blonde poker forum

Vs a random

Are we supposed to play this any differently?

PokerStars Hand #77881953597: Tournament #566010182, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (300/600) - 2012/03/27 10:15:52 WET [2012/03/27 5:15:52 ET]
Table '566010182 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: learn_fold (6240 in chips)
Seat 2: Luj0_1989 (16084 in chips)
Seat 3: epitomised (11835 in chips)
Seat 4: olligol123 (4058 in chips)
Seat 5: crusader1532 (2161 in chips)
Seat 6: doppiavu (17334 in chips)
Seat 7: FredBelgium (2345 in chips)
Seat 8: uczniak (6889 in chips)
Seat 9: TheViking66 (8688 in chips)
learn_fold: posts the ante 70
Luj0_1989: posts the ante 70
epitomised: posts the ante 70
olligol123: posts the ante 70
crusader1532: posts the ante 70
doppiavu: posts the ante 70
FredBelgium: posts the ante 70
uczniak: posts the ante 70
TheViking66: posts the ante 70
crusader1532: posts small blind 300
doppiavu: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [Kc As]
FredBelgium: folds
uczniak: folds
TheViking66: folds
learn_fold: folds
Luj0_1989: folds
epitomised: raises 660 to 1260
olligol123 has timed out
olligol123: folds
olligol123 is sitting out
crusader1532: folds
olligol123 has returned
doppiavu: calls 660
*** FLOP *** [Kh 9h Qc]
doppiavu: checks
epitomised: bets 1500
doppiavu: calls 1500
*** TURN *** [Kh 9h Qc] [6d]
doppiavu: bets 1800
epitomised: calls 1800
*** RIVER *** [Kh 9h Qc 6d] [2d]
doppiavu: bets 3600
epitomised: calls 3600

Looks good to me

bigger ott

he donks the turn (our oppo that is)

I feel like we're 90% winning on the river but i see no reason to raise, so i guess this is the right line.

raise turn

This is the exact line I would take, whether that is right is another question!

back to the drawing board Mr. Atkin ^^^

-Folds out worse
+Gets value from draws that will call
- Doesn't let Opp bluff
? We fold to a shove?
+ Can win the pot now

I think its very close, but call/call is lower variance and better when we cannot assign an accurate range vs a random, we sort of have to guess if he ever has 2p+/AThh etc.

Not raising turn as he is 100% bluffing all missed draws on river, so we get our value there

y is he 100% bluffing on the river?

THink we need to clarify that

We look quite weak - raise cbet, check

He will bluff missed draws as its his only way to win

he might however have us beat which is why i prefer ck call,  ck call

You need to re-read the hand history.

Sorry to be a bitch, but there is so much sloppy thinking in this thread.

Raise the turn.

we dont do any checking, he is probably  fish, he will call with worse hands when we raise = valuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

Anyone advocating raising the turn, have you noticed that there's ~8.5k in the pot when we're facing his turn bet and we only have 8.5k back? You're basically saying min-raise turn/shove the river? I dunno seems kinda lame to me...

sorry

i meant just call call

still happy with that, just dont think that raising the turn does anything but send us broke when he hits his river

Not what I would do, but for discussion and thoughts, can we not shove turn over his donk?

Yes of course we can. And we should.


I personally don't want a bet of only just over a 1/4 the size of the pot to go in on the turn. And that's what happens if you allow villain to get away with donk block-betting 1800 into 6500.

Stacks are often awkward in tournaments, that's just how it is. However, they are not particularly awkward in this hand. It is not like a turn shove is a particularly big bet - we'd be shoving an extra 7200 or so into a pot of just over 10,000 (obviously including the cost of calling villain's 1800 donk bet). So we're not overbetting, or even raising the size of the pot for that matter.

We started the hand with less than 20 big blinds. We have hit top pair top kicker. Our opponent  has taken a ridiculously fishy turn line. We should be more than happy to commit our stack. This should be obvious, but I am saying it just in case anyone is thinking of pot control, protecting their tournament life, not going broke with one pair and other such silly stuff.

When we jam the turn we can expect to get called by worse made hands, and draws, a decent amount of the time - especially given the fact that villain's turn line suggest he is a very poor player. And if he folds then... too bad, but it is not the end of the world - at least we deprive villain of his equity, and increase our stack substantially.


This is a terrible way of thinking about poker. Sorry I am a bitch tonight, I'm in that kind of mood - and can't be bothered to think of a gentler way to say it ;-)

I would add that calling turn looks more appealing because we know river bricks. Many other cards would make any river jam a tough, prob impossible problem to solve. Turn jam is a much simpler strat and I think we should embrace simple whenever possible in tournaments.

The turn jam folds out the majority of hands we beat

Being in position is huge in this hand to let him bluff the river when he bricks and we are underrepped

Yeah with stack sizes it's quite an easy turn jam

Flatting his 1/4 pot donk lets him see the river card for a ridiculously cheap price.

Granted, if you somehow knew that he would always fold his draws/worse made hands if you jam the turn AND you also knew that he would jam his missed draws a really high percentage of the time on the river... well then flatting the turn is ok. But these are two extremely ambitious assumptions to make. There is no reason to think he is going to jam his missed draws 100% of the time, or anywhere close to that, as you state authoritatively earlier in this thread. And there is also no reason to think he will fold most hands that we beat if we jam. Based on his silly turn donk it is extremely likely he is a bad player. A bad player will very often call it off with draws and weaker made hands.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  81,180  games     0.000 secs    16,236,000  games/sec

Board: Kh 9h Qc
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    56.307%     55.88%    00.43%             45360          350.00   { AcKc }
Hand 1:    43.693%     43.26%    00.43%             35120          350.00   { 99, AhJh, ATs-A2s, K8s+, JTs, K8o+, JTo }


---

with those stats id sooner call call than hope he is drawing

The range you have given him is not even remotely appropriate/realistic.

Why?

because unless he calls it off with KJ we only beat his draws, he still might fold terrible flushes (hence not inlcuded in the range) and we are dead to 30% of his range

We are plenty under repped that he fires missed draws on river - and if we are calling anyway, we might as well give him the opptorunity

First, why are you assuming he won't call it off with KJ? He is a likely bad player and bad players do a lot of calling off with weak made hands. I'd not be at all surprised if he called it off with much worse hands than KJ tbh. He might not even need top pair! For example, a lot of his Qx hands are going to have gutshots too on this board so he might well call off with these. Remember, this guy is most likely terrible.

Also, he has a ton of other draws that you haven't included in his range. What about his pair plus FD hands just for starters? Not sure why you haven't included these and some other draws in his range.

Btw, is the range you give supposed to be his continuing range vs a turn jam? Or is it his range for calling flop then donking turn? You haven't made this clear (you've implied at first that it is his range to donk the turn, but then you've implied that it is his continuing range vs a jam).

You seem to be quick to make bold assumptions. Stuff like 'villain is never calling a jam with worse than AK' and 'villain is 100% bluffing the river with his missed draws'. If your assumptions are guaranteed to be correct then there is a decent argument for playing as you describe (i.e. call turn, call river). However, we can never be certain of our assumptions and I have given reasons why these assumptions are likely incorrect. Just to repeat - villain is a bad player, there is a decent chance he will call it off with KT, QJ, a flush draw or whatever. And even when he hero folds QJ then at least we have deprived him of his ~20% equity (although obviously we'd sooner he called).

Tbh I am still surprised that earlier in this thread you implied that we should not get all-in on the turn because villain might call with a draw and hit on the river.

Just to conclude... We have hit top pair top kicker with AK against a presumed bad player with less than a 20bb starting stack. We should be wanting to play for stacks. We definitely want more than a quarter pot bet to go in on the turn, especially on a board this wet. We also don't want to lose action from a weaker made hand when a flush or 4 card straight arrives on the river and we thus fail to stack KT or QJ or whatever. There is a nice chunk in the pot already anyway, even if villain ends up hero folding. Get the money in.

No I didn't

As for the range you are right we can drop k8

As for the rest I thought  I had only selected hh aces but I haven't. Both of these things will improve his equity

Please feel free to put up your own range (continuing obv) if mine is so unrealistic.

This is where you implied that we shouldn't raise the turn because all it would achieve is to lose our stack if he outdraws us.

As for everything else... Well if you address my points then I will come back and argue the toss with you. But you have ignored most of what I said. Few examples:
1. You have still not made it clear exactly what the range you give is - is it his turn donking range or his calling a jam range?
2. You have ignored my argument that villain might very well call with worse made hands and draws.
3. You have ignored me when I pointed out that you haven't included lots of other hands in his range, e.g. Qx hands for a start.
4. You have not addressed the issue that your suggested line is based on the assumption that villain will bluff his missed draws 100% of the time on the river.
5. You have also completely ignored the fact that flatting turn lets villain get away with setting his turn price at 1/4 pot. If you think this is fine then say so and say why, but don't just ignore it.

I was assuming the raise wasnt AI and therefore the point is irrelevant

1. I have - its his calling range  - I have just omitted terrible flush draws which he may have
2. The only hands not in the range specificed are Qx - i think  he ck/calls these hands
3. I dont think he leads Qx hands - and he probably doesnt get them in for the rest

How do we interpret/react to the weak turn lead if we have no hand?

Tbh I don't know why I keep biting, but I am in the sort of mood recently where I just seem unable to let sloppy thinking and contradictory arguments go. I know I am going to come across as bitchy and pedantic, but actually I am just trying to be precise and rigorous. Honestly I am not trying to be mean and aggressive with my points, I just can't think of a nice kind way to say them. Please don't be offended pal...

Please explain WHY this would make the point irrelevant. And also - being pedantic - you must surely admit that the quote I gave does show you inferring that we should not raise the turn because it might lead to us being stacked if villain hits his draw? You had denied saying this...

Actually, you definitely had not stated (until this quote) whether the range you gave was supposed to be his calling range or his donking range. In fact, reading your other comments I am not 100% sure that you actually did mean this range as a calling range... for example, you give loads of Kx hands in this range, but then later say that you think villain will fold most of these hands to a raise. Can you see why it is difficult to actually discuss this properly with you, when I am not even sure what range you are giving?

But let's take it at face value, and assume that you were indeed giving a calling range in your stove sim. And let's also put aside any disagreements (and mistakes you may have made e.g. including all suited Aces, not just the flush draw ones) about the exact construction of this range for the time being...

Your stove shows that against the calling range that you give for villain AK has better than 56% equity. So why wouldn't we want to get the money in? Nice bit of clear value to be had right away with a 12% equity advantage, plus lots of dead money already in the pot to further pad your EV. Not to mention the added bonus that you would also be protecting your equity share in the pot (and your tournament life if that sort of thing is important to you) by forcing opponent to fold some shitty hands that still have equity against your hand. So can you explain the thought process that you had at the time, when you saw you had 56% against a calling range but thought this was not a good spot to raise for both value and protection.

Maybe, maybe not - you can account for uncertainty like this in stove by weighting the combinations of Qx/FD hand that he calls with. This makes your stove much more realistic. I feel that villain may very well try to get to the river cheaply by making a 1/4 pot blocking bet with a lot of his pair plus gutshot hands like QJ, KT or whatever. Many bad players do this with their draws too. We may very well have different opinions on exactly what a call flop, donk small turn line tends to mean, and that is fine of course. But I certainly would not remove these hands completely from either his turn donking range or his turn calling range.


I have pretty much discussed this one above. But I am just going to repeat one of my earlier points - villain is a presumed bad player, so why have you made an assumption that he is not calling with QJ type hands (i.e. pair plus gutter) and such like?

BTW, I also made 2 further points in the post you responded to, but I made them in an edit so you may not have seen them... The one thing that I really want to pull you on is that you said villain is 100% bluffing all his missed draws on the river. It is really bad to make this sort of blanket assumption imo. And if this assumption is incorrect then the line you suggested is not good.

tl;dr  :P

Yes you did! ;)

I dont think eitehr line is wrong, but i prefer mine

what I would say is that the villain makes a lovely leverage bet on the turn where we are commited and he can fold any bluffs , get in huge draws and hands that  already beat us

MC

I def think that results would be welcomed in this hand, got nothing to do with being results oriented but adds weight to what people do with what hands and why

cheers

How can villain have any bluffs in his range here? He check-called the flop! He can have a ton of semi-bluffs of course if that's what you mean, but he can't have any really weak semi-bluffs/pure bluffs given that he called the flop OOP. With his semi-bluffs it is lovely if he folds these on the turn... and even lovelier if he doesn't. It is also smashing if he gets his money in with 'huge draws', since we have a nice equity edge on the turn. And if he has somehow got a made hand that has us beaten then so be it, we are committed anyway with the SPR being so low.

Tbh, I think villain's play is really bad with any part of his range. Apart from anything else, it solves the problem for us of having slightly awkward stack sizes on the turn. If villain did not donk then we would either have to overbet shove all-in or make a smaller bet that leaves a really annoying amount of money behind on the river. His donk makes things loads easier for us by setting the SPR up really nicely for a comfortable jam. And not just with our specific hand either: if we had a big draw ourselves he is setting up stacks beautifully for us to have the best possible risk/reward ratio through shoving. And if we have a weakish draw or weaker made hand he is giving us the additional option of just flatting IP with it since we are getting such a great price.

I don't mind results being posted at all. But I don't think it adds any weight to the discussion really. I definitely won't be saying "see I told you so!" if villain turned up with QhJh or something like that. And I'm sure you won't think it has proved your side if villain turned up with something completely random like AJo that he would have folded to a turn jam.

No but if we never know how people play hands then we learn nothing

Yes I agree. Shock horror!! ;)

Im hoping the villain has 77

Why could we not float the Turn?

Assuming we dont have a hand with value?

Guy and Stu, sitting up a tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G  :kiss:

So, his lovely bet folds out the bottom of our range. What else does it achieve?

V bets his monsters
keeps him in cheap for his draws
whilst all at the same time keeping his range open????????

A Bet sized at 25% of the Pot (rough estimate, as I can't read the hh v easily) doesn't seem to get much value to me.


Really? A check is even cheaper.


Has his Check/Call on the Flop not already closed his range?

1. It does when we pay him on the river too
2. Yes but limits him getting paid
3. Nope but pls let me know what cards he has if you think so, I accepted he might c/r his draws but we have no info on tendencies so let's no assume that

How did this thread ever get beyond this?

1. It's a wet board, I (in his position) would rather get paid now.
2. He knows he is going to hit?
3. I think that a Ch/C on the Flop implies that he has a medium strength hand: FDs(that he didnt want to get in on the flop), Kings, Queens, Gutshots, Nines.

If he has better than this, why would he not want to take an aggressive action (Donk or Ch/R) OOP on a wet flop?

That would be because I and others (HoneyBadger, pleno etc) don't think it does and were/are looking for reasons as to why we are wrong.

Yowzer @ this thread, lol.

Don't think it's that complicated a spot. Looking back I think the line I took is fine. Raising the turn is perhaps also a reasonable option.


Villain had JTos, FML.

def fold pre he's gonna flop you dead  :P

whenever I'm in a spot where I have no choise but to stack off to the top of his range (this is without question one of those spots) I prefer to try take a line that maximises value vs the bottom 75% of his range.

As the two clear options here are to call and bluff catch the turn or to jam the turn for value I'd lean strongly towards jamming the turn purely because I can't see any true air in our opponents range at all.

Lets Punish bad draws and worse K's and not worry about sets, 2p's or JT because we have no option but to go broke vs them at some point in the hand anyways, I think flatitng the turn relieves pressure of the weaker parts of his range which isn't the optimal way to play here imo