blonde poker forum

Can people post their football bets for the season here (once they are on) please?

Haven't managed to get RP Big Kick Off yet but would like opinions of some blondes too and post thoughts about your own teams that others might not have picked up on.

TheChipPrince, Shrewdies & Chompy get posting.

I've already missed Rich's Nugent bet.

good idea

My team Watford are interesting this year, but I don't think I can recommend a bet yet at 40-1.

They have Zola as manager and a link up with Udinese to get loan players from.  Almunia in goal from Arsenal is a big upgrade on last year and the new arrivals Pudil, Abdi and Vydra are all multi million pound full internationals who would likely get into premier league sides.

The two things that put me off

A) the foreign players may not settle
B) Zola has stuck with a lot of the old guard in pre-season which makes me suspect that the new guys are injured or not match fit.

I think they may start slow but would be a good buy on the spreads after 10 games or so.  The new guys will have bedded in by then and there are other players on tap if they don't work out.

Might be worth considering in a match bet with other mid table sides.

Thoughts on these?

Vardy top leicester gs 5/1
Jutkiewicz top boro gs 5/1
Morison top norwich gs 4/1
Maguire top Wednesday gs 5/1

Locking up money for 9 months is so unappealing.

I backed Man Utd when they went 7-2 a couple of months before that flipping last minute goal. Couldn't really be doing with depositing my hard earned cash in a zero interest account at the Bank of Ladbrokes for the season.

Markets where there's green-out value do appeal tho. Who is likely to start well? Who's starting the season injured so that their strike partner will be better value for top scorer until they're back?

Or is everyone here more partial to the long term bets?

'kinell. Have really enjoyed the last couple of months without football, are we really at that point already FFS?

Liverpoo have a really tough start to their league programme and are often overbet by their supporters so I would say that there is definitely an opportunity for an early greengage there if one were to lay low and green a lot higher a few weeks in.

Yes footy season already :-) praise the lord

West Brom to be relegated is my first one..

Great shout, that.

I'm a spurs fan so can hardly comment on fans who say it's definitely their year, but Liverpool are a joke. They'll do well for top six.

What about @rs£nal? They have all but lost RVP to united and Song wants out, too. Lots of different sorts of markets but how about the handicap market?

13-1 for Wenger and his wanderers to win the league with a 12pt headstart on betfair. That looks like a good lay to me, albeit with my reservations on locking up money, plus the fact you're locking up more for the lay.

 >:( Should be 8 months of the year max  >:(

Had one very tiny bet so far.

80/1 Fleetwood Town to be relegated.

Wenger did an absolute miracle last year to get our squad into third place in the league which when combined with the miracle of RVP having a virtual injury-free season for the first time in six years would have been an astonomically priced double.

Not only that but we had four or five weeks in the middle of the season with all four of our full-backs out with fairly to very serious injuries. And that occurred after we had lost Cesc and Nasri in an acrimonious and turbulent pre-season.

We have had had a very productive summer in the transfer market with Giroud, Podolski and Cazorla already secured, all proven international payers in their prime, and two of them just happen to be left-footed attackers ;). Song is under contract until 2015 so if anyone wants him he won't be going on the cheap and we have a ready-made replacement in Coquelin and Frimpong not far behind.

Our squad looks to have some real depth and experience for the upcoming season for the first time in a few years. I'm optimistic.

Has Barton gone there for the entire season then?

Oh God you're not one of them are you?

Do you not remember my soul-reading you as a spud when you first started posting on tikay's diary a few months ago after you made a disparaging comment about AW?

RVP alone > Podolski and Giroud together though.

I couldn't be with Arse, Spurs, Newcastle at current prices for the Top 4 with stolen money.

Kinda like Lolerpool at the price. I love Rodgers and the way he plays football. If Suarez stats well, he could be unstoppable.

Think there could be a real surprise in the Top 4 this year.

Everton maybe? Sunderland at a huge price?

Where you get these prices Jose?

Does anyone know roughly how long into the season the bookies keep each way 1/4 1,2,3,4 on the Golden Boot?

Ah yes.

I have said a lot worse about him than that, mind.

Tbf as for a soul read, spotting the spurs fan who singles out the demon headmaster isn't exactly calling down a triple-barrel with jack high!  ;)

I'm sure we could do this all season, so I'm going to put my sword down for now.

It is difficult for me not to look at the markets without lily white spectacles, but I really believe your boys massively overachieved last season. The squad looks more solid and together now than it has for a few seasons, but I don't think it has anywhere near the quality.

Podolski will be interesting as the Prem game will go one of two ways for him. He should fit in well to your system and obv is a quality footballer. He has huge boots to fill tho.

Frimpong is not a footballer. He looked at home in that wolves midfield with Carl Henry.

We'll both finish above Liverpool tho IMO.

Think the end of season improvements Liverpool showed and new manager could make them really underrated, still not sure where to back them though.

I got tipped Northampton to grab promotion this season, by a scout of theirs.

They have a small squad but good quality for this level.

Like Boothroyd as a manager.

Shocked he's dropped so low in the leagues.

Wouldn't be surprised if he built a good team at this level.

Ive bought Reading's points at 36.

And Barca at 7/2 for Champions league.

Don't really like Jutziewicz for top Boro.  It isn't a bad price as such but I watched a lot of Boro last year and he just didn't look particularly good and all things being equal Curtis Main will get a fair amount of time on the field and if it is as sub it will probably be at the Jukes expense.

Victor. They have every championship team so let me know if there are any you fancy.
Considering Ings and Kermorgant and Ebanks-Blake too.

Thanks for the feedback. The few times I'd seen him I thought he looked a decent player. Was mostly for Cov tho so easy to stand out. Wanted to get against Emnes really but will leave it as I didn't know about Main so there iss competition for places I wasn't aware of.

The Vardy bet will depend on if Beckford leaves. I keep hearing he is being shopped around, his wages are too high, his attitude is wrong but no idea of the truth of it really

Vardy has played pre-season friendlies up front with either Nugent or Beckford, on the shoulder of the last defender and looked really sharp in the two I saw. Obviously his goalscoring record is special lower down the pyramid

At worst, Vardy starts the season on the bench

Vardy played wide of 3 at Fleetwood with licence to cut inside/diagonally at all times.  Coming from deeper he's dangerous, was hoping he would be a lot bigger than 25's for t/s, think he's v good.

Link of victor chandler top team scorer odds? can't find it anywhere on their site!

found it!

vicente 14/1 is crazy odds. he took the pen v reading in the friendly. ashley barnes missed our last pen v reading(in league) so looks like he could take over. takes every set piece, and has the best free kick in the champ on him. been playing upfront in pre season too (but CMS, Hoskins) injured....

I'm on Huddersfield top promoted club. 11/4 with stanjames. Made some solid signings and so far managed to keep rhodes. They underperformed last season. Don't think there is much between the promoted teams. Charlton ran away with the league but weren't exactly flying at the end of the season. Wednesday have just about made the necessary signings but don't think we've done much above that.
Camel and ChipPrince reckon it's a good price too.

So far, had plenty, with few more to come this week I think I've spotted.

12 of 30 have shortened since placed, none lengthed, as always good value losers :D

Hnadicaps taken are best available, Aldershot for example are +24 with Bet365 but theres around 30 more points spread over the other teams in the divison (quite complicated and prepared to be proven wrong btw).


ANTE POST BETS

PREMIERSHIP

Borini over 6.5 Prem goals.  5/6  BetVictor  3rd August  NOW 4/7
EW Lambert Top Scorer 80/1 Ladbrokes 3rd Aug
EW Southampton Prem Handicap +46   16/1 Stan James 6th Aug   NOW 12/1
Pavel Pogrebnyak Top Reading Scorer 9/4  BetVictor 7th Aug  NOW 7/4

CHAMPIONSHIP

Watford promotion from Championship 12/1 PaddyPower 1st July  NOW 10/1
Wolves top midlands side 9/4  BetVictor  22nd July (Leicester/Brum/Derby/Pboro)
Luke Varney Top Leeds Scorer 12/1  BetVictor 7th Aug
Benik Afobe Top Bolton Scorer 10/1  BetVictor 7th Aug  NOW 3/1 (!!)
Bjorn Sigurdsson Top Wolves Scorer 16/1  BetVictor 7th Aug



LEAGUE 1

EW Mike Grella Top Scorer L1 80/1 BetVictor 8th Aug
Yeovil promotion from L1 33/1 StanJames  1st July  NOW 25/1
EW Yeovil L1 Handicap +29 Betfred 10th Aug



LEAGUE 2

Fleetwood to win L2 10/1 Betfred 29th May   NOW 6/1
Fleetwood to win L2 9/1 Betfred  7th June   NOW 6/1
EW Bradford to win L2  22/1  BetVictor  22nd July   NOW 20/1
EW Aldershot L2 Handicap +22 18/1 Stan James 7th Aug   NOW 14/1
EW Aldershot L2 Handicap +22 18/1 Betfred 10th Aug (£65 EW overall)
EW AFC Dons L2 Handicap +25 18/1 Stan James 8th Aug
EW York L2 Handicap +23 18/1 Betfred 10th Aug
EW Craig Reid Top Scorer L2 66/1 Stan James 7th Aug   NOW 50/1
EW David Ball Top Scorer L2 25/1 Ladbrokes 5th Aug
EW Nahki Wells Top Scorer L2 40/1 BetVictor 8th Aug



BLUE SQUARE PREM

EW Woking Blue Sq Prem Handicap +40 Will Hill 7th Aug
EW Tamworth Blue Sq Prem Handicap +36 Betfred 10th Aug




BLUE SQUARE NORTH

EW Altrincham to win BSN  16/1  Bet365 5th July




BLUE SQUARE SOUTH

EW Eastbourne Borough to win BSS  33/1  Bet365 12th July



EUROPE

EW PSG to win Champions League  25/1  Bet365 12th July   NOW 18/1
EW Marco Reus Top Bundesliga Scorer 18/1 Ladbrokes 7th Aug
EW Nils Petersen Top Bundesliga Scorer 66/1 Ladbrokes 7th Aug
Man City/Borussia Dortmund/Real Madrid/Juventus  25/1 Stan James 7th Aug

I am not quite sure on Maquire for us.

I watched the West Brom game and he didn't look impressive and was by far to selfish at times, I think the whole team clicked onto his selfishness at times. I still wonder why Derby let him go if he was any good? I don't reccomend the bet, for sure.

Torres at 10/1 top goalscorr

For those of you that don't understand betting if Waz bets £10 on this, he will lose £10.

(an old joke, but an apt one here)

Bit harsh. 10-1 for top Chelsea goalscorer looks like it might make a small profit. Not sure enough to back it heavily tho.

"Borini over 6.5 Prem goals.  5/6  BetVictor  "

Blimey that's a great bet.  1/2 shot for me.

All about being against Madine. His price is too short for somebody with his suspension record and injury problems. Will probably turn out we'll buy a new striker and he may be the value but Maguire will be first XI for now. Selfishness is a positive for top scorer bets too. I don't want him passing to Madine. Never really got a chance at Derby and sometimes different people work in different places. Ipswich let Jordan Rhodes go once upon a time.

Sunderland's squad looks very light me notwithstanding the imminent purchase of Fletcher.

If there are no young full-backs coming through that defence seems to be aging and paceless.

I've always been a big MoN fan but this year I'm tempted to dabble on them at a big price for the drop.

I know it's down to the time left on respective contracts but thee fact Fletcher is going to cost 3/4 of RVP is pretty ridic.

Agree on Sunderland. Looks a weak squad, and the price paid for Fletcher reflects a real keenness to get some options up top where they looked to be really lacking


For those who were discussing Vardy at LCFC, he started the final pre-season friendly up front with Beckford v Sunderland, same combination up front for the League Cup tonight

Chatter that this will persist into the start of the league campaign, Nugent on the bench

At the moment my only plays are;

Charlie Austin EW Top Championship 25s
Giroud +8.5 goals (shamelessly nicked from Dubai) at 5/6
QPR top London club group B v WH, Fulham 11/4 (long gone)

Love the Borini bet....

Think will be backing Leicester - think 8s is short enough but like Pearson and think hell get it right thi year

Will be throwing MK Dons, Man Utd, Rotherham and Luton in for a speculative row of houses bet with decent EW returns

Premiership goalscorer - sure there is some value there, but too many unknowns for me at this stage re: RVP, Caroll, the way Chelsea will play re Hazard....and Tevez.  Think I'm going to watch and bet a few weeks in.

Yeah, got on Sunderland for releagtion at 12s about 3 weeks ago. Missed the 14s by about a day, fml. Usually a big MoN fan but the squad looks really woeful and spending possibly 14mill on Fletcher, wtf!?

Also on Jelavic top Prem Scorer 33/1 e/w.

Nugent Top Cship Scorer 50/1 e/w (fml i think though. Didnt sell Beckford and Beckford and Vardy been playing well together pre season)

Will be having some sort of 4 league acca too, undecided yet. Had City, Reading, Charlton and fkin Crawley (who decided they would be top at Xmas? and then sell all best players) last season for £14k. No good and no i didnt do it e/w. Ha

rumours picking up we are bringing in beckford.

can't see it myself, but Gus loves him.

knocked Cardiff out of the cup last night.

Nottingham Forest to get promoted to Premiership 5/1 Betfair.

Doesn't take pens which is a massive factor, Rooney scored 9 pens last season (It may of been 8 as I think Giggs may of took one when he was injured) but he still wasn't top goalscorer.

So manure have paid £24M for RVP and have him on a four year contract I believe.

I would assume that he will be on c£200K per week for the duration of this contract which works out at roughly £10M pa meaning £40M + £24M for the fee = £65M.

That's one hell of an investment.

Arune Kone 10/1 top Wigan scorer, wow.  Ninth highest scorer in La Liga, 100 odd goals for various Euro teams last 5/6 years 10+ goals wins this, massive price.

They Connor Sammon who's never scored and Di Santo, with a couple of decent wingers as his competition.

7/4 Skybet. Betvictor laid me £60 @ 10/1, tanked it though.

Took a bit more, pretty happy.

deece, on.

FML missed the price. Looks huge.

I've finally put my trades on after several weeks of thought.  They are all on the spreads.  I normally get killed on the spreads, but seem to win generally on long term footie (3 seasons out of 4)

Premier:
Bought Reading, QPR
Sold Sunderland, Stoke, Spurs
Bought Sunderland, Stoke on the relegation indicies

Championship
Bought Leicester, Watford, Bolton
Sold Blackpool, Middlesboro
Bought Leicester on promotion indicies

Div 1
Bought Preston, Crewe, Crawley
Sold MK Dons, Sheff Utd, Notts Co
Bought Preston on promotion indicies

Div 2
Bought Northampton, Aldershot, Wimbledon
Bought Northampton, Aldershot on promotion indicies

What do you mean by bought Wimbledon? I hope it's nothing to do with us getting lots of points - we're shocking!

Yes he means bought the point.  Probably at about 55 at a guess.

bad result last night eh

Horrendous result. Hopefully we can bounce back but I am seriously worried for our chances this season...

Yup I bought their points.  At half time I was wondering the wisdom of this seeing as they were 4-0 down to what I consider to be one of the weakest teams.

I bought them at 56.5 and they are now trading at 54-56, as they managed to luckily beat Chesterfield in the first game.

Might bail this one if there are any more performances like the Burton game though

Pretty bad night for my selections all in all!  My mid value is down £500 this morning :(

aftertiming, but this looks like a Championship team, yes?

    01 Given
    04 Vlaar
    06 Clark
    32 Baker
    34 Lowton
    08 El Ahmadi
    10 N'Zogbia
    25 Bannan
    31 Herd
    09 Bent
    23 Delfouneso

Looks poor, Lambert has a lot of work to do. I unsuprisingly think he will sort it out, might take some time.

How much will you lose when we finish the season on 3 points...?  :'(

I had noted that Kone might be going to play in the mickey mouse cup after xmas, but forgot about it until reminded yesterday by dave on Tikay's thread.

Given he's not gonna be playing again for a month there is scope for his cushion to be eroded and it might be worth having a hedge while he's still 4/11 BV and 1/4 with Sid

I had £50 at 10's so not great Di Santo scored on sat but he still only has 4, Kone has 6.

No Wigan signing would get 7 so its a straight shoot out, Gomez got a bizarre hat trick in that it was the only PL game he scored in.

Di Santo has 3 games approx, I'll be happy if he scores 1 more in those 3.

FWIW I've let it ride.

Blimey forgot about this.

Someone got £100 on Kone at 9/1 for me.

Unfortunately we've had a big falling out since he put this bet on for me.

I better send out an olive branch in plenty of time before the end of the season in case it cops!

Still miles from the end of the season, so hopefully won't put 2 and 2 together then!

I just chucked a pony on Di Santo @ 8s with Stan James, so I cover my bet and a couple quid in profit should he decide to do a 'Gomez' in the month Kone is away.