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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: cambridgealex on July 05, 2012, 07:51:44 PM



Title: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: cambridgealex on July 05, 2012, 07:51:44 PM
Event #59, $1k buy-in, field is extremely weak, to be frank, the standard resembles a £50 freezeout. You start with 3k chips and every chip is very valuable to me and I don't want to be calling off in marginal spots, defo in the camp of passing on a slightly +cEV spot in favour of waiting for easier spots.

Hand 1. 100/200 no ante. We have 7k so 35bbs. Utg limps. Utg+1 limps. We are utg+2 with Jc Js and raise to 850.  Utg calls, Utg+1 raises to 3300 covering us both and committed to calling shoves from either.

Reads: Chinese, in his 40s, big stack. Nothing out of line in first few hands. People in Vegas generally love to limp/raise Aces and Kings. As in, it's never anything else. However, he has overlimped, though I have seen people overlimp/raise with Aces here too. He's not American though, so maybe he's not in the limp/raise aces school, perhaps he's doing this with AK or 88-TT. I thought Aces though.

Hand 2. 150/300/25. Utg was just utg+1 and shoved 3k and got it through. He is young and been fairly actively shoving in his short stack. Now he minraises. He started this hand with about 3500 so almost 12bigs. Decent/aware playing in MP 3bets to 1500. Both moves are ridiculously strong and and I found Queens with 8k on the button and snap folded. I wouldn't fold Kings though, but not loving it.

Hand 3. 200/400/50. Old guy playing 3700 raises the hijack to 900. The small blind shoves 7000. I have 11000 in the big blind with Ahrt Qh. Old guy didn't look super strong to me, even though his actions are that of a big hand. Other guy can have AT, AJ, KQ I suppose but I'm not sure on his range, and I'm not sure on my read of the old guy. I'm happy getting it in vs either one of them if heads up, but I since I have to worry about both and those 7000 chips I'm calling off are so valuable and a big % of my stack I decided to fold.

Thoughts on all 3 folds?


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: outragous76 on July 05, 2012, 07:54:30 PM
1. fold
2. all in
3. fold

for me


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: The Camel on July 05, 2012, 08:00:43 PM
1. Call. Over limping with aces very rare imo. Very good chance of a medium pair or AK here.
2. All in. This one is easiest imo.
3. Fold


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: rfgqqabc on July 05, 2012, 08:04:51 PM
1. Soul read here, whatever you did in the moment is correct
2. Jam, we have the 3rd best hand, and not many chips. I know what your saying but really?
3. Its prob +cEv, if you want to take it, take it.

Big fan of live reads and feel especially if your playing well, so just back yourself.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: NigDawG on July 05, 2012, 08:13:20 PM
1. Fold
2. Puke, feel like folding can't be too big a mistake tho. Don't fold KK
3. Happy reshoving this


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: Pugwashed on July 05, 2012, 08:31:42 PM
1. I really don't know, I probably get it in tho
2. Folding seems fine
3. Getting it in


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: tight4better on July 05, 2012, 09:11:25 PM
Only have an opinion on 2) which is jam, I think you'll see AK/JJ/TT etc a lot here


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: the rage on July 05, 2012, 10:16:44 PM
1. Fold
2. All in
3. Call

In hand 2, i'm thinking that the min raiser wants to be perceived as strong, but that he actually isn't. The 3 bettor may well think this too. You could actually be up against 2 ace highs. Either way, i would be more worried about the 3 bettor as i would expect the initial raiser to jam his entire range here. Queens is too good to pass for me here.

In hand 3, this spot is a great spot for the small blind to be shoving with a very wide range, including much weaker aces than yours. For this reason, with your hand, i call.

Good Luck to you and the Team Eureka for the rest of the trip Alex. And cheers for posting the hands.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: PutYouOnAK/AQ on July 05, 2012, 10:33:55 PM
Hand 1, Fold
Hand 2, 4bet call, sometimes just call and hope utg shoves then call the reshove.  Don't we think the 3bettor can have 99-JJ AQ+ loads?  Don't think folding is bad though its all close
Hand 3, Reshove


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: cambridgealex on July 05, 2012, 11:07:21 PM
2 I think is the easiest fold of the lot and I didn't even think to bring it up itt until just before I posted it.

Maybe it was just a live read / you had to be there moment but I just knew QQ was no good there.

I think the AQ fold was a mistake and the JJ fold is good but not sure on that one.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: cambridgealex on July 05, 2012, 11:39:29 PM
1. Call. Over limping with aces very rare imo. Very good chance of a medium pair or AK here.
2. All in. This one is easiest imo.
3. Fold

Polar opposite of this for me lol!

Though I agree 2 is the easiest....fold....


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: SuuPRlim on July 05, 2012, 11:46:51 PM
I'm happy folding hand 1 wouldn't blame you for getting it in though.

Hand 2 is gross, if its gone jam/jam would be merrily getitng QQ, as played it sucks but I do think the 3better can be doing this with some of the weaker hands but if he's competant which you think he is he'll prolly be stronger than usual because of the min instead of the jam from the 12bb stack

defo going with hand three, think it's a great spot 2 open(ish) ranges and some overlay+a big suited ACE


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: muckthenuts on July 06, 2012, 12:03:18 AM
They do love a limp-reraise, i think hand 1 is a definite fold. They just have it like >95% of the time here.

2 i'd fold as well as described. If everybody is really that bad and this kid is good enough to realise he doesn't need to balance then i can't see us ever loving it after the reraise from another competent player.

Hand 3 yeah get it in.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: mondatoo on July 06, 2012, 12:47:51 AM
Kinda relevant what mid pos stack is for hand 2 but sounds pretty gross.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: Boba Fett on July 06, 2012, 04:28:22 AM
Id get hand 1 in, fold hand 2 based on sizing and reads.  from the sound of the HH I fold hand 3 but with live read I dont think getting it in can be bad


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: BulldozerD on July 06, 2012, 09:34:41 AM
I agree with Boba. If initial limper in hand 1 wakes up I fold but just can't give credit to the overlimper. Like the fold in hand 2 and hand 3 is ok either way I suppose


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: dakky on July 06, 2012, 04:18:19 PM
high-five getting in hand 3 for me


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: Ant040689 on July 06, 2012, 05:20:55 PM
1. Fold
2. Puke, feel like folding can't be too big a mistake tho. Don't fold KK
3. Happy reshoving this

This.

With a slight tendency to do the reshove for QQ for hand two, but with your read and gut feeling on it, definite fold.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: zerofive on July 06, 2012, 08:06:23 PM
They do love a limp-reraise, i think hand 1 is a definite fold. They just have it like >95% of the time here.

2 i'd fold as well as described. If everybody is really that bad and this kid is good enough to realise he doesn't need to balance then i can't see us ever loving it after the reraise from another competent player.

Hand 3 yeah get it in.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: youthnkzR on July 07, 2012, 12:39:50 PM
1. Getting it in.. It's going to be hands like 88/99/1010 most of the time IMO.. He very rarely has a bigger pair.. Possibly an AK aswell.
2. Think you can fold but it's situational.. Not a fan of folding this spot in long run.
3. I'm not folding here.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: Junior Senior on July 07, 2012, 01:01:34 PM
I will make this easy.

1. Fold
2. Fold
3. Fold

Long clock, ok stack, will be better spots. I just dont think we can be sure enough on any of these that we are ahead. However, i dont think 2 or 3 are too bad if we get it in. The JJ is clearest fold for me.



Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: DMorgan on July 09, 2012, 05:26:43 AM
Folding the first two, getting AQs in. We just do so well against their expanded ranges that contain a ton of Ax and the shover can have a ton of Qx too.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: stato_1 on July 09, 2012, 07:56:55 AM
Lots of pretty good players have come on and said hand 1 is a fold but I think it is the easiest shove of the 3. Who overlimps aces?

AQ is pretty easy get in unless ur vs real nits, actually want to fold the QQ tho i think this is closest


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: DMorgan on July 09, 2012, 08:17:36 AM
I don't think I've ever seen someone (over)limp/raise in Vegas and not have KK+


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: DungBeetle on July 10, 2012, 03:24:01 PM
Good post Alex.  Not sure I like any of the spots, but

1) Fold
2) Fold
3) Shove

For me.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: muckthenuts on July 10, 2012, 04:08:38 PM
Lots of pretty good players have come on and said hand 1 is a fold but I think it is the easiest shove of the 3. Who overlimps aces?


Still fairly feasible from utg+1, i witnessed this play comparitively often and also never saw anybody do it without KK+ whilst in Vegas. We have no blockers to anything decent and i think it's the clearest fold out of the lot.



Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: cambridgealex on July 10, 2012, 08:58:51 PM
Lots of pretty good players have come on and said hand 1 is a fold but I think it is the easiest shove of the 3. Who overlimps aces?


Still fairly feasible from utg+1, i witnessed this play comparitively often and also never saw anybody do it without KK+ whilst in Vegas. We have no blockers to anything decent and i think it's the clearest fold out of the lot.



+1


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: Rickie Belfield on July 11, 2012, 12:57:45 AM
  • 1. I usually fold here.
  • 2. Maybe you were incredibly right but I always shove.
  • 3. I think I'd consider calling and check/folding missed flops or shoving. I don't think I'm ever folding here though.


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: AlexMartin on July 11, 2012, 02:23:41 AM
cant see me folding any of them tbh


Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: LonOhRay on July 11, 2012, 05:47:34 AM
1. Call. Over limping with aces very rare imo. Very good chance of a medium pair or AK here.
2. All in. This one is easiest imo.
3. Fold

Haven't read past this but it has to be a level



Opposite to all of these, calling in hand 1 is obv worst option - KK 40%, AA 55%, something different 5%.

In 2 I hate it, but never ever fold Kings, snapfolding JJ here QQ it gets closer but still folding in this MTT. - If opener is as described he's nutted, if 3! is as described he's JJ+ AK+

3 Get this in resteal is going to have a LOT of Ax, broadways and all pairs





Title: Re: WS $1k -3 nitty preflop folds, which do you agree with?
Post by: Leatherman on July 11, 2012, 07:17:35 AM
1. All in
2. All in
3. All in

 ;flushy;