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PokerStars Hand #90698662807: Tournament #654110283, $20+$5+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2012/12/13 17:19:52 WET [2012/12/13 12:19:52 ET]
Table '654110283 2' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: MD IACONI (1530 in chips)
Seat 2: flo444 (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: cheese9 (1470 in chips)
Seat 4: OnetimeJoker (1530 in chips)
Seat 5: gkamei09 (1470 in chips)
Seat 6: Mt.Spewmore (1470 in chips)
Seat 7: MeliSWE (1650 in chips)
Seat 8: Peeeedor (1480 in chips)
Seat 9: flopped6810 (1410 in chips)
Peeeedor: posts small blind 10
flopped6810: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mt.Spewmore [Jh Jd]
MD IACONI: folds
flo444: folds
cheese9: folds
OnetimeJoker: raises 40 to 60
gkamei09: folds
Mt.Spewmore: calls 60
MeliSWE: calls 60
Peeeedor: folds
flopped6810: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [5c 7h Td]
flopped6810: checks
OnetimeJoker: bets 130
Mt.Spewmore:

OR is 18/14 over 300 77% cbet, other two are unknowns.

On the face of it the standard is to just call, but after some discussion and a little deeper thought I think you can make a decent case for all 3 options. Thoughts?

well Im not calling pre to fold that board

call call call atm - obv run out depending

Ok so fold, he's raised pre on level 1 with a solid stats and therefore most likely a strong range, then led into the pot 4 way. def not unreasonable.

Flat and evaluate turn would be the standard play.

Raise as some sort of backward pot control? Freezes him and takes the initiative away to stop him barreling us and putting us in a spot where we're left just guessing? Maybe not so likely at this early stage where he's much less likely to barrel down. What are your thoughts on raising?

If you fold here, fold pre surely? Like what do you actually want. You do have the fourth best starting hand.

I like flatting a lot. However, in the late night TKO 27 people go mental, so maybe raise can be considered. Will go to ponder.

you can still try to set mine even if you want to fold no, so no, dont fold pre :)

i call flop, fold every turn, sometimes even raise some if i feel funky :)

gl being good if he barrells 3 streets after betting into 3 people


i agree flat and eval turn pre discussion with some people was my standard and thats what I did in this hand.

Someone suggested that raising realises our equity in the hand and allows us to win the pot now a higher % than calling does. To quote :  "it's very tough to get another street of value anyway from worse...so picking up the pot right there is pretty good since we just said we likely don't get a ton of value on future streets anyway and bad cards can come off, spot can get tricky, etc". It makes alot of sense imo. We can also fold to any more aggression as we rarely have the best hand

edit : there was obv more explanation but im not gona post whole skype chat obv

but by your same logic, if he has AA/KK and the run out is safe (ish) he will ck call river OOP, so we can just ck back if unsure, so v unlikley to face a river v bet from 1 pair hands IMO

he will def not c/call the river with AA/KK. I expect him to go for 3 streets with KK+ 2 pairs and sets depending on if someone calls behind me etc. In my mind he has a really strong range for cbetting this flop 4 way and JJ just doesnt do well vs it.

By calling we allow other people to call behind us and not really know where we are at all and end up folding every turn card.

By raising as i said we realise our equity and win the 370 in the middle a dec % of the time straight away which is 30% increase to our stack. If he calls or someone behind does anything then we can pretty safely shut down as im pretty confident he is just gona b/f AT otf and its pretty hard to get value from even the top of the range we are beating on later streets unless we get a super favourable run out. To summarise, he folds out all we beat and calls everything were beat by, which on the face of it sounds really bad technically but is preserving our chips and realising our equity now such a bad thing in tournaments? Obv in cash this is just a slam dunk call but MTT i think stack preservation is pretty huge here.

By folding we just show off our massive vagina and play pretty weak but as muckthenuts said, I don't think its really unreasonable considering his range and the ickiness of the stacks on later streets.

i agree with guy i think its too thin to bet 3 here with KK if you're the villain.

Not saying he wont do it ofc.

doubt your ever winning here.  Can only beat AT - IF he opens this. Good fold.

what comp is this? 27TKO? or Hyper or what?

27tko i assume

confirmed TKO

kinda makes me wanna go for the vagina flop fold option. though I totally understand how we should be able to rep such strength by raising and barreling. would just maybe rather have some bd equity rather than 2 outs to improve if need be.

130 into 370 in this tournament and i just can't see myself folding. We can always snap fold turn to any action.

130 into 240*

we're calling 130 into 370 now - 77% c-bet and we have an overpair to the board and the possibility that the pot will be built further by the two unknowns coming along, we could be calling 130 to win 630.

I'm not v good online but JJ is ahead here enough of the time to make the call worthwhile and get more information on the turn (or pray for a J on the turn)

Ahhh my mistake!

This really is very interesting, something that would seem an obvious call on flop but actually is much more complicated than that. I think all 3 options are possible but actually calling now seems the worst. Not doing great vs his range cbetting into 3 players and also you still have 2 players behind. Calling definately is the toughest option. I'm liking the raise option best I think.
Raise<Fold<Call.... maybe....still undecided.

Raising here, folding to any 3 bet.

Results? I certainly aint folding. I like the clickback and re evaluate

I called flop and folded turn (obv) but as soon as the hand played out i just wondered if there was anything different i could do so posted it in a skype chat got a few different opinions ie raising, so i posted on here.

It's hard to construct a really well rounded range given we don't know what your peeling, i'd rather be raising with a better equity hand than turning JJ into a bluff. And when he cbets 4 way then bets the turn i'm always folding and feeling dirty so may well do what you call 'the vagina fold'. Don't think I do that play enough tbh. <3vag

Yeah i agree, not the best hand to do this with. So i think it's not worth fighting for the pot at t20 when he just has AA/KK/QQ/TT too high a % of the time in this spot (which is hardly ever folding flop in a $27) when our hand has such little equity vs that range. A heads up pot where his cbet range can be wider, or if we held like QJdd i like clicking it back a lot more.

Personally i think fold > call  > raise.

Great thread. So easy to overlook spots like this and write them off as "standard" when we call flop fold turn everytime without thinking about it.

Just thinking out loud a bit, muckthenuts just posted about them never folding QQ-AA in a $27, which is of course reasonable. Can we then extend this to say that since we are now implying he is on average going to be a weak player with poor fundamentals, he might be cbetting this flop with a wider range than we are giving him credit for?

You see a lot of what I would call "bad" cbets at this level, people betting in this spot with AK, QJ, or hands with even less equity perhaps. He could also be betting his smaller pocket pairs, or suited connectors that have paired up like 78s or T9s.

So what you could conclude is that folding can never be correct - since if he's good enough to be cbetting this board "correctly" and have a strong range that crushes us, he's good enough to fold QQ-AA by the river? And if he's bad enough to be cbetting with too weak a range, we should call and fold turn, as is "standard"?

So folding would just be an incorrect option when we don't know whether to raise or just call.

Make sense? I'm not saying I agree with this btw, just thinking outside the box...

Yeah everything you said makes sense Alex. I don't think an 18/14 semi reg is gona just be betting AK/QJ type hands here. He can very well have some suited connectors/88-99 type hands. Im not sure what he does with 66 so its kinda hard to judge. Which makes the spot more interesting i guess. Im still not sold on which option is best.

Get JB itt ffs. <3

Agree!

Feeling like causing some mischief this afternoon, some #realjohnblacktweets on the way I reckon. Care to join?

would love to

am looking through his TR from the Vic for inspiration (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56559.msg1683280#msg1683280) so much material in there, might use actual quotes from it lol

Good use of inequalities imo, backs up your statement well