Line check

[MC]

Anyone advocating raising the turn, have you noticed that there's ~8.5k in the pot when we're facing his turn bet and we only have 8.5k back? You're basically saying min-raise turn/shove the river? I dunno seems kinda lame to me...

[outragous76]

sorry

i meant just call call

still happy with that, just dont think that raising the turn does anything but send us broke when he hits his river

[KarmaDope]

Not what I would do, but for discussion and thoughts, can we not shove turn over his donk?

[Honeybadger]

Not what I would do, but for discussion and thoughts, can we not shove turn over his donk?

Yes of course we can. And we should.

Anyone advocating raising the turn, have you noticed that there's ~8.5k in the pot when we're facing his turn bet and we only have 8.5k back? You're basically saying min-raise turn/shove the river? I dunno seems kinda lame to me...

I personally don't want a bet of only just over a 1/4 the size of the pot to go in on the turn. And that's what happens if you allow villain to get away with donk block-betting 1800 into 6500.

Stacks are often awkward in tournaments, that's just how it is. However, they are not particularly awkward in this hand. It is not like a turn shove is a particularly big bet - we'd be shoving an extra 7200 or so into a pot of just over 10,000 (obviously including the cost of calling villain's 1800 donk bet). So we're not overbetting, or even raising the size of the pot for that matter.

We started the hand with less than 20 big blinds. We have hit top pair top kicker. Our opponent  has taken a ridiculously fishy turn line. We should be more than happy to commit our stack. This should be obvious, but I am saying it just in case anyone is thinking of pot control, protecting their tournament life, not going broke with one pair and other such silly stuff.

When we jam the turn we can expect to get called by worse made hands, and draws, a decent amount of the time - especially given the fact that villain's turn line suggest he is a very poor player. And if he folds then... too bad, but it is not the end of the world - at least we deprive villain of his equity, and increase our stack substantially.

just dont think that raising the turn does anything but send us broke when he hits his river

This is a terrible way of thinking about poker. Sorry I am a bitch tonight, I'm in that kind of mood - and can't be bothered to think of a gentler way to say it ;-)

[MANTIS01]

I would add that calling turn looks more appealing because we know river bricks. Many other cards would make any river jam a tough, prob impossible problem to solve. Turn jam is a much simpler strat and I think we should embrace simple whenever possible in tournaments.

[outragous76]

The turn jam folds out the majority of hands we beat

Being in position is huge in this hand to let him bluff the river when he bricks and we are underrepped

[BulldozerD]

Yeah with stack sizes it's quite an easy turn jam

[Honeybadger]

The turn jam folds out the majority of hands we beat

Being in position is huge in this hand to let him bluff the river when he bricks and we are underrepped

Flatting his 1/4 pot donk lets him see the river card for a ridiculously cheap price.

Granted, if you somehow knew that he would always fold his draws/worse made hands if you jam the turn AND you also knew that he would jam his missed draws a really high percentage of the time on the river... well then flatting the turn is ok. But these are two extremely ambitious assumptions to make. There is no reason to think he is going to jam his missed draws 100% of the time, or anywhere close to that, as you state authoritatively earlier in this thread. And there is also no reason to think he will fold most hands that we beat if we jam. Based on his silly turn donk it is extremely likely he is a bad player. A bad player will very often call it off with draws and weaker made hands.

[outragous76]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  81,180  games     0.000 secs    16,236,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    56.307%     55.88%    00.43%             45360          350.00   { AcKc }
Hand 1:    43.693%     43.26%    00.43%             35120          350.00   { 99, AhJh, ATs-A2s, K8s+, JTs, K8o+, JTo }


---

with those stats id sooner call call than hope he is drawing

[Honeybadger]

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    56.307%     55.88%    00.43%             45360          350.00   { AcKc }
Hand 1:    43.693%     43.26%    00.43%             35120          350.00   { 99, AhJh, ATs-A2s, K8s+, JTs, K8o+, JTo }

The range you have given him is not even remotely appropriate/realistic.

with those stats id sooner call call than hope he is drawing

Why?

[outragous76]

because unless he calls it off with KJ we only beat his draws, he still might fold terrible flushes (hence not inlcuded in the range) and we are dead to 30% of his range

We are plenty under repped that he fires missed draws on river - and if we are calling anyway, we might as well give him the opptorunity

[Honeybadger]

First, why are you assuming he won't call it off with KJ? He is a likely bad player and bad players do a lot of calling off with weak made hands. I'd not be at all surprised if he called it off with much worse hands than KJ tbh. He might not even need top pair! For example, a lot of his Qx hands are going to have gutshots too on this board so he might well call off with these. Remember, this guy is most likely terrible.

Also, he has a ton of other draws that you haven't included in his range. What about his pair plus FD hands just for starters? Not sure why you haven't included these and some other draws in his range.

Btw, is the range you give supposed to be his continuing range vs a turn jam? Or is it his range for calling flop then donking turn? You haven't made this clear (you've implied at first that it is his range to donk the turn, but then you've implied that it is his continuing range vs a jam).

You seem to be quick to make bold assumptions. Stuff like 'villain is never calling a jam with worse than AK' and 'villain is 100% bluffing the river with his missed draws'. If your assumptions are guaranteed to be correct then there is a decent argument for playing as you describe (i.e. call turn, call river). However, we can never be certain of our assumptions and I have given reasons why these assumptions are likely incorrect. Just to repeat - villain is a bad player, there is a decent chance he will call it off with KT, QJ, a flush draw or whatever. And even when he hero folds QJ then at least we have deprived him of his ~20% equity (although obviously we'd sooner he called).

Tbh I am still surprised that earlier in this thread you implied that we should not get all-in on the turn because villain might call with a draw and hit on the river.

Just to conclude... We have hit top pair top kicker with AK against a presumed bad player with less than a 20bb starting stack. We should be wanting to play for stacks. We definitely want more than a quarter pot bet to go in on the turn, especially on a board this wet. We also don't want to lose action from a weaker made hand when a flush or 4 card straight arrives on the river and we thus fail to stack KT or QJ or whatever. There is a nice chunk in the pot already anyway, even if villain ends up hero folding. Get the money in.

[outragous76]

Tbh I am still surprised that earlier in this thread you implied that we should not get all-in on the turn because villain might call with a draw and hit on the river.

.

No I didn't

As for the range you are right we can drop k8

As for the rest I thought  I had only selected hh aces but I haven't. Both of these things will improve his equity

Please feel free to put up your own range (continuing obv) if mine is so unrealistic.

[Honeybadger]

still happy with that, just dont think that raising the turn does anything but send us broke when he hits his river

This is where you implied that we shouldn't raise the turn because all it would achieve is to lose our stack if he outdraws us.

As for everything else... Well if you address my points then I will come back and argue the toss with you. But you have ignored most of what I said. Few examples:
1. You have still not made it clear exactly what the range you give is - is it his turn donking range or his calling a jam range?
2. You have ignored my argument that villain might very well call with worse made hands and draws.
3. You have ignored me when I pointed out that you haven't included lots of other hands in his range, e.g. Qx hands for a start.
4. You have not addressed the issue that your suggested line is based on the assumption that villain will bluff his missed draws 100% of the time on the river.
5. You have also completely ignored the fact that flatting turn lets villain get away with setting his turn price at 1/4 pot. If you think this is fine then say so and say why, but don't just ignore it.

[outragous76]

still happy with that, just dont think that raising the turn does anything but send us broke when he hits his river

This is where you implied that we shouldn't raise the turn because all it would achieve is to lose our stack if he outdrawn us.

As for everything else... Well if you address my points then I will come back and argue the toss with you. But you have ignored most of what I said. Few examples:
1. You have still not made it clear exactly what the range you give is - is it his turn donking range or his calling a jam range?
2. You have ignored my argument that villain might very well call with worse made hands and draws.
3. You have ignored me when I pointed out that you haven't included lots of other hands in his range, e.g. Qx hands for a start.

I was assuming the raise wasnt AI and therefore the point is irrelevant

1. I have - its his calling range  - I have just omitted terrible flush draws which he may have
2. The only hands not in the range specificed are Qx - i think  he ck/calls these hands
3. I dont think he leads Qx hands - and he probably doesnt get them in for the rest