Channing's Cheltenham chatter

[tikay]

Slightly naughty this, as I don't have Neil's permission, but I have sent him a link to it, & he'll either say I have some once a week, & ask me to summarily remove it, (which I will) or he might just come on here & tell us some more.

He sent out a round robin to the world & his wife by way of some Black Belt Poker spam, so he gets a shout out, as does Black Belt Poker. So, play on our sponsors site - DTD Poker - who are financing this Forum, & then give Black Belt Poker a little spin now & then. Seems fair.

Read it quickly, as it may not be up here long. Then again, who knows, we might get Neil to give us a few more pearls of wisdom.

The attraction to me is the writing - it's so beautifully put together, & funny on so many levels if you read it properly, a really enjoyable read. (A bit of smoke up his ample arse might just tip the balance, so be nice about him please).

[tikay]

Hello all,
 
We've reached that time of year again when a young man's thoughts turn to that little town in Gloucestershire and all that goes on there - it's not the literary festival or the ladies college that concern me but the opportunity to attempt to burgle amazing each-way bets from bookmakers who suddenly welcome with open-arms stuff they wouldn't usually touch with a very large barge-pole at Ludlow on a damp Thursday.
 
I am telling lots of people that I am writing about the festival on Black Belt Poker, (find the thread under groups, I plan to start it tomorrow). I will update there and put up some bets and analysis each day.
 
Just for you lucky few though here are my early thoughts.
 
Obviously as usual, if anyone can help me get on then feel free to.

[tikay]

Tuesday starts with the Supreme Novices Hurdle. This is a 2m race for novice hurdlers. It's the championship for them. Darlan is the favourite. This horse took a nasty fall last time. It may well have won that valuable race but we'll never know. It is currently 5/1 and I'm opposing it. It seems to have been accepted that it would have definitely won and that has been 99% factored into the price. I personally prefer not to just "give" it the win and I don't see falling as a great prep.
 
Midnight game is a horse that has had it's troubles in the lead up to this and it's the first I put a line through.
 
I believe the winner will come from Steps to Freedom, Gallileos Choice, Cinders and Ashes, Montbazon and Tetlami.
 
The strongest of those would be Montbazon which I would rate as a fairly decent bet at 10/1.
 
The real beauty of this race is to bet each way though (suprise, suprise).
 
Cheltenham is a real shop window for these bookie chappies and on a normal day this race would offer 1/5th odds a place for 1st,2nd or 3rd.
 
As a loss leader many firms like Stan James, BlueSq and Bet365 will go 1/4 odds for 1st/2nd/3rd/4th. This will happen on the day.
 
Skybet are already offering 1/4 odds 1st to 5TH.
 
We should punish them It would probably be profitable to bet all five on my shortlist each way.
 
If you have never bet with these firms you may even get a free bet.

[tikay]

The second race is the Arkle. The favourite is a horse called Sprinter Sacre who won very impressively at Newbury recently. People were stunned and excited and the opposition in this race have been scared off.
 
The horse is now odds-on even though it has been doing all it's winning on flat tracks, not undulating ones like Cheltenham. It has also never really been truly tested under pressure. Last year it ran in the supreme novices hurdle and it faded on the way up the hill.
 
The argument for it is that it has grown up and it's a different horse. It took your breathe away at Newbury.
 
It could win easily but I believe it is a hype horse.
 
I think this race gives us outstanding betting opportunities.
 
Crystal Bonus, Kid Cassidy, Nearest the Pin and Astracad have been left entered for the race just for now, in case the favourite has a problem and can't run. They will almost certainly be switched on Monday night to other, easier races.
 
That will leave a race of six runners at the most.
 
We must act now before the bookmakers wake up and realise what will happen.
 
I have backed Menorah each way but I will be trying to get more on at 10/1. If anyone can help that would be great. I have backed Cue Card at 7/1 each way and I would love more on.
 
If you back these horses before the end of Monday you get 1/4 odds 1,2,3. In a 6 horse race that would be insane value.
 
I totally understand that Cue Card failed to win at Cheltenham last year, that it may be better suited by 2m4f, (this race is 2m) and that the jockey is pretty bad.
 
I totally understand that Menorah hasn't proved itself as a great jumper this year.
 
I would just say that price is everything and that gambling is not a risk-free enterprise.

[tikay]

The main event of the day is the Champion Hurdle.
 
Hurricane Fly won this race last year and it looks likely to win again. That is why it is odds-on.
 
I am backing Binocular each way. William Hill lay 5/1 with each way terms of 1/4 1,2,3 which means we have a shot at winning but we make a profit if it comes 2nd or 3rd. I think it will do that 70% of the time while it will win around 15%. The maths is looking good for this bet. Corals also say they are 5/1 and 1/4 1,2,3 (good luck with that project).
 
I may also have small each way bets on Overturn and Celestial Halo at 33/1 and 66/1.
 
I will be having a bet on all races every day but I don't want this email to be too long.

[tikay]

I'll just tell you about one more bet to have on day one.
 
The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle has been won for the last few years by the amazing Quevega. This horse is kept hidden away in Ireland and then it comes over and pulverises the field in a rubbish race every year.
 
The race does present a big value each way opportunity though.
 
I'm suggesting we back Kentford Grey Lady at 12/1 and Swincombe Flame at 10/1 each way. The firms are all offering 1/4 1,2,3 and they do not want to take each way bets on this one. They know it's really not profitable but they don't want to not be able to say "we are offering 1/4 1,2,3 ALL RACES".
 
If we can get just one of them to place we will break even. If we fill 2nd and 3rd it's a nice profit and if we win...happy days.

[tikay]

I will be writing more for the Wednesday tomorrow.
 
If you'd rather not hear about it let me know. If you can get me anything on I would be very pleased.
 
nc

[tikay]

Thats it for now.

I'll send him a link to this, & lets see what he says.

Either we can publish the rest, as & when he writes it, or if he wants it removed, you can see it on the Black Belt Poker Forum.

Play a bit on Black Belt Poker, make it your # 2 Site after DTD Poker.com.

[outragous76]

Neil

If you can give us all a 50/1 winner I promise to play the Sunday major on bb for 10 weeks! ;0)

[tikay]

Neil

If you can give us all a 50/1 winner I promise to play the Sunday major on bb for 10 weeks! ;0)

There you go, Neil.

PS - Guy also mean't "as well as playing regularly on DTD Poker, obv".

PPS - Have sent a link to this to Neil.

[The Camel]

I'm just out on my travels today:

I will be visiting lots of betting shops in the North East of England to have ew Lucky 31s

Al Ferof
Binocular
Kentford Grey Lady
Oscar Whisky
Big Zeb

Get on, get paid.

[action man]

didnt channing go broke as a bookie, by betting his own opinions and getting stuffed? why should he be treated as a cheltenham oracle? Has he any record of being a good judge or 'in the know' at any stables?

[action man]

I'm just out on my travels today:

I will be visiting lots of betting shops in the North East of England to have ew Lucky 31s

Al Ferof
Binocular
Kentford Grey Lady
Oscar Whisky
Big Zeb

Get on, get paid.

hey keef, fancy a match bet my finians rainbow vs your big zeb?

[tikay]

didnt channing go broke as a bookie, by betting his own opinions and getting stuffed? why should he be treated as a cheltenham oracle? Has he any record of being a good judge or 'in the know' at any stables?

I have no ideas if he is a "Cheltenham oracle", Rick, but as I noted, it is a shame to waste such a fine piece of writing. I wish blonde had more members who could write even half as eloquently, even if it is bollox.....".

".....The attraction to me is the writing - it's so beautifully put together, & funny on so many levels if you read it properly, a really enjoyable read.

We all see things differently, & I have no idea if the tips are sound or not. Don't really care, tbh, I just wish I could write puff & spam half as interestingly.

[action man]

I'm just out on my travels today:

I will be visiting lots of betting shops in the North East of England to have ew Lucky 31s

Al Ferof
Binocular
Kentford Grey Lady
Oscar Whisky
Big Zeb

Get on, get paid.