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PokerStars Hand #91267758543: Tournament #661405311, $80+$8 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2012/12/25 1:42:48 WET [2012/12/24 20:42:48 ET]
Table '661405311 6' 5-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: skipjuhhh (8881 in chips)
Seat 2: LadyDoDo91 (28062 in chips)
Seat 3: gosuoposum1 (19365 in chips)
Seat 4: Demonic16 (10571 in chips)
Seat 5: BallinSoHard (3621 in chips)
skipjuhhh: posts the ante 75
LadyDoDo91: posts the ante 75
gosuoposum1: posts the ante 75
Demonic16: posts the ante 75
BallinSoHard: posts the ante 75
gosuoposum1: posts small blind 400
Demonic16: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Demonic16 [X X]
BallinSoHard: raises 2746 to 3546 and is all-in
skipjuhhh: folds
LadyDoDo91: folds
gosuoposum1 has timed out
gosuoposum1: folds
gosuoposum1 is sitting out

Not played a hand yet and been tight 2nd to last table, 88 4max turbo with no guarantee. FT with 5 left, payouts as follows,
1.05
808
582
376
266.96
We are calling 2746 to win, 7867. ICM much of a factor here. Gosuop is decent winning reg, LadyDodo is a total whale, skip/ballin not played a hand in the 16 or so on the final

Calling range here?

how can ICM be a factor when you cant bust and you are in the BB and the guy is all in?

its impossible to work out

as for calling range - stove it, simple maths job

Any pair, Ax+ K7o+ K5s+ Q9o+ Q8s+ J8s+ JTo+ strong suited connectors. Don't think ICM is that much of a factor payouts are v flat

Possibly wider.

Maybe not icm spot but when we double him its obviously a lot harder to ladder. I've sent this with title to a few people and unsurprisingly blonde PHA is the first place to actually care about the title...

Also, with 2/1 we can call with virtually atc, but TL offers a range that is tighter. WHy is this if icm isn't a factor?

ICM was the first thing I took into consideration when I read the hand, though thats probably not much relief to you as Im a massive whale :D.

Think Toms about spot on though still, maybe take out the JTo/J9+J8s

Not sure what you mean caring about the title?

If you are bothered by my comment, I apologise, but the point is this isn't a specific spot where you can apply icm. There are lots of factors about calling off and chip preservation etc.

I'm not calling anywhere near as wide as tl900 but I'm not passing any A kq pairs maybe as low as QJ for me? Would be very dependant on how he had been playing as to how low I'm calling ( all of this would obv dictate the range you plug into stove)

Just felt like you were loling and being like ICM isn't a factor here you FISH

Obviously wasn't :) Don't mean to be so shirty either. What would you describe this as when we can see a direct link between cEV and $ev?

It is obviously slightly relevant, but I think folding like K5s is a big mistake. It may well be wider than the range I assigned. Calling and losing is kind of annoying and means we need to find good spots quicker.

I would def fold the very worst offsuit hands. s00ted cards ftw.

Guess I could be wrong here actually! Not sure how to do it backwards.

I had in mind, we can't bust and therefore it doesn't affect us! However I guess busting him obv works for us.

Dunno, trying to do too many things at once,  - think I'm wrong having looked again!

You are not calling 2746 to win 7867. You are calling 2746 to win 5121, which is the size of the pot once it reaches you.

There is really no reason to use anything other than Pokerstove here. Its not an ICM heavy situation as you don't bust when you lose. You are getting slightly worse than 2/1 (1.86/1) so you need 35% equity vs his shoving range to call.

Key in some ranges and see how certain hands fair vs that range. I would start with a 30% range and go up in 10% increments. Look for 35% equity or better and that will show you what you should be calling with. I would even take a close spot here as the benefits of busting him outweigh the negatives of taking a small hit to your stack.

that was my original thought! Can we factor in that busting the villain wins us $

When villain busts everyone in the tourney wins some money. But you get a fair few chips out of it should you call and win.

ICM is tournament equity, not chip EV. So calling AK on the bubble of a 6 max SNG would be great for chip EV, but it could be a train wreck call for tournament equity in certain situations. Thats an example of a super ICM heavy spot where the risk/reward is shifted drastically because of the ICM constraints.

I don't really see any ICM constraints for villain in the above example. So I would feel super happy about just playing chip EV, which is very simple to work out.

ICM has some relevance here, in fact it can be applied to all tourney situations where $ev does not equal cev. In this particular situation the force is somewhat weak as we can't bust and ICM means our last chip is worth a lot more than our 9000th chip etc.

Stoving it with appropriate ranges and then maybe chopping off a few of the weakest hands seems appropriate here.

Sorry was rather battered when i originallly posted in fb group and c+p'd over here when people were a little unsure. Its clearly not an ICM heavy situation, but I and others that posted on fb felt we had to make considerations given everyone elses stack sizes. With us being 3/5, two big stacks giving away any chips here can really hamper us. Is there a poker phrase coined for ICM Factor? So Doobs would say Heavy ICM factor, whereas I would say, Small ICM factor. Would this make sense to people?



Hand 0 is his range- 30% of hands, not top 30, but a range he might shove.
Hand 1 is a variety of calling ranges. So as long as he shoves 30% of hands, we can call with virtually atc, as we knew before, getting virtually 2/1. This is what i was getting at, and why i don't think its a lolstove spot as people have indicated. I wanted to know is he shoving top 30%? What do we think someone who has been extremely nitty so far is shoving? Has this changed? What do people expect from randoms?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  12,042,843  games     5.154 secs     2,336,601  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    61.506%     60.27%    01.24%           7258521       148777.50   { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    38.494%     37.26%    01.24%           4487215       148778.50   { random }


---

   8,606,765  games     3.679 secs     2,339,430  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    59.923%     58.54%    01.38%           5038672       118916.00   { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    40.077%     38.70%    01.38%           3330677       118921.00   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T3o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o }


---

   5,231,224  games     2.250 secs     2,324,988  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    57.709%     56.09%    01.63%           2934049        85045.00   { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    42.291%     40.67%    01.63%           2127610        85051.00   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T7o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o }


---

  21,571,885  games     9.342 secs     2,309,129  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    56.275%     54.45%    01.82%          11746468       393241.00   { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    43.726%     41.90%    01.82%           9039498       393250.00   { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o, 87o }


---

  28,928,435  games    12.415 secs     2,330,119  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    54.518%     52.44%    02.08%          15168992       602465.50   { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    45.482%     43.40%    02.08%          12555072       602472.00   { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Villian should be shoving atc in this spot, pretty much last hope of him having any FE as next hand he BB and getting called by anything. For that reason would put his range as much higher  than 30%

Villain here is shoving/should be shoving any 2 here, so i'm calling it off with almost any 2. I'd probably bin 23o, 72o and a few other bottom 10-15%hands. Never ever folding K2o here or basically anything other than lower unconnected stuff. Dont think ICM is that big in this specific spot, the guy is jamming so few bbs and even if we double him we're just one of 3 short stacks... no much of an issue. Chip ev wise, calling off with any 2.

All of this.