blonde poker forum

And finally. So we're getting toward the end of the session now, 5am is approaching and we're still losing.

We're playing £240, covered by both villains. We raise the CO £4 with  6d 4d

Both blinds call, we've history with both, see me as one of them pesky internet kidz.

Anyway. Flop (£12)  Ad 8d 3d

c/c and we bet £9. Call call.

Turn (£39)  Js

Villain 1 is capable of holding on with lone  Kd so we bet £26, he calls, bb folds.

River (£91)  7s

He tanks then bets £55. I have basically the worst flush possible but John, like most people at gala does weird shit, and I dunno why he wouldn't try c/r'ing the river as I'm almost always betting. You?

Just call i guess. Does he ever bet call AJ with Jd? I dunno

Fwiw i dont think folding is an option vs described villian.

Doesn't bet/CALL, might bet/fold

EDIT: He's the type of guy to 3bet me with AJo here

In my experience when weak players take a c/c, c/c, donk river line it often means they flopped the non-vulnerable nuts (i.e. they do it with flopped full houses, or flopped sets on dry boards, or flopped flushes - but not usually with stuff like a flopped set on a wet board, since they would c/r here at some point to protect their hand). So readless I'd assume he flopped a bigger flush over half the time. But weak players also do things like c/c all way with draws then donk river when they missed as a bluff, and they do lots of other random stuff too. So I'd call and expect to win the pot a little less than half the time.

This is based purely on my personal experience of facing this line from weaker players.

Cheers for this pal.

Result -> Folded, he showed T5dd

Flop runout is wrong btw if result is correct.

I know we have a shit hand, but go bigger pre in these games. it's pretty easy to dictate the action so we should aim to control the pot by making it bigger, even though it might seem counter-intuitive.

Basically if they see you as an annoying pre-flop spaz, then all they're going to do is call with garbage hands oop and c/fold some flops and most turns, so we make loads of money in these games by chipping away at stacks with our superior barreling tekkers.

If every time you make it £5 instead of £4, then £13 flop instead of £9, that's an extra fiver you're making every time they fold the turn, which is most of the time. When we have a real one we can bet the turn smaller and start picking up additional chips there. Exploitable as anything but most of these guys didn't come to the casino to exploit you, they came to make some good hands and natter about the valets.

Anyway that was somewhat of a digression. With regards to this specific hand versus this specific villain, I appreciate that sometimes he's going to bet here with a missed flush draw and a rivered pair as some sort of clueless merge, but it feels like a fold a lot of the time even though this is very hard to do when you're losing.

Honeybadger is spot on as always, but with regards to this particular villain: he is going to give you a little less credit for a hand than a normal reg in these games, so even though you think he should check 'cause you're "always betting," he's afraid of you checking behind because you "never have anything" so is desperately trying to get a call. This line is his idea of THE TARP.

Soz  5d was  3d. Will talk to you about the rest when I see you probs?

Just feels weird opening for 5x pre with no limpers, it is live though I guess :/

I would go for the 4x pre from the CO. I get what Sean's saying but the decreased spr does reduce our edge plus increases variance, whereas with the lead/a smaller psr we can manipulate the size of the pot to our advantage when we want to in these soft games anyway. In general live i start opening slightly smaller the better my position gets.

Agree this seems like a pretty annoying fold. Sizing too seems very valuey.

folding seems pretty absurd

Pre?  :kiss:

You get some good advice here, just surprised nobody has mentioned quitting the game. There is always tomorrow.
I'm fully aware this is PHA so my view is as follows in terms of nut lines to take.

1 Quit the game.

2 Fold Pre.

Big fan of Tommy Angelo so will quote the man regarding folding Reciprocality.
 

"I'd take the next hand. And that'd be one bad quitting decision. After that hand, I'd have the option to quit, but no, I'd take another hand — I'd make another quitting mistake. That's two quitting mistakes in four minutes. And I had just begun to not quit.

In time, my blood started to clot, and I got a little bit better at quitting, and then a little more better, and then one day I realized that every session of cash-game poker I ever play will end on a quit, so I really should continue forever to work on getting better at quitting, and a few years later I realized that if I wanted to quit well every session, then I'd have to be sharp at the very end of every session, since that's always when the quitting happens, and a few years after that I realized that no action is an island, that everyone else's sessions always end on a quit too, and that the real reason there is money to be made by quitting well is because sometimes my opponents don't. Reciprocality."

no-one has considered raising? We got £136 behind his donk, not saying we should raise im just shocked no-one has thought about it.

In game I know my fist instinct would be to ship and I'd prolly sit there for a little bit and try convince myself to just call.

Never, ever, ever fold, ever. I don't think you even need to consider it.

Why not?

we have a flush?! Why we would ever fold is beyond me, everyone wants to be a hero.

not looking to be a hero. definitely not showing anyone if/when i fold here.

in game i probably call and would not be surprised to be shown better - this has to be a leak.

I guess I can be persuaded into thinking this is a call, but I'll need more than "we have a flush."

Wow we must be playing a totally different game.

Why is it whenever I play live NLHE I have to pot/pot/double pot to get anyone to fold 88 on QJ35T yet I read blonde and everyone wants to fold trips and flushes.

He's done nothing except chk/call two streets on a board he can legit c/call lots of Ax Xd type hands and could also play a set this way and AxJd we can rarely have a better hand and I think it's safe to say we're not expected to have a hand this good very often.

Folding seems really bad jamming is defo better than folding (might be better than calling also) and I don't think it's close

Not the same thing, cos inexperienced players will call too much. Conversely when it is they who go for value its a hellllllll of a lot thinner.

In retrospect i do think saying fold was a bit hasty in this partic spot but i don't think it's ridic by any means either. We basically just have a bluff catcher. Really few combos of 2prs and none of sets imo.

Basically this. My read on John is something that's improved 10 fold since we first started playing. Realistically I have the worst flush possible vs him and knowing his game he'd 3bet pre with a hand A10+, the way the hand played out, seeing previous hands he's played etc he's pretty polarised imo. So he's either got dry  Kd or we're beat.

He's NEVER EVER EVER value betting with a hand worse than mine on the river. We could play this hand 1m times and if he's got a set he's c-raise/calling the flop.

Once again, I'm stuck in a spot where I'm being donk lead into and it's confusing me, that's the only reason I posted this hand tbh as I felt like I'd get a lot of diff feedback on the river line.

I didn't show fwiw, I asked if I could see after I folded, must've looked pretty tilted as normally he doesn't show/give breaks like this.

Of course if you have some strong knowledge/read on this opponent then you might consider folding. You said:


Well that is the sort of read that might allow you to find a fold with your hand. Maybe. But two things to note. First, this is the sort of stuff that noone else can advise you on (apart from others who know this opponent well too), since it is all based on a personal read. Second, you must be very careful about just how much you modify your play based on reads. You are getting insanely good pot odds given his small river donk and so only need to be winning ~27% of the time to make this a break even call. Weak players take strange lines all the time, and they often do turn up with hands that surprise you even when you think you have a strong line on their play. It is a very bold assumption of you to basically state that he is either bluffing with the bare Kd or has a bigger flush  - there will almost always be some chance that he has a hand that ends up surprising you.

When it comes down to it, this is a pretty easy call based purely on the fact that the pot odds are so good. Do you expect to win this pot? No, of course not... you expect to be beaten more often than you win. But this is not important, because of the price you are getting. As long as you will win this pot more than 27% of the time then you have a profitable call, and folding would be a mistake.

This is why Sean's comment...


... is not the right way of thinking about things. We should very often call on the river expecting to lose the pot more often than we win it. The reason for this is the price we are getting on the call. Imagine you take a bird's eye view of all your river calls throughout your poker career; if you see that you are winning the pot 50% of the time when you call then you are folding far too much! This is a leak.

In my original post ITT I said that when weak players take this line it often means they flopped a very strong hand. I also said I'd still call his river donk, even though I expected to lose more than half the time. Because I would still expect to win more than 27% of the time.

As regards what Lil'Dave says about raising the river... this is not profitable either IMO. Given that my default read on this line from weak players is that we are losing to his river donking range a little more than half the time, it is not possible to consider raise for value. But note that this is based on my default read, which may be wrong. If you feel that you are still ahead of his range then you can consider whether or not you are able to raise for value. And if you determine that you figure to be ahead over 50% of the time when your raise is called then you have a profitable value raise.

Obviously I know this lol i was just being facetious :P

In the OP you said he was, like everyone else capable of wierd shit, you also said that you'd expect a 3bet with AJ preflop, which leads me to believe he's got some level aggression to his game (he might me loose PF and extremely passive down the streets IDK, but its certainly not given the impression of him being a huge rock)

I will agree to disagree with you all on this one.