blonde poker forum

Hi guys,

Just wanted to get an opinion on what you would do with these 2 particular hands in this spot.

It's 150/300 pre ante, I'm up to 30k after peaking at 42k then losing KT vs 97hh on QJ3 w/2 heart board. I have been reasonably active but none of my hands have actually gone to showdown and I haven't had to tap the table and acknowledge good call yet.

Ali Malu opens to 900 utg and gets 4 callers and I am on button. I 3bet to 3250, both blinds fold, Ali folds and it folds to the last peeler. He now piles for the same stack (I had 200 more).

What are you doing with:
1) AKs
2)AQ

Villain was middle aged (~30) had been fairly tight but had been opening etc and I had already 3bet squeezed against him twice which he peeled both times and both times check folded flop. Other then that can think of no real other info on him.

problem with hand recollection IMO  ;D

call AK

AQ dependant on the player

I mean he has 88 99 & AK so often here I think you can justify folding AQ, but its tight

I'm not calling off 100bigs this early without KK+.

If I understand you correctly  Ali  is opening + 4 callers and yourself , so 6 people in the hand in total. This is eventually down to 2 (you and the guy thats  jammed)
 
You have to think that of the other 8 cards folded its likely some of these are aces , kings or queens so this somewhat decreases your chance in a race with both of your suggested hands.

Its quite likely he has what Guy is suggesting 77 88 99 ish but of course he could have  slow played AK or even better. 

Personally I think AQ is an insta fold as any pair he is holding could already be a big percentage favourite (as reasons stated above ) or you could be dominated by AK etc.

AK is more difficult of course , but with the villain being tight I dont expect you to be that much of a favourite against many holdings ,so it could be marginal....maybe a crying fold ...although this is never easy when looking down at AK .

more importantly , he is never 4th in the pot and calling with AA KK QQ

Always prepared to take the flip. Dependant upon how he sees you he could just be spazzzing out. I mean you are saying he is tight be we are pre ante and therefore he might be competant and just see this as a lovely spot to pick up 6k in dead chips

flat pre.

You're mental one of the hands was Ace King!

Seems to be ~4.5k in the pot already before you squeeze button

Is he the type of guy to flat AA or KK when 3 players are in the pot behind? - Visibly upset that you have 3 bet his opens multiple times? Holding a grudge vs you and ready to slam AQ ATs and all pairs?

AK i go with, AQ just muck, use my 90bb stack to pick up chips against what I presume to be a soft table this early

Call both ldo

roll my eyes and call with AK, probs fold AQ even tho its slight +ev, rather keep my seat

I expect him to have 77-JJ most of the time here.  Depends what you think your edge is in the tournament imo.  If you call one Id call both.

Went to bed thinking if by when I wake up nobody has posted this I've obv gone mad.



why are you calling AK and folding AQ?

sure was what i said - read again IMO

I guess we'll have to just disagree he has AK so often

you dont think random players call behind with AK multi way in live poker pre ante?

you dont think random players call behind with AK multi way in live poker pre ante?
[/quote]

I thiink they do, but not 'so often', and certainly nowhere near as much as they do with KQ

I thiink they do, but not 'so often', and certainly nowhere near as much as they do with KQ
[/quote]

I agree, but then not many would follow thru with a 4 bet shove with KQ for 90bb. This is obv villain dependant, but we only know he hasnt done much. (i think you are Sam Macdonald?), so against you I beat you into the pot with both hands, against an unknown random who has shown nitty tendancies, I would think some about the AQ, thats all im saying (but yes I probably call) - which I think is what I tried to say in my OP.

I doubt someone who calls behind 4 people with AK is now gonna rip it, although Sam would be the person to push them over the edge if anyone could. Probably though you're up against some joke of a hand like 22 or JTs for the fake flip. I'm struggling to think of a hand where I'd have a tough decision here tbh.

I know you guys have seen it all a hundred time more than I have...But I can't see how you can dismiss someone flatting a monster here IP to Ali Mallu, I can think of a lot of lol live players who would to trap, especially with a 'punk kid' otb who's going to squeeze an awful lot of his range an awful lot of the time.

Firstly middle aged being ~30 when I am 36 is sick!  (I'm hoping to hit a century so middle age should be 50ish) ((Tikay??)) Second, fold to the raise when you can continue the tournament with around 27,000 + chips and out play your opponents in smaller pots.

guy can definitely have QQ+ here, still not folding AK though.

Id be shocked if anyone is overcalling an open + 3 calls with AK or QQ+, even pre-ante.  I think JJ and AQ is stretching it a bit also.

I think you are making big assumptions about the field and orthodox plays. Twice i saw AA overcall otb v utg opens and multiple callers and generally @ ukipt's iv seen lots of unusual plays.

Interesting thread.

I was debating this hand with Sam+others and said snap AK, meh pass AQ, while snap fold AJ.

Main reason for AQ nittage was I totally think mucho live players will peel AK here and pile to the laggy young kids squeeze.

Squeezer's image is very important and Sam's aint gonna be tight is it. Convincing myself 4bettor has spazzes now, meh.

I'm not totally sure ppl flat QQ+ all that much here, whereas they def will with hands like JJ/KQ/AQ all day long from my experience.

Still don't think AJ is very close which is what contributed to the discussion as OP thought it was.

I'd be happy sacrificing some short term Ev with AQ and certainly AJ for long term spots v droolers, while maintaining my 100bbs.

Having said all this I def agreed i'd go with whatever Keys said.

Oh and now i've thought about it a little more I personally in this spot would size a little more pre live, but being pedantic and maybe bad.

I just hate multi way peelers and wanna exploit those like Ali more too, but we have pos and the effective nuts I guess.

Was gonna stove this, guess i should now.

Ps-Isn't middle aged at least 40+??

Obviously when stoving this hand it's vital to assign the villain the correct range here.

I personally don't think it's as wide as people like Keys who have said that 22/J10s could show up as effective spazzes.

But unlike Alex Martin I also doubt he has QQ+ all that much.

Thus, I'll put both in the range to give a fair result.

Anyway AKs v 22+/109s+/A10s/AJ+/KJo+ is 58% fav.

AQo v same range is 51% and AJ is 46%.

Kinda explains my thinking, one hand has a significant edge while one is flipping and the other is a dog.

AKs

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,006,834,752  games     0.000 secs   201,366,950,400  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    57.793%     54.42%    03.38%         547873980     34005638.00   { AKs }
Hand 1:    42.207%     38.83%    03.38%         390949496     34005638.00   { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+ }



AQo
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,082,147,200  games     0.000 secs   616,429,440,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    50.608%     47.04%    03.57%        1449857832    109956834.00   { AQo }
Hand 1:    49.392%     45.82%    03.57%        1412375700    109956834.00   { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+ }


AJo

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,082,147,200  games     0.000 secs   616,429,440,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    45.958%     42.35%    03.61%        1305201720    111294870.00   { AJo }
Hand 1:    54.042%     50.43%    03.61%        1554355740    111294870.00   { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+ }

Middle-aged is well over 40 imo.

Think all those calculations are some way of the true representative odds. Putting in AJ+ and 22+ means you are assuming he has AA as much as he has 99, or AK as much as he has AQ which is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off imo.

28+ = old imo. Middle aged is more to do with appearence and personality then the actual age

All of the biggest heros in poker are actually middle aged

Oi!!! I am 28... I am most certainly NOT middle aged!!  ;tk;

Do you have facebook or twitter?

No way do I think he has AA as much as 99 nor AK as much as AQ.

But I don't think he has 22/J10s as much as he has larger pairs nor larger broadways.

Nothing can be perfect when assesing the range through stove, it's not way off, it's a range assesment.

Personally I think the villain's range is rather largely weighted to 55-JJ, AJ/KQ/+

Versus this range the results I posted above are largely the same.

Aks is a clear fave, AQo is a flip, Aj is a dog.

Sorry Dom didn't mean you personally think this, just meant 'your' as in the calculation is assuming