just tip the balance, so be nice about him please).

The main event of the day is the Champion Hurdle.
 
Hurricane Fly won this race last year and it looks likely to win again. That is why it is odds-on.
 
I am backing Binocular each way. William Hill lay 5/1 with each way terms of 1/4 1,2,3 which means we have a shot at winning but we make a profit if it comes 2nd or 3rd. I think it will do that 70% of the time while it will win around 15%. The maths is looking good for this bet. Corals also say they are 5/1 and 1/4 1,2,3 (good luck with that project).
 
I may also have small each way bets on Overturn and Celestial Halo at 33/1 and 66/1.
 
I will be having a bet on all races every day but I don't want this email to be too long.

Thats it for now.

I'll send him a link to this, & lets see what he says.

Either we can publish the rest, as & when he writes it, or if he wants it removed, you can see it on the Black Belt Poker Forum.

Play a bit on Black Belt Poker, make it your # 2 Site after DTD Poker.com.

Neil

If you can give us all a 50/1 winner I promise to play the Sunday major on bb for 10 weeks! ;0)

There you go, Neil.

PS - Guy also mean't "as well as playing regularly on DTD Poker, obv".

PPS - Have sent a link to this to Neil.

I'm just out on my travels today:

I will be visiting lots of betting shops in the North East of England to have ew Lucky 31s

Al Ferof
Binocular
Kentford Grey Lady
Oscar Whisky
Big Zeb

Get on, get paid.

didnt channing go broke as a bookie, by betting his own opinions and getting stuffed? why should he be treated as a cheltenham oracle? Has he any record of being a good judge or 'in the know' at any stables?

hey keef, fancy a match bet my finians rainbow vs your big zeb?

I have no ideas if he is a "Cheltenham oracle", Rick, but as I noted, it is a shame to waste such a fine piece of writing. I wish blonde had more members who could write even half as eloquently, even if it is bollox.....".

".....The attraction to me is the writing - it's so beautifully put together, & funny on so many levels if you read it properly, a really enjoyable read.

We all see things differently, & I have no idea if the tips are sound or not. Don't really care, tbh, I just wish I could write puff & spam half as interestingly.

 I spent £600,000 on racecourse pitches Rick. I sold them for around £50,000. I wish I'd never done that. Thanks for mentioning it. That was my bookmaking career. It cost me on average £600 a day to go to the races, I was an aggressive bookmaker with big expenses and several staff. After a few years it was clear it was no longer a viable business.

 I am pretty happy with the money I've made betting on horses. I do think that betting provides a great way to settle all discussions on who knows what they are doing.

 Would you like to lay me some bets?

 I once told someone in an interview that I went out of business because my prices were too big.

 In truth the combination of debit cards and mobile phones becoming more commonly available, Betfair taking a lot of my commercial advantages away, turnover dropping and expenses rising totally killed my business.

 It was the closest I've been to comitting suicide on the final day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting of 2003 when I finally realised it had all gone wrong.

 Thanks for mentioning it though Rick.

 How much would you like to gamble at Cheltenham?

 I'm prepared to go heads-up for rolls (I am perfectly serious).

got out of bed the wrong way? was a pretty tongue in cheek from me. I apologise if it caused any offence. I think it was a fair question though.

 I'm quite serious. Would you like to find out if you'd enjoy laying my bets? Your post stated I went skint backing my own opinion. You do not know how I have done punting my opinion, but I'm happy for you to find out if you wish to try.

wrong, i asked, although with bad punctuation. "didnt he go broke betting his opinions" missed a question mark out there. Was just looking for people to confrim you've been crushing for years before we all rushed to bet your opinions with you. Think thats fair enough. And no i dont wan't to lay your bets at cheltenham thanks.

That picture is so scary. Makes me want to join a gym.

Nearly.

You've got a bet, your Finians v  my Zeb. How much do you want?

love channing

bottle?

Booked.

Either is a non runner, no bet.

Of all the people that deserve to get gambling grief surely  NC is way near the bottom of the list. I would love to have won a pound less than he has when i retire.

Im pretty sure Ricks post came across differently than it was meant to tho.

Hope nobody minds (take it down if you like). Every week I am involved in The Punter. This week we did a Cheltenham Special:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMHOdIVTJ3k

If Mr Channing followed the "tikay Tips" Thread, he could be as rich as I used to be.

Whilst we're at it...a brief preview I just wrote for a chap who has invited me up to the box next to the Finish line on Tuesday (thin, I know).


Supreme Novices

Recent renewals have tended to ‘grant’ punters a short priced jolly in the Festival opener but no such ‘good fortune’ this year (said favs have been a massive let down of late).

This is instead a wide open contest with Darlan likely to go off favourite around the 4/1 mark. Owned by JP McManus and trained by Nicky Henderson the horse should prove a popular choice for punters, especially given JP’s comments regarding Darlan being his best chance of a winner through the festival. He’s backed this view up with cold hard cash punting Darlan in from c12/1 following his fall when going best in the Betfair hurdle to around 6/1, and since then punters more generally have leapt on the Bandwagon.

I punted Darlan at 20/1 (thinly veiled brag) after his easy win earlier in the year so am happy enough but wouldn’t advise backing at such a short price as 4/1 given his previous travails up the Cheltenham hill. Instead side with Steps to Freedom.  Jessica Harrington’s always seem to go well at the festival and she’s no mean trainer. Apparently STF has been working very well at home and gave Oscar’s Well a beating on the gallops and a bit of market support in recent weeks (having held a position near the head of the market for some time) is highly promising. Anything around 7/1 would rate a decent bet to get the Festival off to a decent start.

The Arkle

The first ‘banker’ of the festival comes out in the shape of Sprinter Sacre, a horse about who Barry Geraghty has been raving in relatively hushed/awed tone. He’s as good a judge as they come and given SS’s unbeaten record over fences (including a couple of track records) he’s tough to oppose.

Cue Card has been poor over fences and Menorah no better, and it would shock me if either came good here. SS’s greatest rival is Al Ferof, who won the opener here a year back with SS in third. Apparently bought as a future Gold Cup horse for Nicholls’ yard he’ll certainly get the hill and is my choice at around 11/4 to beat the machine that is SS. It may well be that SS really proves to be something special, but given the manner in which he faded up the hill in last year’s Supreme I’m happy to take him on with Al Ferof.

JLT Handicap

Oh dear… the first of the meeting’s ‘guess-ups’. Quantitativeasing will likely be all the rage given the manner of his victory here in December (getting up to beat Medermit on the line having flown up the hill. He should go close but betting 6/1 shots in big field handicaps isn’t generally my cup of tea and I don’t see any value in the price.

Two I do like at ‘working man’s’ prices are Tullamore Dew (likely to be around 12/1) and Mossley (around 20/1 should he line up). A lot of firms will offer 5 places in this race and these can both go close (or, heaven forbid, even win) at decent prices. Mossley in particular looks rather well handicapped to my mind and has course form. Nick Gifford’s tend to go pretty well at the festival and TD certainly seems on a mark from which he is likely to prove competitive.

Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly (NAP). Not an unusual choice but will win. The thing’s an absolute machine and should be the first of two short-priced winners for Mullins on the Tuesday (see Mares’ Hurdle re: Quevega).

He’ll likely go off 4/6 which won’t make you rich quick unless you bet the house, but generally when horses are odds-on in a Grade 1 with 10 runners there’s pretty decent reason for it… No reason to suspect any of the other Irish raiders will turn around recent form, and Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby rate, to my mind, the best English challengers (think Binocular is gone at the game (cue him hacking up)). I backed Rock on Ruby for last year’s Neptune at 25/1, watched him trade 1.05 in running before getting beat on the line (marvelous) and, whilst I’d expect to see him in the shake-up I just don’t think he has the class to beat the Fly. Zarkandar’s victory at Newbury was a mighty fine one under a wonderful ride from Ruby, but with Walsh taking the HFly mount I just don’t see it.

If things are going your way in the early races barrel in to the Fly and press up!!

Cross Country Chase

‘Horses for courses’ or so they say for this specialist race, and the old guard will have plenty of support. Scotsirish is the better of Mullins’ two and, though he’s the jolly, still represents value around the 3/1 mark. He had a look at the course back in December (in the race where c8 runners took the wrong route!), and was going best that day trading 1.6 in running having been backed all day into 11/8 (from around 4/1).

In my mind he’s a class apart and well worth a bet, even at the front of the market.

Mares’ Hurdle

Quevega will win, though whether 4/7 is for you I will leave to you to decide.

For those looking for an each-way alternative a chap I know who is a v. decent judge likes Kentford Grey Lady running for Emma Lavelle. If betting on course just be wary not to get stiffed on the each-way terms as they try to stop the each-way thieves…

Pulteney Novices’ Chase

Back to throwing darts at the board in the lucky last. Nicky Henderson has quietly positive about his runner Triolo d’Alene (tipping it to his old school’s racing club as his best bet of the festival) though it’s not exactly a well-guarded secret with the horse likely to go off favourite or near-enough around the 5/1 mark.
I quite like the look of That’ll Do and Vino Griego if lining up. The former is likely to be around the 14/1 mark, has course form and has previously beaten For Non Stop giving away 7lbs. He’s been put away since October (preserving his mark presumably) and I’d expect him to go close for Nicholls. How he’ll handle the big field would be my only question mark.

Vino Griego runs for Gary Moore and was competitive in last year’s Centenary Novice’s finishing fourth proving course and large field form. He was beaten just a couple of lengths by Quantitaveasing and Tullamore Dew that day (admittedly getting 6lbs), but I quite like both of these two earlier in the day so the form ties in well. At around the 25/1 mark I rank him as a lively outsider, and at around the 5/1 mark for the place part of an each-way bet represents excellent value.

Tremendous stuff all round on here already.

tx

anyone know which races these guys are in so i can find them online

I've never failed to win less than £5k on day one of cheltnam and never failed to make a significant loss on the festival.

Sample size?

sample schmample.

I think this is right.

Al Ferof - 2:05 - Tuesday 13th. Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)

Binocular - Tuesday 13th. 3:20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

Kentford Grey Lady - Tuesday 13th. 4:40 - OLBG Mares' Hurdle (for the David Nicholson trophy).(Grade 2)

Oscar Whisky - Thursday 15th. 3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1)

Big Zeb - Wednesday 14th. 3:20 - sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

Think somewhere in the region of the last 15 years. The hardest part was in the early days finding a bookie to take 4 figure bets off a 7 year old :)

Will you be playing in our £25 Festival tipster competition Neil?

I think anyone with opinions on the festival really should do.
See: http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57000.0

I think it will sort the men from the boys.

claimer...the rules haven't changed here since your attempts to post several years ago

overly personal/derogatory stuff aimed at any poster will be deleted. Your post wrt Neil was OTT

deleted, thanks.

I was going to respond to an earlier post, looks like I will have to be quicker than that with the ninja editors

Hope this settles down before Friday!  Most of us will all be searching for the 66/1 shot we need to lock up the prizepool (and possibly get out of it on the week too)

I think there has been a massive over reaction to my post and I've obviously hit a nerve somewhere.

If I am honest, Im disappointed my posts were deleted.

My commetns were not personal, far from it. I am sure he is a nice bloke, doest make him a good business man.

Having an honest opinion isnt allowed on this forum.

I wish they hadn't been deleted.  But they were personal, no doubt about that.  And also speculative/subjective too, unless you have information to substantiate?

 I would say your post came across as overtly personal. What do you know about any businesses I have run and how they have done? What do you know about how I have done in betting poker? Your post intimated you had secret knowledge to share yet I have never met or spoken to you to the best of my knowledge.

 I thought you were quite rude actually, and it didn't strike me you thought I was a decent bloke. You called me a chancer.

* betting and poker.

 I can't now fathom how you thought that wasn't personal. You stated several subjective things as fact, intimating that you had personal knowledge.

 Are you saying you have dirt on me? What is it?

Can we keep the non-constructive posts to the Luton thread please?

Well it wasnt personal, ok?

There are a few chancers on here mate, that I will stand by. If you set yourself up as a bookmaker, you are certainly taking a chance! Especailly with the start up figures you mentioned earlier.

If I am wrong, I apologise.

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH YERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

I can't afford the £270 unit stake bet365 are offering. Worth a £10 stake though i think.

Cheers

Sandy

thats my 20p yankee sorted :)

I havent had many bets, did ask Trigg for some advice - however have added Keiths Lucky 31 at £5e/w for £310 to his previosuly advised Midnight at 25s in Gold Cup and the New One in the bumper.  Owe you a beer Keef if they all kop for sure.....

What would that £310 lucky 31 pay if they all placed?

its ew so there is 62 bets think i'll just make it a £1 per bet stake

At the prices I have taken

5/2
5/1
12/1
4/1
9/2

it returns £1,994.51

we'll just smash intot he fly on tuesday shaun. Im with brent on blackstair mountain e/w for the arkle

thanks guys

Bugger all as £10 * 31 would be win only but a £620 one would yield a win around what Camel says.

Sandy

Just busted $6m after outlasting 30,000 - so wont be abso smashing into it lol

Nope the one I worked out was £5 ew..

Yes, mine was a bit under as not best proces but had money in SJ

Haha, used an online calc then dismissed it as i didn't want to argue with you :)

Sandy

You asked who for advice?

Trigg is a bookies wet dream at cheltenham and his stats at the festival are 0/7.

Last year his biggest bet was the last race on the friday, it was an ametuer womens jockeys race, hands and heels, no whips charity race.

On for peanuts for some interest tomorrow!!!

lets go!!!

Pretty sure these two don't exactly pair up as clearly as you are insinuating.

But A+ for another incendiary, attention-seeking post, wp.

Lol @ wet dream. I did have a score ew on the charity race last year on the thursday, as we were still fking around looking for the noble prince ticket you had dropped on the floor, wasn't my biggest bet by a long way obv. Although I have had a bad last few cheltenham's. I've not resorted to following slh and roger greens selections yet though.

I'm best man at this guys wedding by the way, great person in real life, absolute living arsehole on facebook, twitter and now blonde. We've been best mates for 16 years and after I linked the thread on facebook came on after a bottle of the grape juice to defend me/state channing. He was the first claimer to play poker before I took over his account back in 05

My bad.

Enjoy cheltenham all.

Try again.

Below is the continuation of Neil's e-Mail to his Black Belt Poker players.

To see more detailed analysis, go to the Black Belt Poker Forum as below.

I had planned to upload this first part yesterday morning, as agreed with Neil, but I decided to delay it. Therefore some of the time-sensitive stuff is out of date.

On to Wednesday. I would like to stress that I'll be having many bets on every single race but these emails contain the strongest bets and the ones where I think the prices are very wrong and we need to act now. Wednesday doesn't have too many things where we need to rush in and so I'll do most stuff on the day.

The RSA is not one for early action as we don't know if the favourite Grand Crus will take this route or go in the Gold Cup. I suspect it'll go here and I'll oppose it quite strongly. One big price one you could back now would be Walkon. It's 33/1 with Boyles, Betfred and Stan James (or Spoylesports, Baldies and Sid James if you prefer). It's shorter on Betfair and I know it's fancied. I may get very interested in Sir Des Champs on the day but not yet.
 
The Neptune is also complicated by running plans. Here I would oppose the favourite Simonsig for many reasons and I quite like Batonnier. There is no need to rush and do anything yet though.
 
The NH Chase (call it the 4-miler if you want to appear expert), the Coral Cup and the Fred Winter are all races where different firms will offer enhanced each-way terms as a loss-leader on the day. They may even do that in the Champion Bumper. For those non-expert basically they will give us chances to bet EVERY horse in the race and guarantee a profit. That chance would only exist if we could bet place-only and get best prices, but it does mean that we should easily find +ev bets.

Nearly up to date now.

The latest missive went out last night, & is reproduced below.

The first race is the Triumph hurdle. This used to be considered to be a right lottery. It was always a really impossible race and betting each-way 1,2,3 seemed crazy with 30 runners.
 
Luckily two things have changed everything and we as punters should always be good at reacting to changes.
 
The first big change is that they now have another race called the Fred Winter on the Wednesday. Basically all the rubbish horses that used to run in the Triumph now go to the Fred Winter, mostly leaving just the good ones here. With less congestion and a split of eight or nine contenders and a load of no-hopers this race has got a lot easier.
 
The second big change is that the bookmakers have started going mad in recent years with their each-way offers. All bookmakers will go each-way 1,2,3,4 1/4-odds in this one as a minimum. At least two firms will go 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 and one might even offer first six.
 
Five places on 6/1 to 12/1 chance in a nine-runner race.
 
Yum, yum.
 
I'm not going to reveal my selection until the day, as I don't need to rush and bet ante-post. The each-way concessions won't be available until Thursday night.
 

I once went a whole Cheltenham without backing a whole winner. That year the County Hurdle was the last race on the last day. I backed the winner at 16/1 and won on the meeting. I'm hoping that I'll be on the board by the time of Friday's 2nd race, but I'll bet on the day as many firms will do 1st 5 places and a couple may do 1st 6.
 
The Martin Pipe Conditionals may be my quietest race of the week and that and the Johnny Henderson will both be left for the day when the each-way enhancements are revealed.

  The Albert Bartlett has finally taken shape with Willie Mullins sending his talented Boston Bob here at the last minute. He will go off around 6/4 and set up the race for a great each-way bet.
 
I like Gordon Elliott's Mount Benbulben a lot. It had a problem when beaten by favourite Boston Bob last time and the chiropractor was called. Connections seem confident of having another crack and Tom Segal seems to like it strongly so this could carry the Pricewise money (he doesn't normally bet in these races).
 
If anyone can get me on the 11/2 with Bet 365 each-way that would be great. I wouldn't take the 11/2 with Hills yet though as they are not going to non-runner no bet this year (booo!).
 
The other thing that would stop me going crazy this early on is the possibility of somebody using each-way first five places on the day. Victor Chandler and Bluesq did that in this race last year which would make this one of the best bets of the week.

The other race apart from the Gold Cup is the Foxhunters Chase - the Gold Cup for amateurs.
 
The negatives for me in this one would be doubtful stayer Chapoturgeon and Roulez Cool who's jockey will be rushing into this from the Gold Cup.
 
I think the solid one is Cloudy Lane which I reckon will stay on strongly and is a good bet to place. On the day some firms will offer 1/4 1,2,3,4 so I'll be looking for that. Bluesq and Victor Chandler did that last year.
 
The final race, (I'm almost done, "Thank God!", I hear you say), to talk about is the Gold Cup.
 
I'm excited because it's one of the highlights of the sporting year and I'm excited to take on Kauto Star for all sorts of reasons. I sort of think I should take on Long Run, who I backed heavily last year, as well.
 
The problem is I can't find too many strong ones.
 
This would be a race where I really don't like each-way bets that much.
 
At big prices I could be on What a Friend and Diamond Harry but I will back them win only at 33/1 and 40/1 and I could maybe like Weird Al.
 
I'll probably play bookmaker and lay a few. The one that can't win is Synchronised, I'm laying Kauto at these prices and I think Burton Point is way too short.
 
In summary, I'm not rushing to do anything for Friday at this early stage but I will be getting very involved in the Albert Bartlett and the Triumph maybe on the day.
 
nc

"I think you can easily eliminate all horses of 16/1 or bigger. I really have examined those horses individually in detail and I can't see them winning."

LOL famous last words!!!

Wife backs Weird Al too (after Alister james obv) and her nap was Bobsworth after taking a bet a few weeks ago that has wiped out any chance of a decent shop bonus next year.

 Excellent after-timing Hairy. You couldn't find another loser before Friday?

Ffs you can't take a little bit of gentle ribbing...also wd on synchronised cant win this race!!!

Who needs Cheltenham results ? when they can crush at PLO

http://www.pokertableratings.com/stars-player-search/N+Channing


Good Stuff Sir

Not me sir - I do know who it is.

 I only play on Black Belt Poker these days. Last time I played a tournament on Stars a ten page thread developed on 2+2 saying what an idiot I was. I had enetered without realising it was a two-day thing and decided I was going to gamble it up. I probably played like a bit of an idiot. Lots of people decided to be quite rude and I decided not to play there again. It was my way of teaching them what can happen when you upset the fish. They probably didn't notice.

Just as well really. I don't think I should really be seen to play on other sites and I was thinking of asking this guy to change his name actually.

If I was a gambling man I'd bet it's JA, his style name, stakes and he is good

Dubai in  "if I were a gambling man" shocker.....

 You have got the initials Dave so I would bet that you know the young fella.

Quite fitting really. Akenhead bashing up the high stakes plo using channing's name. My handle on stars is tony_kendall and I had to move half way across the world just to afford to eat :)

Dave Dubai in another shock " I have inside knowledge " gamble. :)

Lol I doubt it, there's just only a handful of people in uk capable of winning at them stakes and the name and profile fits, and not Akenhead

I knew it. It's got to be fucking Jack Arrama :)